RESUMEN

Crash type, a key contributory factor of crash injury severity level, is typically included in crash severity models as an explanatory variable. However, certain unobserved factors could influence both the crash type and crash injury severity simultaneously. As such, there could exist an endogenous effect of crash type on crash injury severity. The present paper investigates this hypothesis using data from highway ramp areas. These locations tend to be crash-prone because of the frequent lane changes and speed differentials associated with merging, diverging, and weaving of vehicles at those locations. Conventional approaches used in past ramp safety studies modeled crash type and crash injury severity separately, not addressing the endogenous effect of crash type on crash severity at these locations. In this study, a random parameter recursive bivariate probit model is proposed to model the crash type (hit-object and rollover) and crash injury severity at ramp areas simultaneously and to account for any endogenous effect of crash type. The study used highway crash data from ramp areas at highway located in North Carolina from 2016 to 2018. The results indicate that the proposed model can and does capture the endogenous effect of crash type. The likelihood of injury for a rollover crash would be underestimated if endogeneity were not considered. Other exogenous variables including aberrant driving behavior, safety belt, road surface condition, lighting condition, area type, crash location, and ramp type that affect the type and injury severity of crashes at highway ramp areas were identified. The exogenous variables that are significant only for the crash type, such as vehicle type, and speed limit, were detected to have indirect effects on the crash injury severity. Furthermore, the effects of individual heterogeneity of the explanatory variables are considered. Female drivers and old drivers are statistically significant in the means of random parameters. The findings shed light on the potential need and effectiveness of prospective traffic management and control measures to mitigate crash risk at highway ramp areas.

RESUMEN

Understanding whether influenza vaccine promotion strategies produce community-wide indirect effects is important for establishing vaccine coverage targets and optimizing vaccine delivery. Empirical epidemiologic studies and mathematical models have been used to estimate indirect effects of vaccines but rarely for the same estimand in the same dataset. Using these approaches together could be a powerful tool for triangulation in infectious disease epidemiology because each approach is subject to distinct sources of bias. We triangulated evidence about indirect effects from a school-located influenza vaccination program using two approaches: a difference-in-difference (DID) analysis, and an age-structured, deterministic, compartmental model. The estimated indirect effect was substantially lower in the mathematical model than in the DID analysis (2.1% (95% Bayesian credible intervals 0.4 - 4.4%) vs. 22.3% (95% CI 7.6% - 37.1%)). To explore reasons for differing estimates, we used sensitivity analyses and probabilistic bias analyses. When we constrained model parameters such that projections matched the DID analysis, results only aligned with the DID analysis with substantially lower pre-existing immunity among school-age children and older adults. Conversely, DID estimates corrected for potential bias only aligned with mathematical model estimates under differential outcome misclassification. We discuss how triangulation using empirical and mathematical modelling approaches could strengthen future studies.

RESUMEN

Why does a beneficial treatment effect on a longitudinal biomarker not translate into overall treatment benefit on survival, when the biomarker is in fact a prognostic factor of survival? In a recent exploratory data analysis in oncology, we were faced with this seemingly paradoxical result. To address this problem, we applied a theoretically principled methodology called dynamic path analysis, which allows us to perform mediation analysis with a longitudinal mediator and survival outcome. The aim of the analysis is to decompose the total treatment effect into a direct treatment effect and an indirect treatment effect mediated through a carefully constructed mediation path. The dynamic nature of the underlying methodology enables us to describe how these effects evolve over time, which can add to the mechanistic understanding of the underlying processes. In this paper, we present a detailed description of the dynamic path analysis framework and illustrate its application to survival mediation analysis using simulated and real data. The use case analysis provides clarity on the specific exploratory question of interest while the methodology generalizes to a wide range of applications in drug development where time-to-event is the primary clinical outcome of interest.

