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Background: Low levels of testosterone cause male hypogonadism, which is associated with sexual dysfunction, tiredness and reduced muscle strength and quality of life. Testosterone replacement therapy is commonly used for ameliorating symptoms of male hypogonadism, but there is uncertainty about the magnitude of its effects and its cardiovascular and cerebrovascular safety. Aims of the research: The primary aim was to evaluate the safety of testosterone replacement therapy. We also assessed the clinical and cost-effectiveness of testosterone replacement therapy for men with male hypogonadism, and the existing qualitative evidence on men's experience and acceptability of testosterone replacement therapy. Design: Evidence synthesis and individual participant data meta-analysis of effectiveness and safety, qualitative evidence synthesis and model-based cost-utility analysis. Data sources: Major electronic databases were searched from 1992 to February 2021 and were restricted to English-language publications. Methods: We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis of individual participant data according to current methodological standards. Evidence was considered from placebo-controlled randomised controlled trials assessing the effects of any formulation of testosterone replacement therapy in men with male hypogonadism. Primary outcomes were mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. Data were extracted by one reviewer and cross-checked by a second reviewer. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. We performed one-stage meta-analyses using the acquired individual participant data and two-stage meta-analyses to integrate the individual participant data with data extracted from eligible studies that did not provide individual participant data. A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to evaluate the cost per quality-adjusted life-years of the use of testosterone replacement therapy in cohorts of patients of different starting ages. Results: We identified 35 trials (5601 randomised participants). Of these, 17 trials (3431 participants) provided individual participant data. There were too few deaths to assess mortality. There was no difference between the testosterone replacement therapy group (120/1601, 7.5%) and placebo group (110/1519, 7.2%) in the incidence of cardiovascular and/or cerebrovascular events (13 studies, odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.42; p = 0.62). Testosterone replacement therapy improved quality of life and sexual function in almost all patient subgroups. In the testosterone replacement therapy group, serum testosterone was higher while serum cholesterol, triglycerides, haemoglobin and haematocrit were all lower. We identified several themes from five qualitative studies showing how symptoms of low testosterone affect men's lives and their experience of treatment. The cost-effectiveness of testosterone replacement therapy was dependent on whether uncertain effects on all-cause mortality were included in the model, and on the approach used to estimate the health state utility increment associated with testosterone replacement therapy, which might have been driven by improvements in symptoms such as sexual dysfunction and low mood. Limitations: A meaningful evaluation of mortality was hampered by the limited number of defined events. Definition and reporting of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events and methods for testosterone measurement varied across trials. Conclusions: Our findings do not support a relationship between testosterone replacement therapy and cardiovascular/cerebrovascular events in the short-to-medium term. Testosterone replacement therapy improves sexual function and quality of life without adverse effects on blood pressure, serum lipids or glycaemic markers. Future work: Rigorous long-term evidence assessing the safety of testosterone replacement therapy and subgroups most benefiting from treatment is needed. Study registration: The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018111005. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/68/01) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 43. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Testosterone is a hormone which is vital for sexual activity, bone growth and muscle development in men. Men with low testosterone levels may experience problems with erections and may suffer from brittle bones (osteoporosis), weakness, feeling down (low mood) and tiredness. The manifestations of low testosterone can be treated with testosterone replacement therapy. However, there is current uncertainty about the positive effects of testosterone replacement therapy and its safety. We brought together results from all available medical studies that looked at the use of testosterone replacement therapy in men with low testosterone and contacted the doctors who led these studies to gather further information on their participants. We found 35 studies (5601 participants) conducted in different countries, 17 of which provided additional information on their participants. We did not find any evidence to show that testosterone replacement therapy increases the risk of heart problems, or any evidence to show that some men who take testosterone replacement therapy benefit more than others. Men with low testosterone reported having low mood, poor concentration and lack of energy; however, medical studies often failed to prove that these manifestations improved with testosterone replacement therapy. Most medical studies were conducted among white men in North America using questionnaires designed specifically for them; therefore, the results may not reflect the experiences of men in other countries and from more diverse ethnic backgrounds. There is too much uncertainty about the benefits of testosterone replacement therapy to accurately estimate its value for money for the NHS. We think our findings offer some reassurance to doctors and patients that testosterone replacement therapy does not increase the risk of heart problems. New studies are needed to find out whether some groups of men (such as older or younger men) are more likely to benefit from testosterone replacement therapy more than others. It is also important to develop tools which better reflect the experience of men from a diverse range of social and ethnic backgrounds. To inform men with low testosterone about our findings, we are creating a website with dedicated YouTube video clips.

