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Up to date, most studies reported that degradation is worsened in the grassland ecosystems of Inner Mongolia and adjacent regions as a result of intensified grazing. This seems to be scientific when considering the total forage or total above-ground biomass as a degradation indicator, but it does not hold true in terms of soil organic carbon density (SOCD). In this study, we quantified the changes of grassland ecosystem carbon stock in Inner Mongolia and adjacent regions from the 1980s to 2000s and identified the major drivers influencing these variations, using the National Grassland Resource Inventory and Soil Survey Dataset in 1980s and the Inventory data during 2002 to 2009 covering 624 sampling plots concerned vegetal traits and edaphic properties across the study region. The result indicated that the above-, below-ground and total vegetation biomass declined from the 1980s to 2000s by ∼ 10 %. However, total forage production increased by 6.72 % when considering livestock intake. SOCD remained stable despite a 67 % increase in grazing intensity. A generalized linear model (GLIM) analysis suggested that an increase in grazing intensity from the 1980s to 2000s could only explain 1.04 % of the total biomass change, while changes in precipitation and temperature explained 17.7 % (p < 0.05) of total vegetation biomass (TVB) change. Meanwhile, SOCD change during 1980s - 2000s could be explained 10.08 % by the soil texture (p < 0.05) and <1.6 % by changes in climate and livestock. This implies that the impacts of climate change on grassland biomass are more significant than those of grazing utilization, and SOCD was resistant to both climate change and intensified grazing. Overall, intensified grazing did not result in significant negative impacts on the grassland carbon stocks in the study region during the 1980s and 2000s. The grassland ecosystems possess a mechanism to adjust their root-shoot ratio, enabling them to maintain resilience against grazing utilization.

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Livestock presence impacts plant biodiversity (species richness) in grassland ecosystems, yet extent and direction of grazing impacts on biodiversity vary greatly across inter-annual periods. In this study, an 8-year (2014-2021) grazing gradient experiment with sheep was conducted in a semi-arid grassland to investigate the impact of grazing under different precipitation variability on biodiversity. The results suggest no direct impact of grazing on species richness in semi-arid Stipa grassland. However, increased grazing indirectly enhanced species richness by elevating community dominance (increasing the sheltering effect of Stipa grass). Importantly, intensified grazing also regulates excessive community biomass resulting from increased inter-annual wetness (SPEI), amplifying the positive influence of annual humidity index on species richness. Lastly, we emphasize that, in water-constrained grassland ecosystems, intra-annual precipitation variability (PCI) was the most crucial factor driving species richness. Therefore, the water-heat synchrony during the growing season may alleviate physiological constraints on plants, significantly enhancing species richness as a result of multifactorial interactions. Our study provides strong evidence for how to regulate grazing intensity to increase biodiversity under future variable climate patterns. We suggest adapting grazing intensity according to local climate variability to achieve grassland biodiversity conservation.

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The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has low anthropogenic carbon emissions and large carbon stock in its ecosystems. As a crucial region in terrestrial ecosystems responding to climate change, an accurate understanding of the distribution characteristics of soil carbon density holds significance in estimating the soil carbon storage capacity in forests and grasslands. It performs a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality goals in China. The distribution characteristics of carbon and carbon density in the surface, middle, and deep soil layers are calculated, and the main influencing factors of soil carbon density changes are analyzed. The carbon density in the surface soil ranges from a minimum of 1.62 kg/m2 to a maximum of 52.93 kg/m2. The coefficient of variation for carbon is 46%, indicating a considerable variability in carbon distribution across different regions. There are substantial disparities, with geological background, land use types, and soil types significantly influencing soil organic carbon density. Alpine meadow soil has the highest carbon density compared with other soil types. The distribution of soil organic carbon density at three different depths is as follows: grassland > bare land > forestland > water area. The grassland systems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have considerable soil carbon sink and storage potential; however, they are confronted with the risk of grassland degradation. The grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau harbor substantial soil carbon sinks and storage potential. However, they are at risk of grassland degradation. It is imperative to enhance grassland management, implement sustainable grazing practices, and prevent the deterioration of the grassland carbon reservoirs to mitigate the exacerbation of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. This highlights the urgency of implementing more studies to uncover the potential of existing grassland ecological engineering projects for carbon sequestration.

