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Research has consistently found risk for sexual recidivism drops as men convicted of a sexual offense age. One question that remains, however, is whether this age-related reduction in risk applies to men who commit their sexual offenses at an older age. The current study examined this question in a sample of 939 men who were screened for civil management and released to the community (mean follow-up = 6.33 years, SD = 3.98 years), by comparing the sexual recidivism rates of (a) 238 men convicted of sexual offenses committed over the age of 60 (Over-60 Index group), and (b) 701 men who committed sexual offenses under the age of 60 but who were released to the community over the age of 60 (Under-60 Index group). Even though the Under-60 Index group was significantly higher risk at release, the Over-60 Index group sexually recidivated at a significantly higher rate, a difference largely driven by the small group of men who had committed sexual offenses both under and over the age of 60. The Static-99R was a strong predictor of sexual recidivism regardless of age at sexual offending (i.e., just under 60, just over 60, or both under and over 60). The 2021 Routine Samples norms significantly overpredicted sexual recidivism for the Under-60 Index group and significantly underpredicted sexual recidivism for the Over-60 Index group, indicating that the use of the 2016 High Risk/High Needs norms could be more appropriate for the Over-60 Index group, particularly those men who sexually offended under the age of 60 before sexually offending over the age of 60.

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When someone is caught and punished for a sexual offense, recidivism prevention is of high priority. While a growing body of qualitative research has investigated the desistance process of those who have sexually offended, few studies have examined the narratives of individuals who have sexually recidivated in order to understand how they make sense of their reoffending. This study aims to fill this gap in the literature by exploring the recidivism process and broader life stories of 16 imprisoned men through semi-structured interviews. The results demonstrate how these men explain their recent "failures," the obstacles they face when doing so, and how they attempt to overcome these obstacles in their narratives. Thus, the analysis in this study is both thematic and narrative. Finally, the findings' practical implications are discussed to show how ambiguity in narratives can be a powerful tool in correctional and clinical interventions.

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Missing data are pervasive in risk assessment but their impact on predictive accuracy has largely been unexplored. Common techniques for handling missing risk data include summing available items or proration; however, multiple imputation is a more defensible approach that has not been methodically tested against these simpler techniques. We compared the validity of these three missing data techniques across six conditions using STABLE-2007 (N = 4,286) and SARA-V2 (N = 455) assessments from men on community supervision in Canada. Condition 1 was the observed data (low missingness), and Conditions 2 to 6 were generated missing data conditions, whereby 1% to 50% of items per case were randomly deleted in 10% increments. Relative predictive accuracy was unaffected by missing data, and simpler techniques performed just as well as multiple imputation, but summed totals underestimated absolute risk. The current study therefore provides empirical justification for using proration when data are missing within a sample.

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The predominant approach to understand dynamic risk factors of sexual reoffending has been referred to as the Propensities Model (Thornton, 2016). According to this model, dynamic risk factors can be conceptualized as latent constructs whose change alters the risk of sexual reoffending. Despite its strengths and contributions to research, this model does not offer answers to the question of how dynamic risk factors contribute to the risk of sexual reoffending, or of how sustained change in risk might take place. In this paper we introduce the Network-Based Model of Risk of Sexual Reoffending (NBM-RSR), which addresses several limitations and constraints of the Propensities Model and offers empirically testable propositions regarding the nature and development of the risk of sexual reoffending. The NBM-RSR considers risk of sexual reoffending to involve a self-sustaining network of causally connected dynamic risk factors. Consistent with this, an increased risk of sexual reoffending is characterized through a network that contains more and stronger interconnected dynamic risk factors with a higher strength. Sustained change in risk of sexual reoffending occurs when activity in the network exceeds a critical point resulting in a new self-sustaining network. Propositions based on the NBM-RSR are introduced and translated into testable hypotheses. These propositions revolve around (a) risk of sexual reoffending resulting from the construction of a network of causally connected dynamic risk factors, (b) network stability, sudden changes, and critical transitions, and (c) dynamic risk factors' relative influence on risk of sexual reoffending.

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Risk tools containing dynamic (potentially changeable) factors are routinely used to evaluate the recidivism risk of justice-involved individuals. Although frequent reassessments are recommended, there is little research on how the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments changes over time. This study examined the extent to which predictive accuracy decreases over time for the ACUTE-2007 and the STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools. We used two independent samples of men on community supervision (NStudy 1 = 795; NStudy 2 = 4,221). For all outcomes (sexual, violent, and any recidivism [including technical violations]), reassessments improved predictive accuracy, with the largest effects found for the most recent assessment (i.e., those closest in time prior to the recidivism event). Based on these results, we recommend that ACUTE-2007 assessments occur at least every 30 days and that the STABLE-2007 assessments occur every 6 months or after significant life changes (e.g., successful completion of treatment).