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Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis provides important opportunities to study interaction and effect modification for which individual studies often lack power. While previous meta-analyses have commonly focused on multiplicative interaction, additive interaction holds greater relevance for public health and may in certain contexts better reflect biological interaction. Methodological literature on interaction in IPD meta-analysis does not cover additive interaction for models including binary or time-to-event outcomes. We aimed to describe how the Relative Excess Risk due to Interaction (RERI) and other measures of additive interaction or effect modification can be validly estimated within two-stage IPD meta-analysis. First, we explain why direct pooling of study-level RERI estimates may lead to invalid results. Next, we propose a three-step procedure to estimate additive interaction: 1) estimate effects of both exposures and their product term on the outcome within each individual study; 2) pool study-specific estimates using multivariate meta-analysis; 3) estimate an overall RERI and 95% confidence interval based on the pooled effect estimates. We illustrate this procedure by investigating interaction between depression and smoking and risk of smoking-related cancers using data from the PSYchosocial factors and Cancer (PSY-CA) consortium. We discuss implications of this procedure, including the application in meta-analysis based on published data.

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BACKGROUND: Involving the public in evidence synthesis research is challenging due to the highly analytic nature of the projects, so it is important that involvement processes are documented, reflected upon, and shared to devise best practices. There is a literature gap on the involvement of the public in individual participant data meta-analyses, particularly in public health projects. We aimed to document and reflect on our collective experiences of involving and being involved as public stakeholders at all stages of a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis project. METHODS: We formed a stakeholder group made of four members of the public at the beginning of our evidence synthesis project comprising a systematic review, an aggregate data meta-analysis, and an individual participant data meta-analysis of mindfulness-based programmes for mental health promotion in non-clinical adults. Following each group meeting, members and participating researchers completed written reflections; one group member collected and collated these. At the end of the project, a reflective writing workshop was held before all members completed their final reflections. Everyone completed an adapted, open-ended questionnaire which asked about what did and did not work well, the overall experience, what could be improved, and the felt impact the stakeholder group had on the research. RESULTS: Overall, the stakeholders and researchers reported a positive experience of working together. Positives from the stakeholders' point of view included learning new skills, experiencing research, and making new friends. For the researchers, stakeholders helped them focus on what matters to the public and were reinvigorating research partners. The challenges stakeholders experienced included having long gaps between meetings and feeling overwhelmed. The researchers found it challenging to strike the balance between asking stakeholders to be involved and for them to learn research-related skills without overburdening them and making sure that the learning was engaging. When looking back at their experience, stakeholders described seeing their impact on the project in hindsight but that this was not felt while the project was being carried out. CONCLUSION: Successfully involving the public in complex evidence synthesis projects is possible and valuable from the points of view of the researchers and the stakeholders. However, it requires a significant time, skill, and resource investment that needs to be factored in from project inception. Further guidance and stakeholder training materials would be helpful. Specific suggestions are provided.

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OBJECTIVES: To use individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) to estimate the minimal detectable change (MDC) of the Geriatric Depression Scale-15 (GDS-15) and to examine whether MDC may differ based on participant characteristics and study-level variables. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a secondary analysis of data from an IPDMA on the depression screening accuracy of the GDS. Datasets from studies published in any language were eligible for the present study if they included GDS-15 scores for participants aged 60 or older. MDC of the GDS-15 was estimated via random-effects meta-analysis using 2.77 (MDC95) and 1.41 (MDC67) standard errors of measurement. Subgroup analyses were used to evaluate differences in MDC by participant age and sex. Meta-regression was conducted to assess for differences based on study-level variables, including mean age, proportion male, proportion with major depression, and recruitment setting. RESULTS: 5876 participants (mean age 76 years, 40% male, 11% with major depression) from 21 studies were included. The MDC95 was 3.81 points (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.59, 4.04), and MDC67 was 1.95 (95% CI 1.83, 2.03). The difference in MDC95 was 0.26 points (95% CI 0.04, 0.48) between ≥80-year-olds and <80-year-olds; MDC95 was similar for females and males (0.05, 95% CI -0.12, 0.22). The MDC95 increased by 0.29 points (95% CI 0.17, 0.41) per 10% increase in proportion of participants with major depression; mean age had a small association (0.04 points, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.09) with MDC95, but sex and recruitment setting were not significantly associated. CONCLUSION: The MDC95 was 3.81 points and MDC67 was 1.95 points. MDC95 increased with the proportion of participants with major depression. Results can be used to evaluate individual changes in depression symptoms and as a threshold for assessing minimal clinical important difference estimates.

