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Background and Aim: Sevoflurane, a preferred anaesthetic for children, exhibits a dose-dependent reduction in intraocular pressure (IOP). However, consensus is lacking regarding optimal end-tidal sevoflurane concentration for safe IOP measurement. This study aimed to identify the concentration at which IOP measurement could be attempted without inducing movements in paediatric patients after inhalational induction. Methods: Two paediatric groups (1-12 months and 12-36 months) with glaucoma undergoing examination under anaesthesia were recruited. After induction with 8% sevoflurane and 100% oxygen, the first child had an end-tidal sevoflurane concentration maintained at 2% for 4 min, followed by IOP measurement. Success was defined as 'no movement', and subsequent concentrations (adjusted in 0.2% steps) were determined using the Dixon and Massey method based on the previous patient's responses. Results: The study included 75 children. The effective concentration of sevoflurane causing 'no movement' during IOP measurement in 50% of the study population for successful IOP measurement was 1.98% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.63, 2.17, P = 0.017) for 1-12 months group and 0.55% (95% CI 0.39, 0.66, P = 0.002) for 12-36 months group. Probit regression analysis yielded effective concentration of sevoflurane causing 'no movement' during IOP measurement in 95% of the study population values of 2.47% (95% CI 2.24, 4.58, P = 0.017) for 1-12 months group and 0.94% (95% CI 0.78, 1.57, P = 0.002) for 12-36 months group. Conclusion: In paediatric patients, a higher end-tidal sevoflurane concentration of 2% is needed for IOP measurement in 1-12 months age group compared to 0.5% required in 12-36 months age group, achieving success in 50% of the study population.

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BACKGROUND: Teverelix drug product (DP) is a novel injectable gonadotropin-releasing hormone antagonist. METHODS: An adaptive phase 2, open-label, multicenter trial was conducted in patients with advanced prostate cancer to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a combined subcutaneous (SC) and intramuscular (IM) loading dose regimen of teverelix DP of 120 mg SC + 120 mg IM (Group 1; N = 9) or 180 mg SC + 180 mg IM (Group 2; N = 41) administered at a single visit, followed by 6-weekly SC maintenance doses of 120 mg (Group 1) or 180 mg (Group 2), up to Day 168. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients achieving castration levels with serum testosterone <0.5 ng/mL at Day 28 with a target castration rate of 90%. Injection sites were inspected by the investigator at every visit and reactions (ISRs) were proactively recorded. RESULTS: The target castration rate was reached in Group 2 (97.5%) but not in Group 1 (62.5%). The castration rates were not maintained to Day 42 (Group 2: 82.5%; Group 1: 50.0%). Suppression of testosterone to castrate levels occurred rapidly (median time: 2 days for both groups). Suppression of testosterone, prostate-specific antigen, follicle-stimulating hormone, and luteinizing hormone was sustained throughout the treatment period, being more prominent with the higher dose. The adverse event (AE) profile was similar between groups. The most common AEs were injection-site induration (n = 40: 80.0%), injection-site erythema (n = 35: 70.0%), and hot flush (n = 21: 42.0%). Most ISRs were Grade 1. CONCLUSION: Overall, the teverelix DP doses were generally well-tolerated but did not adequately maintain castration levels.

