RESUMEN
Landscape ecological risk (LER) is an effective index to identify regional ecological risk and measure regional ecological security. The localized shared socioeconomic pathways (LSSPs) can provide multi-scenario parameters of social and economic development for LER research. The research of LER under LSSPs is of scientific significance and practical value in curbing the breeding and spread of LER risk areas. In this study, land-cover raster files from 2010 to 2020 were used as the foundational data. Future land use simulation (FLUS), regression, and Markov chain models were used to predict the land cover patterns under the five LSSP scenarios in the Xiangjiang River Basin (XJRB) in 2030. Thus, an evaluation model was established, and the LER of the watershed was evaluated. We found that the rate of land cover change (LCC) in the XJRB between 2010 and 2020 had a higher intensity (increasing at an average of 18.89% per decade) than that projected under the LSSPs for 2020-2030 (averaging an increase of 8.58% per decade). Among the growth rates of all land use types in the XJRB, that of urban land was the highest (33.3%). From 2010 to 2030, the LER in the XJRB was classified as lower risk (33.73%), lowest risk (33.11%), and moderate risk (24.13%) for each decade. Finally, the LER exhibited significant heterogeneity among different scenarios. Specifically, the percentages of regions characterized by the highest (9.77%) and higher LER (9.75%) were notably higher than those in the remaining scenarios. The higher-level risk area under the localized SSP1 demonstrated a clear spatial reduction compared to those of the other four scenarios. In addition, in order to facilitate the differential management and control of LER by relevant departments, risk zoning was carried out at the county level according to the prediction results of LER. And we got three types of risk management regions for the XJRB under the LSSPs.
Asunto(s)
Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Ríos , Simulación por Computador , China , Riesgo , Factores Socioeconómicos , EcosistemaRESUMEN
Urbanization causes enormous land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which have become significant drivers of land surface temperature (LST) change in rapidly urbanizing city, and the changes in LULC subsequently increase the LST to form urban heat island (UHI). This paper first identified the spatial distribution pattern of the LULC changes and surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) in the study area in recent 20 years based on Landsat TM/OLI data. And later, the relationship between the distribution of impervious surface (IS) and vegetable coverage (VC) and SUHII was analyzed quantitatively. Then, the land cover and land surface temperature (LST) in Shanghai in 2027 under three development modes were simulated and predicted based on FLUS model and geospatial analysis. The results showed that (1) Regional land cover and LST had obvious differences in gradient distribution from urban to rural areas, and the outer ring road (Ring3) was an obvious dividing line; (2) the proportion of IS and VC were significantly positively (|R| > 0.695) and negatively (|R| > 0.328) correlated with LST; (3) under the three different scenario development models, the ecological space protection model effectively regulated the SUHII, which was 15.91% less than the SUHII in 2017 (34% inside Ring3 and 14% outside Ring3). The results could provide a reference for the rational allocation of urban land and landscape optimization in reducing SUHII` in typical urbanized areas.