RESUMEN

Amidst pressing global environmental challenges, exacerbated by climate change and the imminent threat of global warming, there is a critical need to assess the efficacy of environmental policies. This study centers its attention on the pivotal role of these policies in addressing environmental concerns. Specifically, our research aims to scrutinize the impact of stringent environmental policies on environmental quality under the theoretical underpinnings of environmental Kuznets curve. To achieve this objective, the study collected data from BRICS-T economies over the period of 1990-2020. This study employed the method of moments quantile regression technique for empirical analysis. Our study validates the presence of the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC hypothesis). Empirical findings reveal the sustained significance of environmental stringency across all quantiles, demonstrating a positive correlation in lower quantiles and a negative correlation in higher quantiles. At lower quantiles, the impact is insignificant initially, but pronounced due to efficiency improvements induced by stringent policies. The effects became negative at middle quantiles, indicating stringent policies might encounter diminishing returns where policy measures start stabilizing ecological impacts. At higher quantiles, the influence of ESI remains significant, reflecting ongoing adaptations in larger economies with higher ecological footprints. This suggests the potential effectiveness of stringent regulatory measures in mitigating environmental impacts and reducing ecological footprints. The identified inverted U-shaped curve signifies that while stringent policies may not inherently enhance environmental health, beyond a certain threshold, they can indeed contribute to its improvement. Our policy recommendation advocates for the widespread adoption and promotion of such stringent measures to safeguard environmental health.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown policies in Germany on frequency and treatment of peritonsillar abscess at a tertiary referral center in Germany. METHODS: This retrospective case-control study analyzed all cases of peritonsillar abscess treated from 03/01/2018 until 08/30/2022 at Augsburg ENT University Hospital, Germany, through abscess tonsillectomy and/ or incisional drainage. Data was collected and correlated to Covid-19 Stringency Index using codes based on the Institute for Hospital Remuneration System in Germany. After excluding 303 cases, 975 abscess tonsillectomy and incisional drainage cases were studied, with the first German lockdown serving as cutoff date. Treatment algorithm was maintained regardless of co-infection with Covid-19. RESULTS: A total of 174 patients received abscess tonsillectomy as therapy, while 801 patients underwent incisional drainage. Before the first German lockdown, 452 patients received incisional drainage. Since the pandemic, 349 cases of incisional drainage were registered (OR = 0.54, 95%-CI [0.27-0.86], p = 0.04), despite no significant change in the percentage of peritonsillar abscess of all ENT emergencies. The mean age at presentation with PTA was 39.8 years, and the rate of relapse was 4.0%. The study found no association between the scale of policy measures and treatment (OR = 1.00, 95%-CI [0.99-1.01], p = 0.52). CONCLUSION: The results indicate that, despite the reduction in capacities due to Covid-19, the proportion of patients with peritonsillar abscess treated through abscess tonsillectomy increased at Augsburg ENT University Hospital since the first German lockdown. Hospitalization times could still be reduced with comparable relapse rates.

