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Reflecting on the complexity and impacts of determination of the causal relationship between health problems of workers and the exercise of their work activities, there is a need to learn about scientific articles that expose techniques to determine this type of causal relationship. There is also a need to reveal whether any article exposes multicriteria decision analysis technique. The aim is to quantify the techniques used to determine the causal relationship between health problems of workers and the exercise of their work activities. Bibliometric analysis was performed, searching for articles in Portuguese, Spanish and English. An advanced search was performed on the website of the ministerial journals portal and then on the Gale Academic OneFile, SciVerse Scopus, Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO) and PubMed Central collections. In summary, 38 articles were selected from portal, 50 from Gale Academic OneFile, 20 from SciVerse Scopus, 37 from SciELO and 5 from PubMed Central, totaling 150 articles of interest for analysis of their contents. Among these 150 articles, 33.33% addressed the causal relationship between illness and work, 3.33% described some process related to occupational diagnostic investigation and 0.66%, which represents only one article, exhibited a technique to determine this type of causal relationship: the probability of causality in neoplastic diseases. No article described multicriteria decision analysis method as a technique for determine this type of causal relationship. Therefore, there is a need to carry out and disseminate scientific research on methods to help determine a causal relationship between illness and work.
Ao refletir sobre a complexidade e os impactos do estabelecimento do nexo causal entre o agravo à saúde dos trabalhadores e o exercício de suas atividades laborais, surge a necessidade de conhecer artigos científicos que expõem técnicas para estabelecer esse tipo de nexo. Surge também a necessidade de revelar se algum artigo expõe auxílio multicritério à decisão. O objetivo foi quantificar as técnicas utilizadas no estabelecimento do nexo causal entre o agravo à saúde dos trabalhadores e o exercício de suas atividades laborais. Foi realizada uma análise bibliométrica, buscando artigos em português, espanhol e inglês. Realizou-se uma busca avançada no site do portal ministerial de periódicos e, em seguida, nas coleções Gale Academic OneFile, SciVerse Scopus, Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO) e PubMed Central. Em síntese, foram selecionados 38 artigos do portal ministerial de periódicos, 50 da Gale Academic OneFile, 20 da SciVerse Scopus, 37 do SciELO e 5 da PubMed Central, totalizando 150 artigos para análise de conteúdo. Entre esses 150 artigos, 33,33% abordavam o nexo causal entre doença e trabalho, 3,33% descreviam algum processo relacionado à investigação diagnóstica ocupacional, e 0,66%, o que representa apenas um artigo, exibia uma técnica para se estabelecer esse tipo de nexo causal: a probabilidade de causalidade em doenças neoplásicas. Nenhum artigo descrevia o auxílio multicritério à decisão como técnica para estabelecer esse tipo de nexo causal. Portanto, nota-se a necessidade da realização e divulgação de pesquisas científicas sobre métodos de auxílio ao estabelecimento de nexo causal entre doença e trabalho.
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Introduction: We aimed to develop a decision aid to support shared-decision making between physicians and women with average breast cancer risk when deciding whether to participate in breast cancer screening. Methods: We included women at average risk of breast cancer and physicians involved in supporting the decision of breast cancer screening from an Academic Hospital in Buenos Aires, Argentina. We followed the International Patient Decision Aid Standards to develop our decision aid. Guided by a steering group and a multidisciplinary consultancy group including a patient advocate, we reviewed the evidence about breast cancer screening and previous decision aids, explored the patients' information needs on this topic from the patients' and physicians' perspective using semi-structured interviews, and we alpha-tested the prototype to determine its usability, comprehensibility and applicability. Results: We developed the first prototype of a web-based decision aid to use during the clinical encounter with women aged 40 to 69 with average breast cancer risk. After a meeting with our consultancy group, we developed a second prototype that underwent alpha-testing. Physicians and patients agreed that the tool was clear, useful and applicable during a clinical encounter. We refined our final prototype according to their feedback. Conclusion: We developed the first decision aid in our region and language on this topic, developed with end-users' input and informed by the best available evidence. We expect this decision aid to help women and physicians make shared decisions during the clinical encounter when talking about breast cancer screening.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Médicos , Femenino , Humanos , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico , Toma de Decisiones , Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Lenguaje , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , AncianoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: We aimed to develop a decision aid to support shared-decision making between physicians and women with average breast cancer risk when deciding whether to participate in breast cancer screening. METHODS: We included women at average risk of breast cancer and physicians involved in supporting the decision of breast cancer screening from an Academic Hospital in Buenos Aires, Argentina. We followed the International Patient Decision Aid Standards to develop our decision aid. Guided by a steering group and a multidisciplinary consultancy group including a patient advocate, we reviewed the evidence about breast cancer screening and previous decision aids, explored the patients' information needs on this topic from the patients' and physicians' perspective using semi-structured interviews, and we alpha-tested the prototype to determine its usability, comprehensibility and applicability. RESULTS: We developed the first prototype of a web-based decision aid to use during the clinical encounter with women aged 40 to 69 with average breast cancer risk. After a meeting with our consultancy group, we developed a second prototype that underwent alpha-testing. Physicians and patients agreed that the tool was clear, useful and applicable during a clinical encounter. We refined our final prototype according to their feedback. CONCLUSION: We developed the first decision aid in our region and language on this topic, developed with end-users' input and informed by the best available evidence. We expect this decision aid to help women and physicians make shared decisions during the clinical encounter when talking about breast cancer screening.
