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The high-resolution forecasting of vegetation type shifts may prove essential in anticipating and mitigating the impacts of future climate change on bird populations. Here, we used the US Forest Service Ecological Response Unit (ERU) classification to develop and assess vegetation-based breeding habitat profiles for eight owl species occurring in the foothills and mountains of the Southwestern US. Shifts in mapped habitat were forecast using an ecosystem vulnerability model based on the pre-1990 climate envelopes of ERUs and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) A1B moderate-emission scenario for the future climate. For five of the eight owl species, the regional breeding habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. Three species, the boreal owl (Aegolius funereus; at the trailing edge of its distribution), flammulated owl (Psiloscops flammeolus), and northern pygmy-owl (Glaucidium gnoma), were projected to experience the steepest habitat loss rates of 85%, 85%, and 76%, respectively. Projected vegetation shifts overlaid with well-documented flammulated owl breeding populations showed the complete or near complete loss of habitat by 2090 in areas of montane forest currently supporting dense aggregations of owl territories. Generalist or lower-elevation owl species were predicted to be less impacted, while, for the whiskered screech-owl (Megascops trichopsis), the contraction of the current habitat was nearly offset by a projected northward expansion. In general, the results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for the upper-elevation forest owls of semi-arid Southwestern North America. Long-distance migration and low natal philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations in adapting to the regional loss of habitat.

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Agroecosystems suffer various ecological risks due to the intensive production of crops. However, comprehensive assessments of cropland ecological risks remain limited. This study developed an assessment method for cropland ecological risks by combining environmental disturbance with ecosystem vulnerability. Environmental disturbance reflects stresses caused by risk sources in an environment, while ecosystem vulnerability is the susceptibility of an ecosystem to adverse disturbances and its capacity to cope and adapt. The proposed method is conducive to understanding the complex exposure-response relationship between croplands and environmental stresses. Cropland ecological risk was evaluated by conducting a case study on a loess dryland region in Shaanxi. The hot spots and driving factors of risk were explored using spatial autocorrelation and quantile regression methods, respectively. Results show that overall cropland ecological risk is at medium low level. Risk hot spots are concentrated in the north of the loess dryland. Ecosystem vulnerability exerts greater effect on the distribution of hot spots than environmental disturbance in the study area. Road density (RDD), river density, and soil organic matter exert the most important effects on cropland ecological risk. Moreover, the same driving factor exhibits various effects on cropland ecological risk in different risk level areas. RDD, slope, precipitation, elevation, fertilizer application rate, gross domestic product, and distance to town center have greater effects on risk in regions with high cropland ecological risk than in regions with low cropland ecological risk. The findings of this study must be considered in formulating targeted policies for controlling cropland ecological risk in loess drylands to realize sustainable crop production.

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Ecosystem vulnerability is an ecological response of the environment to external damage. Studying the influencing factors and spatiotemporal changes of ecosystem vulnerability is helpful to maintain ecological balance. At present, studies on ecosystem vulnerability are relatively homogeneous and rarely integrate climate change and human activities. Based on a habitat-function framework, this study analyzed the response of ecosystem vulnerability on climate change and human activities in the Poyang Lake City Group (PLCG) in 2010, 2015 and 2020. The spatial agglomeration of ecosystem vulnerability has been analyzed by using GeoDa model. The interaction of factors on ecosystem vulnerability have been analyzed by using geographical detector. It can be seen that the ecosystem vulnerability of the PLCG have increased from 2010 to 2020. The impacts of climate change to the ecosystem vulnerability have showed a positive correlation. Meanwhile, the key factors leading to the change of ecological vulnerability are still human activities. This methodology demonstrates a high level of robustness when applied to other research domains. This research is conducive to maintaining the integrity of the ecosystem, realizing the development of man and nature, and promoting the sound and rapid development of economic society.

