RESUMEN
PIP: "The medium variant of the new Netherlands population forecasts for the period 1998-2050 projects that population size will increase to a maximum of 17.4 million around 2035.... In the new population forecasts population growth is higher due to higher numbers of births and lower numbers of deaths. Even though net migration will be lower than in the previous forecasts, this will only partly offset the higher natural growth. The main cause of the higher projection of population growth is that the new forecasts are based on assumptions about emigration rates, distinguished by age, sex and country of birth, rather than on absolute numbers of emigrants." (EXCERPT)^ieng
Asunto(s)
Tasa de Natalidad , Emigración e Inmigración , Predicción , Mortalidad , Dinámica Poblacional , Crecimiento Demográfico , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , Europa (Continente) , Fertilidad , Países Bajos , Población , Investigación , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
PIP: "This article shows how, working with a number of loose hypotheses, a classic measure of the reproduction rate...can be broken down into a series of multiplicative components, each of which reflects a specific dimension (intensity or frequency) of nuptiality, mortality, fertility and, if required, migration.... A number of simple algorithms are proposed for calculating the mean [maternal] age at birth and for estimating the proportion of women who are married at this age. An application to England, France and Germany establishes the existence and the characteristics of their respective demographic regimes in the [seventeenth] and [eighteenth] centuries." (EXCERPT)^ieng
Asunto(s)
Matrimonio , Edad Materna , Métodos , Dinámica Poblacional , Crecimiento Demográfico , Estadística como Asunto , Factores de Edad , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , Inglaterra , Europa (Continente) , Francia , Alemania , Padres , Población , Características de la Población , Investigación , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
PIP: The authors attempt to answer two main questions concerning the population of Nigeria. First, since independence came to Nigeria, why has it been so difficult to take a census whose results are accepted as reliable? And second, will it be possible to carry out an accurate and uncontested census in the future? Specifically, the authors attempt to identify the political and economic reasons that have sabotaged efforts to carry out an accurate census, and to suggest some short- and long-term measures that could help the country out of the current impasse.^ieng
Asunto(s)
Censos , Economía , Política , Crecimiento Demográfico , África , África del Sur del Sahara , África Occidental , Países en Desarrollo , Nigeria , Características de la Población , Investigación , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
"Traditionally, estimates of the number of people in small areas (the smallest geographical units for which data are available) have been disaggregated only by age and sex. More recently, much research effort has been directed towards developing some form of enhanced small-area population estimation, in which the population in a small area is disaggregated not only by age and sex, but also by a wide range of additional economic and social characteristics. Solutions to this problem currently include account-based demographic models, often used by local authorities."
Asunto(s)
Factores de Edad , Recolección de Datos , Demografía , Crecimiento Demográfico , Factores Sexuales , Factores Socioeconómicos , Estadística como Asunto , Economía , Población , Características de la Población , InvestigaciónRESUMEN
PIP: "This article assesses and corrects total population data by age and sex from the 1930-1990 [censuses], for nine regions in Mexico. The assessment is based on the Whipple, Myers and United Nations indexes, and the corrections were carried out with the United Nations 1/16 techniques." (EXCERPT)^ieng
Asunto(s)
Distribución por Edad , Recolección de Datos , Características de la Población , Crecimiento Demográfico , Proyectos de Investigación , Distribución por Sexo , Estadística como Asunto , Factores de Edad , Américas , Demografía , Países en Desarrollo , América Latina , México , América del Norte , Población , Investigación , Factores SexualesRESUMEN
"Prior research developed a cellular automaton model, that was calibrated by using historical digital maps of urban areas and can be used to predict the future extent of an urban area. The model has now been applied to two rapidly growing, but remarkably different urban areas: the San Francisco Bay region in California and the Washington/Baltimore corridor in the Eastern United States. This paper presents the calibration and prediction results for both regions, reviews their data requirements, compares the differences in the initial configurations and control parameters for the model in the two settings, and discuses the role of GIS in the applications."