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Humanos , Femenino , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Médicos , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico , Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Toma de Decisiones , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , LenguajeRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Temporomandibular disorders (TMD) do not only occur in adults but also in adolescents, with negative impacts on their development. AIM: To propose a predictive model for TMD in adolescents using a decision tree (DT) analysis and to identify groups at high and low risk of developing TMD in the city of Recife, PE, Brazil. DESIGN: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Recife on 1342 schoolchildren of both sexes aged 10-17 years. The analyses were performed using Pearson's chi-squared test and Fisher's exact test, as well as the CHAID algorithm for the construction of the DT. The SPSS statistical program was used. RESULTS: The prevalence of TMD was 33.2%. Statistically significant associations were observed between TMD and sex, depression, self-reported orofacial pain, and orofacial pain on clinical examination. The DT consisted of self-reported orofacial pain, orofacial pain on physical examination, and depression, with an overall predictive power of 73.0%. CONCLUSION: The proposed tree has a good predictive capacity and permits to identify groups at high risk of developing TMD among adolescents, such as those with self-reported orofacial pain or orofacial pain on examination associated with depression.
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Objetivo: Identificar os principais critérios e preferências na tomada de decisão em saúde para osteoporose pós-menopausa, por três grupos de stakeholders (n=3, cada): médicos; representantes de pacientes; gestores de saúde. Métodos: Uma estrutura de Análise de Decisão Multicritério (MCDA) foi realizada para gerar priorização entre tecnologias: uma revisão da literatura formou conjuntos de critérios; um painel online validou os critérios selecionados; o método AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) atribuiu pesos de importância para cada critério, por consenso. Resultados: Os critérios avaliados foram: eficácia (fraturas clínicas, vertebrais, não vertebrais e de quadril, densidade mineral óssea), segurança (eventos adversos e tolerabilidade), conveniência (adesão e comodidade posológica) e economia (razão de custo-efetividade incremental RCEI, custo por respondedor, impacto orçamentário e custos indiretos). Fraturas clínicas e de quadril apareceram nas primeiras posições para todos os grupos. Para os médicos, fratura de quadril (26,11%) e eventos adversos (14,64%) foram os principais critérios de priorização; para os representantes dos pacientes, fratura clínica (25,09%) e de quadril (22,84%), enquanto critérios econômicos receberam os menores pesos (1,2% a 0,98%), abaixo da comodidade posológica, por exemplo (4%). Gestores públicos priorizaram RCEI (19,44%) e fratura de quadril (16,21%). Conclusões: Os resultados apresentados têm potencial para auxiliar na tomada de decisão e priorização de tratamentos para osteoporose e estão em linha ao observado em estudos de preferência nesta área terapêutica. Embora os pesos finais tenham variado entre os grupos, os desfechos de eficácia que envolvem fraturas foram os critérios priorizados.
Objective: To identify the main criteria and preferences in healthcare decision-making for postmenopausal osteoporosis according to three stakeholder groups (n=3, each): physicians, patient representatives, and public healthcare managers. Methods: A multi-Criteria Decision Analysis framework was performed to generate prioritization rankings between technologies: a literature review formed sets of criteria; an online panel validated the pre-selected criteria; the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method assigned importance weights to each criterion by consensus. Results: The final weighted average included: efficacy (clinical fractures, new vertebral, non-vertebral, hip fractures, and bone mineral density), safety (clinically significant adverse events and tolerability), convenience (adherence and dosing convenience), and economics (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ICER, cost per responder, budget impact and indirect costs). New hip and clinical fractures appeared in the top-five positions for all stakeholder groups. For physicians the main criteria were new hip fracture (26.11%) and adverse events (14.64%); similarly, for patient representatives, clinical fracture (25.09%) and new hip fracture (22.84%) were the most important ones, while economic criteria received the lowest weights (1,2% to 0,98%), below dosing convenience, for example (4%). Public healthcare managers prioritized ICER (19.44%) and new hip fractures (16.21%). Conclusions: The presented results have the potential to assist decision-making and treatment prioritization in postmenopausal osteoporosis. Although final weightings varied among stakeholders, efficacy outcomes involving fractures were the priority criteria for all of them. It is possible to observe similar results in previously published studies of preferences in osteoporosis.