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Multiple phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for pharmacologic interventions in traumatic brain injury (TBI) have failed despite promising results in experimental models. The heterogeneity of TBI, in terms of pathomechanisms and impacted brain structures, likely contributes to these failures. Biomarkers have been recommended to identify patients with relevant pathology (predictive biomarkers) and confirm target engagement and monitor therapy response (pharmacodynamic biomarkers). Our group focuses on traumatic cerebrovascular injury as an understudied endophenotype of TBI and is validating a predictive and pharmacodynamic imaging biomarker (cerebrovascular reactivity; CVR) in moderate-severe TBI. We aim to extend these studies to milder forms of TBI to determine the optimal dose of sildenafil for maximal improvement in CVR. We will conduct a phase II dose-finding study involving 160 chronic TBI patients (mostly mild) using three doses of sildenafil, a phosphodiesterase-5 (PDE-5) inhibitor. The study measures baseline CVR and evaluates the effect of escalating sildenafil doses on CVR improvement. A 4-week trial of thrice daily sildenafil will assess safety, tolerability, and clinical efficacy. This dual-site 4-year study, funded by the Department of Defense and registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05782244), plans to launch in June 2023. Biomarker-informed RCTs are essential for developing effective TBI interventions, relying on an understanding of underlying pathomechanisms. Traumatic microvascular injury (TMVI) is an attractive mechanism which can be targeted by vaso-active drugs such as PDE-5 inhibitors. CVR is a potential predictive and pharmacodynamic biomarker for targeted interventions aimed at TMVI. (Trial registration: NCT05782244, ClinicalTrials.gov ).

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BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Its symptoms range from mild to severe, with the latter often being life-threatening. This study aims to assess the effects of low-dose dexamethasone (DEX) in mild-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia and examine the final clinical outcomes to identify the optimal therapeutic dose. METHODS: Clinical data from 132 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia between January and October 2021 at Yamato Municipal Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Based on the ratio of peripheral arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2) to inspired fraction of oxygen (FiO2), patients were categorized into the mild (>450, n = 65), moderate (315-450, n = 55), and severe (<315, n = 12) pneumonia groups. The event of interest was defined as the worsening of the patient's condition during treatment (need to increase FiO2 > 0.1). Patients were treated with low-dose DEX (6.6 mg/day) for 10 days. RESULTS: The event-free survival rate decreased significantly in patients with severe pneumonia compared with in those with mild and moderate pneumonia (Bonferroni-adjusted p < 0.02). A total of 16 patients were treated with high-dose corticosteroids because of severe hypoxia. Recovery was observed in all discharged patients with respiratory condition improvement. Low SpO2/FiO2 at admission was significantly associated with serum C-reactive protein levels. CONCLUSIONS: For Japanese patients with COVID-19, severe pneumonia, and SpO2/FiO2 of <315, it may be necessary to administer a dose of corticosteroids of >6.6 mg DEX.

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Sample sizes of Phase 2 dose-finding studies, usually determined based on a power requirement to detect a significant dose-response relationship, will generally not provide adequate precision for Phase 3 target dose selection. We propose to calculate the sample size of a dose-finding study based on the probability of successfully identifying the target dose within an acceptable range (e.g., 80%-120% of the target) using the multiple comparison and modeling procedure (MCP-Mod). With the proposed approach, different design options for the Phase 2 dose-finding study can also be compared. Due to inherent uncertainty around an assumed true dose-response relationship, sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the sample size calculations to deviations from modeling assumptions are recommended. Planning for a hypothetical Phase 2 dose-finding study is used to illustrate the main points. Codes for the proposed approach is available at https://github.com/happysundae/posMCPMod.

