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BACKGROUND: Severe maternal morbidity (SMM) is increasing in the United States. Several tools and scores exist to stratify an individual's risk of SMM. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine and compare the validity of four scoring systems for predicting SMM. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study of all individuals in the Consortium on Safe Labor dataset, which was conducted from 2002 to 2008. Individuals were excluded if they had missing information on risk factors. SMM was defined based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention excluding blood transfusion. Blood transfusion was excluded due to concerns regarding the specificity of International Classification of Diseases codes for this indicator and its variable clinical significance. Risk scores were calculated for each participant using the Assessment of Perinatal Excellence (APEX), California Maternal Quality Care Collaborative (CMQCC), Obstetric Comorbidity Index (OB-CMI), and modified OB-CMI. We calculated the probability of SMM according to the risk scores. The discriminative performance of the prediction score was examined by the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The area under the curve for each score was compared using the bootstrap resampling. Calibration plots were developed for each score to examine the goodness-of-fit. The concordance probability method was used to define an optimal cutoff point for the best-performing score. RESULTS: Of 153, 463 individuals, 1115 (0.7%) had SMM. The CMQCC scoring system had a significantly higher area under the curve (95% CI) (0.78 [0.77-0.80]) compared to the APEX scoring system, OB-CMI, and modified OB-CMI scoring systems (0.75 [0.73-0.76], 0.67 [0.65-0.68], 0.66 [0.70-0.73]; P<.001). Calibration plots showed excellent concordance between the predicted and actual SMM for the APEX scoring system and OB-CMI (both Hosmer-Lemeshow test P values=1.00, suggesting goodness-of-fit). CONCLUSION: This study validated four risk-scoring systems to predict SMM. Both CMQCC and APEX scoring systems had good discrimination to predict SMM. The APEX score and the OB-CMI had goodness-of-fit. At ideal calculated cut-off points, the APEX score had the highest sensitivity of the four scores at 71%, indicating that better scoring systems are still needed for predicting SMM.

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Aims: To compare the predictive performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with and without cancer. Methods and results: Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England, we performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with new diagnoses of AF from 2009 to 2019. Cancer was defined as history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or haematological cancer. We calculated the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for the 1-year risk of stroke and major bleeding events. Scores performance was estimated by discrimination [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)] and calibration plots. Of 141 796 patients with AF, 10.3% had cancer. The CHA2DS2-VASc score had good to modest discrimination in prostate cancer AUC = 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.71, 0.77), haematological cancer AUC = 0.71 (0.66, 0.76), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.75), breast cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.74), and lung cancer AUC = 0.69 (0.60, 0.79), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.73 (0.72, 0.74). HAS-BLED discrimination was poor in prostate cancer AUC = 0.58 (0.55, 0.61), haematological cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.55, 0.64), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.57 (0.53, 0.61), breast cancer AUC = 0.56 (0.52, 0.61), and lung cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.51, 0.67), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.61 (0.60, 0.62). Both the CHA2DS2-VASc score and HAS-BLED score were well calibrated across all study cohorts. Conclusion: Amongst certain cancer cohorts in the AF population, CHA2DS2-VASc performs similarly in predicting stroke to AF patients without cancer. Our findings highlight the importance of cancer diagnosis during the development of risk scores and opportunities to optimize the HAS-BLED risk score to better serve cancer patients with AF.