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Osteoporosis , Teoría de las Decisiones , Técnicas de Apoyo para la DecisiónRESUMEN
We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guidelines for evidence-based policymaking. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings - school, home, work, and community, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening, and also estimate the number of hospitalization and deaths averted by the implementation of contact tracing. Reopening schools results in a non-linear increase in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects in reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. While contact tracing strategies prevent new infections within school environments, they alone are not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission.
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ABSTRACT Introduction: Oral anticoagulants are the treatment of choice for diverse types of coagulation disorders. Warfarin is widely used by the Brazilian population, possibly due to its lower cost than other oral anticoagulants. However, it has a high risk of serious adverse effects if used incorrectly. The Anticoagulation Knowledge Tool (AKT) can assess a patient's knowledge about her/his oral anticoagulant therapy and can assist health professionals in identifying patients with difficulties in adherence. This study aimed to translate, culturally adapt, and validate the AKT into Brazilian Portuguese. Methods: After a standard forward-backward procedure to translate the AKT into Brazilian Portuguese (AKT-Br), a version of the instrument was applied in three groups (patients, pharmacists, and the general population). The reliability of the AKT-Br was tested using an internal consistency measure and test-retest. The validity of the instrument was confirmed with data from the contrasted groups. All statistical analyses were performed with RStudio. Results: The median scores obtained with the AKT-Br were 29.0, 17.0, and 7.5 for pharmacists, patients, and the general population, respectively (maximum score of 35 points). There was moderate internal consistency for the instrument and test-retest reliability was satisfactory. Analysis of variance for validity of the groups revealed a significant relationship between the total score and the evaluated groups. Conclusion: The ATK-Br is a reliable and valid tool to assess knowledge about oral anticoagulants. AKT-Br can be used in clinical practice as an auxiliary tool to improve patient care through personalised educational interventions.
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INTRODUCTION: Oral anticoagulants are the treatment of choice for diverse types of coagulation disorders. Warfarin is widely used by the Brazilian population, possibly due to its lower cost than other oral anticoagulants. However, it has a high risk of serious adverse effects if used incorrectly. The Anticoagulation Knowledge Tool (AKT) can assess a patient's knowledge about her/his oral anticoagulant therapy and can assist health professionals in identifying patients with difficulties in adherence. This study aimed to translate, culturally adapt, and validate the AKT into Brazilian Portuguese. METHODS: After a standard forward-backward procedure to translate the AKT into Brazilian Portuguese (AKT-Br), a version of the instrument was applied in three groups (patients, pharmacists, and the general population). The reliability of the AKT-Br was tested using an internal consistency measure and test-retest. The validity of the instrument was confirmed with data from the contrasted groups. All statistical analyses were performed with RStudio. RESULTS: The median scores obtained with the AKT-Br were 29.0, 17.0, and 7.5 for pharmacists, patients, and the general population, respectively (maximum score of 35 points). There was moderate internal consistency for the instrument and test-retest reliability was satisfactory. Analysis of variance for validity of the groups revealed a significant relationship between the total score and the evaluated groups. CONCLUSION: The ATK-Br is a reliable and valid tool to assess knowledge about oral anticoagulants. AKT-Br can be used in clinical practice as an auxiliary tool to improve patient care through personalised educational interventions.
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Comparación Transcultural , Proteínas Proto-Oncogénicas c-akt , Anticoagulantes/uso terapéutico , Brasil , Femenino , Humanos , Psicometría/métodos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
AIM AND METHOD: To determine the effect on decisional-related and clinical outcomes of decision aids for depression treatment in adults in randomised clinical trials. In January 2019, a systematic search was conducted in five databases. Study selection and data extraction were performed in duplicate. Meta-analyses were performed, and standardised and weighted mean differences were calculated, with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. The certainty of the evidence was evaluated with GRADE methodology. RESULTS: Six randomised clinical trials were included. The pooled estimates showed that decision aids for depression treatment had a beneficial effect on patients' decisional conflict, patient knowledge and information exchange between patient and health professional. However, no statistically significant effect was found for doctor facilitation, treatment adherence or depressive symptoms. The certainty of the evidence was very low for all outcomes. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Using decision aids to choose treatment in patients with depression may have a a beneficial effect on decisional-related outcomes, but it may not translate into an improvement in clinical outcomes.
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Resumo Objetivo Desenvolver um algoritmo para avaliação perineal na assistência ao parto e aferir sua aplicabilidade e acurácia utilizando um protótipo de sistema de suporte à decisão. Métodos Pesquisa aplicada de desenvolvimento tecnológico, constituída pela construção de algoritmo, avaliação por profissionais com expertise na área, criação de um protótipo de Sistema de Apoio à Decisão usando ferramentas on-line e avaliação de sua aplicabilidade e acurácia durante a assistência a 305 partos realizados por enfermeiros. Os dados foram analisados por estatística descritiva, teste Qui-quadrado e exato de Fisher além do coeficiente de Kappa para avaliar a concordância entre o procedimento indicado pelo sistema e o realizado pelo profissional. Resultados Houve concordância entre a sugestão do algoritmo e a decisão do profissional em 93,1% dos partos; em 6,9% o profissional decidiu caminhos opostos ao recomendado. Os profissionais que optaram por seguir a sugestão do algoritmo obtiveram como desfecho a integridade perineal ou a ocorrência de lacerações de 1°grau. Os que optaram por não seguir a recomendação houve ocorrência de lacerações de 2º ou 3º graus em 28,6% das parturientes. Já na análise de acurácia, o algoritmo sugeriu que a episiotomia deveria ser realizada em 45 dos 305 partos assistidos. Verificou-se associação entre divergências de conduta e número de eventos adversos (p=0,001). Conclusão O algoritmo mostrou-se ferramenta útil para a avaliação perineal na assistência ao parto.
