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A severity effect has previously been documented, whereby numerical translations of verbal probability expressions are higher for severe outcomes than for non-severe outcomes. Recent work has additionally shown the same effect in the opposite direction (translating numerical probabilities into words). Here, we aimed to test whether these effects lead to an escalation of subjective probabilities across a communication chain. In four 'communication chain' studies, participants at each communication stage either translated a verbal probability expression into a number, or a number into a verbal expression (where the probability to be translated was yoked to a previous participant). Across these four studies, we found a general Probability Escalation Effect, whereby subjective probabilities increased with subsequent communications for severe, non-severe and positive events. Having ruled out some alternative explanations, we propose that the most likely explanation is in terms of communications directing attention towards an event's occurrence. Probability estimates of focal outcomes increase across communication stages.

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This study examines attenuated risk responses among individuals who do not adhere to preventive COVID-19 measures (e.g., antimaskers). Guided by the Social Amplification of Risk Model, a survey (N = 373) of nonabiding populations showed that news media use was positively associated with risk perceptions, information seeking and sharing, and preventive measure adoption. By contrast, negative emotions to COVID-19 and perceived knowledge hindered preventive measure adoption from increased information seeking and sharing. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

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Harmful algae blooms (HABs) occur in water bodies throughout the globe and can have multi-faceted impacts on tourism. However, little is known of the magnitude of economic losses to the tourism sector as a result of HABs. There is limited understanding of the empirical relationships between HAB intensity and duration, and the effects of this phenomenon on the tourism sector. This study is based in the state of Florida, USA, a notable sun, sand, and sea destination in the western hemisphere, where blooms of a marine harmful algae are a recurrent threat to coastal tourism. The empirical framework is based on a month and county-level panel database that combines sales by tourism-related businesses with observations from the official HAB surveillance system of the state of Florida. We use time and space fixed-effects regressions to estimate the loss in tourism revenue associated with one additional day of red tide. Results indicate that impacts of HABs on tourism do not follow a linear pattern with increasing HAB concentrations, but rather appear to follow an inverted-U pattern. In other words, higher concentrations of the HAB organism do not necessarily imply higher economic losses, suggesting that the impacts of HABs on tourism are not driven solely by the biophysical element of cell density. Rather, these impacts appear to be mediated and amplified by human dimensions. The loss to tourism-related businesses due to the 2018 Florida red tide bloom was estimated to be $2.7 billion USD, which implies that HABs and their impact on tourism can be considered as a potential 'billion-dollar' disaster.

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This study examines the proliferation of COVID-19 misinformation through Plandemic-a pseudo-documentary of COVID-19 conspiracy theories-on social media and examines how factors such as (a) themes of misinformation, (b) types of misinformation, (c) sources of misinformation, (d) emotions of misinformation, and (e) fact-checking labels amplify or attenuate online misinformation during the early days of the pandemic. Using CrowdTangle, a Facebook API, we collected a total of 5732 publicly available Facebook pages posts containing Plandemic-related keywords from January 1 to December 19, 2020. A random sample of 600 posts was subsequently coded, and the data were analyzed using negative binomial regression to examine factors associated with amplification and attenuation. Overall, the extended an extended Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) provided a theoretical lens to understand why certain misinformation was amplified, while others were attenuated. As for posts with misinformation, results showed that themes related to private firms, treatment and prevention of virus transmission, diagnosis and health impacts, virus origins, and social impact were more likely to be amplified. While the different types of misinformation (manipulated, fabricated, or satire) and emotions were not associated with amplification, the type of fact-check labels did influence the virality of misinformation. Specifically, posts that were flagged as false by Facebook were more likely to be amplified, while the virality of posts flagged as containing partially false information was attenuated. Theoretical and practical implications were discussed.

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While previous studies suggest that women have higher anxiety than men regarding COVID-19, underlying mechanisms remain unclear. This study tries to explain the mechanisms by gender difference in social interaction based on a theory of social amplification of risk framework (SARF). We surveyed older adults in Japan regarding their anxiety regarding COVID-19, as well as the frequencies of their direct and indirect social interaction in July 2020 (N = 1,587, aged 78-99 years). To explore the way in which gender and anxiety regarding COVID-19 were mediated by these two types of social interactions, MODEL4 of SPSS's Process MACRO was applied to the data. We found that older women interacted more directly and indirectly with others than did older men. And, direct social interaction was negatively and related, but indirect social interaction was positively related to older adults' anxiety regarding COVID-19. Furthermore, direct social interaction was related to older women's low anxiety regarding COVID-19, whereas indirect social interaction was related to older women's high anxiety regarding COVID-19. The findings of our study suggest that the degree of anxiety regarding COVID-19 among older women may be dependent upon the types of social interaction they have with others.