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INTRODUCTION: The LIfestyle for BRAin Health (LIBRA) index yields a dementia risk score based on modifiable lifestyle factors and is validated in Western samples. We investigated whether the association between LIBRA scores and incident dementia is moderated by geographical location or sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: We combined data from 21 prospective cohorts across six continents (N = 31,680) and conducted cohort-specific Cox proportional hazard regression analyses in a two-step individual participant data meta-analysis. RESULTS: A one-standard-deviation increase in LIBRA score was associated with a 21% higher risk for dementia. The association was stronger for Asian cohorts compared to European cohorts, and for individuals aged ≤75 years (vs older), though only within the first 5 years of follow-up. No interactions with sex, education, or socioeconomic position were observed. DISCUSSION: Modifiable risk and protective factors appear relevant for dementia risk reduction across diverse geographical and sociodemographic groups. HIGHLIGHTS: A two-step individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted. This was done at a global scale using data from 21 ethno-regionally diverse cohorts. The association between a modifiable dementia risk score and dementia was examined. The association was modified by geographical region and age at baseline. Yet, modifiable dementia risk and protective factors appear relevant in all investigated groups and regions.

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Depression, anxiety and other psychosocial factors are hypothesized to be involved in cancer development. We examined whether psychosocial factors interact with or modify the effects of health behaviors, such as smoking and alcohol use, in relation to cancer incidence. Two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses were performed based on 22 cohorts of the PSYchosocial factors and CAncer (PSY-CA) study. We examined nine psychosocial factors (depression diagnosis, depression symptoms, anxiety diagnosis, anxiety symptoms, perceived social support, loss events, general distress, neuroticism, relationship status), seven health behaviors/behavior-related factors (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, body mass index, sedentary behavior, sleep quality, sleep duration) and seven cancer outcomes (overall cancer, smoking-related, alcohol-related, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal). Effects of the psychosocial factor, health behavior and their product term on cancer incidence were estimated using Cox regression. We pooled cohort-specific estimates using multivariate random-effects meta-analyses. Additive and multiplicative interaction/effect modification was examined. This study involved 437,827 participants, 36,961 incident cancer diagnoses, and 4,749,481 person years of follow-up. Out of 744 combinations of psychosocial factors, health behaviors, and cancer outcomes, we found no evidence of interaction. Effect modification was found for some combinations, but there were no clear patterns for any particular factors or outcomes involved. In this first large study to systematically examine potential interaction and effect modification, we found no evidence for psychosocial factors to interact with or modify health behaviors in relation to cancer incidence. The behavioral risk profile for cancer incidence is similar in people with and without psychosocial stress.

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BACKGROUND: This systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) examined the overall effectiveness of eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR) in reducing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, achieving response and remission, and reducing treatment dropout among adults with PTSD compared to other psychological treatments. Additionally, we examined available participant-level moderators of the efficacy of EMDR. METHODS: This study included randomized controlled trials. Eligible studies were identified by a systematic search in PubMed, Embase, PsyclNFO, PTSDpubs, and CENTRAL. The target population was adults with above-threshold baseline PTSD symptoms. Trials were eligible if at least 70% of study participants had been diagnosed with PTSD using a structured clinical interview. Primary outcomes included PTSD symptom severity, treatment response, and PTSD remission. Treatment dropout was a secondary outcome. The systematic search retrieved 15 eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs); 8 of these 15 were able to be included in this IPDMA (346 patients). Comparator treatments included relaxation therapy, emotional freedom technique, trauma-focused cognitive behavioral psychotherapies, and REM-desensitization. RESULTS: One-stage IPDMA found no significant difference between EMDR and other psychological treatments in reducing PTSD symptom severity (ß = -0.24), achieving response (ß = 0.86), attaining remission (ß = 1.05), or reducing treatment dropout rates (ß = -0.25). Moderator analyses found unemployed participants receiving EMDR had higher PTSD symptom severity at the post-test, and males were more likely to drop out of EMDR treatment than females. CONCLUSION: The current study found no significant difference between EMDR and other psychological treatments. We found some indication of the moderating effects of gender and employment status.