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Psychopathy has been empirically associated with various forms of antisocial behavior including sexual assault. In fact, the lack of empathy characterizing psychopathic offenders may facilitate the perpetration of more extreme violence. This systematic review aims to explore the relationship between psychopathy traits in male adult sex offenders and the increase in recidivism risk for any type of reoffence, with a special focus on sexual recidivism. From an initial sample of 757 articles related to the topic, only 14 were selected from the current literature at the end of the inclusion process. Each of these assessed the relation between psychopathy traits (measured by PCL-R) and recidivism risk in male sex offenders (age > 18), providing an effect size (quantitative findings). The results of their analysis agree with the currently available literature: the presence of psychopathic traits in sex offenders would seem to correlate with an increased risk of recidivism of general but non-sexual. Furthermore, almost half of the included works highlighted a positive relationship between psychopathy and violent reoffences. However, the limited availability of studies and the unevenness in their results indicate the need to expand future research in this direction.

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This study examined Static-99R normative data and cross-cultural validity in a sample of 811 Aboriginal and 3257 non-Aboriginal Australian men (N = 4068) serving custodial orders for sexual offences in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Aboriginal men scored significantly higher on the Static-99R than non-Aboriginal men (M = 4.39 vs. 2.61) and were more likely to be represented in higher categories of risk. The Static-99R showed good discrimination performance for the total sample (AUC = .76; 95% CI = [.73-.80]) and acceptable calibration to expected reoffending rates for routine samples, with slight tendencies towards overestimation. Discrimination accuracy was lower for Aboriginal men (AUC = .68; 95% CI = [.60-77]) than non-Aboriginal men (AUC = .78; 95% CI = [.74-83]) although was significantly better than chance for both groups. Additional analyses indicated that cross-cultural differences in discrimination were partly associated with variance in sample composition between groups. This is the first Australian study to find evidence for significant predictive validity of the Static-99R with Aboriginal men, and while further research is needed, the results provide initial support for cross-cultural applications of the measure in local criminal justice settings.

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There is limited research on female sex offenders and their offending characteristics. The sociocultural description of women as being nurturing, nonaggressive and, more significantly, nonsexual has diverted the attention from female sexual offending. Although reports have shown that female sex offenders make up two percent of the whole sex offender population, the true rate is remarkably higher because the caretaking behavior of women masks their sexual offenses. The purpose of our study is to explore the characteristics of female sex offenders. We analyzed the publicly available Missouri sex offender registry database and selected all female sex offenders (n = 532) of any age who committed their crimes in Missouri and were convicted in Missouri. We found that the 532 female offenders had a mean age of 29.8 years at the time of their first offense and were convicted for a total of 992 offenses. The calculated recidivism rate was close to 0.6 percent. Moreover, 89.5 percent of offenders had strictly contact offenses, whereas five percent had strictly pornography offenses. Implications for risk assessment are discussed.

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Emotional congruence with children (ECWC) is a psychologically meaningful risk factor for sexual offending against children (SOC). Based on previous research and theory, three models have been proposed to explain ECWC: Blockage, Sexual Domain, and Psychological Immaturity. Using structural equation modelling in a routine correctional sample of men adjudicated for sexual offences (n = 983), we found little support for all three of these models. Instead, we found that atypical sexual interests, alone, best explained ECWC, with a moderate relationship to ECWC. Using the predictors associated with each of the three models of ECWC, we identified three classes of men with a history of SOC who are high in ECWC using latent class analyses (n = 377). These three classes generally did not replicate the three models of ECWC. We instead propose three subgroups of men with histories of SOC who are high in ECWC, characterized respectively by: relationship deficits; youth and loneliness; and high sexual and general criminality. High levels of ECWC are predictive of a higher risk of sexual recidivism, regardless of class association; however, these subgroups are differentially at risk for some types of recidivism. Our findings suggest that ECWC is a multi-faceted construct, which is still not well understood.

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The Revised Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests (SSPI-2) is a five-item measure that assesses for pedohebephilia (sexual attraction to prepubescent and pubescent children) based on child victim characteristics. We aimed to replicate findings by Seto, Sandler et al. (2017) by examining the predictive validity of the SSPI-2 in an independent sample of 626 men referred for a sexological assessment because of sexual offending against children. SSPI-2 scores were associated with an increased likelihood of sexual recidivism but were not significantly associated with non-sexually violent or non-violent recidivism. When they were entered together, the SSPI-2 did not contribute additional variance to the Static-99R in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Results are consistent with the findings of Seto, Sandler et al. (2017) and suggest that higher scores on the SSPI-2 may be indicative of an increased risk for sexual recidivism in individuals who have sexually offended against children.