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Due to increasing population pressure and urbanization, as well as global climate change impacts, many coastal river deltas are experiencing increased exposure, vulnerability and risks linked to natural hazards. Mapping the vulnerability and risk profiles of deltas is critical for developing preparedness, mitigation and adaptation policies and strategies. Current vulnerability and risk assessments focus predominantly on social factors, and typically, do not systematically incorporate a social-ecological systems perspective, which can lead to incomplete assessments. We argue that ecosystem services, which link both ecosystem functions and human well-being, can be used to better characterize the mutual dependencies between society and the environment within risk assessment frameworks. Thus, building on existing vulnerability and risk assessment frameworks, we propose a revised indicator-based framework for social-ecological systems of coastal delta environments, supported by a list of ecosystem service indicators that were identified using a systematic literature review. This improved framework is an effective tool to address the vulnerability and risk in coastal deltas, enabling the assessment of multi-hazard risks to social-ecological systems within and across coastal deltas and allows more targeted development of management measures and policies aimed at reducing risks from natural hazards.

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Protected areas require long-term monitoring to understand the influence and extent of ecosystem stress to inform management and conservation decisions. As long-term data are not always available, paleolimnological methods offer a way of extending our knowledge of past environmental conditions necessary to use as context for remediation. Here, we examine four sediment cores and additional surface sediments from 14 ponds located on Sable Island National Park Reserve Canada (SINPR), where long-term ecological changes and vulnerability to disturbance are not well defined. We develop a paleolimnological approach to assessing environmental vulnerability through the use of biological indicators (Diptera: Chironomidae), where shifts in the environment are inferred by shifts in chironomid assemblages over time. Analysis of surface sediments show four distinct assemblage types reflecting four different habitat conditions; primarily represented by the presence of Glyptotendipes, Chironomus, Microtendipes, and Dicrotendipes. Differences in habitat conditions through time based on these results are then compared to biostratigraphic analysis of sediment cores from four of the ponds. We found that two ponds had large shifts in chironomids assemblages that were associated with changes in habitat over time, while two others that were not as exposed to the influence of erosion and influx of sand dunes did not. Our findings established a baseline of historical change in SINPR, broadening the scope of long-term monitoring, which is essential for defining goals for management and conservation of the ecological integrity of Sable Island.

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Karst desertification control of grasslands balances the ecological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and rural ecological animal husbandry development. In the context of global changes and intensified human activities, the fragility of grassland ecosystems under karst desertification control is becoming increasingly evident, and enhancing the ecological resilience and ecosystem services of grasslands is an issue that urgently needs to be addressed. In this paper, the CNKI literature, WOS core databases and Goolgle scholar were used as search sources, identifying 179 articles related to the study of grassland ecosystem vulnerability and ecological resilience. This research systematically reviewed the progress of grassland ecosystem vulnerability research and analyzed the relationship between grassland ecosystem services (GESs) and grassland ecosystem vulnerability and resilience. The direction of enhancing GESs in karst areas is indicated in terms of the reciprocal feedback, synergistic relationship, and mechanism of action of GESs, vulnerability, and resilience. It is also emphasized that the karst desertification area should provide an ecological foundation for the sustainable development of the regional environment around the supply-and-demand relationship of GESs, the trade-off synergy of service flow, and the enhancement of ecological resilience, thereby consolidating the effectiveness of karst desertification control, enhancing GESs, and helping rural revitalization.

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Ecosystem vulnerability is the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to adverse effects of external disturbances. Exploring the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability and its driving mechanism is important for regional ecological protection and management. A little study has conducted the ecosystem vulnerability assessment from the perspective of multiple ecosystems characteristics, and the spatial heterogeneity impacts of climate change and human activities on ecosystem vulnerability variation need to be further explored. In this study, a habitat-structure-function framework was proposed to evaluate ecosystem vulnerability pattern of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in China from 1990 to 2018. Then, the spatial heterogeneity impacts of various factors on ecosystem vulnerability changes were examined utilizing the Geographically Weighted Regression model. Results show that the ecosystem vulnerability index (EVI) pattern in the YRB decreased from upstream to downstream. There was 63.85% of the basin area experiencing a decline in EVI from 1990 to 2018, which was primarily found in the source, southwest and north regions, while the southeast and east regions have suffered an increase in EVI. The impact of climate change on EVI changes increased as time scales increase, while, human activities were still the dominant factor leading EVI changes. Overall, areas with great impact of climate change on EVI variation were concentrated in the source region and upper reaches, while the remarkable impact of human activities occurred in the whole basin. The enhancement of climate warming and humid trend and the strengthen of ecological protection were benefit to the decline of EVI. The proposed framework can be extended to assess vulnerability in other areas or specific ecosystem types, and the findings are expected to provide policy recommendations for ecosystem conservation and management in the YRB.

