RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Overdose mortality rates in the United States remain critical to population health. Economic , such as unemployment, are noted risk factors for drug overdoses. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated economic hardship; as a result, the US government enacted income protection programs in conjunction with existing unemployment insurance (UI) to dampen COVID-19-related economic consequences. We investigate whether UI, operationalized as the weekly benefit allowance (WBA) replacement rate, is negatively associated with drug-related overdoses. METHODS: Data from the pooled 2014-2020 Detailed Restricted Mortality files for all counties from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, restricted to people ≥18 years of age, aggregated at the county-quarter level (n = 89,914). We included any fatal drug, opioid, and stimulant overdose. We modeled the association between WBA replacement rate (e.g., a greater proportion of weekly earnings replaced by UI) on each county-level age-adjusted mortality outcome using separate linear regression models during 2014-2020, pre-COVID (2014-2018), and post-COVID (2019-2020). We conducted sensitivity analyses using multi-level linear regression models. RESULTS: Results indicated that a more robust WBA replacement rate any drug (Risk Difference [RD]: -0.06, 95 % Confidence Interval [CI]: -0.08, -0.05), opioid (RD: -0.04, 95 % CI: -0.06, -0.03), and stimulant (RD: -0.03, 95 % CI: -0.04, -0.02) across the entire study period (2014-2020). A more robust WBA replacement rate was associated with fewer fatal drug, opioid and stimulant overdoses in the pre-COVID-19 period and on fatal any drug and stimulant overdoses in the COVID-19 period. CONCLUSIONS: Findings support the notion that income protection policies, such as robust UI, can have a supportive role in preventing fatal drug overdoses, calling for a broader discussion onthe role of the safety net programs to buffer drug-related harms.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Labor and employment are important issues in social life. The demand for online job searching and searching for labor regulations in legal documents, particularly regarding the policy for unemployment benefits, is essential. Nowadays, each function has some programs for its working. However, there is no program that combines both functions. In practice, when users seek a job, they may be unemployed or want to transfer to another work. Thus, they are required to search for regulations about unemployment insurance policies and related information, as well as regulations about workers working smoothly and following labor law. Ontology is a useful technique for representing areas of practical knowledge. This article proposes an ontology-based method for solving labor and employment-related problems. First, we construct an ontology of job skills to match curriculum vitae (CV) and job descriptions (JD). In addition, an ontology for representing labor law documents is proposed to aid users in their search for legal labor law regulations. These ontologies are combined to construct the knowledge base of a job-searching and labor law-searching system. In addition, this integrated ontology is used to study several issues involving the matching of CVs and JDs and the search for labor law issues. A system for intelligent resume searching in information technology is developed using the proposed method. This system also incorporates queries pertaining to Vietnamese labor law policies regarding unemployment and healthcare benefits. The experimental results demonstrate that the method designed to assist job seekers and users searching for legal labor documents is effective.

RESUMEN

This study examines whether unemployment insurance benefit generosity impacts divorce, drawing on full population administrative data and a Swiss reform that reduced unemployment insurance maximum benefit duration. We assess the effect of the reform by comparing the pre- to the post-reform change in divorce rates among unemployed individuals who were affected by the reform with the change in divorce rates among a statistically balanced group of unemployed individuals who was not affected by the reform. Difference-in-differences estimates suggest that the reform caused a 2.8 percentage point increase in divorce (a 25% increase). Effects were concentrated among low-income couples (+58%) and couples with an unemployed husband (+32%) though gender differences are attributable to men's breadwinner status. Female main breadwinners were more strongly affected (+78%) than male main breadwinners (+40%). Results confirm the 'family stress model' which posits that job search and financial stress cause marital conflict. Policymakers should consider a broad array of impacts, including divorce, when considering reductions in unemployment insurance generosity.

RESUMEN

Food insecurity, the inadequate access to food due to financial constraints, affects one-sixth of Canadian households, with substantial health implications. We examine the impact of unemployment and the mitigating effect of Employment Insurance (EI) on household food insecurity in Canada. Using the Canadian Income Survey 2018-2019, we sampled 28,650 households with adult workers 18-64 years old. We used propensity score matching to pair the 4085 households with unemployed workers with 3390 households with only continuously employed workers on their propensity towards unemployment. Among unemployed households, we also matched 2195 EI recipients with 950 nonrecipients. We applied adjusted logistic regression to the two matched samples. Food insecurity affected 15.1% of the households without unemployed workers and 24.6% of their unemployed counterparts, including 22.2% of EI recipients and 27.5% of nonrecipients. Unemployment was associated with 48% (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-1.66; 5.67 percentage points) higher likelihood of food insecurity. This association was significant and similar across income levels, full-time and part-time workers, and household compositions. EI receipt was associated with 23% (aOR 0.77, 95% CI 0.66-0.90; 4.02 percentage points) lower likelihood of food insecurity, but this association was only significant among households with lower income, full-time workers, and children under 18. The findings suggest a broad impact of unemployment on working adults' food insecurity and a substantial mitigating effect by EI on select unemployed workers. Making EI more generous and accessible for part-time workers may help alleviate food insecurity.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