RESUMEN

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to determine whether BMI in early childhood was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures, and whether it was associated with the risk for islet autoimmunity. METHODS: Between February 2018 and May 2023, data on BMI and islet autoimmunity were collected from 1050 children enrolled in the Primary Oral Insulin Trial, aged from 4.0 months to 5.5 years of age. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was defined as 18 March 2020, and a stringency index was used to assess the stringency of containment measures. Islet autoimmunity was defined as either the development of persistent confirmed multiple islet autoantibodies, or the development of one or more islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. Multivariate linear mixed-effect, linear and logistic regression methods were applied to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the stringency index on early-childhood BMI measurements (BMI as a time-varying variable, BMI at 9 months of age and overweight risk at 9 months of age), and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of BMI measurements on islet autoimmunity risk. RESULTS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased time-varying BMI (ß = 0.39; 95% CI 0.30, 0.47) and overweight risk at 9 months (ß = 0.44; 95% CI 0.03, 0.84). During the COVID-19 pandemic, a higher stringency index was positively associated with time-varying BMI (ß = 0.02; 95% CI 0.00, 0.04 per 10 units increase), BMI at 9 months (ß = 0.13; 95% CI 0.01, 0.25) and overweight risk at 9 months (ß = 0.23; 95% CI 0.03, 0.43). A higher age-corrected BMI and overweight risk at 9 months were associated with increased risk for developing islet autoimmunity up to 5.5 years of age (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01, 1.32 and HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.00, 2.82, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Early-childhood BMI increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and was influenced by the level of restrictions during the pandemic. Controlling for the COVID-19 pandemic, elevated BMI during early childhood was associated with increased risk for childhood islet autoimmunity in children with genetic susceptibility to type 1 diabetes.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the supply of formal and informal home care to older adults in many countries across the world. This study aims to compare the initial picture of how the supply of formal and informal home care to older adults in European countries and Israel changed during the first pandemic year (from mid-2020 to mid-2021) and to examine the changes that these countries made in the provision of adequate care to older adults. Using data from the two COVID-19 waves of SHARE, we show that the provision of formal home care services improved in the investigated period, as in 2021 the share of those who reported difficulties in receiving formal home care dropped significantly compared to the previous year. By contrast, informal care provision patterns experienced a growing polarization, with some countries continuing in reporting a strong support from this source, and others moving towards a remarkable reduction in the help coming from informal networks. These findings can serve as a basis for the development of evidence-based recommendations that can inform future care policies at the national level and to implement more sustainable models for older adults living in the community.

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In the absence of an effective treatment method or vaccine, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic elicited a wide range of unprecedented restriction policies aimed at mitigating and suppressing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These policies and their Stringency Index (SI) of more than 160 countries were systematically recorded in the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) data set. The SI is a summary measure of the overall strictness of these policies. However, the OxCGRT SI may not fully reflect the stringency levels of the restriction policies implemented in Korea. Korea implemented 33 COVID-19 restriction policies targeting 4 areas: public facilities, public events, social gatherings, and religious gatherings. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop new Korea Stringency Indices (KSIs) that reflect the stringency levels of Korea's restriction policies better and to determine which government-implemented policies were most effective in managing the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea. METHODS: The random forest method was used to calculate the new KSIs using feature importance values and determine their effectiveness in managing daily COVID-19 confirmed cases. Five analysis periods were considered, including November 01, 2020, to January 20, 2021 (Period 1), January 20, 2021, to June 27, 2021 (Period 2), November 01, 2020, to June 27, 2021 (Period 3), June 27, 2021, to November 01, 2021 (Period 4), and November 01, 2021, to April 24, 2022 (Period 5). RESULTS: Among the KSIs, public facilities in period 4, public events in period 2, religious gatherings in periods 1 and 3, and social gatherings in period 5 had the highest importance. Among the public facilities, policies associated with operation hour restrictions in cinemas, restaurants, PC rooms, indoor sports facilities, karaoke, coffee shops, night entertainment facilities, and baths or saunas had the highest importance across all analysis periods. Strong positive correlations were observed between daily confirmed cases and public facilities, religious gatherings, and public events in period 1 of the pandemic. From then, weaker and negative correlations were observed in the remaining analysis periods. The comparison with the OxCGRT SI showed that the SI had a relatively lower feature importance and correlation with daily confirmed cases than the proposed KSIs, making KSIs more effective than SI. CONCLUSIONS: Restriction policies targeting public facilities were the most effective among the policies analyzed. In addition, different periods call for the enforcement of different policies given their effectiveness varies during the pandemic.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced short-term fertility declines in 2020-2021, a development which did not materialize in the majority of German-speaking and Nordic countries. However, more recent birth statistics show a steep fertility decline in 2022. We aim to provide empirical evidence on the unexpected birth decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden. We rely on monthly birth statistics and present seasonally adjusted monthly Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Germany and Sweden. We relate the nine-month lagged fertility rates to contextual developments regarding COVID-19. The seasonally adjusted monthly TFR of Germany dropped from 1.5-1.6 in 2021 to 1.4 in early 2022 and again in autumn 2022, a decline of about 10% in several months. In Sweden, the corresponding TFR dropped from about 1.7 in 2021 to 1.5-1.6 in 2022, a decline of almost 10%. There is no association of the fertility trends with changes in unemployment, infection rates, or COVID-19 deaths, but a strong association with the onset of vaccination programmes and the weakening of pandemic-related restrictions. The fertility decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden is remarkable. Common explanations of fertility change during the pandemic do not apply. The association between the onset of mass vaccinations and subsequent fertility decline indicates that women adjusted their behaviour to get vaccinated before becoming pregnant. Fertility decreased as societies were opening up with more normalized life conditions. We provide novel information on fertility declines and the COVID-19-fertility nexus during and in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 pandemic, along with oppressive government interventions, placed a heavy burden on mental health. Suicide mortality is an outcome that may have been affected by the stringency of these lockdown measures. The aim of this study is to examine the association between lockdown intensity, measured by the Stringency Index, and suicide mortality rates in US states from March 2020 to December 2021. To this end, Bayesian methods were used for the estimation of the association for the total population, as well as by gender, and by race. Results show a small negative association between lockdown intensity and suicide mortality rates which applies to most of the examined populations. Future research will determine if this relationship remains the same after the pandemic.

