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Traffic crash risk prediction models have been developed to investigate crash occurrence mechanisms and analyze the effects of various traffic operation factors, data on which are collected by densely deployed detectors, on crash risk. However, in China, freeway detectors are widely spaced (the spacing is usually more than 2 km) and the road geometries vary frequently, especially in mountainous areas. Moreover, many freeway sections are located in urban areas and serve commuting functions. Due to the different mechanisms of crash occurrence on road segments with different geometric design features and traffic operation status, it is necessary to consider these heterogeneities in crash risk prediction. In addition to considering observable heterogeneous effects, it is equally important to consider the existence of unobserved heterogeneities among crash units. This study focuses on the effects of different types of heterogeneities on crash risk for segments of the Yongtaiwen Freeway in Zhejiang Province, China, using crash, traffic flow, and road geometric design data. Latent class analysis (LCA), latent profile analysis (LPA), and a combination of both methods are respectively used to classify road segments into subgroups based on road geometric design features, the traffic operation status, and a combination of both. The results reveal that the binary logit model considering the heterogeneous effects of the combination of road geometric design features and the traffic operation status achieves the best performance. Furthermore, binary conditional logit models and grouped random parameter logit models are developed to analyze the unobserved heterogeneity among crash units, and the results show that the latter has a better goodness of fit. Finally, a paradigm of the crash risk prediction for freeway segments with widely-spaced traffic detectors and frequently-changing geometric features is provided for traffic safety management departments.

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The impacts of the availability and spatial configuration of urban green spaces (UGS) on their cooling effects can vary with background climate conditions. However, large-scale studies that assess the potential heterogeneous relationships of UGS availability and spatial configuration with urban thermal environment are still lacking. In this study, we investigated the impacts of UGS availability and spatial configuration on urban land surface temperature (LST) taking 306 cities in China as a case study covering a multi-biome-scale. We first calculated the availability of surrounding UGS for urban built-up pixels in each city using a distance-weighted approach, and its spatial configuration was quantified through the Gini coefficient. Then, we employed various regression models to explore how the impacts of UGS availability and the Gini coefficient on LST varies across different LST quantiles and between day- and nighttime. The results revealed that UGS availability was negatively associated with both daytime and nighttime LST, while the Gini coefficient showed a positive impact solely on daytime LST, indicating that an adequate and equally distributed UGS contributes to lower environmental temperatures during the daytime. Furthermore, the impact of UGS availability on LST decreased during both day- and nighttime with increased background LST quantiles. Whereas the impact of the Gini coefficient increased only with daytime LST quantile levels, with its effect remaining almost insignificant during the night. Our findings provide new insights into the impacts of UGS on urban thermal environment, offering significant implications for urban green infrastructure planning aiming at lowering the urban heat island.

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Background: Extant literature has primarily employed linear models to estimate the average effect of spanking on children. Less is known about child and parent characteristics that may predict differential risks of children's exposure to spanking (i.e., pre-treatment heterogeneity) and the effect of spanking on child outcomes that may differ by the propensity for spanking (i.e., post-treatment heterogeneity). Objective: The present study examines pre- and post-treatment heterogeneity in the association between maternal spanking at child age 3 and subsequent household Child Protective Services (CPS) involvement that were reported by mothers between child ages 3 to 5. Methods: The sample consisted of 2,422 families from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a birth cohort study that oversampled children born to unmarried families. A propensity score stratification analysis procedure examined pre- and post-treatment heterogeneity in the association between spanking and subsequent household CPS involvement. Children were stratified into three strata depending on their propensity for experiencing spanking. Subsequently, the association between spanking and household CPS involvement was examined for each stratum. Results: Disadvantaged socio-economic characteristics, negative psychosocial conditions of the mother, and dysregulated temperament of the child were associated with elevated risk of spanking. The odds of subsequent household CPS involvement increased by 2.4 times (ß = 0.869, p <.01) for children in the stratum with the lowest propensity for experiencing spanking. Conclusions: Results emphasize the importance of promoting alternative disciplinary strategies to families who would be considered low-risk before they may come into contact with the child welfare system.