Resumen Objetivo Desarrollar un algoritmo para la evaluación perineal en la asistencia al parto y determinar su aplicabilidad y precisión utilizando un prototipo de sistema para respaldar la decisión. Métodos Investigación aplicada de desarrollo tecnológico, constituida mediante la construcción del algoritmo, evaluación de profesionales con experiencia en el área, creación de un prototipo de Sistema para Respaldar la Decisión usando herramientas en línea y evaluación de su aplicabilidad y precisión durante la atención a 305 partos realizados por enfermeros. Los datos fueron analizados mediante estadística descriptiva, prueba χ2 de Pearson y prueba exacta de Fisher, además del coeficiente Kappa para evaluar la concordancia entre el procedimiento indicado por el sistema y el realizado por el profesional. Resultados Hubo concordancia entre la sugerencia del algoritmo y la decisión del profesional en el 93,1 % de los partos, en el 6,9 % el profesional decidió un camino opuesto al recomendado. Los profesionales que optaron por seguir la sugerencia del algoritmo obtuvieron como resultado la integridad perineal o episodios de desgarro de primer grado. Los que optaron por no seguir la recomendación, tuvieron episodios de desgarros de segundo y tercer grado en el 28,6 % de las parturientas. Por otro lado, en el análisis de precisión, el algoritmo sugirió que la episiotomía debería ser realizada en 45 de los 305 partos atendidos. Se verificó relación entre divergencias de conducta y número de eventos adversos (p=0,001). Conclusión El algoritmo demostró ser una herramienta útil para la evaluación perineal en la atención a partos.
Abstract Objective To develop an algorithm for perineal assessment in childbirth care and assess its applicability and accuracy using a decision support system prototype. Methods This is applied research of technological development, consisting of the construction of an algorithm, assessment by professionals with expertise in the area, creation of a Decision Support System prototype using online tools and assessment of its applicability and accuracy during care for 305 childbirths performed by nurses. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square and Fisher's exact tests, in addition to the Kappa coefficient to assess the agreement between the procedure indicated by the system and that performed by professionals. Results There was agreement between the algorithm's suggestion and professional decision in 93.1% of childbirths. In 6.9%, professionals decided opposite paths to the recommended one. The professionals who chose to follow the algorithm's suggestion had perineal integrity or the occurrence of first-degree tear as an outcome. Those who chose not to follow the recommendation had second- or third-degree tears in 28.6% of parturient women. In the accuracy analysis, the algorithm suggested that episiotomy should be performed in 45 of the 305 assisted childbirths. There was an association between divergences in conduct and the number of adverse events (p=0.001). Conclusion The algorithm proved to be a useful tool for perineal assessment in childbirth care.
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Humanos , Femenino , Embarazo , Perineo/fisiopatología , Trabajo de Parto , Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas , Laceraciones , Presentación en Trabajo de Parto , Parto Normal , Algoritmos , EpisiotomíaRESUMEN
ABSTRACT The number of surgical procedures in the world is large and in Brazil it has been expressing a growth trend higher than the population growth. In this context, perioperative risk assessment safeguards the optimization of the outcomes sought by the procedures. For this evaluation, anamnesis and physical examination constitute an irreplaceable initial stage which may or may not be followed by complementary exams, interventions for clinical stabilization and application of risk estimation tools. The use of these tools can be very useful in order to obtain objective data for decision making by weighing surgical risk and benefit. Global and cardiovascular risk assessments are of greatest interest in the preoperative period, however information about their methods is scattered in the literature. Some tools such as the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) are more widely known, while others are less known but can provide valuable information. Here, the main indices, scores and calculators that address general and cardiovascular perioperative risk were detailed.