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Sexual recidivism risk assessment tools focus almost exclusively on risk factors associated with increased rates of recidivism and do not attend to protective factors that might mitigate reoffense risk. The present study investigated the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors - Sexual Offence version (SAPROF-SO), developed to assess hypothesised protective factors against sexual recidivism in adult males. The SAPROF-SO pilot version contains 24 items across two domains: Personal and Professionally Provided Support. SAPROF-SO scores were rated retrospectively from a review of archived case files of 210 men with convictions for child sexual offenses, using the SAPROF-SO pilot manual and a supplementary retrospective scoring guide developed for the current study. SAPROF-SO Total and Personal domain scores were significantly predictive of sexual recidivism after an average follow-up period of 12.24 years (AUC = .81), and to a lesser extent, violent and general recidivism. SAPROF-SO Total and Personal scores additionally provided significant incremental validity over Static-99R scores in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Results support the predictive validity of protective factors for reduced sexual recidivism and invite future research examining how to integrate the SAPROF-SO alongside contemporary sexual recidivism risk assessment tools.

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Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20 years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs (n = 190, average age of 38 years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5 years (Static-99R, E/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20 years: Static-99R, E/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20 years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%-70% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.

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Early or excessive sexualized behaviors and preoccupations with sexuality (SB) exhibited by juveniles who have sexually offended (JSO) are considered risk factors for sexual recidivism. However, research into SB among JSO is scarce. The present study retrospectively examined prevalence rates and patterns of SB among JSO prior to sexual offending and their relation to psychopathology and sexual recidivism. We systematically assessed information from psychiatric and psychological expert reports in case files of 230 JSO aged 12-18 years (M = 14.46, SD = 1.49) from a population sample of JSO with contact sexual offenses. A total of 93 (40.4%) JSO exhibited SB prior to the index sexual offense. Latent class analysis revealed three SB profiles: (1) "low/no SB" (n = 188), (2) "preoccupied SB" (preoccupation with sexuality, e.g., early pornography consumption, excessive masturbation; n = 29), and (3) "dysregulated SB" (exhibiting inappropriate sexualized behaviors toward others, e.g., sexualized speech, touching others inappropriately; n = 13). The preoccupied SB and the dysregulated SB groups showed higher prevalence of psychiatric disorders than the low/no SB. However, none of the JSO of the preoccupied SB or dysregulated SB groups reoffended sexually within 365 days after conviction for the sexual index offense (low/no SB: 12.8%). Overall, our findings do not support a general notion of the presence of SB as an indicator of high risk for persistent sexual offending among JSO. Instead, JSO with SB appear particularly burdened regarding a range of psychiatric disorders that should be treated accordingly.

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Although veterans have lower incarceration rates than civilians, large national surveys find higher rates of incarceration for sexual offenses among veterans compared to non-veterans. However, little is known about the factors associated with repeat sexual offending among veterans. This study examines characteristics of veterans who committed sexual offenses and how they differ from civilians with those offenses. It also examined if the factors that differ between veterans and civilians who have a history of repeat sexual offenses and those who do not. Based on previous research related to risk in veterans, we expected there may be veteran-specific risk factors. This study used the Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities. Predictors were identified through a review of the literature regarding sexual offense risk assessment and justice-involved veterans. Risk factors were examined using logistic regression analysis. In a multivariate logistic regression, there were significant interactions between veteran status and age, race, and education in the prediction of repeat offense status. Prior incarceration for a non-sexual offense was also associated with repeat offense status. Findings suggests that civilian risk factors are relevant to veteran risk assessment, an important finding that can help inform intervention and risk management with veterans.

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The present study is part of a larger project aiming to more closely integrate theory with empirical research into dynamic risk. It seeks to generate empirical findings with the dynamic risk factors contained in the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) that might constrain and guide the further development of Thornton's theoretical model of dynamic risk. Two key issues for theory development are (a) whether the structure of pretreatment dynamic risk factors is the same as the structure of the change in the dynamic risk factors that occurs during treatment, and (b) whether theoretical analysis should focus on individual dynamic items or on the broader factors that run through them. Factor analyses and item-level prediction analyses were conducted on VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and change ratings obtained from a large combined sample of men (Ns = 1,289-1,431) convicted and treated for sexual offenses. Results indicated that the latent structure of pretreatment dynamic risk was best described by a three-factor model while the latent structure of change items was two dimensional. Prediction analyses examined the degree to which items were predictive beyond prediction obtained from the broader factor that they loaded on. Results showed that for some items, their prediction appeared to be largely carried by the three broad factors. In contrast, other items seem to operate as funnels through which the broader factors' predictiveness flowed. Implications for theory development implied by these results are identified.