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Whereas previous research shows that union membership is associated with improved health, static measurements have been used to test dynamic theories linking the two. We construct a novel measure of cumulative unionization, tracking individuals across their entire careers, to examine health consequences in older adulthood. We use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1970-2019) and predict self-rated health, functional limitations, and chronic health conditions in ages 60 to 79 using cumulative unionization measured during respondents' careers. Results from growth models show that unionized careers are associated with .25 SD to .30 SD improvements in health among older adults across all measures. Analyses of life course mechanisms reveal heterogeneous effects across unionization timing, age in older adulthood, and birth cohort. Moreover, subgroup analyses reveal unionization to partially, but not fully, ameliorate disparities based on privileged social positions. Our findings reveal a substantial and novel mechanism driving older adulthood health disparities.

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Purpose: We investigate the impact of a specific macroeconomic shock that occurred as a response to the SARS-COV-2 outbreak, namely the strict lockdown imposed in Spain on the March 14, 2020. Methods: We use fortnightly purchase data relating to over 50,000 households from a supermarket chain in Catalonia from March to June in 2019 and 2020. Using a panel data approach, we analyse the impact of the lockdown on the caloric content, sugar composition, and alcohol content in beverages and food purchases bought before and after lockdown. We corrected our results to take into account the likelihood of stockpiling. Results: The lockdown is related to an increase in unhealthy beverage and food purchases. We find heterogeneous effects across groups of the sample based on cardholder characteristics. Families with children or babies and those in the upper two income quintiles had the unhealthiest changes. As the lockdown went through phases of relaxation, households made better food decisions but maintained unhealthy beverage choices. Conclusions: The very restrictive lockdown negatively impacted the characteristics of food and beverage purchases made by Spaniards. However, we are unsure whether there was substitution to restaurant and bar visits. Additional work to find out whether there were permanent changes in purchasing behaviour after lockdown ended is needed in the future.

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Achieving the ambitious Global Methane Pledge announced in the Glasgow Climate Pact requires collaborative efforts from both the signatory countries and China which serves as the world's largest emitter. Considering the heterogeneity of economic structures within China and the relocation of emissions between regions via the global economic network, it is vital to investigate how China's methane emissions at the subnational level are linked to global final consumption. In this paper, we mapped global methane footprint in China from 2007 to2015 at the subnational level, by nesting China's interprovincial input-output tables into global multiregional input-output accounts and upscaling grid-level methane emission data of the Edgar database to the provincial level. Our results suggested that global methane footprint in China shifted westward, and the United States, European Union, Japan, and Hong Kong were the main drivers of China's local methane emissions. By illustrating the international and interprovincial trade flows of methane emissions, this study demonstrated that southeast coastal provinces were the hotspots for global methane footprint while middle inland provinces were the emission hotspots for China's domestic demands. We also showed how China's methane emissions were distributed through the nested global economic network to different economic agents. Moreover, emission trends of key exporting sectors for China's eight economic zones were detailed discussed. The outcome of this study may be fully supportive for identifying the heterogeneous effects of global methane footprint in China and implicative for interprovincial and international collaborations towards methane emission mitigation.

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This paper assesses whether Brazilian primary health care is worth it in the long-run by estimating the accumulated costs and benefits of its flagship, the Family Health Strategy program (ESF). We employ an alternative strategy centered on years of exposure to the program to incorporate its dynamics. We also account for the program's heterogeneity with respect to the remuneration of ESF health teams and the intensity of coverage across Brazilian municipalities, measure by the number of people assisted by each ESF team, on average. To address heterogeneity in professional earnings, this paper employs, for the first time, a dataset containing the remuneration of professionals allocated to all ESF teams nationwide. The benefits are measured by the avoided deaths and hospitalizations due to causes sensitive to primary care. Results suggest that the net monetary benefit of the program is positive on average, with an optimum time of exposure of approximately 16 years. Significant heterogeneities in cost-benefit results were found since costs outweigh benefits in localities where the coverage is low intensive. On the other hand, the benefits outweigh the costs by 22.5% on average in municipalities with high intensive coverage.