RESUMEN

Learning English as a second language (ESL) has garnered significant attention from researchers and practitioners over the past few decades, with numerous ESL learning outcomes examined in the literature. However, self-sustained learning (SSL), a crucial factor in promoting students' sustained learning and development within a sustainable society, has long been overlooked. To deepen the understanding of SSL, especially in the context of ESL in China, this study examined the direct and indirect effects of intercultural communicative skills, language mindset, and positive L2 self on sustained English learning among 1238 Chinese college students through descriptive statistics and a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) mediation analysis. The results indicated that Chinese college students exhibited a strong language mindset and positive L2 self. They also scored high in intercultural communicative skills and long-term self-sustained English learning. SEM analysis showed that, after controlling for students' demographic characteristics, both intercultural communicative skills and language mindset positively predicted positive L2 self and self-sustained English learning. Moreover, intercultural communicative skills and language mindset had significant and positive indirect effects on self-sustained English learning through positive L2 self, underscoring the significant mediating role of positive L2 self in the relationships between intercultural communicative skills, language mindset, and self-sustained English learning. These findings suggest that, to promote self-sustained learning among English learners, instructors should enhance students' intercultural communicative skills, foster a growth language mindset, and cultivate positive language learning beliefs.

RESUMEN

Temperature and resource availability are pivotal factors influencing phytoplankton community structures. Numerous prior studies demonstrated their significant influence on phytoplankton stoichiometry, cell size, and growth rates. The growth rate, serving as a reflection of an organism's success within its environment, is linked to stoichiometry and cell size. Consequently, alterations in abiotic conditions affecting cell size or stoichiometry also exert indirect effects on growth. However, such results have their limitations, as most studies used a limited number of factors and factor levels which gives us limited insights into how phytoplankton respond to environmental conditions, directly and indirectly. Here, we tested for the generality of patterns found in other studies, using a combined multiple-factor gradient design and two single species with different size characteristics. We used a structural equation model (SEM) that allowed us to investigate the direct cumulative effects of temperature and resource availability (i.e., light, N and P) on phytoplankton growth, as well as their indirect effects on growth through changes in cell size and cell stoichiometry. Our results mostly support the results reported in previous research thus some effects can be identified as dominant effects. We identified rising temperature as the dominant driver for cell size reduction and increase in growth, and nutrient availability (i.e., N and P) as dominant factor for changes in cellular stoichiometry. However, indirect effects of temperature and resources (i.e., light and nutrients) on species' growth rates through cell size and cell stoichiometry differed across the two species suggesting different strategies to acclimate to its environment.