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The presence of burrowing mammals can have extensive effects on plants and soils, creating bare soil patches in alpine meadows and potentially altering plant-soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). This study focuses on the plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) to examine the responses of plant-soil C and N to a small burrowing mammal from quadrat scale to plot scale. The density of active burrow entrances in disturbed plots was used as an indicator of the disturbance intensity of plateau pikas. The study found that the below-ground biomass (BGB) and its C and N, as well as soil C and N concentrations were significantly lower in bare soil areas than in vegetated areas and undisturbed plots. This shows that the quadrat scale limited the estimation of the C and N sequestration potential. Therefore, further research on the plot scale found that the disturbance by plateau pika significantly reduced plant biomass and BGB carbon stock. However, plateau pika did not affect soil C and N stocks or ecosystem C and N stocks. These findings suggest the bare soil patches formed by plateau pika caused plant and soil heterogeneity but had a trade-off effect on plant-soil C and N stocks at the plot scale. Nevertheless, moderate disturbance intensity increased the C and N sequestration potential in grassland ecosystems. These results provide a possible way to estimate how disturbance by small burrowing mammals affects C and N cycling in grassland ecosystems while accurately assessing the effects of small burrowing mammal densities on C and N in grassland ecosystems.

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Increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition affects biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, we do not know whether the effects of N on above-ground plant ß-diversity are coupled with changes occurring in the soil seed bank. We conducted a long-term N-addition experiment in a typical steppe and found that above-ground ß-diversity increased and then decreased with increasing N addition, whereas below-ground ß-diversity decreased linearly. This suggests decoupled dynamics of plant communities and their soil seed bank under N enrichment. Species substitution determined above- and below-ground ß-diversity change via an increasing role of deterministic processes with N addition. These effects were mostly driven by differential responses of the above-ground vegetation and the soil seed bank ß-diversities to N-induced changes in environmental heterogeneity, increased soil inorganic N concentrations and soil acidification. Our findings highlight the importance of considering above- and below-ground processes simultaneously for effectively conserving grassland ecosystems under N enrichment.

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The patterns of change in bioclimatic conditions determine the vegetation cover and soil properties along the altitudinal gradient. Together, these factors control the spatial variability of soil respiration (RS) in mountainous areas. The underlying mechanisms, which are poorly understood, shape the resulting surface CO2 flux in these ecosystems. We aimed to investigate the spatial variability of RS and its drivers on the northeastern slope of the Northwest Caucasus Mountains, Russia (1,260-2,480 m a.s.l.), in mixed, fir, and deciduous forests, as well as subalpine and alpine meadows. RS was measured simultaneously in each ecosystem at 12 randomly distributed points using the closed static chamber technique. After the measurements, topsoil samples (0-10 cm) were collected under each chamber (n = 60). Several soil physicochemical, microbial, and vegetation indices were assessed as potential drivers of RS. We tested two hypotheses: (i) the spatial variability of RS is higher in forests than in grasslands; and (ii) the spatial variability of RS in forests is mainly due to soil microbial activity, whereas in grasslands, it is mainly due to vegetation characteristics. Unexpectedly, RS variability was lower in forests than in grasslands, ranging from 1.3-6.5 versus 3.4-12.7 µmol CO2 m-1 s-1, respectively. Spatial variability of RS in forests was related to microbial functioning through chitinase activity (50% explained variance), whereas in grasslands it was related to vegetation structure, namely graminoid abundance (27% explained variance). Apparently, the chitinase dependence of RS variability in forests may be related to soil N limitation. This was confirmed by low N content and high C:N ratio compared to grassland soils. The greater sensitivity of grassland RS to vegetation structure may be related to the essential root C allocation for some grasses. Thus, the first hypothesis concerning the higher spatial variability of RS in forests than in grasslands was not confirmed, whereas the second hypothesis concerning the crucial role of soil microorganisms in forests and vegetation in grasslands as drivers of RS spatial variability was confirmed.

