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INTRODUCTION: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are pancreatic premalignant lesions frequently detected incidentally. Choosing between surgery and surveillance for IPMNs is rooted in uncertainty. We characterized patient preferences in IPMN management, and examined associations with patients' uncertainty profiles (risk perception, risk attitude, and uncertainty tolerance). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey drawn from a national opt-in panel. We simulated an encounter following an incidental computed tomography scan finding of an IPMN with a 5% cancer risk. We elicited participants' preferred treatment (surgery versus surveillance). Participant cancer risk perception, risk attitude (risk seeking versus risk averse), and uncertainty tolerance (comfort with the unknown) were determined using validated measures. Multivariate regression models assessed for independent predictors of treatment preference and risk perception. RESULTS: The sample included 520 participants, ages 40-70, racially representative of the US population. Participants preferred surveillance (n = 331, 64%) over surgery (n = 189, 36%). Patients were significantly more likely to prefer surgery as their cancer risk perception increased (absolute difference = 12% from 1.0 standard deviation below to 1.0 standard deviation above the mean, 95% CI 3.5-20.2). Treatment preference was not significantly associated with risk attitude (P = 0.068) or uncertainty tolerance (P = 0.755). However, initial cancer risk perception was significantly associated with both uncertainty tolerance (P = 0.013) and baseline cancer anxiety (risk perception 16.4% versus 65%, not worried at all versus extremely worried, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patient preference varies widely for IPMN and is significantly associated with cancer risk perception, which is, in turn, significantly associated with uncertainty tolerance and cancer anxiety. These findings argue for the preference-sensitive nature of IPMN treatment decisions.

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Uncertainty is a feature of healthcare practice. In recognition of this, multiple health profession governing bodies identify uncertainty tolerance as a healthcare graduate attribute and evaluate uncertainty tolerance within new graduate cohorts. While it is clear that uncertainty tolerance development for healthcare learners is valued, gaps remain for practically addressing this within healthcare curricula. Guiding frameworks for practical approaches supporting uncertainty tolerance development in healthcare learners remains sparse, particularly outside of medicine and in certain geographical locations. As uncertainty tolerance is increasingly recognised as being, at least in part, state-based (e.g. contextually changeable)- a broader understanding of teaching practices supporting uncertainty tolerance development in diverse health professions is warranted. This study explored educators' teaching practices for purposefully stimulating learners' uncertainty tolerance. Semi-structured interviews investigated how academics at a single institution, from diverse fields and health professions, stimulate uncertainty across multiple learning contexts. Framework analysis identified three themes for stimulating uncertainty: Purposeful questioning, Forecasting uncertainty, and Placing learners in unfamiliar environments, with characterisation of these themes (and related subthemes) also described. Many of the identified themes align with aspects of existing learning theories suggesting that curricular frameworks supporting learner uncertainty tolerance development may be informed by theories beyond the boundaries of health professions education research.

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OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to clarify the correlation between uncertainty tolerance (UT) and positive acceptance (PA) in patients with cervical cancer (CC) after surgical treatment. METHODS: A total of 233 patients with CC who had undergone surgery were included and were scored on the UT Scale and Positive Acceptance Scale. In addition, patients were classified according to the length of stay ≥1 week and length of stay <1 week, and the UT score and satisfaction and enterprising score of the two groups were compared. This was performed in order to analyze the effect of length of hospital stay on UT and PA. RESULTS: The mean UT score of 233 patients was 3.74±0.34 and the mean PA score was 1.96±0.20, with a negative correlation and a significant correlation coefficient (r=-0.342, P 0.05). The UT score of post-operative CC patients with length of stay ≥1 week was significantly higher than that of patients with length of stay <1 week, P<0.05. The score of PA in patients with post-operative CC whose hospital stay was ≥1 week was significantly lower than for patients with hospital stays <1 week (P<0.05). UT was negatively correlated with PA in patients with hospital stays < 1 week (r=-0.358, P<0.05). There was a significant negative correlation between UT and PA in patients with hospital stay ≥1 week (r =-0.493, P<0.05). Increased hospitalization time correlated with increased scores of UT, with reductions in scores of PA. CONCLUSION: Post-operative patients with CC had higher scores of UT and lower scores of PA, which were negatively correlated. Increased hospitalization time was linked to a detriment in patient UT and reduced PA. Targeted interventions to improve the level of UT and PA within postoperative CC cases should be developed.