RESUMEN

Globally, pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are detected in surface waters receiving wastewater, yet their presence in biota, remain largely understudied. To address this, we conducted a study that measured 46 PPCPs in spot water samples and fish caught up- and downstream from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Victoria, Australia. We sampled 15 sites located along four waterways following a 3-site design: WWTP-discharge('hotspot'), 'upstream'(∼2 km) and 'downstream'(∼2 km). Spot water and fish were also sampled at reference sites >100 km from WWTP discharge (n = 3). Additionally, spot water samples were taken from WWTP effluent outflows (n = 3). From each locality, we analysed 3-12 fish (n = 131 total). In waterways, passive samplers (POCIS; ∼28d, n = 19 PPCPs) were also deployed. Individual fish (axial muscle) and water were analysed with LC-MS-MS. We found that PPCP concentrations in environmental surface water ranged from<0.02-0.97 µg/L. In WWTP effluent, the range was <0.02-1.4 µg/L. Of the 46 PPCPs analysed, 12 were detected in spot water samples and five in fish. In water, the highest concentration detected was for antidepressant venlafaxine (3 µg/L). The most frequently detected PPCPs: venlafaxine (54.9%), metoprolol (41.2%), propranolol (29.4%), carbamazepine (29.4%), caffeine (17.6%) and sulfamethoxazole (17.6%). Out of 131 fish analysed, 35 fish had detectable levels of PPCPs in the muscle tissue. The highest muscle concentrations were: venlafaxine (150 µg/kg, redfin perch), and sertraline (100 µg/kg, eel). Bioaccumulation factors ranged from 104 to 341L/kg for venlafaxine in redfins, 21-1,260L/kg for carbamazepine in redfins and eels, and 367-3,333L/kg for sertraline in eels. Based on our human health risk calculations for venlafaxine, carbamazepine, sertraline, triclosan, and caffeine, consumption of fish does not pose a significant risk to human health. Despite this, most of the detected PPCPs in surface waters exceeded 10 ng/L trigger value, which has led to further investigations by EPA. Our study highlights the need for using multiple lines of evidence for estimating risks of PPCPs.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Trophic interaction modifications (TIM) are widespread in natural systems and occur when a third species indirectly alters the strength of a trophic interaction. Past studies have focused on documenting the existence and magnitude of TIMs; however, the underlying processes and long-term consequences remain elusive. To address this gap, we experimentally quantified the density-dependent effect of a third species on a predator's functional response. We conducted short-term experiments with ciliate communities composed of a predator, prey and non-consumable 'modifier' species. In both communities, increasing modifier density weakened the trophic interaction strength, due to a negative effect on the predator's space clearance rate. Simulated long-term dynamics indicate quantitative differences between models that account for TIMs or include only pairwise interactions. Our study demonstrates that TIMs are important to understand and predict community dynamics and highlights the need to move beyond focal species pairs to understand the consequences of species interactions in communities.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Climate change stressors are progressively simplifying biogenic habitats in the terrestrial and marine realms, and consequently altering the structure of associated species communities. Here, we used a volcanic CO2 seep in Papua New Guinea to test in situ if altered reef architecture due to ocean acidification reshuffles associated fish assemblages. We observed replacement of branching corals by massive corals at the seep, with simplified coral architectural complexity driving abundance declines between 60% and 86% for an assemblage of damselfishes associated with branching corals. An experimental test of habitat preference for a focal species indicated that acidification does not directly affect habitat selection behaviour, with changes in habitat structural complexity consequently appearing to be the stronger driver of assemblage reshuffling. Habitat health affected anti-predator behaviour, with P. moluccensis becoming less bold on dead branching corals relative to live branching corals, irrespective of ocean acidification. We conclude that coral reef fish assemblages are likely to be more sensitive to changes in habitat structure induced by increasing pCO2 than any direct effects on behaviour, indicating that changes in coral architecture and live cover may act as important mediators of reef fish community structures in a future ocean.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Infection risk by pathogenic agents motivates hosts to avoid using resources with high risks. This, in turn, results in increased availability of these resources for other species that are more tolerant of infections. For instance, carcasses of mammalian carnivores are frequently avoided by conspecific or closely related carnivores, allowing them to be almost exclusively used by maggots. This may lead to novel interactions with other species. This study investigated the consumption of maggots from carnivore carcasses by non-corvid passerines. We successfully monitored 66 raccoon carcasses in Hokkaido, Japan, from 2016 to 2019. Vertebrates only scavenged 14 carcasses before maggot dispersal; the other 52 carcasses produced abundant maggots that regularly fed at least 12 species of non-corvid passerines. Surprisingly, predation occurred at a distance from the carcasses, mainly after maggot dispersal for pupation, despite the higher efficiency of feeding on maggot masses on the carcasses. Birds are likely to reduce the potential risk of infection from the carcass and/or from maggots on the carcasses. Overall, only 1% of maggots were consumed. Our results suggest that necrophagous flies could benefit from the infection risk associated with carnivore carcasses, which may decrease scavenging by other carnivores and constrain maggot consumption by insectivorous birds.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Warming global temperatures have consequences for biological rates. Feeding rates reflect the intake of energy that fuels survival, growth and reproduction. However, temperature can also affect food abundance and quality, as well as feeding behavior, which all affect feeding rate, making it challenging to understand the pathways by which temperature affects the intake of energy. Therefore, we experimentally assessed how clearance rate varied across a thermal gradient in a filter-feeding colonial marine invertebrate (the bryozoan Bugula neritina). We also assessed how temperature affects phytoplankton as a food source, and zooid states within a colony that affect energy budgets and feeding behavior. Clearance rate increased linearly from 18°C to 32°C, a temperature range that the population experiences most of the year. However, temperature increased algal cell size, and decreased the proportion of feeding zooids, suggesting indirect effects of temperature on clearance rates. Temperature increased polypide regression, possibly as a stress response because satiation occurred quicker, or because phytoplankton quality declined. Temperature had a greater effect on clearance rate per feeding zooid than it did per total zooids. Together, these results suggest that the effect of temperature on clearance rate at the colony level is not just the outcome of individual zooids feeding more in direct response to temperature but also emerges from temperature increasing polypide regression and the remaining zooids increasing their feeding rates in response. Our study highlights some of the challenges for understanding why temperature affects feeding rates, especially for understudied, yet ecologically important, marine colonial organisms.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