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As the "Third Pole", the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is threatened by environmental changes. Ecosystem vulnerability refers to the sensitivity and resilience of ecosystems to external disturbances. However, there is a lack of relevant studies on the driving factors of ecosystem vulnerability. Therefore, based on spatial principal components analysis and geographic detectors methods, this paper evaluates the ecosystem vulnerability and its driving factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the years 2005 to 2015. The results were as follows: (1) The ecosystem vulnerability index (EVI) of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is mainly heavy and extreme, showing a gradually increasing trend from southeast to northwest. (2) The spatial heterogeneity of the EVI is significant in the southeast and northwest, but not in the southwest and central parts. (3) Analysis of influencing factors shows that environmental factors have more significant effects on EVI than socioeconomic variables, facilitating the proposal of adequate policy implications. More efforts should be devoted to ecological protection and restoration to prevent grassland degradation and desertification in the high-EVI areas in northwest. The government is also urged to improve the ecological compensation mechanisms and balance ecological protection and residents' development needs in the southeast.

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Coastal areas are frequently influenced by direct and/or indirect multiple anthropogenic pressures, which impacts marine life. Those perturbations may act in a heterogeneous way with a different intensity and are related to the complexity of coastal ecosystems. To visualize all these interactions at a local scale, a methodology inspired from many researches has been implemented in order to search, identify, and classify coastal ecosystems according to their sensitivity to anthropic pressure exerted by coastal cities. Thus, producing vulnerability maps will be essential tools to local coastal managers. We have applied this methodology on five coastal municipalities in Algiers. Firstly, the environmental sensitivity of coastal ecosystems was assessed by analyzing these four sub-indices: biological sensitivity, geomorphological sensitivity, hydrodynamic characteristics, and pollution intensity. Secondly, an assessment of the anthropogenic pressures presented by each municipality was carried out. Five sub-indexes have been taken into consideration when conducting this assessment: human activities, infrastructures, vectors of pollution, urbanization, and regulatory protection. Then, vulnerability maps were produced by the overlapping of sensitivity and anthropic pressure maps. The results assessed for the environmental vulnerability indicated that most areas are moderately to highly vulnerable, especially in the municipalities of Bab El Oued, Rais Hamidou, and Ain Bénian. The analysis of the obtained results shows the potential applicability of this methodology because they accurately reflect the reality. Therefore, these results can be useful to decision-makers by providing them with a relatively rational decision-making tool to prioritize future management and planning efforts.

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Species are redistributing globally in response to climate warming, impacting ecosystem functions and services. In the Barents Sea, poleward expansion of boreal species and a decreased abundance of Arctic species are causing a rapid borealization of the Arctic communities. This borealization might have profound consequences on the Arctic food web by creating novel feeding interactions between previously non co-occurring species. An early identification of new feeding links is crucial to predict their ecological impact. However, detection by traditional approaches, including stomach content and isotope analyses, although fundamental, cannot cope with the speed of change observed in the region, nor with the urgency of understanding the consequences of species redistribution for the marine ecosystem. In this study, we used an extensive food web (metaweb) with nearly 2,500 documented feeding links between 239 taxa coupled with a trait data set to predict novel feeding interactions and to quantify their potential impact on Arctic food web structure. We found that feeding interactions are largely determined by the body size of interacting species, although species foraging habitat and metabolic type are also important predictors. Further, we found that all boreal species will have at least one potential resource in the Arctic region should they redistribute therein. During 2014-2017, 11 boreal species were observed in the Arctic region of the Barents Sea. These incoming species, which are all generalists, change the structural properties of the Arctic food web by increasing connectance and decreasing modularity. In addition, these boreal species are predicted to initiate novel feeding interactions with the Arctic residents, which might amplify their impact on Arctic food web structure affecting ecosystem functioning and vulnerability. Under the ongoing species redistribution caused by environmental change, we propose merging a trait-based approach with ecological network analysis to efficiently predict the impacts of range-shifting species on food webs.