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OBJECTIVE: Understand how physicians' uncertainty tolerance (UT) in clinical care relates to their personal characteristics, perceptions and practices regarding shared decision making (SDM). METHODS: As part of a trial of SDM training about colorectal cancer screening, primary care physicians (n = 67) completed measures of their uncertainty tolerance in medical practice (Anxiety subscale of the Physician's Reactions to Uncertainty Scale, PRUS-A), and their SDM self-efficacy (confidence in SDM skills). Patients (N = 466) completed measures of SDM (SDM Process scale) after a clinical visit. Bivariate regression analyses and multilevel regression analyses examined relationships. RESULTS: Higher UT was associated with greater physician age (p = .01) and years in practice (p = 0.015), but not sex or race. Higher UT was associated with greater SDM self-efficacy (p < 0.001), but not patient-reported SDM. CONCLUSION: Greater age and practice experience predict greater physician UT, suggesting that UT might be improved through training, while UT is associated with greater confidence in SDM, suggesting that improving UT might improve SDM. However, UT was unassociated with patient-reported SDM, raising the need for further studies of these relationships. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Developing and implementing training interventions aimed at increasing physician UT may be a promising way to promote SDM in clinical care.

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Explanatory models of the mind inform our working assumptions about mental illness with direct implications for clinical practice. Neurobiological models assert that the mind can be understood in terms of genetics, chemistry, and neuronal circuits. Growing evidence suggests that clinical deployment of neurobiological models of illness may have unintended adverse effects on patient attitudes, public perception, provider empathy, and the effectiveness of psychiatric treatment. New approaches are needed to find a better language for describing (let alone explaining) the experience of mental illness. To address this gap, we draw upon interdisciplinary sources and semiotic theory to characterize the role of metaphor in the conceptualization and communication of psychopathology. We examine the metaphors recruited by contemporary neurobiological models and metaphor's role in facilitating descriptive clarity or evocative creativity, depending on intention and context. These multiple roles reveal the implications of metaphorical reasoning in clinical practice, including cognitive flexibility, personalized communication, and uncertainty tolerance. With this analysis, we propose a clinical approach that embraces the meta-process of ongoing novel metaphor generation and co-elaboration, or languaging metaphors of psychopathology. Our goal is to bring attention to the value of employing ever-evolving, shapeable metaphorical depictions of psychiatric illness: metaphors that enable a capacity for change in individuals and society, reduce stigma, and nurture recovery.

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BACKGROUND: Uncertainty is pervasive throughout healthcare practice. Uncertainty tolerance (i.e. adaptively responding to perceived uncertainty) is considered to benefit practitioner wellbeing, encourage person-centred care, and support judicious healthcare resource utilisation. Accordingly, uncertainty tolerance development is increasingly referenced within training frameworks. Practical approaches to support healthcare learners' uncertainty tolerance development, however, are lacking. AIMS: Drawing on findings across the literature, and the authors' educational experiences, twelve tips for promoting healthcare learners' uncertainty tolerance were developed. RESULTS: Tips are divided into 1. Tips for Learners, 2. Tips for Educators and Supervisors, and 3. Tips for Healthcare Education Institutions and Systems. Each tip summarises relevant research findings, alongside applications to educational practice. CONCLUSIONS: Approaches to developing uncertainty tolerance balance factors supporting learners through uncertain experiences, with introducing challenges for learners to further develop uncertainty tolerance. These tips can reassure healthcare education stakeholders that developing learner uncertainty tolerance, alongside core knowledge, is achievable.

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The COVID-19 crisis has exposed the public to considerable scientific uncertainty, which may promote vaccine hesitancy among individuals with lower tolerance of uncertainty. In a national sample of US adults in May-June 2020, we examined how both perceptions of uncertainty about COVID-19 and trait-level differences in tolerance of uncertainty arising from various sources (risk, ambiguity, and complexity) are related to vaccine hesitancy-related outcomes, including trust in COVID-19 information, COVID-19 vaccine intentions, and beliefs that COVID-19 vaccines should undergo a longer testing period before being released to the public. Overall, perceptions of COVID-19 uncertainty were not associated with trust in information, vaccine intentions, or beliefs about vaccine testing. However, higher tolerance of risk was associated with lower intentions to get vaccinated, and lower tolerance of ambiguity was associated with lower intentions to get vaccinated and preferring a longer period of vaccine testing. Critically, perceptions of COVID-19 uncertainty and trait-level tolerance for uncertainty also interacted as predicted, such that greater perceived COVID-19 uncertainty was more negatively associated with trust in COVID-19 information among individuals with lower tolerance for risk and ambiguity. Thus, although perceptions of uncertainty regarding COVID-19 may not reduce trust and vaccine hesitancy for all individuals, trait-level tolerance of uncertainty arising from various sources may have both direct and moderating effects on these outcomes. These findings can inform public health communication or other interventions to increase COVID-19 vaccination uptake.