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Individual participant data meta-analyses (IPD-MAs) have several benefits over standard aggregate data meta-analyses, including the consideration of additional participants, follow-up time, and the joint consideration of study- and participant-level heterogeneity for improved diagnostic and prognostic model development and evaluation. However, IPD-MAs are resource-intensive and require careful budgeting of time from data contributing groups, a dedicated management team, diversity of expertise, clearly documented data sharing and authorship agreements, and consistent and clear communication. We present a toolkit to facilitate the implementation and management of IPD-MAs, from study recruitment to retrospective harmonization. The toolkit was developed and refined over our work on multiple multinational IPD-MA projects over the last 13 years. The toolkit's budget and email templates, agreements, project management spreadsheets, and standard operating procedures are meant to facilitate routine IPD-MA tasks to expedite implementing and managing future IPD-MA projects.

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BACKGROUND: Online treatments are increasing in number and are currently available for a wide range of clinical problems. To date little is known about the role of treatment expectations and other placebo-like mechanisms in online settings compared to traditional face-to-face treatment. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed individual participant data from randomized clinical trials that compared online and face-to-face psychological interventions. METHODS: MEDLINE (Ovid) and PsycINFO (Ovid) were last searched on 2 February 2021. Randomized clinical trials of therapist guided online v. face-to-face psychological interventions for psychiatric or somatic conditions using a randomized controlled design were included. Titles, abstracts, and full texts of studies were independently screened by multiple observers. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guideline was followed. Authors of the matching trials were contacted for individual participant data. Ratings from the Credibility and Expectancy Questionnaire and the primary outcome measure from each trial were used to estimate the association between expectation ratings and treatment outcomes in online v. face-to-face interventions, using a mixed-effects model. RESULTS: Of 7045 screened studies, 62 full-text articles were retrieved whereof six studies fulfilled the criteria and provided individual participant data (n = 491). Overall, CEQ ratings predicted clinical outcomes (ß = 0.27) at end of treatment with no moderating effect of treatment modality (online v. face-to-face). CONCLUSIONS: Online treatment appears to be equally susceptible to expectancy effects as face-to-face therapy. This furthers our understanding of the importance of placebo-like factors in online treatment and may aid the improvement of healthcare in online settings.

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INTRODUCTION: The extent to which the Big Five personality traits and subjective well-being (SWB) are discriminatory predictors of clinical manifestation of dementia versus dementia-related neuropathology is unclear. METHODS: Using data from eight independent studies (Ntotal = 44,531; Ndementia = 1703; baseline Mage = 49 to 81 years, 26 to 61% female; Mfollow-up range = 3.53 to 21.00 years), Bayesian multilevel models tested whether personality traits and SWB differentially predicted neuropsychological and neuropathological characteristics of dementia. RESULTS: Synthesized and individual study results indicate that high neuroticism and negative affect and low conscientiousness, extraversion, and positive affect were associated with increased risk of long-term dementia diagnosis. There were no consistent associations with neuropathology. DISCUSSION: This multistudy project provides robust, conceptually replicated and extended evidence that psychosocial factors are strong predictors of dementia diagnosis but not consistently associated with neuropathology at autopsy. HIGHLIGHTS: N(+), C(-), E(-), PA(-), and NA(+) were associated with incident diagnosis. Results were consistent despite self-report versus clinical diagnosis of dementia. Psychological factors were not associated with neuropathology at autopsy. Individuals with higher conscientiousness and no diagnosis had less neuropathology. High C individuals may withstand neuropathology for longer before death.

