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Worldwide, there are an insufficient number of primary care physicians to provide accessible, high-quality primary care services. Better knowledge on the health impacts of policies aimed at improving access to primary care physicians is important for informing future policies. Using a generalised synthetic control estimator (GSC), we estimate the effect of the increase in primary care physicians from the Programa Mais Médicos in Brazil. The GSC allows us to estimates a continuous treatment effects which are heterogenous by region. We exploit the variation in physicians allocated to each Brazilian microregion to identify the impact of an increasing Mais Médicos primary care physicians. We explore hospitalisations and mortality rates (both total and from ambulatory care sensitive conditions) as outcomes. Our analysis differs from previous work by estimating the impact of the increase in physician numbers, as opposed to the overall impact of programme participation. We examine the impact on hospitalisations and mortality rates and employ a panel dataset with monthly observations of all Brazilian microregion over the period 2008-2017. We find limited effects of an increase in primary care physicians impacting health outcomes - with no significant impact of the Programa Mais Médicos on hospitalisations or mortality rates. Potential explanations include substitution of other health professionals, impacts materialising over the longer-term, and poor within-region allocation of Mais Médicos physicians.

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Background: Robust evidence on the relationship between primary care and emergency admissions is lacking in low- and middle-income countries. This study evaluates how the phased roll out of the family health strategy (FHS) to the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil affected emergency hospital admissions and readmissions from ambulatory-care sensitives conditions (ACSCs). Methods: A cohort of 1.2 million adults in Rio de Janeiro city were followed for five years (Jan 2012 to Dec 2016). The association between FHS use and the likelihood of emergency hospital admissions and 30-day readmissions were evaluated using multi-level Poisson regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA) for socioeconomic and household characteristics. Inequalities in associations were examined across groups of causes and by key socioeconomic groups. Results: Records from 2,551,934 primary care consultations and 15,627 admissions were analysed. In IPTW-RA analyses, each additional FHS consultation was associated with a 3% lower rate of ACSC admission (RR: 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95, 0.98), a 63% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from any non-birth cause (RR: 0.37; 95%CI: 0.30, 0.46), and an 57% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from ACSCs (RR: 0.43; 95%CI: 0.33, 0.55). Individuals who were older, had the lowest educational attainment, were unemployed, and had higher incomes had larger reductions in ACSC admissions associated with FHS use. Interpretation: Investment in primary care is important for reducing emergency hospital admissions and their associated costs in LMICs. Funding: DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.

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BACKGROUND: Evidence is limited on racial/ethnic group disparities in multimorbidity and associated health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries hampering effective policies and clinical interventions to address health inequalities. METHODS: This study assessed race/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and associated healthcare utilisation, costs and death in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A cross-sectional analysis was carried out of 3,027,335 individuals registered with primary healthcare (PHC) services. Records included linked data to hospitalisation, mortality, and welfare-claimant (Bolsa Família) records between 1 Jan 2012 and 31 Dec 2016. Logistic and Poisson regression models were carried out to assess the likelihood of multimorbidity (two or more diagnoses out of 53 chronic conditions), PHC use, hospital admissions and mortality from any cause. Interactions were used to assess disparities. RESULTS: In total 13,509,633 healthcare visits were analysed identifying 389,829 multimorbid individuals (13%). In adjusted regression models, multimorbidity was associated with lower education (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.26; 95%CI: 1.23,1.29; compared to higher education), Bolsa Família receipt (AOR: 1.14; 95%CI: 1.13,1.15; compared to non-recipients); and black race/ethnicity (AOR: 1.05; 95%CI: 1.03,1.06; compared to white). Multimorbidity was associated with more hospitalisations (Adjusted Rate Ratio (ARR): 2.75; 95%CI: 2.69,2.81), more PHC visits (ARR: 3.46; 95%CI: 3.44,3.47), and higher likelihood of death (AOR: 1.33; 95%CI: 1.29,1.36). These associations were greater for multimorbid individuals with lower educational attainment (five year probability of death 1.67% (95%CI: 1.61,1.74%) compared to 1.13% (95%CI: 1.02,1.23%) for higher education), individuals of black race/ethnicity (1.48% (95%CI: 1.41,1.55%) compared to 1.35% (95%CI: 1.31,1.40%) for white) and individuals in receipt of welfare (1.89% (95%CI: 1.77,2.00%) compared to 1.35% (95%CI: 1.31,1.38%) for non-recipients). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of multimorbidity and associated hospital admissions and mortality are greater in individuals with black race/ethnicity and other deprived socioeconomic groups in Rio de Janeiro. Interventions to better prevent and manage multimorbidity and underlying disparities in low- and middle-income country settings are needed.