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Uncertainty tolerance, individuals' perceptions/responses to uncertain stimuli, is increasingly recognized as critical to effective healthcare practice. While the Covid-19 pandemic generated collective uncertainty, healthcare-related uncertainty is omnipresent. Correspondingly, there is increasing focus on uncertainty tolerance as a health professional graduate "competency," and a concomitant interest in identifying pedagogy fostering learners' uncertainty tolerance. Despite these calls, practical guidelines for educators are lacking. There is some initial evidence that anatomy education can foster medical students' uncertainty tolerance (e.g., anatomical variation and dissection novelty), however, there remains a knowledge gap regarding robust curriculum-wide uncertainty tolerance teaching strategies. Drawing upon humanities, arts and social sciences (HASS) educators' established uncertainty tolerance pedagogies, this study sought to learn from HASS academics' experiences with, and teaching practices related to, uncertainty pedagogy using a qualitative, exploratory study design. Framework analysis was undertaken using an abductive approach, wherein researchers oscillate between inductive and deductive coding (comparing to the uncertainty tolerance conceptual model). During this analysis, the authors analyzed ~386 min of data from purposively sampled HASS academics' (n = 14) discussions to address the following research questions: (1) What teaching practices do HASS academics' perceive as impacting learners' uncertainty tolerance, and (2) How do HASS academics execute these teaching practices? The results extend current understanding of the moderating effects of education on uncertainty tolerance and supports prior findings that the anatomy learning environment is ripe for supporting learner uncertainty tolerance development. This study adds to growing literature on the powerful moderating effect education has on uncertainty tolerance and proposes translation of HASS uncertainty tolerance teaching practices to enhance anatomy education.

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Given the increased internationalization of organizations and economies of scale concentrated in urban centers, graduates are often expected to relocate for their first job. Based on Hofstede's model and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), we examine the effects of cultural dimensions (individualism-collectivism and uncertainty tolerance) as well as subjective norms (parents' and peers' attitudes towards geographic mobility) on readiness for geographic job-related mobility in samples of German and Spanish business management students ahead of graduation from university. The study involved administering a survey questionnaire to 273 third- and fourth-year business management students of two large universities (one in Germany and another in Spain). Cross-cultural measurement invariance of the measures was confirmed, allowing for comparison of scores across the groups. We found that German students had generally a larger geographical mobility, whose readiness was predicted by parents' and peers' perceived attitude and uncertainty tolerance. Readiness for geographic mobility was also higher when social or material incentives are offered, yet geographic mobility readiness for career incentives and for social incentives was predicted by vertical individualism and horizontal collectivism, respectively. This study is one of the first to examine geographic mobility readiness among undergraduate management students in the two countries, who by nature of their training are expected to be mobile. The study also shows the differential effects of sub-dimensions of the Hofstede cultural dimensions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43545-021-00171-0.

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OBJECTIVES: Drug reimbursement decisions often rely on health technology assessment (HTA). Increasingly, new drugs have limited clinical evidence and uncertain clinical benefit. Our goal was to describe how members of drug advisory committees and other stakeholders conceptualize and tolerate uncertainty and how they rationalize uncertainty tolerance. METHODS: Our triangulated parallel design applied two qualitative methods. We interviewed 31 members of drug advisory committees in Canada and Poland about their information needs and included hypothetical scenarios with uncertain clinical benefits. Respondents speculated about their likely reimbursement recommendation. We analyzed written recommendations of the pan Canadian Oncology Drug Review for drugs with uncertain benefit and compared initial recommendations to the responses from patient and clinician groups. RESULTS: Uncertainty tolerance varied among committee members and across jurisdictions. In the scenario analysis, 7 Canadian and 11 Polish respondents leaned against recommending a hypothetical drug with uncertain clinical benefit, whereas 5 Canadian and 5 Polish respondents leaned in favour. Those against rationalized that uncertainty increases potential harm; those in favour rationalized that patients often have no alternatives. The document analysis revealed that patients had higher uncertainty tolerance in general. CONCLUSIONS: Uncertainty tolerance varies among committee members and other stakeholders depending on their backgrounds and on the decision contexts. We argue that policy guidance around uncertainty management could improve the transparency and consistency of recommendations.