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OBJECTIVES: Risk of bias assessments are important in meta-analyses of both aggregate and individual participant data (IPD). There is limited evidence on whether and how risk of bias of included studies or datasets in IPD meta-analyses (IPDMAs) is assessed. We review how risk of bias is currently assessed, reported, and incorporated in IPDMAs of test accuracy and clinical prediction model studies and provide recommendations for improvement. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We searched PubMed (January 2018-May 2020) to identify IPDMAs of test accuracy and prediction models, then elicited whether each IPDMA assessed risk of bias of included studies and, if so, how assessments were reported and subsequently incorporated into the IPDMAs. RESULTS: Forty-nine IPDMAs were included. Nineteen of 27 (70%) test accuracy IPDMAs assessed risk of bias, compared to 5 of 22 (23%) prediction model IPDMAs. Seventeen of 19 (89%) test accuracy IPDMAs used Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2), but no tool was used consistently among prediction model IPDMAs. Of IPDMAs assessing risk of bias, 7 (37%) test accuracy IPDMAs and 1 (20%) prediction model IPDMA provided details on the information sources (e.g., the original manuscript, IPD, primary investigators) used to inform judgments, and 4 (21%) test accuracy IPDMAs and 1 (20%) prediction model IPDMA provided information or whether assessments were done before or after obtaining the IPD of the included studies or datasets. Of all included IPDMAs, only seven test accuracy IPDMAs (26%) and one prediction model IPDMA (5%) incorporated risk of bias assessments into their meta-analyses. For future IPDMA projects, we provide guidance on how to adapt tools such as Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (for prediction models) and QUADAS-2 (for test accuracy) to assess risk of bias of included primary studies and their IPD. CONCLUSION: Risk of bias assessments and their reporting need to be improved in IPDMAs of test accuracy and, especially, prediction model studies. Using recommended tools, both before and after IPD are obtained, will address this.

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BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses have found anti-TNF drugs to be the best treatment, on average, for Crohn's disease. We performed a subgroup analysis to determine if it is possible to achieve more efficacious outcomes by individualizing treatment selection. METHODS: We obtained participant-level data from 15 trials of FDA-approved treatments (N=5703). We used sequential regression and simulation to model week six disease activity as a function of drug class, demographics, and disease-related features. We performed hypothesis testing to define subgroups based on rank-ordered preferences for treatments. We queried health records from University of California Health (UCH) to estimate the impacts these models could have on practice. We computed the sample size needed to prospectively test a prediction of our models. RESULTS: 45% of the participants (N=2561) showed greater efficacy with at least one drug class (anti-TNF, anti-IL-12/23, anti-integrin) over another. They were classifiable into 6 subgroups, two showing greatest efficacy with anti-TNFs (36%, N=2064). Women over 50 showed superior responses with anti-IL-12/23s. Although they represented only 2% of the trial-based cohort, 25% of Crohn's patients at UCH are women over 50 (N=5,647), consistent with potential selection bias in trials. Moreover, 75% of biologic-exposed women over 50 did not receive an anti-IL12/23 first-line, supporting the potential value of these models. A future trial with 250 patients per arm will have 97% power to confirm the superiority of anti-IL-12/23s over anti-TNFs in these patients. A treatment recommendation tool is available at https://crohnsrx.org. CONCLUSIONS: Personalizing treatment can improve outcomes in Crohn's disease. Future work is needed to confirm these findings, and improve representativeness in Crohn's trials.

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BACKGROUND: The advent of clinical trial data sharing platforms has created opportunities for making new discoveries and answering important questions using already collected data. However, existing methods for meta-analyzing these data require the presence of shared control groups across studies, significantly limiting the number of questions that can be confidently addressed. We sought to develop a method for meta-analyzing potentially heterogeneous clinical trials even in the absence of a common control group. METHODS: This work was conducted within the context of a broader effort to study comparative efficacy in Crohn's disease. Following a search of clnicaltrials.gov we obtained access to the individual participant data from nine trials of FDA-approved treatments in Crohn's Disease (N = 3392). We developed a method involving sequences of regression and simulation to separately model the placebo- and drug-attributable effects, and to simulate head-to-head trials against an appropriately normalized background. We validated this method by comparing the outcome of a simulated trial comparing the efficacies of adalimumab and ustekinumab against the recently published results of SEAVUE, an actual head-to-head trial of these drugs. This study was pre-registered on PROSPERO (#157,827) prior to the completion of SEAVUE. RESULTS: Using our method of sequential regression and simulation, we compared the week eight outcomes of two virtual cohorts subject to the same patient selection criteria as SEAVUE and treated with adalimumab or ustekinumab. Our primary analysis replicated the corresponding published results from SEAVUE (p = 0.9). This finding proved stable under multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This new method may help reduce the bias of individual participant data meta-analyses, expand the scope of what can be learned from these already-collected data, and reduce the costs of obtaining high-quality evidence to guide patient care.

