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Most drug repurposing studies using real-world data focused on validating, instead of generating, hypotheses. We used tree-based scan statistics to generate repurposing hypotheses for sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i). We used an active-comparator, new-user design to create a 1:1 propensity-score matched cohort of SGLT2i and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) initiators in the MerativeTM MarketScan® Research Databases. Tree-based scan statistics were estimated across an ICD-10-CM-based hierarchical outcome tree using incident outcomes identified from hospital and outpatient diagnoses. We used an adjusted P≤0.01 as the threshold for statistical alert to prioritize associations for evaluation as repurposing signals. We varied the analyses by tree size, scanning level, and clinical settings for outcomes. There were 80,510 matched SGLT2i-DPP4i initiator pairs with 215,333 outcomes among SGLT2i initiators and 223,428 outcomes among DPP4i initiators. There were 18 prioritized associations, which included chronic kidney disease (P=0.0001), an expected signal, and anemia (P=0.0001). Heart failure (P=0.0167), another expected signal, was identified slightly beyond the statistical alert threshold. Narrowing the outcome tree, scanning at different tree levels, and including outcomes from different clinical settings influenced the scan statistics. We identified signals aligning with recently approved indications of SGLT2i, plus potential repurposing signals supported by existing evidence but requiring future validation.

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The tree-based scan statistic is a data mining method used to identify signals of adverse drug reactions in a database of spontaneous reporting systems. It is particularly beneficial when dealing with hierarchical data structures. One may use a retrospective case-control study design from spontaneous reporting systems (SRS) to investigate whether a specific adverse event of interest is associated with certain drugs. However, the existing Bernoulli model of the tree-based scan statistic may not be suitable as it fails to adequately account for dependencies within matched pairs. In this article, we propose signal detection statistics for matched case-control data based on McNemar's test, Wald test for conditional logistic regression, and the likelihood ratio test for a multinomial distribution. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our proposed methods outperform the existing approach in terms of the type I error rate, power, sensitivity, and false detection rate. To illustrate our proposed approach, we applied the three methods and the existing method to detect drug signals for dizziness-related adverse events related to antihypertensive drugs using the database of the Korea Adverse Event Reporting System.

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PURPOSE: It is a priority of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to monitor the safety of medications used during pregnancy. Pregnancy exposure registries and cohort studies utilizing electronic health record data are primary sources of information but are limited by small sample sizes and limited outcome assessment. TreeScan™, a statistical data mining tool, can be applied within the FDA Sentinel System to simultaneously identify multiple potential adverse neonatal and infant outcomes after maternal medication exposure. METHODS: We implemented TreeScan using the Sentinel analytic tools in a cohort of linked live birth deliveries and infants nested in the IBM MarketScan® Research Database. As a case study, we compared first trimester fluoroquinolone use and cephalosporin use. We used the Bernoulli and Poisson TreeScan statistics with compatible propensity score-based study designs for confounding control (matching and stratification) and used multiple propensity score models with various strategies for confounding control to inform best practices. We developed a hierarchical outcome tree including major congenital malformations and outcomes of gestational length and birth weight. RESULTS: A total of 1791 fluoroquinolone-exposed and 8739 cephalosporin-exposed mother-infant pairs were eligible for analysis. Both TreeScan analysis methods resulted in single alerts that were deemed to be due to uncontrolled confounding or otherwise not warranting follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In this implementation of TreeScan using Sentinel analytic tools, we did not observe any new safety signals for fluoroquinolone use in the first trimester. TreeScan, with tailored or high-dimensional propensity scores for confounding control, is a valuable tool in addition to current safety surveillance methods for medications used during pregnancy.