Asunto(s)
Predicción , Geografía , Modelos Teóricos , Crecimiento Demográfico , Urbanización , Américas , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , América del Norte , Población , Investigación , Estadística como Asunto , Estados Unidos , Población UrbanaRESUMEN
PIP: The authors outline the demographic situation in the Netherlands in 1997. Aspects considered include population size and growth, native and nonnative population, place of birth, household size and composition, marriages and number of children, fertility, divorce, migration, and mortality. (ANNOTATION)^ieng
Asunto(s)
Divorcio , Emigración e Inmigración , Etnicidad , Composición Familiar , Fertilidad , Matrimonio , Mortalidad , Densidad de Población , Dinámica Poblacional , Crecimiento Demográfico , Características de la Residencia , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , Europa (Continente) , Países Bajos , Población , Características de la Población , Investigación , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
PIP: The government of Malaysia takes population issues seriously despite the country's relatively small population of 20.7 million in 1995. Malaysia has signaled its commitment to implementing the goals of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development by initiating changes in policies, programs, and institutional frameworks to reflect a concern for reproductive health, adolescent reproductive health, the family, and women. For 1995-2000, declines in overall fertility will reduce Malaysia's population growth to 2% per year from 2.6% during the 1980s. The population is expected to increase to 22.8 million by 2000, 27.8 million by 2010, and 33.4 million by 2020. During this period, the proportion will drop of those younger than 15 years old. Malaysia's commitment to women is reflected in its low maternal mortality rate (20/100,000 live births/year) and in the fact that life expectancy for women is 74 years compared to 70 years for men. Primary education is nearly universal, and the female literacy rate is 84.6%.^ieng
Asunto(s)
Distribución por Edad , Crecimiento Demográfico , Política Pública , Derechos de la Mujer , Factores de Edad , Asia , Asia Sudoriental , Demografía , Países en Desarrollo , Economía , Malasia , Población , Características de la Población , Investigación , Factores Socioeconómicos , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
"On the night of the 1996 Census, 5.4 per cent of the people counted in Australia were staying away from home (visitors), compared to 4.6 per cent in 1986. Queensland's share of the nation's visitors has risen since 1986, largely at the expense of Western Australia's. Queensland is now the most popular destination for interstate and overseas visitors, while New South Wales hosts a large proportion of intrastate visitors. But the overall picture is partly obscured because the Census missed around 100,000 overseas visitors."
Asunto(s)
Censos , Emigración e Inmigración , Geografía , Densidad de Población , Crecimiento Demográfico , Australia , Conducta , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , Islas del Pacífico , Población , Características de la Población , Dinámica Poblacional , Investigación , Proyectos de Investigación , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
PIP: "Estimates have been made of the number of family-reunifying and family-forming migrants of asylum migrants [in the Netherlands], using population stock data per 1 January 1997 obtained from the municipal population registers. The estimates are based on such demographic characteristics as country of birth, age, sex, marital status, year of marriage, family situation after the migration and year of most recent settlement in the Netherlands.... The calculations refer to the years 1990-1996 and are carried out for the following countries: Afghanistan, Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Iraq, Iran, (former) Yugoslavia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Zaire." (EXCERPT)^ieng
Asunto(s)
Emigración e Inmigración , Composición Familiar , Crecimiento Demográfico , Refugiados , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , Europa (Continente) , Países Bajos , Población , Dinámica Poblacional , Investigación , Estadística como Asunto , MigrantesRESUMEN
PIP: After summarizing Austrian population trends from 1961 to 1995, the authors describe three main scenarios for Austria's future population developments to the year 2021 based on various assumptions about internal and international migration, mortality, and fertility. Their results show that total population size will increase slightly, and that demographic aging will take place. Regional differences will be apparent, however, with the western areas showing demographic growth while the population of the southern regions decreases. Future demographic trends in the labor force are also summarized; unemployment is expected to remain relatively high. This article was based on a more detailed report produced for an Austrian conference on spatial management; projection results are available in machine-readable form from the Osterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz, Hohenstaufengasse 3, 1010 Vienna, Austria.^ieng
Asunto(s)
Demografía , Empleo , Predicción , Geografía , Dinámica Poblacional , Crecimiento Demográfico , Desempleo , Austria , Países Desarrollados , Economía , Europa (Continente) , Fuerza Laboral en Salud , Población , Investigación , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
I really was dismayed to see the basic cause of all our planet's problems buried in the September/October 96 issue: "...religious zealots might wreck the family planning needs of a billion people...." Let's face hard facts: all these problems would go away if the planet's population were small enough. What we really need to establish is what the population of the earth should be, and then set out to achieve that population as soon as possible. All of our efforts to reduce automobile pollution, the amount of reactor waste, the number of species being obliterated, etc., are just postponing the inevitable. What we need to look at, and keep track of, are those factors that encourage expanding population and discourage population control. For example, most businesses like to see the population expand so they can have a growing customer base. I truly appreciate your efforts. But if we are going to get anywhere we have to clearly identify the real problem. And then we have to break it down into manageable pieces and go to work on them. Otherwise we are going to keep looking at the graphs and wringing our hands as this accumulation of problems builds until it sweeps over us like a giant tsunami.