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Drawing upon theories of risk and decision making, we present a theoretical framework for how the emotional attributes of social media content influence risk behaviors. We apply our framework to understanding how COVID-19 vaccination Twitter posts influence acceptance of the vaccine in Peru, the country with the highest relative number of COVID-19 excess deaths. By employing computational methods, topic modeling, and vector autoregressive time series analysis, we show that the prominence of expressed emotions about COVID-19 vaccination in social media content is associated with the daily percentage of Peruvian social media survey respondents who are vaccine-accepting over 231 days. Our findings show that net (positive) sentiment and trust emotions expressed in tweets about COVID-19 are positively associated with vaccine acceptance among survey respondents one day after the post occurs. This study demonstrates that the emotional attributes of social media content, besides veracity or informational attributes, may influence vaccine acceptance for better or worse based on its valence.

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This study examined the risk preventive responses of individuals, especially those who do not adhere to preventive measures (e.g. anti-maskers) for COVID-19, by integrating three dominant theories in risk and health communication. The complex causal relationship between motivational elements and individuals' preventive behavior adoption was studied using Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. With a survey (N = 372) of non-abiding populations, this study found generalizable and unique configurations of motivational elements. Different effects of key motivational variables from three theories were found with different demographic factors. Theoretical and practical implications were also discussed.

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This study aims to examine how the process of online support obtainment may affect cognitive and behavioral coping during a public crisis. A cross-sectional online survey (N = 555) was conducted during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. Our findings revealed that informational support, obtained primarily through passive and private online involvement, led to increased risk perceptions of COVID-19; emotional support, obtained mainly via private online involvement, appeared to elicit higher perceived efficacy to cope with the crisis. People's engagement in preventive behaviors was found to be affected by efficacy perceptions, but not by risk perceptions. The results suggested that online social support functioned as a double-edged sword to affect people's coping with a public crisis.

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The social amplification of risk framework (SARF) was developed to help comprehend how emerging contributions about the psychological, social, and cultural dimensions of risk could work in unison to impact decision making about risk. The framework proposed that risks are amplified or attenuated by interested parties employing different rhetorical strategies to give information about risk a certain "spin." The original literature identified four "attributes of information." However, despite the longevity of the framework, these have not been explicated in detail. Here we add depth and clarity by examining how amplification stations send risk signals that amplify or attenuate risk by emphasizing these different attributes of information. Drawing on a wealth of qualitative data from two case studies of offshore wind turbine siting off the coasts of Maryland and Delaware and guided by an extensive literature review, we reveal the strategies interested parties are using to influence siting decisions and risk management. The paper explores the usefulness of SARF in organizing qualitative information and sharpening insights on participatory risk governance and the nuances of public responses to a relatively new low-carbon technology. The authors conclude that the framework is valuable for analyzing stakeholder information while also recognizing limitations that may be addressed with some targeted future research.

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Climate risks are motivating adaptation with local municipal actors becoming key participants in a complex web of climate risk communication. Some cities have created civil service positions focused on climate resilience. We conducted interviews with six such individuals in four U.S. Atlantic coast cities to investigate how they think about and negotiate communication challenges associated with implementation of climate resilience strategies. We grounded our study in the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF), which despite its longevity and wide usage has rarely been used to understand the role of government actors. We found substantial complexity in how these government representatives develop both amplifying and attenuating communication strategies as they often simultaneously reach multiple audiences holding different perspectives. They are familiar with and employ risk communication practices. However, they report needing to modify their efforts as climate adaptation issues and goals evolve over time, and experiment in situations, such as discussions of retreat, where established communication practices provide insufficient guidance. In order to develop a deeper understanding of the governmental risk communication actors, we suggest four potential avenues for taking advantage of the strengths of SARF as a framework for connecting and integrating with other models and theories. We also propose several directions for research based on the challenges these practitioners are finding in their work to facilitate adaptation to climate risks. The activity of government actors is rich in its applied risk communication practice and its challenges offer new questions to expand our thinking about the SARF and risk communication more broadly.