The present study investigated the mediating effects of emotional intelligence and self-esteem between youth sports participation and life satisfaction, as well as the comparative effects of different types of sports involvement (team, individual, and non-participation) on these selected variables. A sample of 1053 Portuguese adolescents (612 girls and 441 boys), aged between 12 and 18 years (M = 14.40; SD = 1.55), completed the following self-report measures: the Wong and Law Emotional Intelligence Scale, the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, and the Satisfaction with Life Scale. The structural equation modeling results indicated a complete mediating role of two emotional intelligence dimensions (use of emotion and self-emotional appraisal) and self-esteem in the relationship between sports participation and adolescents' life satisfaction. Team sport participants reported higher emotional intelligence and self-esteem scores than their non-sport participant counterparts who revealed lower levels of emotion use than their individual sport participant peers. These findings provide novel insights into the potential emotional and psychological mechanisms underlying the association between youth sports participation and life satisfaction.

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: This study takes on the challenge of quantifying a complex causal loop diagram describing how poverty and health affect each other, and does so using longitudinal data from The Netherlands. Furthermore, this paper elaborates on its methodological approach in order to facilitate replication and methodological advancement. METHODS: After adapting a causal loop diagram that was built by stakeholders, a longitudinal structural equation modelling approach was used. A cross-lagged panel model with nine endogenous variables, of which two latent variables, and three time-invariant exogenous variables was constructed. With this model, directional effects are estimated in a Granger-causal manner, using data from 2015 to 2019. Both the direct effects (with a one-year lag) and total effects over multiple (up to eight) years were calculated. Five sensitivity analyses were conducted. Two of these focus on lower-income and lower-wealth individuals. The other three each added one exogenous variable: work status, level of education, and home ownership. RESULTS: The effects of income and financial wealth on health are present, but are relatively weak for the overall population. Sensitivity analyses show that these effects are stronger for those with lower incomes or wealth. Physical capability does seem to have strong positive effects on both income and financial wealth. There are a number of other results as well, as the estimated models are extensive. Many of the estimated effects only become substantial after several years. CONCLUSIONS: Income and financial wealth appear to have limited effects on the health of the overall population of The Netherlands. However, there are indications that these effects may be stronger for individuals who are closer to the poverty threshold. Since the estimated effects of physical capability on income and financial wealth are more substantial, a broad recommendation would be that including physical capability in efforts that are aimed at improving income and financial wealth could be useful and effective. The methodological approach described in this paper could also be applied to other research settings or topics.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Incarcerated populations experienced high rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and death during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. To evaluate vaccine effectiveness in the carceral context, we investigated the first outbreak of COVID-19 in a California state prison following widespread rollout of vaccines to residents in early 2021. We identified a cohort of 733 state prison residents presumed to be exposed between May 14 and June 22, 2021. 46.9 % (n = 344) were vaccinated, primarily with two doses of mRNA-1273 (n = 332, 93.6 %). In total, 92 PCR-positive cases were identified, of which 14 (14.5 %) occurred among mRNA-1273 vaccinated residents. No cases required hospitalization. All nine isolates collected belonged to the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to estimate vaccine effectiveness for at least one dose of any vaccine at the start of the outbreak. Vaccine effectiveness was 86 % (95 % CI: 75 %-97 %) against PCR-confirmed infection, with similar results for symptomatic infection. Higher rates of building-level vaccine uptake were associated with a lower overall rate of PCR-confirmed infection and symptomatic infection among unvaccinated residents. Among unvaccinated residents who lived in shared cells at the time of presumed exposure, exposure to a vaccinated cellmate was associated with a 38% (95% CI: 0.37, 1.04) lower hazard rate of PCR-confirmed infection over the study period. In this outbreak involving the Alpha SARS-CoV-2 variant, vaccination conferred direct and possibly indirect protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19. Our results support the importance of vaccine uptake in mitigating outbreaks and severe disease in the prison setting and the consideration of community vaccination levels in policy and infection response.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Mediation analysis is appealing for its ability to improve understanding of the mechanistic drivers of causal effects, but real-world data complexities challenge its successful implementation, including (i) the existence of post-exposure variables that also affect mediators and outcomes (thus, confounding the mediator-outcome relationship), that may also be (ii) multivariate, and (iii) the existence of multivariate mediators. All three challenges are present in the mediation analysis we consider here, where our goal is to estimate the indirect effects of receiving a Section 8 housing voucher as a young child on the risk of developing a psychiatric mood disorder in adolescence that operate through mediators related to neighborhood poverty, the school environment, and instability of the neighborhood and school environments, considered together and separately. Interventional direct and indirect effects (IDE/IIE) accommodate post-exposure variables that confound the mediator-outcome relationship, but currently, no readily implementable nonparametric estimator for IDE/IIE exists that allows for both multivariate mediators and multivariate post-exposure intermediate confounders. The absence of such an IDE/IIE estimator that can easily accommodate both multivariate mediators and post-exposure confounders represents a significant limitation for real-world analyses, because when considering each mediator subgroup separately, the remaining mediator subgroups (or a subset of them) become post-exposure intermediate confounders. We address this gap by extending a recently developed nonparametric estimator for the IDE/IIE to allow for easy incorporation of multivariate mediators and multivariate post-exposure confounders simultaneously. We apply the proposed estimation approach to our analysis, including walking through a strategy to account for other, possibly co-occurring intermediate variables when considering each mediator subgroup separately.