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Aims: Current guidelines recommend measuring carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) at the far wall of the common carotid artery (CCA). We aimed to precisely quantify associations of near vs. far wall CCA-IMT with the risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD, defined as coronary heart disease or stroke) and their added predictive values. Methods and results: We analysed individual records of 41 941 participants from 16 prospective studies in the Proof-ATHERO consortium {mean age 61 years [standard deviation (SD) = 11]; 53% female; 16% prior CVD}. Mean baseline values of near and far wall CCA-IMT were 0.83 (SD = 0.28) and 0.82 (SD = 0.27) mm, differed by a mean of 0.02 mm (95% limits of agreement: -0.40 to 0.43), and were moderately correlated [r = 0.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39-0.49). Over a median follow-up of 9.3 years, we recorded 10 423 CVD events. We pooled study-specific hazard ratios for CVD using random-effects meta-analysis. Near and far wall CCA-IMT values were approximately linearly associated with CVD risk. The respective hazard ratios per SD higher value were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.14-1.22; I² = 30.7%) and 1.20 (1.18-1.23; I² = 5.3%) when adjusted for age, sex, and prior CVD and 1.09 (1.07-1.12; I² = 8.4%) and 1.14 (1.12-1.16; I²=1.3%) upon multivariable adjustment (all P < 0.001). Assessing CCA-IMT at both walls provided a greater C-index improvement than assessing CCA-IMT at one wall only [+0.0046 vs. +0.0023 for near (P < 0.001), +0.0037 for far wall (P = 0.006)]. Conclusions: The associations of near and far wall CCA-IMT with incident CVD were positive, approximately linear, and similarly strong. Improvement in risk discrimination was highest when CCA-IMT was measured at both walls.

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BACKGROUND: A previous individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) of antibiotics for adults with clinically diagnosed acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) showed a marginal overall effect of antibiotics, but was unable to identify patients that are most likely to benefit from antibiotics when applying conventional (i.e. univariable or one-variable-at-a-time) subgroup analysis. We updated the systematic review and investigated whether multivariable prediction of patient-level prognosis and antibiotic treatment effect may lead to more tailored treatment assignment in adults presenting to primary care with ARS. METHODS: An IPD-MA of nine double-blind placebo-controlled trials of antibiotic treatment (n=2539) was conducted, with the probability of being cured at 8-15 days as the primary outcome. A logistic mixed effects model was developed to predict the probability of being cured based on demographic characteristics, signs and symptoms, and antibiotic treatment assignment. Predictive performance was quantified based on internal-external cross-validation in terms of calibration and discrimination performance, overall model fit, and the accuracy of individual predictions. RESULTS: Results indicate that the prognosis with respect to risk of cure could not be reliably predicted (c-statistic 0.58 and Brier score 0.24). Similarly, patient-level treatment effect predictions did not reliably distinguish between those that did and did not benefit from antibiotics (c-for-benefit 0.50). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, multivariable prediction based on patient demographics and common signs and symptoms did not reliably predict the patient-level probability of cure and antibiotic effect in this IPD-MA. Therefore, these characteristics cannot be expected to reliably distinguish those that do and do not benefit from antibiotics in adults presenting to primary care with ARS.

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OBJECTIVES: To examine the proportion of eligible primary studies that contributed data, study characteristics associated with data contribution, and reasons for noncontribution using diagnostic test accuracy Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis (IPDMA) data sets from the DEPRESsion Screening Data project. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We reviewed data set contributions from four IPDMAs. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to evaluate study factors associated with data contribution. RESULTS: Of 456 eligible studies from four included IPDMAs, 295 (65%) contributed data. More recent year of publication and higher journal impact factor were associated with greater odds of data contribution. Studies conducted in Europe (excluding the United Kingdom), Oceania, Canada, the Middle East, Africa, and Central or South America (reference = the United States), that have recruitment from inpatient care or nonmedical settings (reference = outpatient), that reported screening accuracy results, or that drew negative conclusions (reference = positive conclusions) were more likely to contribute data. Studies of the Geriatric Depression Scale (reference = the Patient Health Questionnaire) or lacking funding information were negatively associated with data contribution. Over 80% of noncontributions were due to authors being unreachable or data being unavailable. CONCLUSION: The study identified factors associated with data contribution that may support future research to promote data contribution to IPDMAs.