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This study aimed to analyse the survival of patients admitted to Brazilian hospitals due to the COVID-19 and estimate prognostic factors. This is a retrospective, multicentre cohort study, based on data from 46 285 hospitalisations for COVID-19 in Brazil. Survival functions were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier's method. The log-rank test compared the survival functions for each variable and from that, hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated, and the proportional hazard model was used in Cox multiple regression. The smallest survival curves were the ones for patients at the age of 68 years or more, black/mixed race, illiterate, living in the countryside, dyspnoea, respiratory distress, influenza-like outbreak, O2 saturation <95%, X-ray change, length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU), invasive ventilatory support, previous heart disease, pneumopathy, diabetes, Down's syndrome, neurological disease and kidney disease. Better survival was observed in the influenza-like outbreak and in an asthmatic patient. The multiple model for increased risk of death when they were admitted to the ICU HR 1.28, diabetes HR 1.17, neurological disease HR 1.34, kidney disease HR 1.11, heart disease HR 1.14, black or mixed race of HR 1.50, asthma HR 0.71 and pneumopathy HR 1.12. This reinforces the importance of socio-demographic and clinical factors as a prognosis for death.

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Resumo Este estudo tem como objetivo comparar para a última década, as taxas padronizadas de internações por condições sensíveis à atenção primária à saúde (ICSAP) no Distrito Federal (DF), cotejando-as com capitais selecionadas, faixa etária e grupos ICSAP. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico com dados secundários oriundos dos microdados do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH-SUS), para o período de 2009 a 2018. Nesse intervalo, houve redução da participação relativa das ICSAP nas faixas etárias de 50 a 59 e 60 a 69 anos e estabilidade na proporção dessas internações entre crianças e adolescentes no DF. Por outro lado, a não redução nas faixas etárias ≤ 20 anos, uma população prioritária na APS, pode representar barreiras de acesso dessa população. Os resultados evidenciam a não observação dos efeitos esperados de redução na proporção das ICSAP, devido ao fato da expansão de cobertura de Equipes de Saúde da Família ter sido recente.

Abstract This study compared standardised rates of hospitalisations due to ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) in Brazil's Federal District from 2009 to 2018, as compared with those for selected state capitals, age groups and admissions groups. This ecological study used secondary data drawn from Hospital Information System microdata for the study period, during which, in the Federal District, the proportion of such admissions among 50-59 and 60-69 year olds declined, while those among children and adolescents held stable. Meanwhile, rates did not decrease in the ≤ 20 year age groups, a priority population in PHC, which may suggest that this population encountered barriers to access. The results showed that the expected reduction in the proportion of such admissions has not occurred, because coverage by Family Health Teams has been expanded only recently.

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A sizeable proportion of all suicides have mental health issues in the background. The association between access to mental health care in the community and decreased suicide rates is inconsistent in the literature. Brazil undertook a major psychiatric reform strengthening psychiatric community-based care. To evaluate the impact of the new Brazilian community mental health care units (CAPS-Psychosocial-Community-Centres) on municipal rates of suicide, and hospitalisations by attempted suicide, psychiatric and alcohol problems. We performed robust multivariable negative binomial regression models with fixed effect for panel data from all 5507 Brazilian municipalities. Suicide and hospitalization rates were calculated by sex and standardised by age for each municipality and year from 2008 to 2012. The main variable of interest was municipal CAPS coverage. CAPS municipal coverage was associated with lower suicide rates but this was not statistically significant (RR: 0.981; 95% CI 0.952-1.011). However, increased CAPS coverage was associated with lower hospitalizations for attempted suicide (RR: 0.887; 95% CI 0.841-0.935), psychiatric (RR: 0.841; 95% CI 0.821-0.862), and alcohol problems (RR: 0.882; 95% CI 0.860-0.904). Our results suggest that access to community mental health services seems to reduce hospitalisations due to attempted suicide, psychiatric and alcohol problems but not suicidal rates. Therefore, increased investments in community mental health services in low-middle-income countries might decrease costs associated with potentially avoidable hospitalizations.