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: Vaccination is crucial to fighting the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. A large body of literature investigates the effect of the initiation of the COVID-19 vaccination in case numbers in Turkey, including the resistance and willingness to taking the vaccine. The effect of early relaxation in the Turkish public with the initiation of vaccination on new daily cases is unknown. METHODS: This study performs an event study analysis to explore the pre-relaxation effect of vaccination on the Turkish public by using daily data of new cases, stringency index, and residential mobility. Two events are comparatively defined as the vaccination of the health personnel (Event 1) and the citizens age 65 and over (Event 2). The initial dates of these events are January 13 and February 12, 2021, respectively. The length of the estimation window is determined as 14 days for the 2 events. To represent only the early stages of the vaccination, the study period ends on April 12, 2021. Thus, whereas the event window of Event 1 includes 90 observations, Event 2 covers 60 observations. RESULTS: While average values of residential mobility, stringency index, and daily numbers of cases are 15.36, 71.03, and 11 978.93 in the estimation window for Event 1, these averages are 8.89, 70.88, and 17 303.20 in the event window. For Event 2, the same average values are 9.14, 69.38, and 7 664.93 in the estimation window and 8.25, 71.12, and 22 319.10 in the event window. When 14-day abnormal growth rates of the daily number of cases for Event 1 and Event 2 are compared, it is observed that Event 1 has negative growth rates initially and reaches a 7.59% growth at most. On the other hand, Event 2 starts with a 1.11% growth rate, and having a steady increase, it reaches a 23.70% growth in the last 14 days of the study period. CONCLUSION: The preliminary result shows that, despite taking more strict governmental measures, while residential mobility decreases, the daily number of COVID-19 cases increases in the early stages of vaccination compared to short pre-periods of it. This indicates that the initiation of vaccination leads to early behavioral relaxation in public. Moreover, the effect of Event 2 on the case numbers is more significant and immediate, compared to that of Event 1, which may be linked to the characteristic of the Turkish culture being more sensitive to the older adult population.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Background: Repurposing registered drugs could reduce coronavirus disease (COVID-19) burden before novel drugs are authorized. Little is known about how the pandemic and imposed restrictions changed their dispensing. We aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on repurposed drugs dispensing in the Netherlands. Methods: We performed interrupted time-series study using University of Groningen prescription database IADB.nl to evaluate dispensing trends of 24 repurposed drugs before (2017-February 2020) and after (March 2020-2021) the pandemic' start. Primary outcomes were monthly prevalence and incidence rates. An autoregressive integrated moving average model assessed the effect of pandemic and stringency index (measuring strictness of government's restriction policies). Results: Annual number of IADB.nl population ranged from 919,697 to 952,400. Generally, dispensing of common long-term-used drugs was not significantly affected by pandemic. The prevalence of antibacterials (-4.20 users per 1000 people), antivirals (-0.04), corticosteroids (-1.29), prednisolone (-1.32), calcium channel blocker (-0.41), and diuretics (-1.29) was lower than expected after the pandemic's start, while the prevalence of ivermectin (0.07), sulfonylureas (0.15), sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor (0.17), and anticoagulants (1.95) was higher than expected. The pandemic was associated with statistically significant decreases in the incidence of antibacterials (-1.21), corticosteroids (-0.60), prednisolone (-0.64) and anticoagulants (-0.02), and increases in ivermectin (0.02), aggregated antidiabetic drugs (0.13), and SGLT2 inhibitors (0.06). These trends were positively associated with pandemic and negatively associated with stringency index. Conclusion: Dispensing of most drugs was not significantly associated with pandemic and government's response. Despite some statistically significant disruptions, these were not necessarily clinically relevant due to small absolute differences observed.

