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Illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is one of the leading causes of the decline in high-value species. Crime-reduction strategies to counter IWT can have unintended effects, with crime displacement occurring when offenders react to such interventions. Despite the value of understanding how and why displacement occurs for informing conservation strategies, few examples are published. We explored a case of perpetrator replacement following an intervention and drew lessons for conservation strategies for high-value species. Poaching and subsequent trade threaten the Sundarbans tiger (Panthera tigris). Pirate gangs were the dominant poachers from 1980 to 2017, but following an extensive campaign, the Sundarbans was declared pirate free in 2018. We interviewed 280 individuals, including 100 tiger poachers, from 26 administrative unions bordering the Sundarbans and used interviewee responses to compare the poaching situation during and after the pirate era. We analyzed the spatial distribution of tiger poachers among the unions and used crime script analysis of the dominant poacher type to identify intervention. Because pirates opportunistically poached tigers, the government's successful counter-pirate campaign inadvertently removed the dominant tiger poaching type. However, a temporary reduction in poaching was rapidly cancelled out by the emergence of at least 32 specialist tiger-poaching teams. With the risk of extortion and robbery from pirates gone, other groups increased the frequency of opportunistic and targeted tiger poaching. Based on expert interviews, we estimated that 341 tiger poachers of all types are active throughout the unions, with 79% of specialists concentrated in 27% of unions. The highly focused counter-pirate campaign reduced motivations and opportunities for piracy but left intact the opportunity structure and trade connections for tiger poaching, and with insufficient enforcement officers trading has flourished. Interventions targeting opportunities for poaching by specialist tiger poachers include heightened surveillance and reporting mechanisms and alternative livelihood provision to disincentivize poaching.

Aprendizaje a partir de la sustitución del infractor para eliminar las oportunidades de crimen y prevenir la caza furtiva del tigre de Sundarbans Resumen El mercado ilegal de fauna (MIF) es una de las principales causas de la declinación de especies importantes. Las estrategias de reducción de crímenes para contrarrestar el MIF pueden tener efectos no deseados, como el desplazamiento del crimen que ocurre cuando los infractores reaccionan a dichas intervenciones. A pesar de lo valioso que es para las estrategias de conservación entender cómo y por qué ocurre este desplazamiento, se publican pocos ejemplos. Exploramos un caso de sustitución del infractor después de una intervención sacamos lecciones para las estrategias de conservación de especies importantes. La caza furtiva y el mercado subsecuente son una amenaza para el tigre de Sundarbans (Panthera tigris). Los piratas fueron los cazadores dominantes entre 1980 y 2017, pero después de una campaña exhaustiva, el Sundarbans fue declarado libre de piratas en 2018. Entrevistamos a 280 individuos, incluidos 100 cazadores furtivos, de 26 uniones administrativas que rodean al Sundarbans y usamos sus respuestas para comparar la situación de la caza furtiva durante y después de los piratas. Analizamos la distribución espacial de los cazadores furtivos entre las uniones y usamos el análisis de escritura criminal del tipo dominante de cazador para identificar las intervenciones. Ya que los piratas eran cazadores furtivos oportunistas, la campaña exitosa del gobierno para contrarrestarlos eliminó sin saberlo el tipo dominante de caza furtiva. Sin embargo, una reducción temporal de la caza se canceló rápidamente con la emergencia de al menos 32 equipos especialistas en la cacería furtiva de los tigres. Sin el riesgo de la extorsión o robo por parte de los piratas, otros grupos incrementaron la frecuencia de la cacería oportunista y focalizada. Con base en las entrevistas a expertos, estimamos que 341 cazadores de tigres de todos los tipos están activos en las uniones, con 79% de los especialistas concentrados en 27% de las uniones. La campaña focalizada anti-piratas redujo las motivaciones y oportunidades de piratería, pero no afectó la estructura de oportunidades y conexiones mercantiles de la cacería furtiva de tigres, lo cual, sumado a la falta de suficientes agentes policiales, ha aumentado el mercado. Las intervenciones enfocadas en las oportunidades de cacería de los cazadores especialistas incluyen una mayor vigilancia y mecanismos de reporte y el suministro de sustentos alternativos para desalentar la cacería furtiva.

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Background Crackdowns on urban sites with concentrated criminal activity are sometimes followed by geographical relocation of crime. Is this also the case in cyberspace, where illegal websites and online networks can be wiped clean, but also quickly rebuilt and replaced on new servers and URLs? Methods I address this question in three steps. First, I measure MDMA trade in a large digital market for drugs, before and after the arrest of a leading MDMA seller in the same market. Second, I count the number of available digital drug markets and vendor shops in the period February 2014-June 2018, to see if websites closed by police were replaced by new ones. Third, I track the digital movement and trading activities of individual drug sellers, before and after law enforcement shut down two large markets. Results After police arrested a leading MDMA seller, other MDMA sellers filled most - but not all - of the gap. A major law enforcement crackdown reduced the number of available markets, but new ones were created, and market counts eventually surpassed the previous peak. When law enforcement shut down two big markets, many of the sellers relocated to other e-commerce sites and continued high-earning operations there. Conclusion Arrests and market closures redirect digital drug trade to other sellers and markets. Hot spot policing in cyberspace might produce temporary results, but is arguably ineffective in the long run, as actors use information and communication technology's unique capacities to reorganize.

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