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Elucidating the effects underlying soil organic carbon (SOC) variation is imperative for ascertaining the potential drivers of mitigating climate change. However, the drivers of variations in various SOC fractions (e.g., macroaggregate C, microaggregate C, and silt and clay C) at different soil depths remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects and relative contributions of climatic, plant, edaphic, and microbial factors on soil aggregate C between the topsoil (0-10 cm) and subsoil (20-30 cm) across alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. Results showed that the C content of macroaggregates, microaggregates, and silt and clay fractions in the topsoil was 128.6 %, 49.6 %, and 242.4 % higher than that in the subsoil, respectively. Overall, plant properties were the most determinants controlling soil macroaggregate, microaggregate, and silt + clay associated C for both two soil depths, accounting for 32.2 %, 37.4 %, and 38.8 % of the variation, respectively, followed by edaphic, microbial, and climatic factors. The aggregate C of both soil depths was significantly related with the climatic, plant, edaphic, and microbial factors, but the relative importance of these determinants was soil-depth dependent. Specifically, the effects of plant root biomass and microbial (e.g., microbial biomass carbon and fungal diversity index) factors on each aggregate C weakened with soil depth, but the importance of edaphic factors (e.g., clay content, pH, and bulk density) strengthened with soil depth, except for the weakened effect of bulk density on the microaggregate C. And the effects of climatic factor (e.g., mean annual precipitation) on macroaggregate and microaggregate C increased with soil depth. Our results highlight differential drivers and their impacts on soil aggregate C between the topsoil and subsoil, which benefits biogeochemical models for more accurately forecasting soil C dynamics and its feedbacks to environmental changes.

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Symbiotic diazotrophs form associations with legumes and substantially fix nitrogen into soils. However, grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are dominated by non-legume plants, such as Kobresia tibetica. Herein, we investigated the diazotrophic abundance, composition, and community structure in the soils and roots of three plants, non-legume K. tibetica and Kobresia humilis and the legume Oxytropis ochrocephala, using molecular methods targeting nifH gene. Diazotrophs were abundantly observed in both bulk and rhizosphere soils, as well as in roots of all three plants, but their abundance varied with plant type and soil. In both bulk and rhizosphere soils, K. tibetica showed the highest diazotroph abundance, whereas K. humilis had the lowest. In roots, O. ochrocephala and K. humilis showed the highest and the lowest diazotroph abundance, respectively. The bulk and rhizosphere soils exhibited similar diazotrophic community structure in both O. ochrocephala and K. tibetica, but were substantially distinct from the roots in both plants. Interestingly, the root diazotrophic community structures in legume O. ochrocephala and non-legume K. tibetica were similar. Diazotrophs in bulk and rhizosphere soils were more diverse than those in the roots of three plants. Rhizosphere soils of K. humilis were dominated by Actinobacteria, while rhizosphere soils and roots of K. tibetica were dominated by Verrumicrobia and Proteobacteria. The O. ochrocephala root diazotrophs were dominated by Alphaproteobacteria. These findings indicate that free-living diazotrophs abundantly and diversely occur in grassland soils dominated by non-legume plants, suggesting that these diazotrophs may play important roles in fixing nitrogen into soils on the plateau.

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Aridity is increasing in several regions because of global climate change, which strongly affects the soil microbial community. The soil pqqC-harboring bacterial community plays a vital role in soil P cycling and P availability. However, the effect of shifts in aridity on the pqqC community is largely unknown. Here, based on high-throughput sequencing technology, we investigated the response patterns of the diversity, co-occurrence networks, and assembly mechanisms of the soil pqqC communities along a natural aridity gradient in adjacent pairs of natural and disturbed grasslands in Inner Mongolia, China. The results showed that the α-diversity of the pqqC community first increased and then decreased with increasing aridity in the natural grassland, while it linearly increased as aridity increased in the disturbed grassland. The pqqC community dissimilarity significantly increased with increased aridity, exhibiting a steeper change rate in the disturbed grassland than in the natural grassland. Increased aridity altered the pqqC community composition, leading to increases in the relative abundance of Actinobacteria but decreases in Proteobacteria. The composition and structure of the pqqC community showed significant differences between natural and disturbed grasslands. In addition, the network analysis revealed that aridity improved the interactions among pqqC taxa and promoted the interspecific competition of pqqC microorganisms. The pqqC community assembly was primarily governed by stochastic processes, and the relative contribution of stochastic processes increased with increasing aridity. Furthermore, disturbances could affect pqqC-harboring bacterial interactions and assembly processes. Overall, our findings fill an important knowledge gap in our understanding of the influence of aridity on the diversity and assembly mechanism of the soil pqqC community in grassland ecosystems, and this work is thus conducive to predicting the pqqC community and its ecological services in response to future climate change.