RESUMEN

Landscapes of fear can determine the dynamics of entire ecosystems. In response to perceived predation risk, prey can show physiological, behavioral, or morphological trait changes to avoid predation. This in turn can indirectly affect other species by modifying species interactions (e.g., altered feeding), with knock-on effects, such as trophic cascades, on the wider ecosystem. While such indirect effects stemming from the fear of predation have received extensive attention for herbivore-plant and predator-prey interactions, much less is known about how they alter parasite-host interactions and wildlife diseases. In this synthesis, we present a conceptual framework for how predation risk-as perceived by organisms that serve as hosts-can affect parasite-host interactions, with implications for infectious disease dynamics. By basing our approach on recent conceptual advances with respect to predation risk effects, we aim to expand this general framework to include parasite-host interactions and diseases. We further identify pathways through which parasite-host interactions can be affected, for example, through altered parasite avoidance behavior or tolerance of hosts to infections, and discuss the wider relevance of predation risk for parasite and host populations, including heuristic projections to population-level dynamics. Finally, we highlight the current unknowns, specifically the quantitative links from individual-level processes to population dynamics and community structure, and emphasize approaches to address these knowledge gaps.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Our work was motivated by the question whether, and to what extent, well-established risk factors mediate the racial disparity observed for colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in the United States. Mediation analysis examines the relationships between an exposure, a mediator and an outcome. All available methods require access to a single complete data set with these three variables. However, because population-based studies usually include few non-White participants, these approaches have limited utility in answering our motivating question. Recently, we developed novel methods to integrate several data sets with incomplete information for mediation analysis. These methods have two limitations: (i) they only consider a single mediator and (ii) they require a data set containing individual-level data on the mediator and exposure (and possibly confounders) obtained by independent and identically distributed sampling from the target population. Here, we propose a new method for mediation analysis with several different data sets that accommodates complex survey and registry data, and allows for multiple mediators. The proposed approach yields unbiased causal effects estimates and confidence intervals with nominal coverage in simulations. We apply our method to data from U.S. cancer registries, a U.S.-population-representative survey and summary level odds-ratio estimates, to rigorously evaluate what proportion of the difference in CRC risk between non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks is mediated by three potentially modifiable risk factors (CRC screening history, body mass index, and regular aspirin use).