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Retirement has a heterogeneous impact depending on gender and occupation. This study aimed to analyze and evaluate the heterogeneity and potential mechanism of retirement on the biomedical risk factors for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Physical examination data from 2017 to 2020 were extracted from a hospital database in Shanghai. The fluctuation tendency of biomedical risk factor indicators for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases was evaluated by gender and occupation shortly after retirement using fuzzy regression discontinuity design and was analyzed for internal mechanism. Retirement had a significantly negative influence on body weight (ß = -3.943), body mass index (ß = -2.152), and diastolic blood pressure (ß = -5.180) in women working in public institutions or state-owned enterprises, but a positive influence on their blood glucose level (ß = 0.696). Retirement had a significantly positive effect on high-density lipoprotein in men (ß = 0.138), particularly those employed in private enterprises (ß = 0.339). The internal influencing mechanism of retirement showed that the health attention effect after retirement among women in government or public institutions on diastolic blood pressure reduction was better than that before retirement. The body weight, body mass index, and diastolic blood pressure of women in public institutions or state-owned enterprises were reduced at retirement; however, they were exposed to higher risks of elevated blood glucose level. Conversely, high-density lipoprotein level, which is protective against cardiovascular disease, was increased in men at retirement. Retirement has a heterogeneous effect on cardiovascular and metabolic health among people of different genders or occupational experiences. Retirees with low health awareness should be targeted for behavioral interventions and monitored conscientiously by health providers during retirement adaptation.

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Carbon peak and carbon neutralization as a global mission cannot be completed without systematically designed carbon mitigation regulations. In order to achieve the carbon emission reduction as formulated in the Paris Agreement and fulfill the promises made at the United Nations General Assembly, the Chinese government has promulgated various types of regulations to curb carbon emission with the hope of realizing the Porter effect. Selecting low-carbon pilot cities and carbon emission trading schema as the research objects, this study employs a differences-in-differences (DID) model to investigate the effects of carbon mitigation regulations on innovation quality and its heterogeneity. The empirical results reveal that market-based carbon mitigation regulations can significantly achieve the Porter effect and improve innovation quality. Furthermore, the government financial situation and the technical efficiency change have important moderating and mediating effects respectively. It is recommended that a full play of the market be given in China for the Porter effect. The main scientific value of this paper is distinguished the heterogenous effect of different types of environmental regulations, which can enhance the pertinence of environmental regulation.

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This study aims to evaluate the effect of the green finance reform and innovation pilot zone (GFPZ) policy on urban green development. Based on city-level panel data in China from 2012 to 2019, a difference-in-differences model was employed to examine the effects of China's GFPZ policy on the city's green total factor productivity (GTFP). Results show that (1) the GFPZ policy has promoted the GTFP of pilot cities, a conclusion that still holds after performing multiple robustness tests. (2) Compared to non-pilot cities, the GFPZ policy can increase urban GTFP by promoting urban green innovation and reducing urban energy intensity. (3) The GFPZ policy had a more significant impact on mega cities and resource-based cities than on medium and big-sized cities and non-resource-based cities. This study provides new empirical evidence on how green finance influences urban green development and offers China's experience to policymakers worldwide to develop green finance in top-level policy design and practice.

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This study estimates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on life satisfaction and stress and examines whether these effects vary across different sociodemographic groups using a nationally representative sample in South Korea. We estimate the causal effects of COVID-19 on psychological well-being by exploiting regional variation in the spread of the pandemic in South Korea. While the number of confirmed cases was very small in other provinces in the first half of 2020, the coronavirus spread rapidly in Daegu after an outbreak in one church. We employ a difference-in-differences approach that compares changes in people's life satisfaction and stress before-and-after the initial surge of COVID-19 cases in Daegu and other provinces. Our results show that the proportion of people who are dissatisfied with life increased by 2.8-6.5 percentage points more in Daegu than in other provinces after the COVID-19 outbreak. During the same period, the proportion of people who reported feeling stressed increased more in Daegu than in other provinces by 5.8-8.9 percentage points. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on psychological well-being is significantly greater for men, young adults, middle-aged adults, self-employed workers, and middle-income individuals. On the other hand, the proportion of people who report feeling stressed among the highest-educated (a master's degree or higher) and high-income individuals decreased after the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak.