RESUMEN

This prospective longitudinal study measured sex-specific changes in depression, anxiety, and stress scores using, validated Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), and the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) in a cohort of 1445 post-secondary students (500 males, 945 females) assessed at three time points from December 2020 to January 2022. Participants were ascertained from a population of 15,585 students with in-person activities on campus at baseline and recruited from December 2020 to January 2021. We also assessed how sociodemographic characteristics influenced students' mental health outcomes. Inverse probability weighting was used to account for missing data and attrition. Linear mixed effects models were used to analyze the relationship between the mental health scores in each questionnaire, demographic and academic data, and public health stringency measured by the local stringency index. No change was observed in questionnaire scores over time for males and females, but the stringency index was significantly associated with increased stress. Being in a non-health-related-field or being white affected males and females differently for stress and anxiety, but not depression. Demographics tended to be more influential on females' mental health than males. In conclusion, mental health resource allocation in time of emerging pandemic could benefit from targeted interventions.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Strict measures have curbed the spread of COVID-19, but waste generation and movement limitations have had an unintended impact on the environment over the past 3 years (2020-2022). Many studies have summarized the observed and potential environmental impacts associated with COVID-19, however, only a few have quantified and compared the effects of these unintended environmental impacts; moreover, whether COVID-19 policy stringency had the same effects on the main environmental topic (i.e., CO2 emissions) across the 3 years remains unclear. To answer these questions, we conducted a systematic review of the recent literature and analyzed the main findings. We found that the positive environmental effects of COVID-19 have received more attention than the negative ones (50.6 % versus 35.7 %), especially in emissions reduction (34 % of total literature). Medical waste (14.5 %) received the highest attention among the negative impacts. Although global emission reduction, especially in terms of CO2, has received significant attention, the positive impacts were temporary and only detected in 2020. Strict COVID-19 policies had a more profound and significant effect on CO2 emissions in the aviation sector than in the power and industry sectors. For example, compared with 2019, international aviation related CO2 emissions dropped by 59 %, 49 %, and 25 % in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, while industry related ones dropped by only 3.16 % in 2020. According to our developed evaluation matrix, medical wastes and their associated effects, including the persistent pollution caused by antibiotic resistance genes, heavy metals and microplastics, are the main challenges post the pandemic, especially in China and India, which may counteract the temporary environmental benefits of COVID-19. Overall, the presented results demonstrate methods to quantify the environmental effects of COVID-19 and provide directions for policymakers to develop measures to address the associated environmental issues in the post-COVID-19 world.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of a sudden shock from the COVID-19 epidemic on the behavioral bias of investors in the stock market of Iran as a developing country. The study also examines whether the government response to the COVID-19 pandemic can reduce investor herding behavior. We have used the Cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) to measure securities dispersion from market returns. The studied period includes the cross-sectional data of the top 50 companies listed on the stock exchange during 2381 working days of the market (from March 1, 2012, to March 1, 2022). Furthermore, we use the semi-parametric estimator of the quantile regression for the data on the Iranian government response during the COVID-19 epidemic taken from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). The main findings are in order. First, results show that the COVID-19 pandemic caused the formation of herding behavior aggravated by market volatility. Second, we document that the government response stringency index is unsuccessful in reducing investor herding behavior in the Iranian stock market. Finally, given the evidence that herding behavior, as a form of behavioral distortion, can drive security prices away from equilibrium values supported by fundamentals and cause price bubbles, our findings have important implications for policymakers and investors to mitigate herding effects and mis valuations.