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Soil eutrophication from atmospheric deposition and fertilization threatens biodiversity and the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Increases in soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) content can alter the biomass and structure of plant communities in grassland ecosystems; however, the impact of these changes on plant-pollinator interactions is not yet clear. In this study, we tested how changes in flowering plant diversity and composition due to N and P enrichment affected pollinator communities and pollination interactions. Our experiments, conducted in a Tibetan alpine grassland, included four fertilization treatments: N (10 g N m-2 year-1), P (5 g P m-2 year-1), a combination of N and P (N + P), and control. We found that changes in flowering plant composition and diversity under the N and P treatments did not alter the pollinator richness or abundance. The N and P treatments also had limited effects on the plant-pollinator interactions, including the interaction numbers, visit numbers, plant and pollinator species dissimilarity, plant-pollinator interaction dissimilarity, average number of pollinator species attracted by each plant species (vulnerability), and average number of plant species visited by each pollinator species (generality). However, the N + P treatment increased the species and interaction dissimilarity in flowering plant and pollinator communities and decreased the generality in plant-pollinator interactions. These data highlight that changes in flowering plants caused by N + P enrichment alter pollination interactions between flowering plants and pollinators. Owing to changes in flowering plant communities, the plant-pollinator interactions could be sensitive to the changing environment in alpine regions.

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Prairie dogs (Cynomys sp.) are considered keystone species and ecosystem engineers for their grazing and burrowing activities (summarized here as disturbances). As climate changes and its variability increases, the mechanisms underlying organisms' interactions with their habitat will likely shift. Understanding the mediating role of prairie dog disturbance on vegetation structure, and its interaction with environmental conditions through time, will increase knowledge on the risks and vulnerability of grasslands.Here, we compared how plant taxonomical diversity, functional diversity metrics, and community-weighted trait means (CWM) respond to prairie dog C. mexicanus disturbance across grassland types and seasons (dry and wet) in a priority conservation semiarid grassland of Northeast Mexico.Our findings suggest that functional metrics and CWM analyses responded to interactions between prairie dog disturbance, grassland type and season, whilst species diversity and cover measures were less sensitive to the role of prairie dog disturbance. We found weak evidence that prairie dog disturbance has a negative effect on vegetation structure, except for minimal effects on C4 and graminoid cover, but which depended mainly on season. Grassland type and season explained most of the effects on plant functional and taxonomic diversity as well as CWM traits. Furthermore, we found that leaf area as well as forb and annual cover increased during the wet season, independent of prairie dog disturbance.Our results provide evidence that grassland type and season have a stronger effect than prairie dog disturbance on the vegetation of this short-grass, water-restricted grassland ecosystem. We argue that focusing solely on disturbance and grazing effects is misleading, and attention is needed on the relationships between vegetation and environmental conditions which will be critical to understand semiarid grassland dynamics under future climate change conditions in the region.