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BACKGROUND: In the initial staging of patients with high-risk prostate cancer (PCa), prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET) has been established as a front-line imaging modality. The increasing number of PSMA-PET scans performed in the primary staging setting might be associated with decreases in biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival (BCR-FS). OBJECTIVE: To assess the added prognostic value of presurgical PSMA-PET for BCR-FS compared with the presurgical Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) and postsurgical CAPRA-Surgery (CAPRA-S) scores in patients with intermediate- to high-risk PCa treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) and pelvic lymph node dissection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a follow-up study of the surgical cohort evaluated in the multicenter prospective phase 3 imaging trial (n = 277; NCT03368547, NCT02611882, and NCT02919111). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Each 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET scan was read by three blinded independent readers. PSMA-PET prostate uptake (low vs high), PSMA-PET extraprostatic disease (N1/M1), and CAPRA and CAPRA-S scores were used to assess the risk of BCR. Patients were followed after RP by local investigators using electronic medical records. BCR was defined by a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level increasing to ≥0.2 ng/ml after RP or initiation of PCa-specific secondary treatment (>6 mo after surgery). Univariate and multivariable Cox models, and c-statistic index were performed to assess the prognostic value of PSMA-PET and for a comparison with the CAPRA and CAPRA-S scores. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: From December 2015 to December 2019, 277 patients underwent surgery after PSMA-PET. Clinical follow-up was obtained in 240/277 (87%) patients. The median follow-up after surgery was 32.4 (interquartile range 23.3-42.9) mo. Of 240 BCR events, 91 (38%) were observed. PSMA-PET N1/M1 was found in 41/240 (17%) patients. PSMA-PET prostate uptake, PSMA-PET N1/M1, and CAPRA and CAPRA-S scores were significant univariate predictors of BCR. The addition of PSMA-PET N1/M1 status to the presurgical CAPRA score improved the risk assessment for BCR significantly in comparison with the presurgical CAPRA score alone (c-statistic 0.70 [0.64-0.75] vs 0.63 [0.57-0.69]; p < 0.001). The C-index of the postsurgical model utilizing the postsurgical CAPRA-S score alone was not significantly different from the presurgical model combining the presurgical CAPRA score and PSMA-PET N1/M1 status (p = 0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Presurgical PSMA-PET was a strong prognostic biomarker improving BCR-FS risk assessment. Its implementation in the presurgical risk assessment with the CAPRA score improved the performance and reduced the difference with the reference standard (postsurgical CAPRA-S score). PATIENT SUMMARY: The use prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography improved the assessment of biochemical recurrence risk in patients with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer who were treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection.

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BACKGROUND: Many risk factors for the development of severe forms of Covid-19 have been identified, some applying to the general population and others specific to Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients. However, a score for quantifying the individual risk of severe Covid-19 in patients with MS is not available. The aim of this study was to construct such score and to evaluate its performance. METHODS: Data on patients with MS infected with Covid-19 in Italy, Turkey and South America were extracted from the Musc-19 platform. After imputation of missing values, data were separated into training data set (70%) and validation data set (30%). Univariable logistic regression models were performed in the training dataset to identify the main risk factors to be included in the multivariable logistic regression analyses. To select the most relevant variables we applied three different approaches: (1) multivariable stepwise, (2) Lasso regression, (3) Bayesian model averaging. Three scores were defined as the linear combination of the coefficients estimated in the models multiplied by the corresponding value of the variables and higher scores were associated to higher risk of severe Covid-19 course. The performances of the three scores were compared in the validation dataset based on the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and an optimal cut-off was calculated in the training dataset for the score with the best performance. The probability of showing a severe Covid-19 course was calculated based on the score with the best performance. RESULTS: 3852 patients were included in the study (2696 in the training dataset and 1156 in the validation data set). 17% of the patients required hospitalization and risk factors for severe Covid-19 course were older age, male sex, living in Turkey or South America instead of living in Italy, presence of comorbidities, progressive MS, longer disease duration, higher Expanded Disability Status Scale, Methylprednisolone use and anti-CD20 treatment. The score with the best performance was the one derived using the Lasso selection approach (AUC= 0.72) and it was built with the following variables: age, sex, country, BMI, presence of comorbidities, EDSS, methylprednisolone use, treatment. An excel spreadsheet to calculate the score and the probability of severe Covid-19 is available at the following link: https://osf.io/ac47u/?view_only=691814d57b564a34b3596e4fcdcf8580. CONCLUSIONS: The originality of this study consists in building a useful tool to quantify the individual risk for Covid-19 severity based on patient's characteristics. Due to the modest predictive ability and to the need of external validation, this tool is not ready for being fully used in clinical practice to make important decisions or interventions. However, it can be used as an additional instrument to identify high-risk patients and persuade them to take important measures to prevent Covid-19 infection (i.e. getting vaccinated against Covid-19, adhering to social distancing, and using of personal protection equipment).