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PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We review the issues, controversies, and main findings from the sexual violence risk assessment literature with Indigenous men. An argument is presented for the incorporation of structured and validated risk assessment measures as part of a comprehensive assessment to inform risk management and the prevention of sexual violence. RECENT FINDINGS: Extant research demonstrates that Canadian Indigenous men convicted for sexual offenses tend to score higher on sexual violence risk measures and to have higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism. Established static and dynamic tools, however, have moderate predictive accuracy for sexual and violent recidivism and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents are associated with decreases in recidivism. Static-99R and the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version demonstrate acceptable properties of calibration for indigenous men with respect to sexual recidivism, although Indigenous men continue to show higher rates of violent recidivism associated with risk scores. The extant literature provides support for the discrimination and calibration properties of established static and dynamic sexual violence risk tools with Indigenous men; use of a dynamic tool is critical to inform risk management interventions and evaluate change. Risk measures are one component of a comprehensive and integrated assessment process that incorporates responsivity considerations, conducted in a culturally competent, ethical, and humane manner.

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PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We review and synthesize the literature on the effectiveness of offense-focused treatment for sexual offending. Specifically, we consider whether the extant literature suggests treatment is effective in reducing sexual reoffending and features of effective interventions. We also consider how the design of program evaluations may influence treatment outcomes. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent research suggests that offense-focused psychological treatment for sexual offending shows some level of effectiveness in reducing both sexual and general reoffending. Further, there appear to be key program, individual, and study design features associated with treatment effectiveness. Although recent findings paint an optimistic outlook for offense-focused psychological treatment for sexual offending, further high-quality differential studies are needed to fully understand the range of content, delivery, and individual factors associated with successful treatment outcomes so as to establish what works best for whom.

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The current study explored the association between psychopathic traits and release suitability decisions and examined the role of Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) and Static-99 in predicting general and sexual recidivism. The sample included 207 adult male sex offenders involved in the long-term follow-up at the Massachusetts Treatment Center for Sexually Dangerous Persons (MTC) in Bridgewater, Massachusetts. Contrary to our expectations, PCL-R Factor 2 (Lifestyle/Antisocial) scores were positively associated with being selected for gradual release, whereas PCL-R Factor 1 (Interpersonal/Affective) scores were not related to parole boards' decisions. Additionally, the interaction between the two factors was a significant predictor, suggesting that the individuals with more pronounced Factor 1 traits were less likely to be released when their Factor 2 scores were high as well. Although Static-99 scores predicted both contact and non-contact sexual recidivism, psychopathy was not related to reoffending, possibly because offenders with child victims were over-represented in the sample.

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The present study examined the discrimination and calibration properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores for sexual and violent recidivism as a function of age at release, on a combined sample of 1,287 men who had attended sexual offense-specific treatment services. The key aim was to examine to what extent VRS-SO scores can accurately discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among older cohorts, and if the existing age-related adjustments in the instrument adequately correct for increasing age. VRS-SO risk and change scores showed consistent properties of discrimination for sexual recidivism across the age cohorts, via area under the curve and Cox regression survival analysis, as demonstrated through fixed effects meta-analysis. Calibration analyses, employing logistic regression, demonstrated that age at release was consistently incrementally predictive of violent, but not sexual, recidivism after controlling for individual differences on static and dynamic risk factors. E/O index analyses demonstrated that predicted rates of sexual recidivism from VRS-SO scores, particularly when employed with Static-99R, were not significantly different from those observed among age cohorts; however, calibration was weaker for general violence. Implications for use of the VRS-SO in sexual recidivism risk assessment with older offenders are discussed.

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Although many instruments have been validated to assess risk of sexual recidivism among men, no similar tool exists for women who have sexually offended. As a result, some jurisdictions use male-based instruments to assess women despite the lack of validation research examining the predictive utility for this subgroup. This study examined the utility of the Static-99R in predicting sexual recidivism among women. Based on a sample of 739 women convicted of sexual offenses in Texas, findings show that the total score was not significantly associated with sexual recidivism. When looking at individual items, other than a history of prior sexual offenses and noncontact sexual offenses, no item of the Static-99R was significantly associated with sexual recidivism among women. Furthermore, only three items (female victims/solo offender, 4+ sentencing dates, and having not lived with a romantic other for 2+ years) were significantly associated with nonsexual recidivism. These findings indicate that the Static-99R is not suitable to assess risk of recidivism among women convicted of sexual offenses.

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