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Social media trust and sharing behaviors have considerable implications on how risk is being amplified or attenuated at early stages of pandemic outbreaks and may undermine subsequent risk communication efforts. A survey conducted in February 2020 in the United States examined factors affecting information sharing behaviors and social amplification or attenuation of risk on Twitter among U.S. citizens at the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak. Building on the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), the study suggests the importance of factors such as online discussion, information seeking behaviors, blame and anger, trust in various types of Twitter accounts and misinformation concerns in influencing the spread of risk information during the incipient stages of a crisis when the publics rely primarily on social media for information. An attenuation of risk was found among the US public, as indicated by the overall low sharing behaviors. Findings also imply that (dis)trust and misinformation concerns on social media sources, and inconsistencies in early risk messaging may have contributed to the attenuation of risk and low risk knowledge among the US publics at the early stage of the outbreak, further problematizing subsequent risk communication efforts.

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The evolution of risk identification and ultimately the public and private responses that have become known collectively as the "opioid crisis" is an important case study in risk management due to the reach and magnitude of its impacts. This article examines a number of "signals" related to opioid risks using the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) to investigate a limited set of public-sector activities and policy responses. We evaluate whether the SARF presents an effective lens to examine the serious shortcomings of risk management of opioid use, which has a history of risk attenuation and, more recently, evidence of risk amplification. Our goal in this article is limited to addressing "goodness of fit" of the SARF as a descriptive tool. We consider whether the SARF effectively reveals important gaps in public risk management responses for the opioid example and other similarly situated societal risk problems. Applying SARF supports that its suggested relationship between risk signals and inappropriate attenuated public response does generate useful insights into regulatory efficacy for examples of public risk management. Similar such conclusions about inappropriate public responses stemming from the amplification factors are less supported because, in this case, the risk is, and continues to be, large. Overall, we find that the SARF's particular focus on the signaling function of risk information performs best as an organizational aid to study historical information rather than as a predictive tool for determining inappropriate risk management responses.

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Public trust is being lamented as the central victim of our new, digital information environment, a notion that is depicted in labeling our society as "posttruth" or "posttrust." Within this article, we aim to call this deficit view of public trust into question and kindle a more positive outlook in future research. For this, we utilize the Social Amplification of Risk Framework to discuss trust as an inherent aspect of social interactions and to question the frameworks' normative approach to public trust and risk perception. Utilizing a literature review of prior studies that investigated trust within the structure of SARF and a case study on the impacts of Fukushima on public trust in nuclear energy, we would like to argue that the current normative "trust deficit model" should be overcome and future risk research should increasingly focus on the opportunities of the digital informational environment for risk communication.

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Epidemics of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika have been threatening the Caribbean. Since risk communication (RC) plays a fundamental role in preventing and controlling diseases understanding how RC works is essential for enabling risk-reducing behavior. This multimethod qualitative study compares news reports with local's and health professional's perspectives, currently lacking in RC research. It was found that RC strategies were obstructed by a lack of governmental structure, organization, and communication. The content analysis showed that the majority of newspaper articles contained negative reporting on the government. Furthermore, this study shows how trust and heuristics attenuate or amplify people's risk perceptions and possibly positively and negatively influence people's risk-reducing behavior. A transcending approach (e.g., structural, cooperative, and multidisciplinary) of the prevention and control of vector-borne diseases and the corresponding RC is recommended.

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Regulatory use of the precautionary principle (PP) tends to be broadly characterized either as a responsible approach for safeguarding against health and environmental risks in the face of scientific uncertainties, or as "state mismanagement" driven by undue political bias and public anxiety. However, the "anticipatory" basis upon which governments variably draw a political warrant for adopting precautionary measures often remains ambiguous. Particularly, questions arise concerning whether the PP is employed preemptively by political elites from the "top down," or follows from more conventional democratic pressures exerted by citizens and other stakeholders from the "bottom up." This article elucidates the role and impact of citizen involvement in the precautionary politics shaping policy discourse surrounding the U.K. government's "precautionary approach" to mobile telecommunications technology and health. A case study is presented that critically reexamines the basis upon which U.K. government action has been portrayed as an instance of anticipatory policy making. Findings demonstrate that the use of the PP should not be interpreted in the preemptive terms communicated by U.K. government officials alone, but also in relation to the wider social context of risk amplification and images of public concern formed adaptively in antagonistic precautionary discourse between citizens, politicians, industry, and the media, which surrounded cycles of government policy making. The article discusses the sociocultural conditions and political dynamics underpinning public influence on government anticipation and responsiveness exemplified in this case, and concludes with research and policy implications for how society subsequently comes to terms with the emergence and precautionary governance of new technologies under conflict.

