RESUMEN
Accurate electricity demand forecasting can provide a timely and effective reference for economic control and facilitate the secure production and operation of power systems. However, electricity data are well known for their nonlinearity and multi-seasonal features, making it challenging to construct forecasting models. This study investigates the combination of singular spectrum analysis to facilitate the construction of decomposition-based forecasting approaches for electricity load. First, we demonstrate and emphasize the importance of separability for specifically extracting different features hidden in the original data; moreover, only by using the separable feature subseries, the constructed individual model can capture the inner and distinct characteristics of original series more effectively. Second, this study decomposes the electricity load into several significant features using singular spectrum analysis. Each feature series is predicted separately to construct aggregate results. In particular, we propose SSA-based period decomposition to not only perform separable decomposition but also overcome the border effect, which has received little attention in previous work. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we conduct an empirical study and compare the performance of the discussed models. The empirical results show that the proposed approach can obtain the expected forecasting performance and is a reliable and promising tool for extracting different features.
RESUMEN
The local climate zone (LCZ) scheme was originally proposed to provide an interdisciplinary taxonomy for urban heat island (UHI) studies. In recent years, the scheme has also become a starting point for the development of higher-level products, as the LCZ classes can help provide a generalized understanding of urban structures and land uses. LCZ mapping can therefore theoretically aid in fostering a better understanding of spatio-temporal dynamics of cities on a global scale. However, reliable LCZ maps are not yet available globally. As a first step toward automatic LCZ mapping, this work focuses on LCZ-derived land cover classification, using multi-seasonal Sentinel-2 images. We propose a recurrent residual network (Re-ResNet) architecture that is capable of learning a joint spectral-spatial-temporal feature representation within a unitized framework. To this end, a residual convolutional neural network (ResNet) and a recurrent neural network (RNN) are combined into one end-to-end architecture. The ResNet is able to learn rich spectral-spatial feature representations from single-seasonal imagery, while the RNN can effectively analyze temporal dependencies of multi-seasonal imagery. Cross validations were carried out on a diverse dataset covering seven distinct European cities, and a quantitative analysis of the experimental results revealed that the combined use of the multi-temporal information and Re-ResNet results in an improvement of approximately 7 percent points in overall accuracy. The proposed framework has the potential to produce consistent-quality urban land cover and LCZ maps on a large scale, to support scientific progress in fields such as urban geography and urban climatology.