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Friedreich's ataxia (FA) is a life-threatening autosomal recessive disorder characterized by neurological and cardiac dysfunction. Arrhythmias and heart failure are the main cause of premature death. From prior studies in murine models of FA, adeno-associated virus encoding the normal human frataxin gene (AAVrh.10hFXN) effectively treated the cardiac manifestations of the disease. However, the therapeutic dose window is limited by high level of human frataxin (hFXN) gene expression associated with toxicity. As a therapeutic goal, since FA heterozygotes have no clinical manifestations of FA, we estimated the level of frataxin (FXN) necessary to convert the heart of a homozygote to that of a heterozygote. In noncardiac cells, FA heterozygotes have 30-80% of normal FXN levels (17.7-47.2 ng/mg, average 32.5 ng/mg) and FA homozygotes 2-30% normal levels (1.2-17.7 ng/mg, average 9.4 ng/mg). Therefore, an AAV vector would need to augment endogenous in an FA homozygote by >8.3 ng/mg. To determine the required dose of AAVrh.10hFXN, we administered 1.8 × 1011, 5.7 × 1011, or 1.8 × 1012 gc/kg of AAVrh.10hFXN intravenously (IV) to muscle creatine kinase (mck)-Cre conditional knockout Fxn mice, a cardiac and skeletal FXN knockout model. The minimally effective dose was 5.7 × 1011 gc/kg, resulting in cardiac hFXN levels of 6.1 ± 4.2 ng/mg and a mild (p < 0.01 compared with phosphate-buffered saline controls) improvement in mortality. A dose of 1.8 × 1012 gc/kg resulted in cardiac hFXN levels of 33.7 ± 6.4 ng/mg, a significant improvement in ejection fraction and fractional shortening (p < 0.05, both comparisons) and a 21.5% improvement in mortality (p < 0.001). To determine if the significantly effective dose of 1.8 × 1012 gc/kg could achieve human FA heterozygote levels in a large animal, this dose was administered IV to nonhuman primates. After 12 weeks, the vector-expressed FXN in the heart was 17.8 ± 4.9 ng/mg, comparable to the target human levels. These data identify both minimally and significantly effective therapeutic doses that are clinically relevant for the treatment of the cardiac manifestations of FA.

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BACKGROUND: Long-acting reversible contraceptives, including hormonal levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine systems, are the most effective methods of reversible contraception. However, unfavorable bleeding, particularly during the first months of use, is one of the most important reasons for discontinuation or avoidance. Minimizing this as early as possible would be highly beneficial. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs inhibiting prostaglandin synthesis are known to reduce bleeding and pain at time of menses. A levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system has been developed with an additional reservoir containing indomethacin, designed to be released during the initial postplacement period. OBJECTIVE: This proof-of-concept study aimed to establish whether the addition of indomethacin to the currently available levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (average in vivo levonorgestrel release rate of 8 µg/24 h during the first year of use) reduces the number of bleeding and spotting days during the first 90 days of use compared with the unmodified system. The dose-finding analysis included 3 doses of indomethacin-low (6.5 mg), middle (12.5 mg), and high (15.4 mg)-to determine the ideal dose of indomethacin to reduce bleeding and spotting days with minimal side-effects. STUDY DESIGN: This was a multicenter, single-blinded, randomized, controlled phase II trial conducted between June 2018 and June 2019 at 6 centers in Europe. Three indomethacin dose-ranging treatment groups (low-, middle-, and high-dose indomethacin/levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system) were compared with the unmodified levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system group, with participants randomized in a 1:1:1:1 ratio. The primary outcome was the number of uterine bleeding and spotting days over a 90-day reference (treatment) period. Secondary outcomes were the number of women showing endometrial histology expected for intrauterine levonorgestrel application and the frequency of treatment-emergent adverse events. Point estimates and 2-sided 90% credible intervals were calculated for mean and median differences between treatment groups and the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system without indomethacin. Point and interval estimates were determined using a Bayesian analysis. RESULTS: A total of 174 healthy, premenopausal women, aged 18 to 45 years, were randomized, with 160 women eligible for the per-protocol analysis set. Fewer bleeding and spotting days were observed in the 90-day reference period for the 3 indomethacin/levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system dose groups than for the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system without indomethacin group. The largest reduction in bleeding and spotting days was achieved with low-dose indomethacin/levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system, which demonstrated a point estimate difference of -32% (90% credible interval, -45% to -19%) compared with levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system without indomethacin. Differences for high- and middle-dose indomethacin/levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system groups relative to levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system without indomethacin were -19% and -16%, respectively. Overall, 97 women (58.1%) experienced a treatment-emergent adverse event considered related to the study drug, with similar incidence across all treatment groups including the unmodified levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system. These were all mild or moderate in intensity, with 6 leading to discontinuation. Endometrial biopsy findings were consistent with effects expected for the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system. CONCLUSION: All 3 doses of indomethacin substantially reduced the number of bleeding and spotting days in the first 90 days after placement of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system, thus providing proof of concept. Adding indomethacin to the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system can reduce the number of bleeding and spotting days in the initial 90 days postplacement, without affecting the safety profile, and potentially improving patient acceptability and satisfaction.