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This paper investigates the effects of obesity, socio-economic variables, and individual-specific factors on work productivity across Italian regions. A dynamic panel data with correlated random effects is used to jointly deal with incidental parameters, endogeneity issues, and functional forms of misspecification. Methodologically, a hierarchical semiparametric Bayesian approach is involved in shrinking high dimensional model classes, and then obtaining a subset of potential predictors affecting outcomes. Monte Carlo designs are addressed to construct exact posterior distributions and then perform accurate forecasts. Cross-sectional Heterogeneity is modelled nonparametrically allowing for correlation between heterogeneous parameters and initial conditions as well as individual-specific regressors. Prevention policies and strategies to handle health and labour market prospects are also discussed.

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BACKGROUND: While several studies have found that lower levels of social integration may lead to a deterioration in the health status of migrants, previous research on the nexus between social integration and health has generally ignored the potential endogeneity of social integration. This paper examines the heterogeneous impact of social integration on the health of rural-to-urban migrants in China by exploiting plausibly exogenous, long-term, geographic variation in dialectal diversity. METHODS: Drawing on nationally representative data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (n = 117,446), we first regressed self-reported health on social integration using ordinary least squares estimation and then used an ordered probit model as a robustness check. Additionally, to rule out the potential endogeneity of social integration, we relied mainly on an instrumental variable approach and used dialectal diversity as a source of exogenous variation for social integration. RESULTS: We found that social integration has a significant positive impact on rural-to-urban migrants' health. We also detected considerable heterogeneity in the effects of social integration across gender, generation, and wage levels: the health status of women, more recent generation migrants, and migrants with wages in the middle of wage distribution are more likely to be affected by social integration. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed the beneficial impact of social integration on migrants' health, which has some important policy implications. Successful migration policies should take the fundamental issue of migrants' social integration into account.

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Pesticides play a significant role in increasing agricultural yields. However, the overuse of chemical pesticides on crops is a major challenge faced by China, which damages human health, threatens food security, and increases production costs. This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between crop insurance and pesticide use. Based on micro-survey data collected from 3410 households, we estimate a control function (CF) approach and find that farmers who purchase crop insurance use 33.30% lower pesticides than those who do not. A series of robustness tests confirm these findings. The results of the moderating effect analysis suggest that rice cultivation training, experience, schooling years, and agricultural laborers can negatively moderate the effect of crop insurance on pesticide use. Furthermore, we also find that the treatment effect of crop insurance is stronger for farmers who are most inclined to purchase crop insurance.

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The empirical conclusions regarding the influence of innovation on green total factor productivity (GTFP) are relatively mixed. Based on China's provincial panel data from 1999 to 2015, this paper uses the number of patent applications to measure regional innovation capacity, and comprehensively examines the linear and nonlinear effects of innovation on GTFP. Our results show that innovation plays a leading role in promoting GTFP growth in China in general. However, two different types of patents, invention patents, and non-invention patents have heterogeneous impacts on China's green growth under the difference of innovation level. Additionally, the relationship between innovation and China's GTFP also differs significantly before and after 2009. A further nonlinear effect analysis based on a panel threshold model reveals that the impact of innovation on GTFP is higher with the rise of human capital, knowledge stock, and financial development. However, only the appropriate environmental regulation stringency is conducive to promoting the influence of innovation on China's green growth. Overall, our findings contribute to a better understanding regarding the impact of innovation on GTFP in China.

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Climate change has occasioned several Earth long-term events, including extreme temperatures. In recent years, Africa was reported as part of the world's regions that experienced extreme temperatures above pre-industrial levels. Despite lower contribution to Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and global warming, Africa remains among the world regions that suffer the most from climate change. However, the impact of climatic factors of temperature and emissions on economic production in Africa has not been broadly investigated, specifically among climate regimes. In this study, we attempt for the first time to understand the heterogeneous impacts of emissions and temperature on income in Africa using panel and time-series techniques on datasets spanning the years 1995-2016. At the global level in Africa, our empirical results reveal that a 1% increase in average temperature reduces income by 1.08%, whereas a 1% rise in CO2 emissions spurs income by 0.23%. The emissions effect result implies that environmental policies specifically designed to reduce CO2 emissions in Africa as a whole may significantly impact production in the long run. Also, the result suggests that a shift from optimal temperature levels to extreme patterns deter economic growth. Despite these revelations, our extended analysis based on climate regimes indicates heterogeneous effects across countries. Considering the Paris agreement on climate, this study suggests that policymakers should emphasise country-specific policies than global climatic policies for sustained CO2 emissions reduction in Africa.