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Human-induced nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) enrichment have profound effects on grassland net primary production (NPP) and species richness. However, a comprehensive understanding of the relative contribution of N vs. P addition and their interaction on grassland NPP increase and species loss remains elusive. We compiled data from 80 field manipulative studies and conducted a meta-analysis (2107 observations world-wide) to evaluate the individual and combined effects of N and P addition on grassland NPP and species richness. We found that both N addition and P addition significantly enhanced grassland above-ground NPP (ANPP; 33.2% and 14.2%, respectively), but did not affect total NPP, below-ground NPP (BNPP), and species evenness. Species richness significantly decreased with N addition (11.7%; by decreasing forbs) probably due to strong decreased soil pH, but not with P addition. The combined effects of N and P addition were generally stronger than the individual effects of N or P addition, and we found the synergistic effects on ANPP, and additive effects on total NPP, BNPP, species richness, and evenness within the combinations of N and P addition. In addition, N and P addition effects were strongly affected by moderator variables (e.g. climate and fertilization type, duration and amount of fertilizer addition). These results demonstrate a higher relative contribution of N than P addition to grassland NPP increase and species loss, although the effects varied across climate and fertilization types. The existing data also reveals that more long-term (≥5 years) experimental studies that combine N and P and test multifactor effects in different climate zones (particularly in boreal grasslands) are needed to provide a more solid basis for forecasting grassland community response and C sequestration response to nutrient enrichment at the global scale.

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The frequency and severity of extreme weather events are increasing and expected to increase more in the future, together with global change. However, how extreme events and global change factors interactively influence community structures and ecosystem processes is largely unknown. Here, we investigated the responses of the temporal stability and resilience of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of an alpine meadow to an extreme flooding event under different treatments of experimental drought and clipping. We found that ecosystems that were exposed to drought treatments for 3 years significantly decreased the temporal stability of community productivity but increased resilience to flooding, whereas their resistance to or recovery from flooding did not change. Neither clipping nor its interaction with drought altered the responses of these community stability metrics to flooding. Drought treatments significantly decreased plant species richness and asynchrony and dominant species stability, leading to a decrease in temporal stability and an increase in resilience in response to the extreme flooding event. The study also revealed that the change in species asynchrony was the dominant impact pathway determining the responses of resilience and temporal stability to flooding. Our results highlight that alpine grassland that experiences a multiyear drought may aggravate the instability of community productivity to extreme climatic events by reducing species asynchrony.

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In this study, according to the classification of biological "classes" and the different trophic levels of the food web, the distribution characteristics, bioaccumulation of heavy metals (HMs) and their trophic transfer in the food web of typical grassland ecosystems were studied and predicted. The results indicated that the accumulation of toxic As was the highest in small mammals and reptiles, Cu was the highest in insects, and the micronutrient Zn in large mammals was higher than that in plants. The metal transfer factor (MTF) by plants at the first trophic level showed that Leymus chinensis had the best ability to absorb HMs from soil. The trophic transfer factor (TTF) of HMs in the second-trophic level insects, birds and some mammals were Zn > As > Cu > Ni > Pb > Co = Cr > Mn > V, in which, biomagnified on Zn, As, and Cu. Organisms at the third trophic level including birds, reptiles and some mammals had the strongest accumulation ability for Pb, V and As, and all were biomagnified. The biomagnification on As and Co of the fourth trophic level Siberian weasel was obviously higher than that of Dione's rat-snake, which had significant biomagnification effect on As by preying on Steppe toad-headed agama. The study showed that the bioaccumulation levels of HMs in organisms at different trophic levels varied significantly with species, prey, and organ type, but they all showed strong bioaccumulation capacity to toxic As, which indicated that As could produce certain toxic effects on animals in the food web through trophic transfer. In addition, organisms at low-trophic levels were more likely to biomagnify Zn, while organisms at high-trophic levels were more likely to biodilute Pb.

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In recent decades, climate change and human activities have severely affected grasslands in Central Asia. Grassland regulation and sustainability in this region require an accurate assessment of the effects of these two factors on grasslands. Based on the abrupt change analysis, linear regression analysis and net primary productivity (NPP), the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland ecosystems in Central Asia during 1982-2015 were studied. Further, the potential NPP (NPPP) was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and the human-induced NPP (NPPH), which was the difference between NPPP and actual NPP, were used to differentiate the effects of climate change and human activities on the grassland ecosystems, respectively. The grassland NPP showed a slight upward trend during 1982-2015, while two obvious decreasing periods were found before and after the mutation year 1999. Additionally, the main driving forces of the grassland NPP variation for the two periods were different. During 1982-1999, climate change was the main factor controlling grassland NPP increase or decrease, and 84.7% of grasslands experienced NPP reduction, while the regions experiencing an increase represented only 15.3% of the total area. During 1999-2015, the areas of increasing and decreasing grassland NPP represented 41.6% and 58.4% of the total area, respectively. After 1999, human activities became the main driving force of the NPP reduction, whereas climate change facilitated grassland restoration. The five Central Asian countries showed widely divergent relative impacts of climate change and human activities on NPP changes. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, anthropogenic decreases in grassland NPP intensified during 1982-2015, while the negative anthropogenic effects on grassland NPP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan moderated. Further analysis identified precipitation as the major climatic factor affecting grassland variation in most areas of Central Asia and overgrazing as the main form of human activity accelerating grassland degradation. This study improves the understanding of the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on grasslands in Central Asia.