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Recently, model-assisted designs, including the Bayesian optimal interval (BOIN) design with optimal thresholds to determine the dose for the next cohort, have been proposed for cancer phase I studies. Model-assisted designs are useful because of their good performance as model-based designs in addition to their algorithm-based simplicity. In BOIN, escalation and de-escalation based on boundaries can be understood as a type of change point detection based on a sequential test procedure. Notably, the sequential test procedure is used in a wide range of fields and is known for its application to control charts, statistical monitoring methods used for detecting abnormalities in manufacturing processes. In control charts, abnormalities are detected if the control chart statistics are observed to be outside of the optimal boundaries. The cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic, which is developed for control chart applications, derives higher power under the same erroneous judgment rate. Hence, it is expected that a more efficient model-assisted design can be achieved by the application of CUSUM statistics. In this study, a model-assisted design based on the CUSUM statistic is proposed. In the proposed design, the dose for the next cohort is decided by CUSUM statistics calculated from the counts of the dose-limiting toxicity and pre-defined boundaries, based on the CUSUM control chart scheme. Intensive simulation shows that our proposed method performs better than BOIN, and other representative model-assisted designs, including modified toxicity probability interval (mTPI) and Keyboard, in terms of controlling over-dosing rates while maintaining similar performance in the determination of maximum tolerated dose.

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We introduce a Bayesian optimization method for estimating the maximum tolerated dose in this article. A number of parametric model-based methods have been proposed to estimate the maximum tolerated dose; however, parametric model-based methods need an assumption that dose-toxicity relationships follow specific theoretical models. This assumption potentially leads to suboptimal dose selections if the dose-toxicity curve is misspecified. Our proposed method is based on a Bayesian optimization framework for finding a global optimizer of unknown functions that are expensive to evaluate while using very few function evaluations. It models dose-toxicity relationships with a nonparametric model; therefore, a more flexible estimation can be realized compared with existing parametric model-based methods. Also, most existing methods rely on point estimates of dose-toxicity curves in their dose selections. In contrast, our proposed method exploits a probabilistic model for an unknown function to determine the next dose candidate without ignoring the uncertainty of posterior while imposing some dose-escalation limitations. We investigate the operating characteristics of our proposed method by comparing them with those of the Bayesian-based continual reassessment method and two different nonparametric methods. Simulation results suggest that our proposed method works successfully in terms of selections of the maximum tolerated dose correctly and safe dose allocations.

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BACKGROUND: Classical phase 1 dose-finding designs based on a single toxicity endpoint to assess the maximum tolerated dose were initially developed in the context of cytotoxic drugs. With the emergence of molecular targeted agents and immunotherapies, the concept of optimal biological dose (OBD) was subsequently introduced to account for efficacy in addition to toxicity. The objective was therefore to provide an overview of published phase 1 cancer clinical trials relying on the concept of OBD. METHODS: We performed a systematic review through a computerized search of the MEDLINE database to identify early phase cancer clinical trials that relied on OBD. Relevant publications were selected based on a two-step process by two independent readers. Relevant information (phase, type of therapeutic agents, objectives, endpoints and dose-finding design) were collected. RESULTS: We retrieved 37 articles. OBD was clearly mentioned as a trial objective (primary or secondary) for 22 articles and was traditionally defined as the smallest dose maximizing an efficacy criterion such as biological target: biological response, immune cells count for immunotherapies, or biological cell count for targeted therapies. Most trials considered a binary toxicity endpoint defined in terms of the proportion of patients who experienced a dose-limiting toxicity. Only two articles relied on an adaptive dose escalation design. CONCLUSIONS: In practice, OBD should be a primary objective for the assessment of the recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D) for a targeted therapy or immunotherapy phase I cancer trial. Dose escalation designs have to be adapted accordingly to account for both efficacy and toxicity.