This article describes racial and ethnic differences in mortgage payment difficulties during the COVID-19 pandemic and examines whether disparities exist in the benefits of the unemployment insurance (UI) program. The sample consisted of 80,797 jobless mortgage borrowers who received or waited for UI benefits between August 2020 and May 2022. Considering individual- and state-level variables in multilevel logistic regressions, we examined rates of mortgage delay in the last month and payment concerns about the next month by racial and ethnic group. Minority borrowers were more likely to have a difficulty in paying mortgage than White borrowers. UI recipients-regardless of race and ethnicity-were less likely to experience mortgage difficulties, but the positive unemployment benefit was reduced disproportionately among Blacks. Blacks were also at a higher risk of mortgage difficulties compounded by other pandemic-induced hardships-loss of household, lack of food, and mental illness-even after the receipt of UI. Findings on the intersection between race and ethnicity and UI suggest that pandemic policy interventions should be race conscious and consider the longstanding and systematic barriers experienced by minority mortgage borrowers. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10901-022-10006-w.

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Many Western countries have scaled back social and health expenditure, including decreases in the generosity and coverage of unemployment insurance, resulting in negative effects on general health and well-being at the aggregate level. Yet, research has not sufficiently looked into heterogeneity of such effects across different subgroups of the population. In Sweden, the 2006 unemployment insurance reform, implemented on the 1st of January 2007, encompassed a drastic increase of insurance fund membership fees, reduced benefit levels, and stricter eligibility requirements. As this particularly affected already socioeconomically disadvantaged groups in society, such as foreign-born and low-educated individuals, the current study hypothesise that the reform would also have a greater impact on health outcomes in these groups. METHODS: Based on register data for the total population, we utilise a quasi-experimental approach to investigate heterogeneous health effects of the reform across ethnic background, educational level, employment status, and sex. Due to behaviourally caused diseases having a relatively shorter lag time from exposure, hospitalisation due to alcohol-related disorders serves as the health outcome. A series of regression discontinuity models are used to analyse monthly incidence rates of hospitalisation due to alcohol-related disorders among individuals aged 30-60 during the study period (2001-2012), with the threshold set to the 1st of January 2007. RESULTS: The results suggest that, in general, there was no adverse effect of the reform on incidence rates of hospitalisation due to alcohol-related disorders. A significant increase is nonetheless detected among the unemployed, largely driven by Swedish-born individuals with Swedish-born or foreign-born parents, low-educated individuals, and men. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the Swedish 2006 unemployment insurance reform generally resulted in increasing incidence rates of hospitalisation due to alcohol-related disorders among unemployed population subgroups known to have higher levels of alcohol consumption.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Did individuals' experiences with the harms of the COVID-19 pandemic influence their attitudes towards safety-net programs? To assess this question, we combine rich information about county-level impacts and individual-level perceptions of the early pandemic, repeated measurements of attitudes towards safety-net expansion, and pre-pandemic measurements of related political attitudes. Individuals facing higher county-level impact or greater perceived risks are more likely to support long-term expansions to unemployment insurance and government-provided healthcare when surveyed in June 2020. These differences persist across time, with experiences in the early months of the pandemic remaining strongly predictive of attitudes towards safety-net expansion in early 2021.

RESUMEN

Over the past two decades, opioid overdose deaths contributed to the dramatic rise in all-cause mortality among non-Hispanic Whites. To date, efforts among scholars to understand the role of local area labor market conditions on opioid overdose mortality have led to mixed results. We argue the reason for these disparate findings is scholars have not considered the moderating effects of income support policies such as unemployment insurance. The present study leverages two sources of variation-county mass layoffs and changes in the generosity of state unemployment insurance benefits-to investigate if unemployment benefits moderate the relationship between job loss and county opioid overdose death rates. Our difference-in-differences estimation strategy reveals that the harmful effects of job loss on opioid overdose mortality decline with increasing state unemployment insurance benefit levels. These findings suggest that social policy in the form of income transfers played a crucial role in disrupting the link between job loss and opioid overdose mortality.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience an earnings decline of at least 10 percent. While most workers experiencing large annual earnings declines do not receive unemployment insurance, over half of beneficiaries were made whole in 2020, as unemployment insurance replaced a median of 105 percent of their annual earnings declines. After incorporating unemployment insurance, the likelihood of large earnings declines among low-earning workers was not only smaller than during the Great Recession, but also smaller than in 2019.

