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RATIONALE: Accelerated decline in lung function is associated with incident COPD, hospitalizations and death. However, identifying this trajectory with longitudinal spirometry measurements is challenging in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a proteomic risk score trained on accelerated decline in lung function can assess risk of future respiratory disease and mortality. METHODS: In CARDIA, a population-based cohort starting in young adulthood, longitudinal measurements of FEV1 percent predicted (up to six timepoints over 30 years) were used to identify accelerated and normal decline trajectories. Protein aptamers associated with an accelerated decline trajectory were identified with multivariable logistic regression followed by LASSO regression. The proteomic respiratory susceptibility score was derived based on these circulating proteins and applied to the UK Biobank and COPDGene studies to examine associations with future respiratory morbidity and mortality. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Higher susceptibility score was independently associated with all-cause mortality (UKBB: HR 1.56, 95%CI 1.50-1.61; COPDGene: HR 1.75, 95%CI 1.63-1.88), respiratory mortality (UKBB: HR 2.39, 95% CI 2.16-2.64; COPDGene: HR 1.83, 95%CI 1.33-2.51), incident COPD (UKBB: HR 1.84, 95%CI 1.71-1.98), incident respiratory exacerbation (COPDGene: OR 1.11, 95%CI 1.03-1.20), and incident exacerbation requiring hospitalization (COPDGene: OR 1.18, 95%CI 1.08-1.28). CONCLUSIONS: A proteomic signature of increased respiratory susceptibility identifies people at risk of respiratory death, incident COPD, and respiratory exacerbations. This susceptibility score is comprised of proteins with well-known and novel associations with lung health and holds promise for the early detection of lung disease without requiring years of spirometry measurements.

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BACKGROUND: Lung function trajectories (LFTs) have been shown to be an important measure of long-term health in asthma. While there is a growing body of metabolomic studies on asthma status and other phenotypes, there are no prospective studies of the relationship between metabolomics and LFTs or their genomic determinants. METHODS: We utilized ordinal logistic regression to identify plasma metabolite principal components associated with four previously-published LFTs in children from the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP) (n = 660). The top significant metabolite principal component (PCLF) was evaluated in an independent cross-sectional child cohort, the Genetic Epidemiology of Asthma in Costa Rica Study (GACRS) (n = 1151) and evaluated for association with spirometric measures. Using meta-analysis of CAMP and GACRS, we identified associations between PCLF and microRNA, and SNPs in their target genes. Statistical significance was determined using an false discovery rate-adjusted Q-value. FINDINGS: The top metabolite principal component, PCLF, was significantly associated with better LFTs after multiple-testing correction (Q-value = 0.03). PCLF is composed of the urea cycle, caffeine, corticosteroid, carnitine, and potential microbial (secondary bile acid, tryptophan, linoleate, histidine metabolism) metabolites. Higher levels of PCLF were also associated with increases in lung function measures and decreased circulating neutrophil percentage in both CAMP and GACRS. PCLF was also significantly associated with microRNA miR-143-3p, and SNPs in three miR-143-3p target genes; CCZ1 (P-value = 2.6 × 10-5), SLC8A1 (P-value = 3.9 × 10-5); and TENM4 (P-value = 4.9 × 10-5). INTERPRETATION: This study reveals associations between metabolites, miR-143-3p and LFTs in children with asthma, offering insights into asthma physiology and possible interventions to enhance lung function and long-term health. FUNDING: Molecular data for CAMP and GACRS via the Trans-Omics in Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program was supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI).