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OBJECTIVE: To compare clinicians' and patients' preferences for disclosure of genomic tumor testing (GTT) results; to determine the sensitivity of these disclosure preferences to uncertainty about the actionability of results; and to explore factors associated with disclosure preferences. METHODS: Community-based oncology clinicians (n = 94) and patients (n = 1121) were surveyed about their preferences for disclosing GTT results with varying levels of uncertainty (Tiers 1, 2, 3). Descriptive and multivariable regression analyses were used to compare clinicians' and patients' disclosure preferences and their sensitivity to uncertainty, and to explore associations between disclosure preferences and sociodemographic, clinical, and psychological factors. RESULTS: Relatively more patients than clinicians preferred disclosure, and their preferences were less sensitive to the uncertainty of GTT results. For patients and clinicians, lower uncertainty sensitivity was associated with positive GTT attitudes; for patients it was also associated with greater uncertainty tolerance and knowledge of uncertainty in GTT. CONCLUSION: Relatively more cancer patients than clinicians prefer disclosure of GTT results, and their preferences are less sensitive to result uncertainty. Uncertainty sensitivity in disclosure preferences is associated with GTT-related attitudes and uncertainty tolerance. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Differences in cancer patients' and clinicians' preferences for disclosure of uncertain GTT results warrant greater attention in cancer care.

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Novel medical technologies, like large-panel genomic tumor testing (GTT), offer great promise but also substantial uncertainty regarding their clinical value and appropriate use. The goal of this study was to understand how clinicians' perceived uncertainty about GTT, and uncertainty tolerance (UT), a construct that describes trait-level differences in individuals' responses to uncertainty, influence attitudes and self-efficacy regarding GTT. Community-based oncologists participating in a study of large-panel GTT completed surveys assessing their perceptions of uncertainty about GTT, and their attitudes and self-efficacy regarding GTT. Multivariable regression analyses examined the relationship between oncologists' perceived uncertainty of GTT and their GTT-related attitudes and self-efficacy, and the potential moderating effect of individual differences in UT. Fifty-seven oncologists completed surveys. Greater perceived uncertainty about GTT was associated with more negative attitudes towards it. This association was moderated by UT, such that lower UT was associated with a stronger negative relationship between perceived uncertainty and attitudes. That is, oncologists who perceive GTT as uncertain, tended to have more negative attitudes, particularly if they were low in the trait of uncertainty tolerance. More research is warranted to understand how uncertainty and uncertainty tolerance influence clinicians' responses to GTT and other novel medical interventions.

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Uncertainty and affect are fundamental and interrelated aspects of the human condition. Uncertainty is often associated with negative affect, but in some circumstances, it is associated with positive affect. In this article, we review different explanations for the varying relationship between uncertainty and affect. We identify "mental simulation" as a key process that links uncertainty to affective states. We suggest that people have a propensity to simulate negative outcomes, which result in a propensity toward negative affective responses to uncertainty. We also propose the existence of several important moderators of this process, including context and individual differences such as uncertainty tolerance, as well as emotion regulation strategies. Finally, we highlight important knowledge gaps and promising areas for future research, both empirical and conceptual, to further elucidate the relationship between uncertainty and affect.

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BackgroundWe sought to establish to what extent decision certainty has been measured in real time and whether high or low levels of certainty correlate with clinical outcomes.MethodsOur pre-specified study protocol is published on PROSPERO, CRD42019128112. We identified prospective studies from Medline, Embase and PsycINFO up to February 2019 that measured real time self-rating of the certainty of a medical decision by a clinician.FindingsNine studies were included and all were generally at high risk of bias. Only one study assessed long-term clinical outcomes: patients rated with high diagnostic uncertainty for heart failure had longer length of stay, increased mortality and higher readmission rates at 1 year than those rated with diagnostic certainty. One other study demonstrated the danger of extreme diagnostic confidence - 7% of cases (24/341) labelled as having either 0% or 100% diagnostic likelihood of heart failure were made in error.ConclusionsThe literature on real time self-rated certainty of clinician decisions is sparse and only relates to diagnostic decisions. Further prospective research with a view to generating hypotheses for testable interventions that can better calibrate clinician certainty with accuracy of decision making could be valuable in reducing diagnostic error and improving outcomes.