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In the aftermath of the A/H1N1 pandemic, health authorities were criticized for failures in crisis communication efforts, and the media were accused of amplifying the pandemic. Considering these criticisms, A/H1N1 provides a suitable case for examining risk amplification processes that may occur in the transfer of information from press releases to print news media during a health crisis. We integrated the social amplification of risk framework with theories of news decisions (news values, framing) in an attempt to contribute to existing research both theoretically and empirically. We conducted a quantitative content analysis of press releases disseminated by health and governmental authorities, as well as the quality and tabloid press in 10 European countries between March 2009 and March 2011. Altogether 243 press releases, 1,243 quality press articles, and 834 tabloid press articles were coded. Consistent with research on news values and framing the results suggest that quality and tabloid papers alike amplified A/H1N1 risks by emphasizing conflict and damage, presenting information in a more dramatized way, and using risk-amplifying frames to a greater extent and risk-attenuating frames to a lesser extent than press releases. To some extent, the quality and tabloid press differed in how risk information was presented. While tabloid press articles seemed to follow the leading quality press with regards to content and framing of health crisis coverage, they exhibited a stronger emphasis on drama and emotion in the way they presented information.

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The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark 'real' risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how 'experts' - defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders - construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.

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This analysis featured a uniquely broad look at challenges and potentials for engaging agricultural and other industrial media more effectively in covering safety. It involved a content analysis of selected industry periodicals serving agriculture, mining, and transportation, which are three of the nation's most hazardous industries, in terms of human safety. Use of the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) provided insight on safety coverage. In particular, it tested previous research indicating that media coverage tends to amplify (increase) more than attenuate (decrease) a sense of risk. Analysis involved 18 periodicals (9 agriculture, 7 transportation, and 2 mining) spanning a five-year period from 2008 to 2012. Full-text digital analysis identified terms found in safety articles across all three industries. A manual review of articles revealed the quantity and nature of safety coverage within and among these industries. Results identified 528 safety-related articles published during the period. Transportation and mining periodicals averaged more than twice as many safety articles as the agricultural periodicals. The amount of coverage within the three industries also varied greatly. Findings on the nature of coverage supported previous media research within the SARF. Coverage across all three industries was clearly oriented more to amplifying than to attenuating risk. This study adds to the understanding of variations, commonalities, challenges, and potentials for enhancing safety coverage by media serving these three industries. It also provides direction for engaging industry media more effectively in the public safety mission. The authors recommend seven areas of opportunity for further research.

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Water reuse can serve as a sustainable alternative water source for urban areas. However, the successful implementation of large-scale water reuse projects depends on community acceptance. Because of the negative perceptions that are traditionally associated with reclaimed water, water reuse is often not considered in the development of urban water management plans. This study develops a simulation model for understanding community opinion dynamics surrounding the issue of water reuse, and how individual perceptions evolve within that context, which can help in the planning and decision-making process. Based on the social amplification of risk framework, our agent-based model simulates consumer perceptions, discussion patterns, and their adoption or rejection of water reuse. The model is based on the "risk publics" model, an empirical approach that uses the concept of belief clusters to explain the adoption of new technology. Each household is represented as an agent, and parameters that define their behavior and attributes are defined from survey data. Community-level parameters-including social groups, relationships, and communication variables, also from survey data-are encoded to simulate the social processes that influence community opinion. The model demonstrates its capabilities to simulate opinion dynamics and consumer adoption of water reuse. In addition, based on empirical data, the model is applied to investigate water reuse behavior in different regions of the United States. Importantly, our results reveal that public opinion dynamics emerge differently based on membership in opinion clusters, frequency of discussion, and the structure of social networks.

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This study investigated newspaper coverage of Florida red tide blooms in four metropolitan areas of Southwest Florida during a 25-year period, 1987-2012. We focused on how journalists framed red tide stories with respect to environmental risk, health risk, and economic risk. We determined risk to be a key factor in this news coverage, being an aspect of coverage of red tide itself in terms of environmental risk, tourism risk, and public health risk. The study found that red tide news coverage is most often framed as an environmental story.