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Temperate European forests are currently largely under attack by the infection with Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, a fungal pathogen introduced from Asia since at least the early 1990s and causing a major dieback of common ash (Fraxinus excelsior) throughout Europe. At present, ash dieback evokes major problems for forestry, in particular in sensitive forest remnants in Northern Germany, where the disease causes serious concerns for ecosystem conservation. This makes ash dieback a focal area of ecological research. In the present study, we quantified the extent of ash dieback in adult and in young ash trees in Northern Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, in relation to community composition and associated biotic and abiotic factors. Data collection was carried out in 37 plots in communities of ash-rich forests and included floristic inventory, rating of adult and young ash individuals and recording of light and soil conditions. Data were analyzed using non-metric multidimensional scaling and general linear mixed effects models. Forest type was the strongest significant predictor for variation in crown defoliation of adult ash trees. Damage was highest in communities of wet alder-ash forests and lowest in ash-rich beech forests. A further significant predictor of adult crown defoliation was individual height of the ash tree with larger trees being less affected than smaller ones. For juveniles, total species richness displayed a significant positive relationship with the proportional abundance of fungal infection, while the mean damage proportion per individual significantly increased with increasing relative light intensity in the understorey. The study clearly shows a strong relationship between forest type and ecosystem vulnerability to ash dieback. In particular, communities belonging to the species-rich wet alder-ash forests were most severely affected by ash disease, thereby deserving special attention among the vulnerable fragmented forest remnants in Schleswig-Holstein. Co-varying factors, however, seem to differ between juvenile and adult trees, hinting at the relative importance of tree performance for the adult trees and abiotic conditions for the juveniles. Accounting for such differences along a larger ecological gradient of ash forest communities will be necessary to more comprehensively understand effects of ash dieback on the ecosystem and needs to be addressed in future research.

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Southwestern China is one of the most important areas for global biodiversity conservation. Under the background of global climate change, the vulnerability of this area has showed an increasing trend. According to the IPCC concept of vulnerability, we calculated the spatial distribution of ecosystem's vulnerability in southwestern China based on gross primary productivity (GPP) and then analyzed the spatial variation of different levels of vulnerability. Besides, we analyzed the relationship between environmental factors and ecosystem vulnerability, including precipitation, temperature, altitude, slope and vegetation type. The results showed that ecosystem vulnerability in the southwestern China gradually increased from southeast to northwest, with most area within the region being slight and mild vulnerable area (together occupied 69% of the total). The vulnerability level decreased with the increasing of mean annual precipitation and temperature but increased with increasing elevation and slope. Karst area in southwest and borders between farming and ranging regions in northwest Mountain ecotone of the study area had higher vulnerability, being more easily affected by climate change or other disturbances. The vulnerabilities of needle-leaved forest, grassland, and shrubland were relatively higher than other vegetation types, with the potential to be more easily affected by climate change.

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Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

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Successful germination and seedling emergence in new environments are crucial first steps in the life history of global plant invaders and thus play a key role in processes of range expansion. We examined the germination and seedling emergence success of three global plant invaders - Lupinus polyphyllus, Senecio inaequidens and Verbascum thapsus - in greenhouses and climate chambers under climate regimes corresponding to seven eco-regions. Seed materials were collected from one non-native population for L. polyphyllus and S. inaequidens, and from 12 populations for V. thapsus (six natives and six non-natives). Experimental climates had significant effects on species responses. No species germinated in the dry (humidity ≤ 50%) and cool (≤ 5 °C) experimental climates. But all species germinated and emerged in two moderately cool (12-19 °C) and in three warm (24-27 °C) experimental climates. In general, V. thapsus showed higher fitness than S. inaequidens and L. polyphyllus. The climate of the seed source region influenced responses of native and non-native populations of V. thapsus. Non-native populations of V. thapsus, originating from the warmer seed source, showed higher performance in warm experimental climates and lower performance in moderately cool experimental climates compared to native populations. Responses of V. thapsus populations were also related to precipitation of the seed source region in moderately dry experimental climates. The warm, semi-arid and humid experimental climates are suitable for the crucial first steps of invasion success for L. polyphyllus, S. inaequidens and V. thapsus. The species adaptation to its source region modified the responses of our studied plants under different experimental climates representing major eco-regions of the world.