RESUMO O número de procedimentos cirúrgicos no mundo é amplo e no Brasil vem expressando tendência de crescimento superior ao crescimento populacional. Nesse contexto, a avaliação de risco perioperatório resguarda a otimização dos desfechos buscados pelos procedimentos. Para a realização dessa avaliação, a anamnese e exame físico constituem etapa inicial insubstituível, a qual pode ou não ser seguida de exames complementares, intervenções para estabilização clínica e aplicação de ferramentas de estimativa de risco. A utilização destas ferramentas pode ser bastante útil a fim de se obter um dado objetivo para a tomada de decisão pesando-se risco e benefício cirúrgico. As avaliações de risco global e cardiovascular são as de maior interesse no pré-operatório, entretanto informações sobre seus métodos encontram-se dispersas na literatura. Algumas ferramentas como o American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) e Índice de Risco Cardíaco Revisado (RCRI) são mais amplamente conhecidos, enquanto outros são menos conhecidos em nosso meio mas podem fornecer informações valiosas. Aqui detalhou-se os principais índices, escores e calculadoras que abordam risco perioperatório geral e cardiovascular.
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Examen Físico , Factores de Riesgo de Enfermedad Cardiaca , Brasil , Medición de Riesgo/métodosRESUMEN
ABSTRACT Introduction: perioperative risk assessment is essential to mitigate surgical complications, which suggests individual and collective interest since the number of surgical procedures in Brazil has been expanding steadily. The aim of this study was to summarize and detail the main calculators, indexes and scores regarding perioperative pulmonary, renal, hepatobiliary, hematological and surgical site infection risks for general non-cardiac surgeries, which are dispersed in the literature. Method: a narrative review was performed based on manuscripts in English and Portuguese found in the electronic databases Pubmed/MEDLINE and EMBASE. Results: the review included 11 tools related to the systems covered, for which the application method and its limitations are detailed. Conclusion: the non-cardiovascular perioperative risk estimation tools are beneficial when disturbances are identified in the preoperative clinical examination that justify a possible increased risk to the affected system, so the use of these tools provides palpable values to aid in the judgment of surgical risk and benefit as well as it identifies factors amenable to intervention to improve outcomes.
RESUMO Introdução: a avaliação de risco perioperatório é essencial para mitigação das complicações cirúrgicas, o que aventa interesse individual e coletivo uma vez que o número de procedimentos cirúrgicos no Brasil vem se expandindo de maneira crescente. O objetivo deste estudo foi resumir e detalhar as principais calculadoras, índices e escores dos riscos perioperatórios pulmonar, renal, hepatobiliar, hematológico e de infecção de sítio cirúrgico para cirurgias gerais não cardíacas, os quais encontram-se dispersos na literatura. Método: foi realizada revisão narrativa a partir de manuscritos em inglês e português encontrados nas bases eletrônicas Pubmed/MEDLINE e EMBASE. Resultados: a revisão incluiu 11 ferramentas relativas aos sistemas abordados, para as quais detalha-se o método de aplicação e suas limitações. Conclusão: as ferramentas de estimativa de risco perioperatório não cardiovascular encontram benefício quando se identifica no exame clínico pré-operatório alterações que justifiquem possível risco aumentado ao sistema afetado, assim a utilização destas ferramentas fornece valores palpáveis para auxílio no julgamento de risco e benefício cirúrgico bem como identifica fatores passíveis de intervenção para melhoria dos desfechos.
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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted systemic inequities in the United States and resulted in a larger burden of negative social outcomes for marginalized communities. New Mexico, a state in the southwestern US, has a unique population with a large racial minority population and a high rate of poverty that may make communities more vulnerable to negative social outcomes from COVID-19. To identify which communities may be at the highest relative risk, we created a county-level vulnerability index. After the first COVID-19 case was reported in New Mexico on March 11, 2020, we fit a generalized propensity score model that incorporates sociodemographic factors to predict county-level viral exposure and thus, the generic risk to negative social outcomes such as unemployment or mental health impacts. We used four static sociodemographic covariates important for the state of New Mexico-population, poverty, household size, and minority population-and weekly cumulative case counts to iteratively run our model each week and normalize the exposure score to create a time-varying vulnerability index. We found the relative vulnerability between counties varied in the first eight weeks from the initial COVID-19 case before stabilizing. This framework for creating a location-specific vulnerability index in response to an ongoing disaster may be used as a quick, deployable metric to inform health policy decisions such as allocating state resources to the county level.
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El error médico es considerado un problema de salud pública que puede estar relacionado con fallas en la toma de decisiones de parte de un médico acerca del diagnóstico, el tratamiento o el pronóstico de un paciente, es decir, en el razonamiento médico. A pesar de su importancia, la comprensión sobre el razonamiento clínico ha sido heterogénea, con el uso de múltiples definiciones y modelos teóricos que se enfocan en distintos aspectos del procesamiento que hace el médico en la atención de un paciente. Esta diversidad conceptual puede explicarse por la influencia del contexto histórico. El cómo piensa el médico puede verse desde el pensamiento mágico en la Antigüedad, pasando por el racionalismo del Renacimiento y la aproximación científica moderna, hasta los modelos actuales del pensamiento dual y la estimación de probabilidades. Lo que parece ser constante es que existe una misión explicativa de saber qué le ocurre al paciente, aunque el fin último sea más comprender la experiencia del enfermo. En esta revisión narrativa se presenta esta evolución con una de línea de tiempo que resume las formas de concebir el razonamiento en medicina, según el contexto histórico.