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Background: Abnormal lung function trajectories are associated with increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and premature mortality; several risk factors for following these trajectories have been identified. Airway under-sizing dysanapsis (small airway lumens relative to lung size), is associated with an increased risk for COPD. The relationship between dysanapsis and lung function trajectories at risk for adverse outcomes of COPD is largely unexplored. We test the hypothesis that dysanapsis differentially affects distinct lung function trajectories associated with adverse outcomes of COPD. Methods: To identify lung function trajectories, we applied Bayesian trajectory analysis to longitudinal FEV1 and FVC Z-scores in the COPDGene Study, an ongoing longitudinal study that collected baseline data from 2007 to 2012. To ensure clinical relevance, we selected trajectories based on risk stratification for all-cause mortality and prospective exacerbations of COPD (ECOPD). Dysanapsis was measured in baseline COPDGene CT scans as the airway lumen-to-lung volume (a/l) ratio. We compared a/l ratios between trajectories and evaluated their association with trajectory assignment, controlling for previously identified risk factors. We also assigned COPDGene participants for whom only baseline data is available to their most likely trajectory and repeated our analysis to further evaluate the relationship between trajectory assignment and a/l ratio measures. Findings: We identified seven trajectories: supranormal, reference, and five trajectories at increased risk for mortality and exacerbations. Three at-risk trajectories are characterized by varying degrees of concomitant FEV1 and FVC impairments and exhibit airway predominant COPD patterns as assessed by quantitative CT imaging. These trajectories have lower a/l ratio values and increased risk for mortality and ECOPD compared to the reference trajectory. Two at-risk trajectories are characterized by disparate levels of FEV1 and FVC impairment and exhibit mixed airway and emphysema COPD patterns on quantitative CT imaging. These trajectories have markedly lower a/l ratio values compared to both the reference trajectory and airway-predominant trajectories and are at greater risk for mortality and ECOPD compared to the airway-predominant trajectories. These findings were observed among the participants with baseline-only data as well. Interpretation: The degree of dysanapsis appears to portend patterns of progression leading to COPD. Assignment of individuals-including those without spirometric obstruction-to distinct trajectories is possible in a clinical setting and may influence management strategies. Strategies that combine CT-assessed dysanapsis together with spirometric measures of lung function and smoke exposure assessment are likely to further improve trajectory assignment accuracy, thereby improving early detection of those most at risk for adverse outcomes. Funding: United States National Institute of Health, COPD Foundation, and Brigham and Women's Hospital.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: It is now well established that there are different life-long lung function trajectories in the general population, and that some are associated with better or worse health outcomes. Yet, the prevalence, clinical characteristics and risk factors of individuals with supranormal FEV1 or FVC values (above the upper-limit of normal [ULN]) in different age-bins through the lifetime in the general population are poorly understood. METHOD: To address these questions, we investigated the prevalence of supranormal FEV1 and FVC values in the LEAD (Lung, hEart, sociAl and boDy) study, a general population cohort in Austria that includes participants from 6 to 82 years of age. RESULTS: We found that: (1) the prevalence of supranormal pre-bronchodilator FEV1 and FVC values was 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively, and that these figures remained relatively stable through different age-bins except for participants >60 years., in whom they increased (5.0% and 4.2%, respectively). Approximately 50% of supranormal individuals had both increased FEV1 and FVC values; (2) supranormal spirometric values were consistently accompanied by higher static lung volumes and lower specific airway resistance through the lifespan, indicating better overall lung function; and (3) multivariate regression analysis identified that female sex, higher muscle mass (FFMI), less diabetes and fewer respiratory symptoms were consistently associated with supranormal FEV1 and FVC values. CONCLUSION: Supranormal FEV1 and/or FVC values occur in about 3% of the general population in different age bins and are associated with better health markers.

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Objective:To establish the long-term trajectories of lung function in children with bronchial asthma (asthma) and explore the risk factors of persistent pulmonary dysfunction.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted.Children with asthma aged above 14 years who had been followed up regularly and completed pulmonary function testing in Children′s Hospital of Capital Institute of Pediatrics were enrolled in the study from January to December 2019.Their lung function data and clinical information were collected.The latent class growth model (LCGM) was used to fit the change of lung function in children with asthma, and different trajectory groups were established.Comparison between groups was performed by t-test, ANOVA or Chi- square test.The risk factors for the lung function trajectory were analyzed by the multivariate Logistic regression method. Results:A total of 173 children with asthma, aged from 6 to 17, were enrolled, and 1 160 lung function tests were completed.Four forced expiratory volume in the first second/forced vital capacity (FEV 1/FVC) latent class trajectory groups were established, including persistent high level [27 cases (15.6%)], above average level [66 cases (38.1%)], below average level [66 cases (38.1%)], and persistent low level [14 cases (8.1%)]. In all the 4 different trajectory groups, the FEV 1/FVC values were significantly different among patients of different ages (all P<0.05). The FEV 1/FVC values of patients at all ages in the persistent high level group were above 90%.The FEV 1/FVC values of patients in other 3 level groups decreased as a whole as the age increased.FEV 1/FVC of patients in the persistent low level group decreased to below 80% when they entered the school age period and approached 70% in adolescence.The trajectory and fluctuation of maximal midexpiratory flow (MMEF), which represents the small airway function, were similar to those of FEV 1/FVC.Risk factor analysis showed that the risk of lung function decreasing below the average level in children with typical asthma was 11.940 times higher than that in children with cough variant asthma ( P=0.008). The risk of lung function deteriorating to below the average level in children with multiple allergen sensitivities was 7.462 times higher than that in children with single allergen sensitivity ( P=0.015). Children taking drugs irregularly were 6.337 times more likely to suffer persistent low lung function than children taking drugs regularly ( P=0.035). Boys were 6.186 times more likely to suffer a lung function reduction to below the average level than girls ( P=0.002). Conclusions:Four long-term trajectories of lung function in asthmatic children aged 6 to 17 years can be established: persistent high level, above average level, below average level and persistent low level.The long-term lung function of nearly a half of the asthmatic children is below the average level.Many children develop persistent airflow limitation in adolescence, and few at school age.Typical asthma, multiple allergen sensitivities, irregular medication and boy were the risk factors of long-term lung function reduction.