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The number of dengue epidemics in Brazil has increased dramatically in the last 15 years. In this study, we analysed the seasonal patterns in the incidence of hospitalisations due to dengue across the different states of Brazil and compared these with the corresponding climatic patterns. We discovered that the seasonality of dengue hospitalisations in Brazil has a clear zonal gradient, characterised by the progression of primary peaks from West to East during the first half of the year, which may be associated with the increased vapour pressure and rainfall during this period, leading to increased mosquito abundance and activity. We also found that the proportion of children among hospitalised individuals was especially high during the peak outbreaks in 2007/2008 and 2010. This may be due to the emergence and spread of the new DENV-2 Southeast Asian genotype lineage II from 2007, which has probably arrived from the Caribbean and may have caused an increase in incidence and severity of the disease, particularly among children. Our findings may allow health systems to improve control interventions and contribute to reducing dengue morbidity and mortality by using integrated vector control in conjunction with early diagnosis and prompt supportive care.

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BACKGROUND: The epidemiology and hospitalisation trends of primary immunodeficiency (PID) in Chile are unknown. We aimed to evaluate hospitalisation trends and demographic characteristics of PID admissions in Chile. METHODS: PID admissions between 2001 and 2010 (ICD-10 codes D70.0, D70.4, D71, 72.0, D76.1, D80-D84, E70.3, G11.3) were reviewed using national hospital discharge databases. RESULTS: During the study period, 5486 admissions due to PID were registered (0.03% of total). 58.5% of patients were male and 66.3% were under 18 years. Median length of stay was one day (range 1-403 days). The most frequent diagnoses were hypogammaglobulinaemia (27.6%), unspecified immunodeficiency (21.9%), haemophagocytic lymphohystiocytosis (18.3%) and common variable immunodeficiency (11.2%). There was a significant increase in PID admission rate and in one-day hospitalisations during this period (ß=0.2; P=0.001 and ß=33; P≤0.001, respectively), however no significant variation was found for longer admissions (ß=4.8; P=0.175). The increasing trend in PID admission rate was significant in patients with private, but not public insurance (ß=0.53; P≤0.001 vs. ß=0.08; P=0.079, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We report an increasing trend in admissions due to PID in Chile over a 10-year period. Increase is mainly due to short hospitalisations, possibly accounting for improvements in IVIG access. Higher admission rates in patients with private vs. public insurance suggest socioeconomic disparities in access to PID treatment. ICD-10 coded hospitalisation databases may be useful to determine hospitalisation trends and demographic characteristics of PID admissions worldwide.

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BACKGROUND: The prevalence of diabetes among adults in Mexico has increased markedly from 6.7 % in 1994 to 14.7 % in 2015. Although the main diabetic complications can be prevented or delayed with timely and effective primary care, a high percentage of diabetic patients have developed them imposing an important preventable burden on Mexican society and on the health system. This paper estimates the financial and health burden caused by potentially preventable hospitalisations due to diabetic complications in hospitals operated by the largest social security institution in Latin America, the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS), in the period 2007-2014. METHODS: Hospitalisations in IMSS hospitals whose main cause was a diabetic complication were identified. The financial burden was estimated using IMSS diagnostic-related groups. To estimate the health burden, DALYs were computed under the assumption that patients would not have experienced complications if they had received timely and effective primary care. RESULTS: A total of 322,977 hospitalisations due to five diabetic complications were identified during the period studied, of which hospitalisations due to kidney failure and diabetic foot represent 78 %. The financial burden increased by 8.4 % in real terms between 2007 and 2014. However, when measured as cost per IMSS affiliate, it decreased by 11.3 %. The health burden had an overall decrease of 13.6 % and the associated DALYs in 2014 reached 103,688. CONCLUSIONS: Resources used for the hospital treatment of diabetic complications are then not available for other health care interventions. In order to prevent these hospitalisations more resources might need to be invested in primary care; the first step could be to consider the financial burden of these hospitalisations as a potential target for switching resources from hospital care to primary care services. However, more evidence of the effectiveness of different primary care interventions is needed to know how much of the burden could be prevented by better primary care.