SUMMARY Medical error is a public health problem, that may be related to failures in a doctor's decisionmaking about a patient's diagnosis, treatment, or prognosis, that is, in medical reasoning. Despite its importance, the understanding of clinical reasoning has been heterogeneous, with the use of multiple definitions and theoretical models, which focus on different aspects of the processing that physicians elaborate about taking care of a patient. This conceptual diversity can be explained by the influence of the historical context. How physicians think can be seen from magical thinking in Antiquity, through Renaissance rationalism and the modern scientific approach, to current models of dual thinking and probability estimation. What seems to be constant is that it has an explanatory mission of knowing what happens to the patient, although the ultimate goal is more to understand the patient's experience. In this narrative review, this evolution is presented with a timeline, which summarizes the ways of conceiving reasoning in medicine according to the historical context.
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This article is the first in a collaborative methodological series of narrative reviews on biostatistics and clinical epidemiology. This review aims to present rapid reviews, compare them with systematic reviews, and mention how they can be used. Rapid reviews use a methodology like systematic reviews, but through shortcuts applied, they can attain answers in less than six months and with fewer resources. Decision-makers use them in both America and Europe. There is no consensus on which shortcuts have the least impact on the reliability of conclusions, so rapid reviews are heterogeneous. Users of rapid reviews should identify these shortcuts in the methodology and be cautious when interpreting the conclusions, although they generally reach answers concordant with those obtained through a formal systematic review. The principal value of rapid reviews is to respond to health decision-makers needs when the context demands answers in limited time frames.
Este artículo es el primero de una serie metodológica colaborativa de revisiones narrativas sobre temáticas de bioestadística y epidemiología clínica. El objetivo de esta revisión es presentar las revisiones rápidas, compararlas con las revisiones sistemáticas y mencionar su uso actual. Las revisiones rápidas utilizan una metodología similar a las revisiones sistemáticas, pero mediante atajos utilizados en su desarrollo; permiten alcanzar respuestas en menos de seis meses y con menos recursos, por lo que son utilizadas por tomadores de decisiones tanto en América como Europa. No existe consenso sobre cuáles atajos tienen menor impacto en la confiabilidad de las conclusiones, por lo que las revisiones rápidas son heterogéneas entre sí. Los consumidores deben identificar estos atajos en la metodología y ser precavidos en la interpretación de las conclusiones, aunque generalmente alcanzan respuestas concordantes con las obtenidas mediante una revisión sistemática tradicional. Su principal atractivo es ajustarse a las necesidades de los tomadores de decisiones en salud, cuando el contexto exige respuestas en plazos de tiempo acotados.
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Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Medicina Basada en la Evidencia , Revisiones Sistemáticas como Asunto , Bioestadística , Epidemiología , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Reproducibilidad de los ResultadosRESUMEN
Objetivo: Avaliar a capacidade preditiva de diferentes modelos de série temporal de casos de malária no estado do Amapá, Brasil, no período 1997-2016. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de séries temporais com casos de malária registrados no Amapá. Foram utilizados dez modelos estatísticos determinísticos ou estocásticos para simulação e teste em horizontes de previsão de 3, 6 e 12 meses. Resultados: O teste inicial mostrou que a série é estacionária. Os modelos determinísticos apresentaram melhor desempenho do que os modelos estocásticos. O modelo ARIMA apresentou erros absolutos menores do que 2% na escala logarítmica e erros relativos 3,4-5,8 vezes menores em relação ao modelo nulo. A predição de casos futuros de malária nos horizontes de 6 e 12 meses de antecedência foi possível. Conclusão: Recomenda-se o uso de modelo ARIMA para a previsão de cenários futuros e para a antecipação do planejamento nos serviços de saúde dos estados da Região Amazônica.
Objetivo: Evaluar el poder predictivo de diferentes modelos de series de temporales de casos de malaria en el estado de Amapá, Brasil, en el periodo 1997-2016. Métodos: Se trata de un estudio ecológico de series de temporales con casos de malaria registrados en el estado de Amapá. Se utilizaron diez modelos estadísticos determinísticos o estocásticos para la simulación y la prueba en horizontes de predicción de 3, 6 y 12 meses. Resultados: La prueba inicial mostró que la serie es estacionaria. Los modelos determinísticos mostraron mejor desempeño que los modelos estocásticos. El modelo ARIMA mostró errores absolutos menores al 2% en la escala logarítmica y errores relativos 3,4-5,8 veces menores que el modelo nulo. La predicción de casos futuros en horizontes de 6 y 12 meses de antelación fue posible. Conclusión: Se recomienda utilizar el modelo ARIMA para predecir escenarios futuros y anticipar la planificación en los servicios de salud en los estados de la Región Amazónica.