RESUMEN

We investigate the optimal response of unemployment insurance to economic shocks, both with and without commitment. The optimal policy with commitment follows a modified Baily-Chetty formula that accounts for job search responses to future UI benefit changes. As a result, the optimal policy with commitment tends to front-load UI, unlike the optimal discretionary policy. In response to shocks intended to mimic those that induced the COVID-19 recession, we find that a large and transitory increase in UI is optimal; and that a policy rule contingent on the change in unemployment, rather than its level, is a good approximation to the optimal policy.

RESUMEN

The article investigates the Covid-19 pandemic related changes in the demand for insurance services in the Unites States due to business interruptions by employing panel vector autoregression models to a dynamic panel data set of 50 states and District of Columbia for three periods of time: 01 January, 2004 to 28 June, 2020; 01 January, 2004 to January 21, 2020 (pre-Covid period); January 22, 2020 to June 28, 2020 (Covid-period). This paper is the first attempt to obtain estimates by applying Google Trends with a search key word "Business Interruption Insurance". The data was collected and reduced to a single scale by US states within the widest possible time span. Google Trends Hits and Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Benefits are used as endogenous variables in the built models. In the constructed models, the impact of the exogenous variable New Covid Cases is compared with that of over US billion-dollar natural disasters. The impulse responses show a positive relationship between the Google Trends Hits and Initial Claims with the Covid-factor having a significant impact on the responses. The conducted analyses reveal that the demand for insurance services due to the Covid-19 outbreak in the United States can be expected to increase 2-6 times, with the total amount of the incurred costs for the economy due to the virus ranging from 0.3 to 7 percent of the US-2019 GDP. The results lay the foundation for recommending the insurance market participants to lobby for adoption of public-private protection schemes being able to secure a more efficient response to the pandemic-related losses that may occur in the future.

RESUMEN

Unemployment insurance is hypothesized to play an important role in mitigating the adverse health consequences of job loss. In this prospective cohort study, we examined whether receiving unemployment benefits is associated with lower mortality among the long-term unemployed. Census records from the 2006 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (n = 2,105,595) were linked to mortality data from 2006-2016. Flexible parametric survival analysis and propensity score matching were used to model time-varying relationships between long-term unemployment (≥20 weeks), unemployment-benefit recipiency, and all-cause mortality. Mortality was consistently lower among unemployed individuals who reported receiving unemployment benefits, relative to matched nonrecipients. For example, mortality at 2 years of follow-up was 18% lower (95% confidence interval (CI): 9, 26) among men receiving benefits and 30% lower (95% CI: 18, 40) among women receiving benefits. After 10 years of follow-up, unemployment-benefit recipiency was associated with 890 (95% CI: 560, 1,230) fewer deaths per 100,000 men and 1,070 (95% CI: 810, 1,320) fewer deaths per 100,000 women. Our findings indicate that receiving unemployment benefits is associated with lower mortality among the long-term unemployed. Expanding access to unemployment insurance may improve population health and reduce health inequalities associated with job loss.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) increased US unemployment benefits by $600 a week. Theory predicts that FPUC should decrease job applications, while the effect on vacancy creation is ambiguous. We estimate the effect of FPUC on job applications and vacancy creation week by week, from March to July 2020, using granular data from the online jobs platform Glassdoor. We exploit variation in the proportional increase in benefits across local labor markets. To isolate the effect of FPUC, we flexibly allow for different trends in local labor markets differentially exposed to the COVID-19 crisis. We verify that trends in outcomes prior to the FPUC do not correlate with future increases in benefits, which supports our identification assumption. First, we find that a 10% increase in unemployment benefits caused a 3.6% decline in applications, but did not decrease vacancy creation; hence, FPUC increased labor market tightness (vacancies/applications). Second, we document that tightness was unusually depressed during the FPUC period. Altogether, our results imply that the positive effect of FPUC on tightness was likely welfare improving: FPUC decreased competition among applicants at a time when jobs were unusually scarce. Our results also help explain prior findings that FPUC did not decrease employment.

RESUMEN

We explore the effect of various factors on interstate differences in weekly unemployment insurance claims, focusing specifically on the determinants over the initial period of the pandemic in the U.S. We consider the effects of COVID-19 cases, state policies enacted in response to COVID-19, relevant provisions of Federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) legislation, and the nature of state economies. We find that during the initial weeks of the pandemic, unemployment claims were driven by consumer reactions to the coronavirus. We find that over the March 21-April 25 period states with greater employment in industries most affected by the virus and which issued orders closing nonessential businesses experienced greater weekly unemployment claims. We find mixed evidence that unemployment benefits affect the number of unemployment claims. However, we find no evidence that the ability to work at home mitigated the increase in unemployment rates during this period, nor evidence that the CARES Act's Payroll Protection Program influenced the level of new unemployment claims.