RESUMEN

Background: We estimated the association between the level of restriction in nine different fields of activity and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in Spain, from 15 September 2020 to 9 May 2021. Methods: A stringency index (0-1) was created for each Spanish province (n = 50) daily. A hierarchical multiplicative model was fitted. The median of coefficients across provinces (95% bootstrap confidence intervals) quantified the effect of increasing one standard deviation in the stringency index over the logarithmic return of the weekly percentage variation of the 7-days SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence, lagged 12 days. Results: Overall, increasing restrictions reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 22% (RR = 0.78; one-sided 95%CI: 0, 0.82) in 1 week, with highest effects for culture and leisure 14% (0.86; 0, 0.98), social distancing 13% (0.87; 0, 0.95), indoor restaurants 10% (0.90; 0, 0.95) and indoor sports 6% (0.94; 0, 0.98). In a reduced model with seven fields, culture and leisure no longer had a significant effect while ceremonies decreased transmission by 5% (0.95; 0, 0.96). Models R 2 was around 70%. Conclusion: Increased restrictions decreased COVID-19 transmission. Limitations include remaining collinearity between fields, and somewhat artificial quantification of qualitative restrictions, so the exact attribution of the effect to specific areas must be done with caution.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication consumption globally and nationally using pharmaceutical sales data from 2014 to 2021 across 47 countries and regions. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was applied to the time series until the end of 2019 at country level and used for the prediction of the ADHD medication consumption in 2020 and 2021. The deviations from the actual to the forecasted sales, which simulate the development without the emergence of COVID-19, yield estimates for the pandemic's impact. In 36 of the 47 countries and regions, the actual sales in 2020 were lower than predicted, with an average relative drop of 6.2% in defined daily doses (DDD) per 1000 inhabitants per day at country-level. In 2021, most countries recorded actually higher ADHD medication use than predicted at the end of 2019. On average, the consumption increased per country by 1.60%. The deviations strongly correlate with the stringency of anti-pandemic government policies. The findings suggest that the pandemic led to a substantially lower consumption of ADHD medication in 2020. However, in 2021 the pandemic had an accelerating effect as the increasing consumption trends are more pronounced than before the pandemic.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Introduction: Containment and closure policies are effective measures used in the early stages of a highly transmissible global pandemic such as COVID-19 to mitigate the spread and reduce transmissions. However, these policies can have negative impacts on the economy and personal freedom. Governments must carefully consider the necessity of increasing their stringency. Local contexts and priorities regarding domestic disease outbreaks and the risk of imported cases from other countries may vary among different countries, and could influence the decision to increase containment measures. Thus, this study aimed to differentiate the impacts of these affecting factors on the stringency of governmental containment measures through cross-continental comparisons. Methods: This study utilized a zero/one inflated beta (ZOIB) regression model to investigate how domestic epidemic, imported risk, and local context affect government responses to a pandemic. We used a country's weekly confirmed case and death numbers as a measure of its domestic threat. The imported risk was measured using a combination of weekly new cases in each country and the air passenger traffic between countries. Results: The findings indicate that domestic case numbers are a primary concern for governments when deciding to increase policy stringency. Countries with higher development levels tend to implement stricter policies as they can better handle the negative impacts. Additionally, there is an interaction between case numbers and development level, with countries at the second or third highest development level focusing more on domestic outbreaks than imported risks, while those at the highest level have similar concerns for both. Conclusions: We concluded that most countries adjust policies' stringency majorly based on the variation of domestic case number rather than the other pandemic factors and the countries with a high development level tend to implement strict policies since their socio-economical condition could afford such policies. These insights can aid policymakers in improving containment and closure policies for future pandemics.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

