RESUMEN
Background: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is one of the most urbanized and violent regions worldwide. Homicides in youth (15-24 years old, yo) and young adults (25-39yo) are an especially pressing public health problem. Yet there is little research on how city characteristics relate to homicide rates in youth and young adults. We aimed to describe homicide rates among youth and young adults, as well as their association with socioeconomic and built environment factors across 315 cities in eight LAC countries. Methods: This is an ecological study. We estimated homicide rates in youth and young adults for the period 2010-2016. We investigated associations of homicide rates with sub-city education and GDP, Gini, density, landscape isolation, population and population growth using sex-stratified negative binomial models with city and sub-city level random intercepts, and country-level fixed effects. Findings: The mean sub-city homicide rate per 100,000 in persons aged 15-24 was 76.9 (SD = 95.9) in male and 6.7 (SD = 8.5) in female, and in persons aged 25-39 was 69.4 (SD = 68.9) in male and 6.0 (SD = 6.7) in female. Rates were higher in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and El Salvador than in Argentina, Chile, Panama and Peru. There was significant variation in rates across cities and sub-cities, even after accounting for the country. In fully adjusted models, higher sub-city education scores and higher city GDP were associated with a lower homicide rate among male and female (rate ratios (RR) per SD higher value in male and female, respectively, 0.87 (CI 0.84-0.90) and 0.90 (CI 0.86-0.93) for education and 0.87 (CI 0.81-0.92) and 0.92 (CI 0.87-0.97) for GDP). A higher city Gini index was associated with higher homicide rates (RR 1.28 (CI 1.10-1.48) and 1.21 (CI 1.07-1.36) in male and female, respectively). Greater isolation da was also associated with higher homicide rates (RR 1.13 (CI 1.07-1.21) and 1.07 (CI 1.02-1.12) in male and female, respectively). Interpretation: City and sub-city factors are associated with homicide rates. Improvements to education, social conditions and inequality and physical integration of cities may contribute to the reduction of homicides in the region. Funding: The Wellcome Trust [205177/Z/16/Z].
RESUMEN
The writings of Jane Jacobs led urbanists to advocate for increased social diversity in neighborhoods as a method of promoting vitality in public spaces. Since then, New York City has become both a role model and a testing ground for zoning changes that support this objective. However, since the 2000s community activists and scholars have argued that these zoning changes have led to the dislocation of communities of color and incentivized gentrification. This project analyzed panel social and housing census data from 1990 and 2015 to assess the validity of these arguments. Results suggest that zoning changes have limited and differentiated effects on the different dimensions of social diversity. For instance, they have strong effects on household income diversity, a nuanced effect on race diversity, and slightly negative effects on family type diversity.