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Despite the growing body of evidence on lung function trajectories over the life course and their risk factors, the literature has not been systematically synthesized. Publications related to lung function trajectories were identified from PubMed, EMBASE and CINAHL databases. Two authors independently identified publications for inclusion according to predefined selection criteria. Studies that modelled lung function trajectories and reported associated exposures were included. Meta-analyses could not be conducted due to heterogeneity in the exposures and methods used to model lung function trajectories. Nine publications were eligible for inclusion of which four used group-based trajectory modelling to model lung function trajectories, while five used latent profile analysis. Studies with repeated lung function measurements over the life course identified more trajectories than others. Only one study spanning from childhood to middle age reported catch-up trajectory. The following childhood risk factors for subnormal lung function trajectories were observed in at least across two studies: low birth weight, early wheezing, asthma, allergic sensitization, eczema, allergic rhinitis, lower respiratory tract infections, family history of asthma and second-hand smoke exposure. Adult active asthma and personal cigarette smoking were observed to be associated with accelerated decline lung trajectories. Our review identified 10 risk factors associated with the growth, catch-up, reduced plateau and decline trajectories of lung function. Intervention directed at childhood asthma and infections, and tobacco smoke exposure at all ages would help promote lung health and prevent subnormal lung function trajectories.

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BACKGROUND: Occupational exposures at the WTC site after 11 September 2001 have been associated with presumably inflammatory chronic lower airway diseases. AIMS: In this study, we describe the trajectories of expiratory air flow decline, identify subgroups with adverse progression, and investigate the association of those trajectories with quantitative computed tomography (QCT) imaging measurement of increased and decreased lung density. METHODS: We examined the trajectories of expiratory air flow decline in a group of 1,321 former WTC workers and volunteers with at least three periodic spirometries, and using QCT-measured low (LAV%, -950 HU) and high (HAV%, from -600 to -250 HU) attenuation volume percent. We calculated the individual regression line slopes for first-second forced expiratory volume (FEV1 slope), identified subjects with rapidly declining ("accelerated decliners") and increasing ("improved"), and compared them to subjects with "intermediate" (0 to -66.5 mL/year) FEV1 slope. We then used multinomial logistic regression to model those three trajectories, and the two lung attenuation metrics. RESULTS: The mean longitudinal FEV1 slopes for the entire study population, and its intermediate, decliner, and improved subgroups were, respectively, -40.4, -34.3, -106.5, and 37.6 mL/year. In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, LAV% and HAV% were both associated with "accelerated decliner" status (ORadj , 95% CI 2.37, 1.41-3.97, and 1.77, 1.08-2.89, respectively), compared to the intermediate decline. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal FEV1 decline in this cohort, known to be associated with QCT proximal airway inflammation metric, is also associated with QCT indicators of increased and decreased lung density. The improved FEV1 trajectory did not seem to be associated with lung density metrics.

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RATIONALE: The relationship between longitudinal lung function trajectories, chest computed tomography (CT) imaging, and genetic predisposition to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been explored. OBJECTIVES: 1) To model trajectories using a data-driven approach applied to longitudinal data spanning adulthood in the Normative Aging Study (NAS), and 2) to apply these models to demographically similar subjects in the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) Study with detailed phenotypic characterization including chest CT. METHODS: We modeled lung function trajectories in 1,060 subjects in NAS with a median follow-up time of 29 years. We assigned 3,546 non-Hispanic white males in COPDGene to these trajectories for further analysis. We assessed phenotypic and genetic differences between trajectories and across age strata. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified four trajectories in NAS with differing levels of maximum lung function and rate of decline. In COPDGene, 617 subjects (17%) were assigned to the lowest trajectory and had the greatest radiologic burden of disease (P < 0.01); 1,283 subjects (36%) were assigned to a low trajectory with evidence of airway disease preceding emphysema on CT; 1,411 subjects (40%) and 237 subjects (7%) were assigned to the remaining two trajectories and tended to have preserved lung function and negligible emphysema. The genetic contribution to these trajectories was as high as 83% (P = 0.02), and membership in lower lung function trajectories was associated with greater parental histories of COPD, decreased exercise capacity, greater dyspnea, and more frequent COPD exacerbations. CONCLUSIONS: Data-driven analysis identifies four lung function trajectories. Trajectory membership has a genetic basis and is associated with distinct lung structural abnormalities.

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