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BACKGROUND: Selection of patients who can safely undergo outpatient total joint arthroplasty (TJA) is an increasing priority given the growth of ambulatory TJA. This study quantified the relative contribution and weight of 52 medical comorbidities comprising the Outpatient Arthroplasty Risk Assessment (OARA) score as predictors of safe same-day discharge (SDD). METHODS: The medical records of 2748 primary TJAs consecutively performed between 2014 and 2020 were reviewed to record the presence or absence of medical comorbidities in the OARA score. After controlling for patients not offered SDD due to OARA scores and patients who were offered but declined SDD, the final analysis sample consisted of 631 cases, 92.1% of whom achieved SDD and 7.9% of whom did not achieve SDD. Odds ratios were calculated to quantify the extent to which each comorbidity is associated with achieving SDD. RESULTS: Demographic characteristics of analysis cases were consistent with a high-volume TJA practice in a US metropolitan area. Among testable OARA comorbidities, 53% significantly decreased the likelihood of SDD by 2.3 (body mass index [BMI] ≥40 kg/m2) to 12 (history of post-operative confusion and pacemaker dependence) times. BMI between 30 and 39 kg/m2 did not affect the likelihood of SDD (P = .960), and BMI ≥40 kg/m2 had the smallest odds ratio in our study (2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.11-4.67, P = .025). CONCLUSION: Study findings contribute to the refinement of the OARA score as a successful predictor of safe SDD following primary TJA while maintaining low 90-day readmission rates.

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BACKGROUND: Cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common in patients with primary lung cancer. It has been understudied which authoritative risk assessment score of cancer-associated VTE is optimal for the assessment of VTE development in hospitalized medical patients with lung cancer. METHODS: Patients with lung cancer who had undergone computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA), compression ultrasonography (CUS) of lower and upper extremities, and/or planar ventilation/perfusion (V/Q) scan to confirm the presence or absence of VTE during a medical hospitalization were retrospectively reviewed. Based on the actual prevalence of VTE among all patients, the possibility of VTE were reassessed with the Khorana score, the PROTECHT score, the CONKO score, the ONKOTEV score, the COMPASS-CAT score, and the CATS/MICA score, to compare their assessment accuracy for VTE development. RESULTS: A total of 1263 patients with lung cancer were incorporated into the final analysis. With respect to assessment efficiency for VTE occurrence, the scores with adjusted agreement from highest to lowest were the ONKOTEV score (78.6%), the PROTECHT score (73.4%), the CONKO score (72.1%), the COMPASS-CAT score (71.7%), the Khorana score (70.9%), and the CATS/MICA score (60.3%). The ONKOTEV score had the highest Youden index which was 0.68, followed by the PROTECHT score (0.58), the COMPASS-CAT score (0.56), the CONKO score (0.55), the Khorana score (0.53), and the CATS/MICA score (0.23). CONCLUSIONS: Among the Khorana score, the PROTECHT score, the CONKO score, the ONKOTEV score, the COMPASS-CAT score, and the CATS/MICA score which are approved by authoritative guidelines, the ONKOTEV score is optimal for the assessment of VTE development in hospitalized medical patients with lung cancer.

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BACKGROUND: Stroke risk can be quantified using risk factors whose effect sizes vary by geography and race. No stroke risk assessment tool exists to estimate aggregate stroke risk for indigenous African. OBJECTIVES: To develop Afrocentric risk-scoring models for stroke occurrence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated 3533 radiologically confirmed West African stroke cases paired 1:1 with age-, and sex-matched stroke-free controls in the SIREN study. The 7,066 subjects were randomly split into a training and testing set at the ratio of 85:15. Conditional logistic regression models were constructed by including 17 putative factors linked to stroke occurrence using the training set. Significant risk factors were assigned constant and standardized statistical weights based on regression coefficients (ß) to develop an additive risk scoring system on a scale of 0-100%. Using the testing set, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed to obtain a total score to serve as cut-off to discriminate between cases and controls. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) at this cut-off. RESULTS: For stroke occurrence, we identified 15 traditional vascular factors. Cohen's kappa for validity was maximal at a total risk score of 56% using both statistical weighting approaches to risk quantification and in both datasets. The risk score had a predictive accuracy of 76% (95%CI: 74-79%), sensitivity of 80.3%, specificity of 63.0%, PPV of 68.5% and NPV of 76.2% in the test dataset. For ischemic strokes, 12 risk factors had predictive accuracy of 78% (95%CI: 74-81%). For hemorrhagic strokes, 7 factors had a predictive accuracy of 79% (95%CI: 73-84%). CONCLUSIONS: The SIREN models quantify aggregate stroke risk in indigenous West Africans with good accuracy. Prospective studies are needed to validate this instrument for stroke prevention.