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BACKGROUND: We investigated the efficacy and safety of apararenone (MT-3995), a non-steroidal compound with mineralocorticoid receptor agonist activity, in patients with stage 2 diabetic nephropathy (DN). METHODS: The study had two parts: a dose-response, parallel-group, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter, phase 2, 24-week study and an open-label, uncontrolled, 28-week extension study. Primary and secondary endpoints were the 24-week percent change from baseline in urine albumin to creatine ratio (UACR) and 24- and 52-week UACR remission rates. Safety parameters were changes from baseline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and serum potassium at 24 and 52 weeks, and incidences of adverse events (AEs) and adverse drug reactions (ADRs). RESULTS: In the dose-response period, 73 patients received placebo and 73, 74, and 73 received apararenone 2.5 mg, 5 mg, and 10 mg, respectively. As a percentage of baseline, mean UACR decreased to 62.9%, 50.8%, and 46.5% in the 2.5 mg, 5 mg, and 10 mg apararenone groups, respectively, at week 24 (placebo: 113.7% at week 24; all P < 0.001 vs placebo). UACR remission rates at week 24 were 0.0%, 7.8%, 29.0%, and 28.1% in the placebo and apararenone 2.5 mg, 5 mg, and 10 mg groups, respectively. eGFR tended to decrease and serum potassium tended to increase, but these events were not clinically significant. AE incidence increased with dose while ADR incidence did not. CONCLUSION: The UACR-lowering effect of apararenone administered once daily for 24 weeks in patients with stage 2 DN was confirmed, and the 52-week administration was safe and tolerable. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02517320 (dose-response study) and NCT02676401 (extension study).

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BACKGROUND/AIMS: Dose-escalation studies are essential in the early stages of developing novel treatments, when the aim is to find a safe dose for administration in humans. Despite their great importance, many dose-escalation studies use study designs based on heuristic algorithms with well-documented drawbacks. Bayesian decision procedures provide a design alternative that is conceptually simple and methodologically sound, but very rarely used in practice, at least in part due to their perceived statistical complexity. There are currently very few easily accessible software implementations that would facilitate their application. METHODS: We have created MoDEsT, a free and easy-to-use web application for designing and conducting single-agent dose-escalation studies with a binary toxicity endpoint, where the objective is to estimate the maximum tolerated dose. MoDEsT uses a well-established Bayesian decision procedure based on logistic regression. The software has a user-friendly point-and-click interface, makes changes visible in real time, and automatically generates a range of graphs, tables, and reports. It is aimed at clinicians as well as statisticians with limited expertise in model-based dose-escalation designs, and does not require any statistical programming skills to evaluate the operating characteristics of, or implement, the Bayesian dose-escalation design. RESULTS: MoDEsT comes in two parts: a 'Design' module to explore design options and simulate their operating characteristics, and a 'Conduct' module to guide the dose-finding process throughout the study. We illustrate the practical use of both modules with data from a real phase I study in terminal cancer. CONCLUSION: Enabling both methodologists and clinicians to understand and apply model-based study designs with ease is a key factor towards their routine use in early-phase studies. We hope that MoDEsT will enable incorporation of Bayesian decision procedures for dose escalation at the earliest stage of clinical trial design, thus increasing their use in early-phase trials.