Asunto(s)
Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Estudios de Evaluación como Asunto , Regulación de la Población , Crecimiento Demográfico , Demografía , Ambiente , Población , Dinámica Poblacional , Política Pública , Investigación , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
"According to the new national population forecasts for the Netherlands for the period 1996-2050, the population size will continue to grow for another three decades. It will reach a maximum of 17.2 million, lower than the maximum according to the previous population forecasts.... The reason for this lower growth is that the assumption with respect to the future level of fertility is revised downwards.... Another adjustment of the forecasts is the assumption that life expectancy at birth will continue to increase until 2050, whereas in the previous forecasts life expectancy was held constant after 2010.... As a consequence of these revised assumptions the percentage of elderly people will increase more strongly." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Asunto(s)
Distribución por Edad , Predicción , Esperanza de Vida , Dinámica Poblacional , Crecimiento Demográfico , Factores de Edad , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , Europa (Continente) , Longevidad , Mortalidad , Países Bajos , Población , Características de la Población , Investigación , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
PIP: A mathematical model was developed for the estimation of global population growth, and the estimates were compared with those of the UN and covered the stretch of 4.4 million years B.C. to the years 2175 and 2500 A.D. The estimates were also broken down into human, geological, and technological historical periods. The model showed that human population would stabilize at the level of 14 billion around 2500 A.D. and 13 billion around 2200 A.D., in accordance with UN projections. It also revealed the history of human population growth through the following stages (UN figures are listed in parentheses): 100,000, about 1.6 million years ago; 5 (1-5) million, 35,000 B.C.; 21 (10-15) million, 7000 B.C.; 46 (47) million, 2000 B.C.; 93 (100-230) million, at the time of Christ; 185 (275-345) million, 1000 A.D.; 366 (450-540) million, 1500 A.D.; 887 (907) million, 1800 A.D.; 1158 (1170) million, 1850 A.D.; 1656 (1650-1710) million, 1900 A.D.; 2812 (2515) million, 1950 A.D.; 5253 (5328) million, 1990 A.D.; 6265 (6261) million, 2000 A.D.; 10,487 (10,019) million, 2050 A.D.; 12,034 (11,186) million, 2100 A.D.; 12,648 (11,543) million, 2150 A.D.; 12,946 (11,600) million, 2200 A.D.; and 13,536 million, 2500 A.D. The model advanced the investigation of phenomena by studying the interactions between economical, technological, social, cultural, and biological processes. The analysis showed that humanity has reached a critical phase in its growth and that development in each period depended on external, not internal, factors. This permits the formulation of the principle of demographic imperative (distinct from the Malthusian principle), which states that resources determine the speed and extent of the growth of population.^ieng
Asunto(s)
Demografía , Predicción , Modelos Teóricos , Crecimiento Demográfico , Naciones Unidas , Países Desarrollados , Europa (Continente) , Europa Oriental , Agencias Internacionales , Organizaciones , Investigación , Federación de Rusia , Ciencias Sociales , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
"Population estimates are usually produced by local government administrations in Britain, for each small area within their authority. Increasing interest has been shown by commerce and by central government. Five main methods are identified: apportionment, ratio change, additive change, cohort survival, and local censuses. Estimation strategies also vary according to available data, the detail in which a population is estimated, and the precise combination of elements chosen from one or more of the main methods. The use of methods at the beginning of the 1990s is surveyed in this paper, and examples given. The accuracy of each main method is quantified from empirical data collated by the Estimating with Confidence project. Likely developments towards the end of the 1990s are reviewed."