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Cognitive control refers to the ability to make correct decisions concurrent to distracting information, and to adapt to conflicting stimulus configurations, eventually promoting goal-directed behavior. Previous research has linked individual differences in cognitive control to psychopathological conditions such as anxiety. However, a link with uncertainty tolerance (UT) has not been tested so far, although both constructs describe cognitive and behavioral performance in ambiguous situations, thus they share some similarities. We probed cognitive control in web-based experimentation (jsPsych) with a simple flanker task (N = 111) and a version without confounds in episodic memory (N = 116). Both experiments revealed two well-established behavioral indices: congruency effects (CEs) and congruency-sequence effects (CSEs). Only small-to-zero correlations emerged between CEs, UT, and need for cognitive closure (NCC), a personality trait inversely related to UT. A subtle correlation (r = .18) was noted in Experiment 2 between NCC and CSE. Throughout, Bayesian analyses provided anecdotal-to-moderate evidence for the null-hypotheses.

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Current guidelines suggest that educators in both medical and veterinary professions should do more to ensure that students can tolerate ambiguity. Designing curricula to achieve this requires the ability to measure and understand differences in ambiguity tolerance among and within professional groups. Although scales have been developed to measure tolerance of ambiguity in both medical and veterinary professions, no comparative studies have been reported. We compared the tolerance of ambiguity of medical and veterinary students, hypothesizing that veterinary students would have higher tolerance of ambiguity, given the greater patient diversity and less well-established evidence base underpinning practice. We conducted a secondary analysis of questionnaire data from first- to fourth-year medical and veterinary students. Tolerance of ambiguity scores were calculated and compared using the TAMSAD scale (29 items validated for the medical student population), the TAVS scale (27 items validated for the veterinary student population), and a scale comprising the 22 items common to both scales. Using the TAMSAD and TAVS scales, medical students had a significantly higher mean tolerance of ambiguity score than veterinary students (56.1 vs. 54.1, p<.001 and 60.4 vs. 58.5, p=.002, respectively) but no difference was seen when only the 22 shared items were compared (56.1 vs. 57.2, p=.513). The results do not support our hypothesis and highlight that different findings can result when different tools are used. Medical students may have slightly higher tolerance of ambiguity than veterinary students, although this depends on the scale used.

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The ability to cope with ambiguity and feelings of uncertainty is an essential part of professional practice. Research with physicians has identified that intolerance of ambiguity or uncertainty is linked to stress, and some authors have hypothesized that there could be an association between intolerance of ambiguity and burnout. We describe the adaptation of the TAMSAD (Tolerance of Ambiguity in Medical Students and Doctors) scale for use with veterinary students. Exploratory factor analysis supports a uni-dimensional structure for the Ambiguity tolerance construct. Although internal reliability of the 29-item TAMSAD scale is reasonable (α=.50), an alternative 27-item scale (drawn from the original 41 items used to develop TAMSAD) shows higher internal reliability for veterinary students (α=.67). We conclude that there is good evidence to support the validity of this latter TAVS (Tolerance of Ambiguity in Veterinary Students) scale to study ambiguity tolerance in veterinary students.

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Research indicates that individuals high in belief in a just world (BJW) are confident that they will not fall victim to unforeseeable disasters. The current study tested the hypothesis that BJW acts as buffer that serves to sustain mood and career prospects of those in need of risk protection. Threat was manipulated by confronting participants with risks regarding their career outlook, and individual differences in threat perception were measured by degree of uncertainty tolerance. As hypothesized, BJW helped protect the mood of participants threatened by serious career-related risks who were unable to tolerate uncertainty. The finding supported the buffer hypothesis regarding mood, but not career prospects, possibly due to a more conscious mindset or variability in self-efficacy. However, BJW was overall positively associated with career prospects. Moreover, it was suggested that BJW can also serve as a personal resource, not only protecting from risk, but also enhancing mood among those with high uncertainty tolerance.

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