RESUMEN
Governments across the globe have implemented different strategies to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. A national mandatory quarantine was the most applied policy tool. While there are studies that tested the effectiveness of a national mandatory quarantine, the question about the effectiveness of additional quarantine policies is not yet answered. In this study we focus on three large cities in Colombia (Bogota, Medellin and Cali) with similar socio-economic conditions but made use of different COVID-19 prevention measures. We examine whether different non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs) conducted in these three cities are effective against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We inspect the effect of the quarantine policies restricting exit from home by sex, ID number, whereby only Bogota implemented the restriction to leave the home according to sex followed by a restriction according to ID number, and Medellin and Cali implemented a restriction by ID number only. Data for the analysis are obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics of Colombia [Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE)]. The data on pandemic severity is measured by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per city. We conduct single-group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine differences in the extent of the pandemic severity in Bogota, Medellin and Cali. We found that NPIs in all three Colombian cities had a positive effect on slowing the spread of the pandemic.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Ciudades , Colombia/epidemiología , Humanos , Pandemias/prevención & control , PolíticasRESUMEN
Abstract During the covid-19 pandemic, physical distancing is being promoted to reduce the disease transmission and pressure on health systems. Yet, what determines physical distancing? Through a panel data analysis, this article identifies some of its determinants. Using a specifically built index that measures the strictness of physical distancing rules in the 27 Brazilian states, this paper isolates the effect of mandatory physical distancing rules from other potential determinants of physical distancing. The article concludes that physical distancing is influenced by at least three variables: the strictness of mandatory physical distancing rules, the number of confirmed cases of covid-19, and the duration of rules. Evidence also indicates that the effect of physical distancing measures is relatively stronger than that of the number of cases -physical distancing is determined proportionally more by mandatory policies than people's awareness about the severity of the epidemic. These results have at least two policy implications. First, governments should adopt mandatory measures in order to increase physical distancing - rather than expect people to adopt them on their own. Second, the timing of adopting them is important, since people are unlikely to comply with them for long periods of time.
Resumo Durante a pandemia de covid-19, o distanciamento físico está sendo promovido para reduzir a transmissão da doença e a pressão sobre os sistemas de saúde. No entanto, o que determina o distanciamento físico? Através de uma análise de dados em painel, este artigo identifica alguns de seus determinantes. Usando um índice que mede o rigor das regras de distanciamento nas 27 unidades da federação brasileiras, isolou-se o efeito de regras obrigatórias de distanciamento de outros potenciais determinantes. O artigo conclui que o distanciamento é influenciado por ao menos três variáveis: rigor das regras obrigatórias, número de casos confirmados e duração das regras. Os resultados também indicam que o efeito das medidas de distanciamento é relativamente mais forte do que o do número de casos - o distanciamento físico é determinado proporcionalmente mais por políticas obrigatórias do que pelo grau de conscientização acerca da gravidade da epidemia. Os resultados têm ao menos duas implicações em termos de políticas. Primeiro, governos devem adotar medidas obrigatórias para aumentar o distanciamento físico - ao invés de esperar que as pessoas as adotem por conta própria. Segundo, o momento de adotá-las é importante, pois é improvável que se mantenham níveis altos de distanciamento físico por longos períodos de tempo.