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BACKGROUND: Individual participant data meta-analyses (IPD-MAs), which involve harmonising and analysing participant-level data from related studies, provide several advantages over aggregate data meta-analyses, which pool study-level findings. IPD-MAs are especially important for building and evaluating diagnostic and prognostic models, making them an important tool for informing the research and public health responses to COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a rapid systematic review of protocols and publications from planned, ongoing, or completed COVID-19-related IPD-MAs to identify areas of overlap and maximise data request and harmonisation efforts. We searched four databases using a combination of text and MeSH terms. Two independent reviewers determined eligibility at the title-abstract and full-text stages. Data were extracted by one reviewer into a pretested data extraction form and subsequently reviewed by a second reviewer. Data were analysed using a narrative synthesis approach. A formal risk of bias assessment was not conducted. RESULTS: We identified 31 COVID-19-related IPD-MAs, including five living IPD-MAs and ten IPD-MAs that limited their inference to published data (e.g., case reports). We found overlap in study designs, populations, exposures, and outcomes of interest. For example, 26 IPD-MAs included RCTs; 17 IPD-MAs were limited to hospitalised patients. Sixteen IPD-MAs focused on evaluating medical treatments, including six IPD-MAs for antivirals, four on antibodies, and two that evaluated convalescent plasma. CONCLUSIONS: Collaboration across related IPD-MAs can leverage limited resources and expertise by expediting the creation of cross-study participant-level data datasets, which can, in turn, fast-track evidence synthesis for the improved diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: 10.17605/OSF.IO/93GF2.

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BACKGROUND: In IVF/ICSI treatment, the process of embryo implantation is the success rate-limiting step. Endometrial scratching has been suggested to improve this process, but it is unclear if this procedure increases the chance of implantation and live birth (LB) and, if so, for whom, and how the scratch should be performed. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: This individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) aims to answer the question of whether endometrial scratching in women undergoing IVF/ICSI influences the chance of a LB, and whether this effect is different in specific subgroups of women. After its incidental discovery in 2000, endometrial scratching has been suggested to improve embryo implantation. Numerous randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have been conducted, showing contradicting results. Conventional meta-analyses were limited by high within- and between-study heterogeneity, small study samples, and a high risk of bias for many of the trials. Also, the data integrity of several trials have been questioned. Thus, despite numerous RCTs and a multitude of conventional meta-analyses, no conclusion on the clinical effectiveness of endometrial scratching could be drawn. An IPD-MA approach is able to overcome many of these problems because it allows for increased uniformity of outcome definitions, can filter out studies with data integrity concerns, enables a more precise estimation of the true treatment effect thanks to adjustment for participant characteristics and not having to make the assumptions necessary in conventional meta-analyses, and because it allows for subgroup analysis. SEARCH METHODS: A systematic literature search identified RCTs on endometrial scratching in women undergoing IVF/ICSI. Authors of eligible studies were invited to share original data for this IPD-MA. Studies were assessed for risk of bias (RoB) and integrity checks were performed. The primary outcome was LB, with a one-stage intention to treat (ITT) as the primary analysis. Secondary analyses included as treated (AT), and the subset of women that underwent an embryo transfer (AT+ET). Treatment-covariate interaction for specific participant characteristics was analyzed in AT+ET. OUTCOMES: Out of 37 published and 15 unpublished RCTs (7690 participants), 15 RCTs (14 published, one unpublished) shared data. After data integrity checks, we included 13 RCTs (12 published, one unpublished) representing 4112 participants. RoB was evaluated as 'low' for 10/13 RCTs. The one-stage ITT analysis for scratch versus no scratch/sham showed an improvement of LB rates (odds ratio (OR) 1.29 [95% CI 1.02-1.64]). AT, AT+ET, and low-RoB-sensitivity analyses yielded similar results (OR 1.22 [95% CI 0.96-1.54]; OR 1.25 [95% CI 0.99-1.57]; OR 1.26 [95% CI 1.03-1.55], respectively). Treatment-covariate interaction analysis showed no evidence of interaction with age, number of previous failed embryo transfers, treatment type, or infertility cause. WIDER IMPLICATIONS: This is the first meta-analysis based on IPD of more than 4000 participants, and it demonstrates that endometrial scratching may improve LB rates in women undergoing IVF/ICSI. Subgroup analysis for age, number of previous failed embryo transfers, treatment type, and infertility cause could not identify subgroups in which endometrial scratching performed better or worse. The timing of endometrial scratching may play a role in its effectiveness. The use of endometrial scratching in clinical practice should be considered with caution, meaning that patients should be properly counseled on the level of evidence and the uncertainties.