Objective: To evaluate the predictive power of different malaria case time-series models in the state of Amapá, Brazil, for the period 1997-2016. Methods: This is an ecological time series study with malaria cases recorded in the state of Amapá. Ten deterministic or stochastic statistical models were used for simulation and testing in 3, 6, and 12 month forecast horizons. Results: The initial test showed that the series is stationary. Deterministic models performed better than stochastic models. The ARIMA model showed absolute errors of less than 2% on the logarithmic scale and relative errors 3.4-5.8 times less than the null model. It was possible to predict future malaria cases 6 and 12 months in advance. Conclusion: The ARIMA model is recommended for predicting future scenarios and for earlier planning in state health services in the Amazon Region.
Asunto(s)
Humanos , Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Malaria/epidemiología , Brasil/epidemiología , Estudios de Series Temporales , Modelos EstadísticosRESUMEN
Para o reconhecimento da magnitude da doença de Chagas crônica no Brasil, é necessário rearticular as ações de vigilância em saúde, buscando o desenvolvimento de uma ampla rede hierarquizada de serviços distribuída geograficamente, para prover atendimento aos milhares de cidadãos acometidos pela infecção por Trypanosoma cruzi. O objetivo do trabalho foi elaborar um modelo de priorização de municípios para a vigilância da doença de Chagas crônica, a fim de ofertar cuidado integral às pessoas afetadas pela enfermidade. Para isso, foi realizada uma análise multicritério utilizando o algoritmo PROMETHEÉ II implementado no software Pradin. Os critérios de avaliação do modelo foram compostos de três índices construídos a partir de indicadores (a) epidemiológicos diretamente relacionados à doença de Chagas crônica, (b) decorrentes da evolução da doença de Chagas crônica, e (c) relacionados ao acesso aos serviços de saúde. A Escala Fundamental de Saaty foi utilizada para definição dos pesos dos indicadores, com maior importância aos diretamente relacionados à doença de Chagas crônica e àqueles com maior confiabilidade e respectiva qualidade de informação. A avaliação da consistência dos modelos se deu em comparação com dados disponíveis das áreas historicamente endêmicas, com a distribuição de casos agudos, e outras análises de sensibilidade. O modelo mais adequado foi definido por 1.345 municípios de média prioridade, 1.003 de alta e 601 como muito alta prioridade para doença de Chagas crônica, com maiores proporções nas regiões Sudeste e Nordeste. A priorização permite à gestão racionalizar e direcionar recursos, sendo essencial para identificar os territórios onde as pessoas infectadas estão vivendo, a fim de promover a assistência integral e melhorar a qualidade de vida.
The identification of the magnitude of chronic Chagas disease in Brazil requires linking activities in health surveillance, seeking to develop a wide, hierarchically organized and geographically distributed network of services to provide care to thousands of individuals with Trypanosoma cruzi infection. The study aimed to elaborate a model for prioritization of municipalities for chronic Chagas disease, to offer comprehensive care for persons with the disease. A multicriteria analysis was thus performed using the PROMETHEÉ II algorithm, implemented in the Pradin software. The criteria for assessing the model consisted of three indices built from the following indicators: (a) epidemiological, directly related to chronic Chagas disease, (b) related to the evolution in chronic Chagas disease, and (c) related to access to health services. Saaty's Fundamental Scale was used to define the indicators' weights, with greater importance assigned to those directly related to chronic Chagas disease and to those with greater reliability and respective quality of information. Assessment of the models' consistency was based on comparison of the available data in historically endemic areas with the distribution of acute cases, besides other sensitivity analyses. The best model was defined by 1,345 municipalities with medium priority, 1,003 high priority, and 601 with very high priority for chronic Chagas disease, with the highest proportions in the Southeast and Northeast regions. Prioritization allows the administration to rationalize and channel resources, and it is essential to identify the territories where persons with chronic Chagas disease are living, to promote comprehensive care and improve quality of life.
Para el reconocimiento de la magnitud de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en Brasil, es necesario rearticular las acciones de vigilancia en salud, buscando el desarrollo de una amplia red jerarquizada de servicios distribuida geográficamente, para proveer atención a los millares de ciudadanos afectados por la infección por Trypanosoma cruzi. El objetivo del trabajo fue elaborar un modelo de priorización de municipios para la vigilancia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, con el fin de ofertar cuidado integral a las personas afectadas por la enfermedad. Para eso, se realizó un análisis multicriterio, utilizando el algoritmo PROMETHEÉ II, implementado en el software Pradin. Los criterios de evaluación del modelo estuvieron compuestos por tres índices construidos a partir de indicadores (a) epidemiológicos directamente relacionados con la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, (b) derivados de la evolución de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica y, (c) relacionados con el acceso a los servicios de salud. La Escala Fundamental de Saaty se utilizó para la definición de los pesos de los indicadores, con mayor importancia a los directamente relacionados con la enfermedad de Chagas crónica y aquellos con mayor confiabilidad, así como su respectiva calidad de información. La evaluación de la consistencia de los modelos se consiguió en comparación con los datos disponibles de las áreas históricamente endémicas, con la distribución de casos agudos, y otros análisis de sensibilidad. El modelo más adecuado se definió por 1.345 municipios de media prioridad, 1.003 de alta y 601 como mucho alta prioridad para enfermedad de Chagas crónica, con mayores proporciones en las regiones Sudeste y Nordeste. La priorización permite a las áreas de gestión racionalizar y dirigir recursos, y es esencial para identificar los territorios donde estas personas están viviendo, con el fin de promover la asistencia integral y mejorar la calidad de vida.