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INTRODUCTION: Proper administration timing, dose-intensity, efficacy/toxicity ratio of triplet docetaxel (DTX), 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), and oxaliplatin (OXP) should be improved to safely perform three-drugs intensive first line in advanced gastric cancer (GC). This dose-finding study investigated recommended 5-FU and OXP doses, safety of triplet regimen and preliminary activity. METHODS: Schedule: 12h-timed-flat-infusion 5-FU 700-1000 mg/m2/d 1-2, 8-9, 15-16, 22-23, with 100 mg/m2/d increase for dose level; DTX 50 mg/m2 d 1, 15 fixed dose, OXP at three increasing dose-levels 60-70-80 mg/m2 d 8, 22, every 4 weeks. Intra- and inter-patients dose-escalation was planned. RESULTS: Ten fit <75 years patients were enrolled: median age 59; young-elderly 4 (40%). From first to fifth dose level, 5 patients (1 per cohort) were enrolled according to intra-patient dose escalation, no dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) were reported. At sixth level, 1 DLT, G2 diarrhea, was reported, thus other 2 patients were enrolled, DLT 1/3 patients (33%). Maximum tolerated dose (MTD) was not reached. 5-FU and OXP recommended doses (RD) were 1000 mg/m2/d and 80 mg/m2, respectively. To confirm RD, other 3 patients were enrolled, without DLT. Cumulative G3-4 toxicities were: neutropenia 50%, leucopenia 20%, hypoalbuminemia 10%, mucositis 10%, asthenia 20%. Limiting toxicity syndromes were 30%, 25% in young-elderly, all multiple site. Objective response rate intent-to-treat 60%, disease control rate 90%. After 15 months follow-up, progression-free and overall survival, 6 and 17 months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: First line intensive FD/FOx regimen adding DXT/5-FU/OXP can be safely administered at recommended doses in advanced GC, with promising high activity and efficacy.

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OBJECTIVE Chemonucleolysis with condoliase has the potential to be a new, less invasive therapeutic option for patients with lumbar disc herniation (LDH). The aim of the present study was to determine the most suitable therapeutic dose of condoliase. METHODS Patients between 20 and 70 years of age with unilateral leg pain, positive findings on the straight leg raise test, and LDH were recruited. All eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive condoliase (1.25, 2.5, or 5 U) or placebo. The primary end point was a change in the worst leg pain from preadministration (baseline) to week 13. The secondary end points were changes from baseline in the following items: worst back pain, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), SF-36, and neurological examination. For pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analyses, plasma condoliase concentrations and serum keratan sulfate concentrations were measured. The safety end points were adverse events (AEs) and radiographic and MRI parameters. Data on leg pain, back pain, abnormal neurological findings, and imaging parameters were collected until week 52. RESULTS A total of 194 patients received an injection of condoliase or placebo. The mean change in worst leg pain from baseline to week 13 was -31.7 mm (placebo), -46.7 mm (1.25 U), -41.1 mm (2.5 U), and -47.6 mm (5 U). The differences were significant at week 13 in the 1.25-U group (-14.9 mm; 95% CI -28.4 to -1.4 mm; p = 0.03) and 5-U group (-15.9 mm; 95% CI -29.0 to -2.7 mm; p = 0.01) compared with the placebo group. The dose-response improvement in the worst leg pain at week 13 was not significant (p = 0.14). The decrease in the worst leg pain in all 3 condoliase groups was observed from week 1 through week 52. Regarding the other end points, the worst back pain and results of the straight leg raise test, ODI, and SF-36 showed a tendency for sustained improvement in each of the condoliase groups until week 52. In all patients at all time points, plasma condoliase concentrations were below the detectable limit (< 100 µU/ml). Serum keratan sulfate concentrations significantly increased from baseline to 6 hours and 6 weeks after administration in all 3 condoliase groups. No patient died or developed anaphylaxis or neurological sequelae. Five serious AEs occurred in 5 patients (3 patients in the condoliase groups and 2 patients in the placebo group), resolved, and were considered unrelated to the investigational drug. Severe AEs occurred in 10 patients in the condoliase groups and resolved or improved. In the condoliase groups, back pain was the most frequent AE. Modic type 1 change and decrease in disc height were frequent imaging findings. Dose-response relationships were observed for the incidence of adverse drug reactions and decrease in disc height. CONCLUSIONS Condoliase significantly improved clinical symptoms in patients with LDH and was well tolerated. While all 3 doses had similar efficacy, the incidence of adverse drug reactions and decrease in disc height were dose dependent, thereby suggesting that 1.25 U would be the recommended clinical dose of condoliase. Clinical trial registration no.: NCT00634946 (clinicaltrials.gov).