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Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central-southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid-century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies.

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Environmental quality standards (EQS) specify the maximum permissible concentration or level of a specific environmental stressor. Here, a procedure is proposed to derive EQS that are specific to a representative species pool and conditional on confounding environmental factors. To illustrate the procedure, a dataset was used with plant species richness observations of grasslands and forests and accompanying soil nitrate-N and pH measurements collected from 981 sampling sites in the Netherlands. Species richness was related to soil nitrate-N and pH with quantile regression allowing for interaction effects. The resulting regression models were used to derive EQS for nitrate conditional on pH, quantified as the nitrate-N concentrations at a specific pH level corresponding with a species richness equal to 95% of the species pool, for both grasslands and forest communities. The EQS varied between 1.8 mg/kg nitrate-N at pH 9-65 mg/kg nitrate-N at pH 4. EQS for forests and grasslands were similar, but EQS based on Red List species richness were considerably lower (more stringent) than those based on overall species richness, particularly at high pH levels. The results indicate that both natural background pH conditions and Red List species are important factors to consider in the derivation of EQS for soil nitrate-N for terrestrial ecosystems.

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Globally, ecosystems are subjected to prolonged droughts and extreme heat events, leading to forest die-offs and dominance shifts in vegetation. Some scientists and managers view soil as the main resource to be considered in monitoring ecosystem responses to aridification. As the medium through which precipitation is received, stored, and redistributed for plant use, soil is an important factor in the sensitivity of ecosystems to a drying climate. This study presents a novel approach to evaluating where on a landscape soils may be most sensitive to drying, making them less resilient to disturbance, and where potential future vegetation changes could lead to such disturbance. The drying and devegetation of arid lands can increase wind erosion, contributing to aerosol and dust emissions. This has implications for air quality, human health, and water resources. This approach combines soil data with vegetation simulations, projecting future vegetation change, to create maps of potential areas of concern for soil sensitivity and dust production in a drying climate. Consistent with recent observations, the projections show shifts from grasslands and woodlands to shrublands in much of the southwestern region. An increase in forested area occurs, but shifts in the dominant types and spatial distribution of the forests also are seen. A net increase in desert ecosystems in the region and some changes in alpine and tundra ecosystems are seen. Approximately 124,000 km(2) of soils flagged as "sensitive" are projected to have vegetation change between 2041 and 2050, and 82,927 km(2) of soils may become sensitive because of future vegetation changes. These maps give managers a way to visualize and identify where soils and vegetation should be investigated and monitored for degradation in a drying climate, so restoration and mitigation strategies can be focused in these areas.

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Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services.

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People depend on benefits provided by ecological systems. Understanding how these ecosystem services - and the ecosystem properties underpinning them - respond to drivers of change is therefore an urgent priority. We address this challenge through developing a novel risk-assessment framework that integrates ecological and evolutionary perspectives on functional traits to determine species' effects on ecosystems and their tolerance of environmental changes. We define Specific Effect Function (SEF) as the per-gram or per capita capacity of a species to affect an ecosystem property, and Specific Response Function (SRF) as the ability of a species to maintain or enhance its population as the environment changes. Our risk assessment is based on the idea that the security of ecosystem services depends on how effects (SEFs) and tolerances (SRFs) of organisms - which both depend on combinations of functional traits - correlate across species and how they are arranged on the species' phylogeny. Four extreme situations are theoretically possible, from minimum concern when SEF and SRF are neither correlated nor show a phylogenetic signal, to maximum concern when they are negatively correlated (i.e., the most important species are the least tolerant) and phylogenetically patterned (lacking independent backup). We illustrate the assessment with five case studies, involving both plant and animal examples. However, the extent to which the frequency of the four plausible outcomes, or their intermediates, apply more widely in real-world ecological systems is an open question that needs empirical evidence, and suggests a research agenda at the interface of evolutionary biology and ecosystem ecology.