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OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate management practices for glucocorticoid (GC)-induced osteoporosis (GIOP) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients using 2017 American College of Rheumatology guidelines as a gold standard. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a clinical database from the years 2011 to 2016. SLE cases with >90 days continuous prednisone use at doses of ≥7.51 mg daily were identified. Osteoporosis risk factors were assessed via chart review. The Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX) score was estimated for patients > 40 years of age. Vitamin D, bisphosphonate prescriptions, and osteoporotic (OP) fractures were ascertained through chart review. A classification tree was used to identify the key patient-related predictors of bisphosphonate prescription. RESULTS: A total of 203 SLE patients met the inclusion criteria. The recommended dose of vitamin D supplement was prescribed to 58.9% of patients < 40 years of age and 61.5% of patients ≥ 40 years of age. Among patients aged ≥ 40 years, 25% were prescribed bisphosphonates compared to 36% who met indications for bisphosphonates per the ACR guidelines. Another 10% were prescribed a bisphosphonate, despite not having indication per the ACR guidelines, which was considered as overtreatment. Among patients aged ≥ 40 years, older age and a higher FRAX score for major OP fracture and hip fracture predicted bisphosphonate prescription. In a classification tree analysis, patients with FRAX scores (for major OP fracture) of ≥ 23.5% predicted bisphosphonate prescription in this SLE population. Among patients who had OP fractures in the follow-up period, nine (6.50%) were inpatients receiving appropriate GIOP care versus 12 (13.6%) who were inpatients not receiving ACR-appropriate care (p = 0.098). CONCLUSIONS: In clinical practice, fewer SLE patients with or at risk for GIOP are prescribed vitamin D and bisphosphonates than recommended by the 2017 ACR guidelines. Also, in this study, another 10% were prescribed a bisphosphonate, despite not having an indication per the ACR guidelines. Patients were most likely to receive a bisphosphonate prescription if they had a major OP FRAX score of > 23.5%.

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BACKGROUND: Risk assessment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) contributes to its management. Unfortunately, the existing risk assessment approaches are defective for clinicians to practice in daily clinical settings to some extent. METHODS: We designed a modified Risk Assessment Score of PAH (mRASP) comprising four non-invasive variables which were World Health Organization functional class(WHO FC), 6-min walk distance (6MWD), N-terminal of the pro-hormone brain natriuretic peptide(NT-pro BNP), and right atrial area(RAA), then validated it in the prediction of one-year survival rate for patients with PAH by contrast with the REVEAL risk score. RESULTS: For the validation cohort(n = 216), the predicted one-year survival rate were 95-100%, 90-95%, and < 90% in the mRASP risk score strata of 0-2, 3-5, and 6-8, respectively; meanwhile, the observed one-year survival rates were 97.1, 92.6, and 52.2%, in each corresponding stratum, respectively. The mRASP (c-index = 0.727) demonstrated similar predictive power in contrast with the REVEAL risk assessment score (c-index = 0.715) in the prediction of one-year survival rate. CONCLUSION: The mRASP is an eligible risk assessment tool for the prognostic assessment of PAH. In contrast with the REVEAL score, it demonstrated similar predictive power and accuracy, with extra simplicity and convenience.

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BACKGROUND: With modernization, rapid urbanization and industrialization, the price that the society is paying is tremendous load of "Non-Communicable" diseases, referred to as "Lifestyle Diseases". Coronary artery disease (CAD), one of the lifestyle diseases that manifests at a younger age can have divesting consequences for an individual, the family and society. Prevention of these diseases can be done by studying the risk factors, analyzing and interpreting them using various statistical methods. OBJECTIVE: To determine, using logistic regression the relative contribution of independent variables according to the intensity of their influence (proven by statistical significance) upon the occurrence of values of the dependent cardio vascular risk scores. Additionally, we wanted to assess whether non parametric smoothing of the cardio vascular risk scores can be used as a better statistical method as compared to the existing methods. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study includes 498 students in the age group of 18-29 years. FINDINGS: Prevalence of over weight (BMI 23-25 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI > 25 Kg/m(2)) was found among individuals of 22 years and above. Non smokers had decreased odds (OR = 0.041, CI = 0.015-0.107) and also increase in LDL Cholesterol (OR = 1.05, CI = 1.021-1.055) and BMI (OR = 1.42, CI = 1.244-1.631) were significantly contributing towards the risk of CVD. Localite students had decreased odds of developing CVD in the next 10 years (OR = 0.27, CI = 0.092-0.799) as compared to students residing in hostel or paying guests.

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