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Phase II clinical trials are conducted to determine the optimal dose of the study drug for use in Phase III clinical trials while also balancing efficacy and safety. In conducting these trials, it may be important to consider subpopulations of patients grouped by background factors such as drug metabolism and kidney and liver function. Determining the optimal dose, as well as maximizing the effectiveness of the study drug by analyzing patient subpopulations, requires a complex decision-making process. In extreme cases, drug development has to be terminated due to inadequate efficacy or severe toxicity. Such a decision may be based on a particular subpopulation. We propose a Bayesian utility approach (BUART) to randomized Phase II clinical trials which uses a first-order bivariate normal dynamic linear model for efficacy and safety in order to determine the optimal dose and study population in a subsequent Phase III clinical trial. We carried out a simulation study under a wide range of clinical scenarios to evaluate the performance of the proposed method in comparison with a conventional method separately analyzing efficacy and safety in each patient population. The proposed method showed more favorable operating characteristics in determining the optimal population and dose.

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Population model-based (pharmacometric) approaches are widely used for the analyses of phase IIb clinical trial data to increase the accuracy of the dose selection for phase III clinical trials. On the other hand, if the analysis is based on one selected model, model selection bias can potentially spoil the accuracy of the dose selection process. In this paper, four methods that assume a number of pre-defined model structure candidates, for example a set of dose-response shape functions, and then combine or select those candidate models are introduced. The key hypothesis is that by combining both model structure uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty using these methodologies, we can make a more robust model based dose selection decision at the end of a phase IIb clinical trial. These methods are investigated using realistic simulation studies based on the study protocol of an actual phase IIb trial for an oral asthma drug candidate (AZD1981). Based on the simulation study, it is demonstrated that a bootstrap model selection method properly avoids model selection bias and in most cases increases the accuracy of the end of phase IIb decision. Thus, we recommend using this bootstrap model selection method when conducting population model-based decision-making at the end of phase IIb clinical trials.

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AIM: To determine the optimal effective and safe dose of sublingual immunotherapy tablets containing carbamylated monomeric allergoids in patients with grass pollen-induced allergic rhinoconjunctivitis. METHODS: In this prospective, randomized, double-blind, active-controlled, multicenter, Phase II study, four different daily doses were applied preseasonally for 12 weeks. RESULTS: Of 158 randomized adults, 155 subjects (safety population) received 300 units of allergy (UA)/day (n = 36), 600 UA/day (n = 43), 1000 UA/day (n = 39), or 2000 UA/day (n = 37). After treatment, 54.3, 47.6, 59.0 and 51.4% of patients, respectively, ceased to react to the highest allergen concentration in a conjunctival provocation test. Furthermore, the response threshold improved in 70.4, 62.9, 76.7 and 66.7% of patients, respectively. No serious adverse events occurred. CONCLUSION: This study found 1000 UA/day to be the optimal effective and safe dose.