RESUMEN

This paper discusses the potential long-run effects of large-scale unemployment during the COVID-19 crisis in the labour market on vulnerable job losers and labour market entrants in the United States. The paper begins by contrasting measures of the scale of job loss during the crisis. These measures are paired with estimates from past recessions indicating that the costs of job loss and unemployment can reduce workers' earnings and raise their mortality for several decades. Focusing only on a subset of vulnerable job losers, the potential lifetime earnings losses from job loss related to the COVID-19 pandemic are predicted to be up to $2 trillion. Related losses in employment could imply a lasting reduction in the overall employment-population ratio. For these workers, losses in potential life years could be up to 24 million. Even at the low range, the resulting estimates are substantially larger than losses in potential life years from deaths directly due to COVID-19. New labour market entrants are at risk to suffer long-term losses in earnings and mortality as well. Based partly on experiences in other countries, the paper discusses potential reforms to short-time compensation programmes and unemployment insurance, which could help limit the short- and long-term harm from layoffs going forward.

RESUMEN

We use micro data on earnings together with the details of each state's unemployment insurance (UI) system to compute the distribution of UI benefits after the uniform $600 Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) supplement implemented by the CARES Act. We find that between April and July 2020, 76% of workers eligible for regular Unemployment Compensation have statutory replacement rates above 100%, meaning that they are eligible for benefits which exceed lost wages. The median statutory replacement rate is 145%. We also compute comprehensive replacement rates, which account for employer provided non-wage compensation and differential tax treatment of labor income and UI. 69% of UI-eligible unemployed have comprehensive replacement rates above 100% and the median comprehensive replacement rate is 134%. The presence of the FPUC has important implications for the incidence of the recession and reverses income patterns which would have otherwise arisen across income levels, occupations, and industries.

RESUMEN

A tractable incomplete-market model with endogenous unemployment risk, sticky prices, real wage rigidity and a fiscal side is calibrated to Euro Area countries and used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies. Modeling them as a shock to the extensive margin of labor adjustment - a rise in separations - produces large and persistent negative effects on output, unemployment and welfare, raises precautionary savings and lowers inflation, in line with early evidence about inflation dynamics. Modeling lockdowns as a shock to the intensive margin - a fall in labor utilization - produces small and short-lived macroeconomic and welfare effects, and implies a counterfactual rise in inflation. Conditional on a lockdown (separation) shock, raising public spending or extending UI benefits by large amounts is much more effective in stimulating the economy than during normal times. Quantitatively however, the ability of such policies to flatten the output and unemployment curves remains limited, even though these policies can alleviate a reasonable share of the aggregate welfare losses from the lockdown.

RESUMEN

This paper studies the potential positive externality of unemployment insurance (UI) on infant birth outcomes. Taking advantage of variations of UI benefits across states and over time, we find that UI improves birth outcomes, including mean birth weight, full-term birth weight, low birth weight, fetal growth, and preterm birth. If all states apply the UI schedule of the most generous state (Massachusetts), the average birth weight increases by roughly 19 g.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) started in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. In a few months, it has become a pandemic with devastating consequences for the global economy. By the end of June, with almost 2.6 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, United States is above other countries in the rankings. Furthermore, New York with more than 416 thousand cases is the epicenter of outbreak in the US and had more cases than any other countries in the world until first half of June. In this paper, we use a two-step Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to forecast the effect of the virus outbreak on the economic output of the New York state. In our model, we forecast the effect of the shutdown on New York's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) working with Unemployment Insurance Claim series representing a workforce factor, as well as the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) ridership data indicating the economic activity. We predict annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP to be between -3.99 to -4.299% for the first quarter and between -19.79 to -21.67% for the second quarter of 2020.

RESUMEN

Federalism plays a foundational role in structuring public expectations about how the United States will respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, as both an unprecedented public-health crisis and an economic recession. As in prior crises, state governments are expected to be primary sites of governing authority, especially when it comes to immediate public-health needs, while it is assumed that the federal government will supply critical counter-cyclical measures to stabilize the economy and make up for major revenue shortfalls in the states. Yet there are reasons to believe that these expectations will not be fulfilled, especially when it comes to the critical juncture of the COVID-19 pandemic. Though the federal government has the capacity to engage in counter-cyclical spending to stabilize the economy, existing policy instruments vary in the extent to which they leverage that capacity. This leverage, we argue, depends on how decentralized policy arrangements affect the implementation of both discretionary emergency policies as well as automatic stabilization programs such as Unemployment Insurance, Medicaid, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Evidence on the US response to COVID-19 to date suggests the need for major revisions in the architecture of intergovernmental fiscal policy.