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Background The association between common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) and incident carotid plaque has not been characterized fully. We therefore aimed to precisely quantify the relationship between CCA-IMT and carotid plaque development. Methods and Results We undertook an individual participant data meta-analysis of 20 prospective studies from the Proof-ATHERO (Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis) consortium that recorded baseline CCA-IMT and incident carotid plaque involving 21 494 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease and without preexisting carotid plaque at baseline. Mean baseline age was 56 years (SD, 9 years), 55% were women, and mean baseline CCA-IMT was 0.71 mm (SD, 0.17 mm). Over a median follow-up of 5.9 years (5th-95th percentile, 1.9-19.0 years), 8278 individuals developed first-ever carotid plaque. We combined study-specific odds ratios (ORs) for incident carotid plaque using random-effects meta-analysis. Baseline CCA-IMT was approximately log-linearly associated with the odds of developing carotid plaque. The age-, sex-, and trial arm-adjusted OR for carotid plaque per SD higher baseline CCA-IMT was 1.40 (95% CI, 1.31-1.50; I2=63.9%). The corresponding OR that was further adjusted for ethnicity, smoking, diabetes, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.24-1.45; I2=59.4%; 14 studies; 16 297 participants; 6381 incident plaques). We observed no significant effect modification across clinically relevant subgroups. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies defining plaque as focal thickening yielded a comparable OR (1.38 [95% CI, 1.29-1.47]; I2=57.1%; 14 studies; 17 352 participants; 6991 incident plaques). Conclusions Our large-scale individual participant data meta-analysis demonstrated that CCA-IMT is associated with the long-term risk of developing first-ever carotid plaque, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

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PURPOSE: This individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) assesses exercise effects on self-reported cognitive functioning (CF) and investigates whether effects differ by patient-, intervention-, and exercise-related characteristics. METHODS: IPD from 16 exercise RCTs, including 1987 patients across multiple types of non-metastatic cancer, was pooled. A one-stage IPD-MA using linear mixed-effect models was performed to assess exercise effects on self-reported CF (z-score) and to identify whether the effect was moderated by sociodemographic, clinical, intervention- and exercise-related characteristics, or fatigue, depression, anxiety, and self-reported CF levels at start of the intervention (i.e., baseline). Models were adjusted for baseline CF and included a random intercept at study level to account for clustering of patients within studies. A sensitivity analysis was performed in patients who reported cognitive problems at baseline. RESULTS: Minimal significant beneficial exercise effects on self-reported CF (ß=-0.09 [-0.16; -0.02]) were observed, with slightly larger effects when the intervention was delivered post-treatment (n=745, ß=-0.13 [-0.24; -0.02]), and no significant effect during cancer treatment (n=1,162, ß=-0.08 [-0.18; 0.02]). Larger effects were observed in interventions of 12 weeks or shorter (ß=-0.14 [-0.25; -0.04]) or 24 weeks or longer (ß=-0.18 [-0.32; -0.02]), whereas no effects were observed in interventions of 12-24 weeks (ß=0.01 [-0.13; 0.15]). Exercise interventions were most beneficial when provided to patients without anxiety symptoms (ß=-0.10 [-0.19; -0.02]) or after completion of treatment in patients with cognitive problems (ß=-0.19 [-0.31; -0.06]). No other significant moderators were identified. CONCLUSIONS: This cross-cancer IPD meta-analysis observed small beneficial exercise effects on self-reported CF when the intervention was delivered post-treatment, especially in patients who reported cognitive problems at baseline. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: This study provides some evidence to support the prescription of exercise to improve cognitive functioning. Sufficiently powered trials are warranted to make more definitive recommendations and include these in the exercise guidelines for cancer survivors.