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Objective. To estimate the financial and health burden of diabetic ambulatory care sensitive hospitalisations (ACSH) in Mexico during 2001-2011. Materials and methods. We identified ACSH due to diabetic complications in general hospitals run by local health ministries and estimated their financial cost using diagnostic related groups. The health burden estimation assumes that patients would not have experienced complications if they had received appropriate primary care and computes the associated Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Results. The financial cost of diabetic ACSH increased by 125% in real terms and their health burden in 2010 accounted for 4.2% of total DALYs associated with diabetes in Mexico. Conclusion. Avoiding preventable hospitalisations could free resources within the health system for other health purposes. In addition, patients with ACSH suffer preventable losses of health that should be considered when assessing the performance of any primary care intervention.

Objetivos. Estimar la carga financiera y de salud de las hospitalizaciones relacionadas con diabetes sensibles a la atención ambulatoria (HSAA) en México durante 2001-2011. Material y métodos. Se identificaron HSAA relacionadas con complicaciones diabéticas en hospitales generales operados por los servicios estatales de salud y se estimó su costo financiero utilizando grupos relacionados por diagnóstico. Para estimar la carga de salud se supuso que los pacientes no hubieran sufrido complicaciones diabéticas si hubieran recibido atención primaria adecuada y se calcularon los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD). Resultados. El costo financiero de las HSAA diabéticas aumentó 125% en términos reales y la carga de salud en 2010 representó 4.2% del total de AVAD asociados con la diabetes en México. Conclusiones. Evitar hospitalizaciones prevenibles libera recursos dentro del sistema de salud. Adicionalmente, pacientes con HSAA sufren pérdidas de salud prevenibles que deben tomarse en cuenta al evaluar el desempeño de la atención primaria.

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Low back pain (LBP) is the most common cause of pain in adults and the second health condition that prompts patients to seek ambulatory medical care visits. To analyse the impact of LBP on hospitalisations in healthcare facilities within the official subsector in Argentina between 2006 and 2010. Discharges in which the original diagnosis had been either adult LBP or lumbosciatica were assessed. The data comprised age, gender, province of residence, average length of stay (LOS) in the hospital, intra-hospital death, and the Provincial Human Development Index (PHDI). 17,859 discharges had an original diagnosis of LBP and 10,948 of lumbosciatica, which jointly accounted for 18.7 % of all the discharges documented for Diseases of Osteomuscular System and Connective Tissue (DOMS). Hospital discharges of female patients represented 53.7 %. The average age upon admission was 47.7 years in men versus 47.9 in women. The average LOS was slightly higher in men (4.2 vs. 3.8 days, p 0.01). In provinces with a PHDI below the national average, a surgical procedure was performed in 3.1 % of the discharges versus 4.1 % in the provinces with a PHDI above the national average (p < 0.001). LBP was the most frequent cause of hospitalisation due to DOMS. It occurred with a slightly higher frequency in women and prompted short hospitalisations. A surgical procedure was carried out during hospitalisation in very few cases, but the percentage of surgeries during hospitalisation was higher in provinces with a PHDI above the national average.

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Ambulatory care sensitive hospitalisations (ACSH) have been widely used to study the quality and effectiveness of primary care. Using data from 248 general hospitals in Mexico during 2001-2011 we identify 926,769 ACSHs in 188 health jurisdictions before and during the health insurance expansion that took place in this period, and estimate a fixed effects model to explain the association of the jurisdiction ACSH rate with patient and community factors. National ACSH rate increased by 50%, but trends and magnitude varied at the jurisdiction and state level. We find strong associations of the ACSH rate with socioeconomic conditions, health care supply and health insurance coverage even after controlling for potential endogeneity in the rolling out of the insurance programme. We argue that the traditional focus on the increase/decrease of the ACSH rate might not be a valid indicator to assess the effectiveness of primary care in a health insurance expansion setting, but that the ACSH rate is useful when compared between and within states once the variation in insurance coverage is taken into account as it allows the identification of differences in the provision of primary care. The high heterogeneity found in the ACSH rates suggests important state and jurisdiction differences in the quality and effectiveness of primary care in Mexico.

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