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Unraveling the neurobiological foundations of childhood maltreatment is important due to the persistent associations with adverse mental health outcomes. However, the mechanisms through which abuse and neglect disturb resting-state network connectivity remain elusive. Moreover, it remains unclear if positive parenting can mitigate the negative impact of childhood maltreatment on network connectivity. We analyzed a cohort of 194 adolescents and young adults (aged 14-25, 47.42% female) from the Neuroscience in Psychiatry Network (NSPN) to investigate the impact of childhood abuse and neglect on resting-state network connectivity. Specifically, we examined the SAN, DMN, FPN, DAN, and VAN over time. We also explored the moderating role of positive parenting. The results showed that childhood abuse was linked to stronger connectivity within the SAN and VAN, as well as between the DMN-DAN, DMN-VAN, DMN-SAN, SAN-DAN, FPN-DAN, SAN-VAN, and VAN-DAN networks about 18 months later. Positive parenting during childhood buffered the negative impact of childhood abuse on network connectivity. To our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate the protective effect of positive parenting on network connectivity following childhood abuse. These findings not only highlight the importance of positive parenting but also lead to a better understanding of the neurobiology and resilience mechanisms of childhood maltreatment.

RESUMEN

Microorganisms associated with plant roots significantly impact the quality and quantity of plant defences. However, the bottom-up effects of soil microbes on the aboveground multitrophic interactions remain largely under studied. To address this gap, we investigated the chemically-mediated effects of nitrogen-fixing rhizobia on legume-herbivore-parasitoid multitrophic interactions. To address this, we initially examined the cascading effects of the rhizobia bean association on herbivore caterpillars, their parasitoids, and subsequently investigated how rhizobia influence on plant volatiles and extrafloral nectar. Our goal was to understand how these plant-mediated effects can affect parasitoids. Lima bean plants (Phaseoulus lunatus) inoculated with rhizobia exhibited better growth, and the number of root nodules positively correlated with defensive cyanogenic compounds. Despite increase of these chemical defences, Spodoptera latifascia caterpillars preferred to feed and grew faster on rhizobia-inoculated plants. Moreover, the emission of plant volatiles after leaf damage showed distinct patterns between inoculation treatments, with inoculated plants producing more sesquiterpenes and benzyl nitrile than non-inoculated plants. Despite these differences, Euplectrus platyhypenae parasitoid wasps were similarly attracted to rhizobia- or no rhizobia-treated plants. Yet, the oviposition and offspring development of E. platyhypenae was better on caterpillars fed with rhizobia-inoculated plants. We additionally show that rhizobia-inoculated common bean plants (Phaseolus vulgaris) produced more extrafloral nectar, with higher hydrocarbon concentration, than non-inoculated plants. Consequently, parasitoids performed better when fed with extrafloral nectar from rhizobia-inoculated plants. While the overall effects of bean-rhizobia symbiosis on caterpillars were positive, rhizobia also indirectly benefited parasitoids through the caterpillar host, and directly through the improved production of high quality extrafloral nectar. This study underscores the importance of exploring diverse facets and chemical mechanisms that influence the dynamics between herbivores and predators. This knowledge is crucial for gaining a comprehensive understanding of the ecological implications of rhizobia symbiosis on these interactions.

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multi-country study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile. METHODS: Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000-2019, with 1,795,789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the post-vaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends. RESULTS: No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among ≥65 years in Chile. DISCUSSION: While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type-specific IPD cases.

RESUMEN

Biological manipulation, involving fish stockings, is commonly used to counteract the deterioration of submerged vegetation in eutrophic lakes. Nevertheless, the non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of stocked carnivorous fish are often overlooked. Using a controlled experimental system, we investigated the NCEs of a native carnivorous fish, snakehead (Channa argus), on two key biological factors, herbivore-dominated grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) and disturbance-dominated loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus), influencing submerged plants growth. Additionally, we conducted a meta-analysis on predation risk and primary productivity. The results reveal that predation risk induces oxidative stress damage and affects grass carp growth. Non-significant changes in cortisol and glucose may be linked to predation risk prediction. Simultaneously, predation risk reduces fish feeding and disturbance behavior, relieving pressure on submerged plants to be grazed and disturbed, thereby supporting plant development. The presence of submerged plants, in turn, enhances loach activity and influences water body characteristics through negative feedback. Furthermore, the meta-analysis results indicate the facilitative effect of predation risk on primary producers. Our findings contribute to the understanding of biological manipulation theory. We demonstrate that the predation risk associated with introducing carnivorous fish can promote the growth of submerged plants through behaviorally mediated indirect effects. This highlights the potential utility of predation risk in lake restoration efforts.

Asunto(s)