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OBJECTIVE: To investigate the efficacy and safety of increasing doses of cathine (nor-pseudoephedrine) as a weight-lowering agent in patients with obesity. METHODS: Overweight and obese patients (n = 241, mean BMI 34.6 ± 3.4 kg/m²) were randomly allocated to one of three doses of cathine (16 mg, 32 mg, 53.3 mg) or placebo in addition to a multimodal lifestyle intervention program in a multicenter, double-blind, controlled, dose-finding study for 24 weeks. Primary outcome was weight loss. RESULTS: Treatment with the 3 doses of cathine resulted in a significantly greater weight loss compared to placebo over 24 weeks: 6.5 ± 4.2 kg for 16 mg cathine, 6.2 ± 4.7 kg for 32 mg cathine, and 9.1 ± 5.4 kg for 53.3 mg cathine versus 2.4 ± 4.4 kg for placebo (each p < 0.01, ANCOVA). The percentage of patients losing > 5% / >10% of initial body weight was significantly greater for all doses of cathine than for placebo (each p < 0.01, chi-square test). Heart rate increased dose-dependently (by 1.2 bpm under 16 mg, 5.8 bpm under 32 mg, and 6.2 bpm under 53.3 mg cathine), but no suspected unexpected serious adverse reactions were noted. The overall dropout rate was 24.9%, with the highest rate in the placebo group (42.3%). CONCLUSION: Cathine appears to be an effective weight-lowering agent for adjunct treatment of obesity, but additional clinical studies on its efficacy and safety are required.

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BACKGROUND: In sublingual immunotherapy, optimal doses are a key factor for therapeutic outcomes. The aim of this study with tablets containing carbamylated monomeric house dust mite allergoids was to determine the most effective and safe dose. METHODS: In this double-blind, placebo-controlled dose-finding study, 131 patients with house dust mite-induced allergic rhinoconjunctivitis were randomized to 12-week treatments with 300 UA/day, 1000 UA/day, 2000 UA/day, 3000 UA/day or placebo. Conjunctival provocation tests (CPT) were performed before, during and after treatment. The change in mean allergic severity (primary endpoint), calculated from the severity of the CPT reaction, and the proportion of patients with an improved CPT threshold (secondary endpoint) determined the treatment effect. RESULTS: The mean allergic severity decreased in all groups, including the placebo group. It was lower in all active treatment groups (300 UA/day: 0.14, 1000 UA/day: 0.15, 2000 UA/day: 0.10, 3000 UA/day: 0.15) than in the placebo group (0.30). However, this difference was not statistically significant (P < 0.1). The percentage of patients with an improved CPT threshold was higher in the active treatment groups (300 UA/day: 73.9%; 1000 UA/day: 76.0%; 2000 UA/day: 88.5%; 3000 UA/day: 76.0%) than in the placebo group (64.3%). The difference between placebo and 2000 UA/day was statistically significant (P = 0.04). In 13 (10%) exposed patients, a total of 20 treatment-related adverse events of mild severity were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The 12-week daily treatment using 2000 UA/day monomeric allergoid sublingual tablets is well tolerated and reduces the CPT reaction in house dust mite-allergic patients.

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Maintenance therapy with lenalidomide (LEN) for patients with multiple myeloma (MM) following autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation (auto-PBSCT) may be a promising option for preventing relapse or disease progression. However, the recommended dose of LEN has yet to be firmly established. We herein report the results of a multicenter clinical study for determining the feasible initial dose (FID) of LEN. In this trial, a total of 11 patients who achieved a very good partial response or complete response following auto-PBSCT were enrolled from five transplant centers in Japan. Three dose levels of LEN (level 0, 5 mg; level 1, 10 mg; and level 2,:15 mg) were tested in this study. FID was defined as the maximum estimated dose at which 70% of the patients could receive maintenance therapy for 12 weeks without any serious adverse events or disease progression. Using a continual reassessment method, 6 patients were assigned to level 0 and the remaining 5 patients were assigned to level 1. All 6 patients (100%) at level 0, but only 2 patients (40%) at level 1, completed 12 weeks of administration with their assigned dose of LEN. The results of our study demonstrated that, although 5 mg of LEN was acceptable in terms of safety, 7.5 mg of LEN may also be an acceptable FID.