Asunto(s)
Humanos , Trypanosoma cruzi , Enfermedad de Chagas/epidemiología , Calidad de Vida , Brasil/epidemiología , Reproducibilidad de los ResultadosRESUMEN
Este artículo es el primero de una serie metodológica colaborativa de revisiones narrativas sobre temáticas de bioestadística y epidemiología clínica. El objetivo de esta revisión es presentar las revisiones rápidas, compararlas con las revisiones sistemáticas y mencionar su uso actual. Las revisiones rápidas utilizan una metodología similar a las revisiones sistemáticas, pero mediante atajos utilizados en su desarrollo; permiten alcanzar respuestas en menos de seis meses y con menos recursos, por lo que son utilizadas por tomadores de decisiones tanto en América como Europa. No existe consenso sobre cuáles atajos tienen menor impacto en la confiabilidad de las conclusiones, por lo que las revisiones rápidas son heterogéneas entre sí. Los consumidores deben identificar estos atajos en la metodología y ser precavidos en la interpretación de las conclusiones, aunque generalmente alcanzan respuestas concordantes con las obtenidas mediante una revisión sistemática tradicional. Su principal atractivo es ajustarse a las necesidades de los tomadores de decisiones en salud, cuando el contexto exige respuestas en plazos de tiempo acotados.
This article is the first in a collaborative methodological series of narrative reviews on biostatistics and clinical epidemiology. This review aims to present rapid reviews, compare them with systematic reviews, and mention how they can be used. Rapid reviews use a methodology like systematic reviews, but through shortcuts applied, they can attain answers in less than six months and with fewer resources. Decision-makers use them in both America and Europe. There is no consensus on which shortcuts have the least impact on the reliability of conclusions, so rapid reviews are heterogeneous. Users of rapid reviews should identify these shortcuts in the methodology and be cautious when interpreting the conclusions, although they generally reach answers concordant with those obtained through a formal systematic review. The principal value of rapid reviews is to respond to health decision-makers' needs when the context demands answers in limited time frames.
Asunto(s)
Humanos , Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Medicina Basada en la Evidencia , Revisiones Sistemáticas como Asunto , Epidemiología , Bioestadística , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Europa (Continente)RESUMEN
We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of deterministic and stochastic statistical models by means of a protocol developed in a free programming environment for monthly time-series analysis of the incidence of confirmed dengue cases in the states and federal district of Brazil from January 2000 to December 2017. This was an ecological time-series study conducted to evaluate and validate the accuracy of 10 statistical models for predicting the new cases of dengue. Official data on the monthly cases of dengue from January 2000 to December 2016 were used to train the statistical models, while those for the period January-December 2017 were used to test the predictive capacity of the models by considering three forecasting horizons (12, 6, and 3 months). Deterministic models proved to be reliable for predicting dengue in a 12-month forecasting horizon, while stochastic models were reliable for predicting the disease in a 3-month forecasting horizon. We were able to reliably employ models for predicting dengue in the states and federal district of Brazil. Hence, we strongly recommend incorporating these models in state health services for predicting dengue and for decision-making with regard to the advanced planning of interventions before the emergence of epidemics.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: It's estimated that 40% to 60% of patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery of the hip or knee who do not receive thromboprophylaxis will develop deep venous thrombosis Instituto Nacional de Traumatologia e Ortopedia has established a guideline to prevent DVT with the administration of the Enoxaparin. Recently, institute stakeholders have been questioning this guideline as new oral anticoagulants that offer more comfort and efficacy, but present higher risk of bleeding, have been appearing in the market for treating deep venous thrombosis. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to validate the application of a multicriteria decision analysis in a real-world problem, the use of rivaroxaban and enoxaparin to prevent deep venous thrombosis. METHODS: The multicriteria method MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) was used in a decision conferencing process to develop an evaluation model for measuring the relative value of the drugs on each evaluation criterion, separately and globally. The model-building process was informed by a literature review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials with a critical appraisal of the evidence. RESULTS: We report a model-structure with eight criteria, each one associated with a weighting coefficient and value function. Following a simple additive aggregation process, the model-outputs showed that Rivaroxaban was considered a robust option for DVT. Sensitivity analysis and robustness analysis were performed and testify the consistency of the results. CONCLUSION: This article contributes to literature by showing how MACBETH method can be combined with scientific evidence and participatory group processes, for health technology assessment in hospitals.