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The tree-based scan statistic (TreeScan; Martin Kulldorff, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts) is a data-mining method that adjusts for multiple testing of correlated hypotheses when screening thousands of potential adverse events for signal identification. Simulation has demonstrated the promise of TreeScan with a propensity score (PS)-matched cohort design. However, it is unclear which variables to include in a PS for applied signal identification studies to simultaneously adjust for confounding across potential outcomes. We selected 4 pairs of medications with well-understood safety profiles. For each pair, we evaluated 5 candidate PSs with different combinations of 1) predefined general covariates (comorbidity, frailty, utilization), 2) empirically selected (data-driven) covariates, and 3) covariates tailored to the drug pair. For each pair, statistical alerting patterns were similar with alternative PSs (≤11 alerts in 7,996 outcomes scanned). Inclusion of covariates tailored to exposure did not appreciably affect screening results. Inclusion of empirically selected covariates can provide better proxy coverage for confounders but can also decrease statistical power. Unlike tailored covariates, empirical and predefined general covariates can be applied "out of the box" for signal identification. The choice of PS depends on the level of concern about residual confounding versus loss of power. Potential signals should be followed by pharmacoepidemiologic assessment where confounding control is tailored to the specific outcome(s) under investigation.

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The scientific community relies on postmarketing approaches to define the risk of using medications in pregnancy because information available at the time of drug approval is limited. Most studies carried out in pregnancy focus on a single outcome or selected outcomes. However, women must balance the benefit of treatment against all possible adverse effects. We aimed to apply and evaluate a tree-based scan statistic data-mining method (TreeScan; Martin Kulldorff, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts) as a safety surveillance approach that allows for simultaneous evaluation of a comprehensive range of adverse pregnancy outcomes, while preserving the overall rate of false-positive alerts. We evaluated TreeScan with a cohort design and adjustment via propensity score techniques, using 2 test cases: 1) opioids and neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome and 2) valproate and congenital malformations, implemented in pregnancy cohorts nested within the Medicaid Analytic eXtract (January 1, 2000-December 31, 2014) and the IBM MarketScan Research Database (IBM, Armonk, New York) (January 1, 2003-September 30, 2015). In both cases, we identified known safety concerns, with only 1 previously unreported alert at the preset statistical alerting threshold. This evaluation shows the promise of TreeScan-based approaches for systematic drug safety monitoring in pregnancy. A targeted screening approach followed by deeper investigation to refine understanding of potential signals will ensure that pregnant women and their physicians have access to the best available evidence to inform treatment decisions.

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Live viral vectors that express heterologous antigens of the target pathogen are being investigated in the development of novel vaccines against serious infectious agents like HIV and Ebola. As some live recombinant vectored vaccines may be replication-competent, a key challenge is defining the length of time for monitoring potential adverse events following immunization (AEFI) in clinical trials and epidemiologic studies. This time period must be chosen with care and based on considerations of pre-clinical and clinical trials data, biological plausibility and practical feasibility. The available options include: (1) adapting from the current relevant regulatory guidelines; (2) convening a panel of experts to review the evidence from a systematic literature search to narrow down a list of likely potential or known AEFI and establish the optimal risk window(s); and (3) conducting "near real-time" prospective monitoring for unknown clustering's of AEFI in validated large linked vaccine safety databases using Rapid Cycle Analysis for pre-specified adverse events of special interest (AESI) and Treescan to identify previously unsuspected outcomes. The risk window established by any of these options could be used along with (4) establishing a registry of clinically validated pre-specified AESI to include in case-control studies. Depending on the infrastructure, human resources and databases available in different countries, the appropriate option or combination of options can be determined by regulatory agencies and investigators.

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Genotype/phenotype association analyses (Treescan) with plasma lipid levels and functional site prediction methods (TreeSAAP and PolyPhen) were performed using sequence data for ANGPTL4 from 3,551 patients in the Dallas Heart Study. Biological assays of rare variants in phenotypic tails and results from a Treescan analysis were used as "known" variants to assess the site prediction abilities of PolyPhen and TreeSAAP. The E40K variant in European Americans and the R278Q variant in African Americans were significantly associated with multiple lipid phenotypes. Combining TreeSAAP and PolyPhen performed well to predict "known" functional variants while reducing noise from false positives.

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