This paper investigates the effectiveness of government measures implemented against COVID-19 and the factors influencing a country's economic growth from a global perspective. With the help of the data of the Government Response Stringency Index (GRSI), Google mobility, and confirmed COVID-19 daily cases, we conducted a panel model for 105 countries and regions from 11 March 2020 to 31 June 2021 to explore the effects of response policies in different countries against the pandemic. First, the results showed that staying in residential places had the strongest correlation with confirmed cases. Second, in countries with higher government stringency, stay-at-home policies carried out in the early spread of the pandemic had the most effective the impact. In addition, the results have also been strictly robustly analyzed by applying the propensity score matching (PSM) method. Third, after reconstructing a panel data of 47 OECD countries, we further concluded that governments should take stricter restrictive measures in response to COVID-19. Even though it may also cause a shock to the market in the short term, this may not be sustainable. As long as the policy response is justified, it will moderate the negative effect on the economy over time, and finally have a positive effect.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the impact of lockdown policies on the recruitment of an ongoing cohort study. STUDY DESIGN: We performed descriptive analyses of recruitment, dropout, and baseline characteristics over time. Oxford Stringency Index was used to assess the impact of regional constraints on recruitment. RESULTS: Drop in recruitment clearly reflected the Stringency Index within the first months of the pandemic. Unexpectedly, drop-out rates declined in 2020/2021. Baseline characteristics were comparable, yet younger women were recruited more frequently during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: There was no strong evidence of recruitment bias due to the pandemic. IMPLICATIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic is a potential source of bias for ongoing studies and its influence on the study conduct (e.g., recruitment, drop-out) should be thoroughly evaluated to ensure that study results are not biased in this regard. The Oxford's Government Stringency Index can be used to identify pandemic-affected time periods.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Biliary atresia (BA) is a rare cholangiopathy where one of the proposed aetiological mechanisms is an infectious viral trigger. Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID) lockdown restrictions were implemented to reduce the transmission of infections. Strictness of lockdown varied across European countries. This study aimed to investigate if there was an association between strictness of lockdown and change in isolated BA (IBA) incidence in Europe. METHODS: We approached European centres involved in the European Reference Network RARE-LIVER. We included IBA patients born between 2015 and June 2020. We calculated the number of IBA patients born per centre per month. The Stringency Index (SI) was used as lockdown strictness indicator. The association between percentage change of mean number of IBA patients born per month and the SI was assessed. RESULTS: We included 412 IBA patients from thirteen different centres. The median number of patients per month did not change: 6 (1-15) pre-lockdown and 7 (6-9) during lockdown (p = 0.34). There was an inverse association between SI and percentage change in IBA (B = -0.73, p = 0.03). Median age at Kasai portoenterostomy (days) did not differ between time periods (51 (9-179) vs. 53 (19-126), p = 0.73). CONCLUSION: In this European study, a stricter COVID-lockdown was seemingly accompanied by a simultaneous larger decrease in the number of IBA patients born per month in the lockdown. Results should be interpreted with caution due to the assumptions and limitations of the analysis.

RESUMEN

This study examines how green bonds and environmental, social and governance (ESG) stock market returns have reacted to the COVID-19 crisis in the US. Unlike the Standard and Poor's (S&P) 500 index, the response of green bonds and ESG markets to pandemic progress is nonlinear: A low (large) level of confirmed new cases of COVID-19 has a positive (negative) impact. Furthermore, the implemented containment policies (stringency measures and vaccination campaigns) are positively valued, but their simultaneous use is perceived by investors as a bad signal. Overall, our findings question the resilience of investments in green bonds and ESG markets.

RESUMEN

We use the COVID-19 stringency index to investigate the relationship among COVID-19 government restriction policy, COVID-19 vaccination and stock markets. We find that the impact of the change rate of COVID-19 stringency index on stock returns turns from significant in the pre-vaccination period to insignificant in the post-vaccination period. Bad news from COVID-19 restriction policy cause more stock volatilities than good news. The advent of COVID-19 vaccination weakens the linkage of COVID-19 stringency index and stock market, while COVID-19 stringency index only plays a partially mediate role in the correlation between COVID-19 cumulative vaccination rate and stock market performance.