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Differences in economic development, public services, production, and lifestyle between urban and rural areas lead to significant differences in people's attitudes and abilities to cope with environmental pollution. Furthermore, environmental pollution has heterogeneous effects on the health of individuals in urban and rural areas. The article takes the health of left-behind children as an entry point to analyze the impact of haze pollution on the health of urban and rural left-behind children. Using children's survey data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey and the urban and rural raster PM2.5 data from 2000 to 2015, this study applies a logit model to analyze the heterogeneity of the impact of haze pollution on the health of left-behind children. This research finds that, first, the health effects of haze pollution on rural left-behind children are more severe than those on rural children not left behind. Moreover, the same results are not present in the sample of urban left-behind children. Second, the health of left-behind children is more vulnerable to haze pollution than the others when neither parent is at home in rural areas. Third, no evidence proves that haze pollution has more severe health effects on rural children aged 0-6 years with parents away from home. Meanwhile, haze pollution will more easily influence the health status of left-behind children aged 7 years and above in rural areas due to their parents' absence. Fourth, the finding that haze pollution significantly affects the health of left-behind children with parents away from home only applies to the central and western rural samples in China.

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This paper examines a causal relationship between the opening of a city's subway system and its air quality by exploiting daily data on prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2012. Using multi-period difference in differences (DID) method, we find that air quality can be significantly improved following a subway system opening. Robustness tests support the fundamental empirical results. Heterogeneity analysis shows that cities in the eastern and western regions and cities with higher GDP or cities with larger population experience greater and more significant reduction in pollution. We further find that the air pollution continues to decrease with the extension and prolonged operating period of a subway system. Mechanism analysis shows that the resulted air pollution index (API) reduction is due to the substitution effect of taxi.

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Recently, severe haze pollution has not only threatened human health and food security, but also seems to have aggravated the unscientific use of pesticides by rice farmers in rural areas of China. Using original data on haze pollution across China, combined with rural household survey data collected from 2014 to 2018, we conducted a detailed empirical study on the effects of haze pollution on pesticide use by rice farmers based on the theory of risk aversion. The empirical results revealed that haze pollution with higher levels of PM2.5 positively impacted the use of chemical pesticides in rice cultivation. More precisely, with each 100% increase in PM2.5 concentrations, the use of pesticide per mu increased by 7.9%, and the average pesticide cost per mu increased by 2.3%. The results were robust to a series of tests that addressed potential endogeneity concerns, including omitted variable bias, measurement error, and reverse causality. We then examined the heterogeneous effects of haze pollution increases on the use of chemical pesticides and found that for rice farmers without rice insurance, haze pollution has a stronger effect on pesticide use and a weaker effect on pesticide cost. However, for rice farmers with more experience in rice cultivation and small-scale rice planting, the effect of haze pollution on pesticide use and cost is relatively small. Our findings provide important policy implications for pesticide risk management in rural areas of developing countries.

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Background: Most employees in urban China have experienced a heavy commuting burden, which has become an urgent issue that should be solved in the new urbanization strategy process. However, the exploration of the relationship between the commute duration and sickness absence remains scant in China, and no direct discussion has been done to analyze the mechanism linking commute duration and sickness absence. Methods: Using a unique dataset of the 2013 China Matched Employer-Employee Survey, the present study applies a two-level random-intercept Poisson model to explore this association. Results: A long commute is significantly related with increased sickness absence. A longer commute is associated with poorer self-rated health status and a higher degree of psychological depression, and it is also highly related with a decrease in sleeping time. Moreover, an increased commuting duration is associated with lower work effort (working hours). Conclusion: Longer commute duration induces lower productivity through increased sickness absence, and the potential link of commute duration and sickness absence is mainly transmitted through health-related outcomes and work effort.

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