Asunto(s)
Crecimiento Demográfico , Estadística como Asunto , Países Desarrollados , Europa (Continente) , Investigación , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
"This paper...focuses on two related themes which together enable us to put the emergence of Bangkok as a primate city in the 19th century in clearer perspective. First, we review population estimates for Bangkok. Here, the major point is this: Bangkok's population was much smaller than often suggested in the 19th century.... As long as the area of Bangkok was confined, and the population small, city regulation could be maintained within the traditional Siamese social structures, with Bangkok being, in effect, a royal domain.... The second part of our paper looks at the creation and the role of the Ministry of the Capital, formed in 1892.... The linking [of] Bangkok administrative structure with royal interests produced both a physical and economic stamp on Bangkok which has had an enduring effect on Bangkok's development."
Asunto(s)
Economía , Gobierno , Densidad de Población , Crecimiento Demográfico , Urbanización , Asia , Asia Sudoriental , Demografía , Países en Desarrollo , Geografía , Política , Población , Dinámica Poblacional , Investigación , Estadística como Asunto , Tailandia , Población UrbanaRESUMEN
PIP: "This paper [translated from the original French] sets out the main information brought by the calculations of health expectancies at a global level: sex differences, national geographical comparisons, socio-economic differences; causes of disability and handicap; time trends; and nature of the years lived with disabilities. The study illustrates the policy relevance of health expectancies to (i) appraise the quality of the years lived, (ii) supervise health inequalities, (iii) allocate resources to different programmes, or (iv) assess health policies. It also illustrates the large diversity of potential indicators of the quality of years lived." (EXCERPT)^ieng
Asunto(s)
Personas con Discapacidad , Asignación de Recursos para la Atención de Salud , Salud , Esperanza de Vida , Crecimiento Demográfico , Política Pública , Calidad de Vida , Factores Socioeconómicos , Demografía , Economía , Administración Financiera , Longevidad , Mortalidad , Población , Características de la Población , Dinámica Poblacional , Investigación , Bienestar Social , Estadística como AsuntoRESUMEN
"This historical demography for Yucatan [Mexico] at the time of Spanish contact presents a number of problems. There were multiple Maya-Spaniard contacts before the Spaniards established a continuous presence after the protracted conquest of the Yucatan. The area of Yucatan that was controlled by the Spanish at any one time is not precisely known, and Yucatan offered ¿refuge' areas where the indigenous population could avoid Spanish control and counts. These issues are addressed here by considering different regions of the Yucatan and using a numerical computer simulation to generate new estimates of population that result from migration, warfare, agricultural calamity, and epidemics."
Asunto(s)
Demografía , Desastres , Brotes de Enfermedades , Emigración e Inmigración , Etnicidad , Geografía , Dinámica Poblacional , Crecimiento Demográfico , Estadística como Asunto , Guerra , Américas , Países en Desarrollo , Enfermedad , Ambiente , América Latina , México , América del Norte , Política , Población , Características de la Población , Investigación , Ciencias SocialesRESUMEN
"In this paper, we argue that the geometry of urban residential development is fractal. Both the degree to which space is filled and the rate at which it is filled follow scaling laws which imply invariance of function, and self-similarity of urban form across scale. These characteristics are captured in population density functions based on inverse power laws whose parameters are fractal dimensions. First we outline the relevant elements of the theory in terms of scaling relations and then we introduce two methods for estimating fractal dimension based on varying the size of cities and the scale at which their form is detected. Exact and statistical estimation techniques are applied to each method respectively generating dimensions which measure the extent and the rate of space filling. These methods are then applied to residential development patterns in six industrial cities in the northeastern United States...."
Asunto(s)
Modelos Teóricos , Densidad de Población , Crecimiento Demográfico , Estadística como Asunto , Urbanización , Américas , Demografía , Países Desarrollados , Geografía , América del Norte , Población , Investigación , Estados Unidos , Población UrbanaRESUMEN
PIP: The authors discuss the use of inverse projection to examine population growth in four regions of Italy between 1750 and 1911. Information is included on population and growth rates; life expectancy at birth; crude birth rate; and nuptiality, fertility, and mortality.^ieng