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Stochastic simulations of virtual oil spills from ships were performed for the Adriatic Sea over 2017-2020, applying the European Marine Observation and Data Network vessel densities as a proxy for starting locations of operational spillage. The MEDSLIK-II oil spill model was run using high-resolution currents provided by the Copernicus Marine Service and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts winds. Chronic exposure to operational oil spills was reported in terms of hazard indices for five vessel groups: pleasure and passenger ships, cargo and service vessels, the fishing fleet, tankers, and other ships. The northernmost Adriatic expectedly showed the highest hazard values, including the areas of Trieste and Venice, where cargo and service ships were the dominant polluters. The Croatian coastal waters were more chronically polluted than the Italian coastal waters; the predominant contribution was from coastwise pleasure and passenger ships.

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We performed stochastic simulations of hypothetical oil spills from a single-point buoy mooring and subsea pipeline for the Port of Taranto given that this port is an essential strategic hub in the European logistic chain. Our methodology integrates (1) the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model coupled to a high-resolution hydrodynamic model run on an unstructured grid in operational forecasting mode; (2) a hypothetical oil spill scenario based on a historical pipeline rupture at the Port of Genoa, 2016; and (3) randomly sampling the environmental conditions over 2018-2020. The main oil drift was found to be directed southwesterly towards the outlet to the open sea. When oil is transported by highly variable currents, waves and turbulent mixing, it is exposed to multiple strandings and washing-offs from concrete constructions in the port. Consequently, oil tends to be dispersed almost isotropically over the Mar Grande, indicating low to moderate pollution indices.

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In response to the oil spill caused by the collision between the Ro-Ro ship Ulysse and CSL Virginia on 7th October 2018, the Lagrangian oil spill model MEDSLIK-II was utilized to predict spill transport and fate. Oil drift was forced by the high-resolution sea circulation provided by CMEMS and the ECMWF wind. Successive model runs were restarted 5 times with the distinct overflight- and satellite-derived observations provided by REMPEC and the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission. The results were verified based on the ability to predict the first oil-beaching event that happened near Saint-Tropez (France) in the early afternoon of 16th October. Despite the general consistency among the runs, only the last initialization was able to forecast the oil beaching. Stochastic MEDSLIK-II simulations forced by the historical meteo-oceanographic datasets 2014-2018 revealed that the coastlines between Cap Lardier and the Gulf of Saint-Tropez were among the most impacted areas.

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Oil spills are a transnational problem, and establishing a common standard methodology for Oil Spill Risk Assessments (OSRAs) is thus paramount in order to protect marine environments and coastal communities. In this study we firstly identified the strengths and weaknesses of the OSRAs carried out in various parts of the globe. We then searched for a generic and recognized standard, i.e. ISO 31000, in order to design a method to perform OSRAs in a scientific and standard way. The new framework was tested for the Lebanon oil spill that occurred in 2006 employing ensemble oil spill modeling to quantify the risks and uncertainties due to unknown spill characteristics. The application of the framework generated valuable visual instruments for the transparent communication of the risks, replacing the use of risk tolerance levels, and thus highlighting the priority areas to protect in case of an oil spill.

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Oil-shoreline interaction (or "beaching" as commonly referred to in literature) is an issue of major concern in oil spill modeling, due to the significant environmental, social and economic importance of coastal areas. The present work studies the improvement of the representation of beaching brought by the introduction of the Oil Holding Capacity approach to estimate oil concentration on coast, along with new approaches for coast type assignment to shoreline segments and the calculation of permanent oil attachment to the coast. The above were tested for the Lebanon oil spill of 2006, using a modified version of the open-source oil spill model MEDSLIK-II. The modified model results were found to be in good agreement with field observations for the specific case study, and their comparison with the original model results denote the significant improvement in the fate of beached oil brought by the proposed changes.

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