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Net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon use efficiency (CUE) are common ecological indicators for assessing the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, despite their widespread use, considerable uncertainties exist toward the response patterns of NPP and CUE to climate variability along an aridity gradient, especially for grassland ecosystems. The aridity index (AI) was calculated in this study to specify arid-humid zones across the global grassland ecosystem. The dynamics of grassland NPP, CUE, and their dependence on climate under different AI levels from 2000 to 2013 were investigated. Results showed that the NPP and CUE of grasslands demonstrated a slightly increasing trend with regional increasing precipitation in most AI zones, except for arid regions (AR) from 2000 to 2013. The NPP and CUE of grasslands exhibited a remarkable spatial heterogeneity in different AI zones. High NPP values mainly occurred in the dry and sub-humid (DSH) and humid (HU) regions of Southern Hemisphere with warm and wet climate. High CUE values were mostly found in the HU of the Northern Hemisphere with cold and wet climate. In addition, low NPP and CUE values were observed in most parts of AR and semi-AR (SAR) with hot and dry climate. Overall, the NPP and CUE of grasslands were significantly affected by precipitation at the global scale. Specifically, grassland NPP was positively correlated with the mean annual precipitation (MAP) in SAR and AR, but negatively related with the MAP in the HU region. The positive correlation between NPP and mean annual temperature (MAT) was found only for HU regions. Grassland CUE indicated a positive relation with MAP, but a negative relation was observed with MAT in all AI zones. The correlation coefficients between CUE and MAP decreased from AR to HU regions. This finding indicated that grassland CUE was highly sensitive to precipitation in dry areas, but this relationship weakened in HU ecosystems.

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The structural complexity of vegetation can have profound effects on the hunting efficiency of predators, thereby affecting their intake rate of prey. While studies have shown that vegetation complexity can play an important role in managing unwanted impacts of predators, it is less clear how structural complexity of invasive vegetation affects the vulnerability of terrestrial prey. Short nonnative pasture species bred for agricultural production, for example, are highly invasive and pervade grassland ecosystems worldwide. They generally have low structural complexity compared with taller native vegetation they often displace. We conducted controlled experiments to test whether nonnative pastures expose fauna to greater predation risk. Survival of invertebrates (tethered locusts) subject to predation by invasive mammalian insectivores (European hedgehogs) in nonnative pasture (0.10 per 24 h; 95% CI, 0.08-0.13) was less than one-half that in structurally complex native perennial tussock (bunch) grass (0.24; 95% binomial CI, 0.18-0.31). A significant positive relationship was apparent between structural complexity (grass dry stem density) surrounding each locust and their survival. In a second experiment, survival of locusts placed solely in tussock increased with decreasing locust density in tussock, presumably reflecting fewer resource-rich patches on which predators could focus. These results demonstrate that invasion by structurally simple nonnative vegetation exposes prey to greater risk of predation. This is concerning from a global nature conservation perspective given that conversion of nearly one-half of the world's temperate grasslands to agriculture includes a range of invasive, structurally simple, nonnative, plant species. Minimizing invasion and maintaining and restoring complex habitat structure may be a useful conservation option for reducing unwanted predation.

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While evidence mounts that indigenous burning has a significant role in shaping pyrodiversity, the processes explaining its variation across local and external biophysical systems remain limited. This is especially the case with studies of climate-fire interactions, which only recognize an effect of humans on the fire regime when they act independently of climate. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that an anthropogenic fire regime (fire incidence, size and extent) does not covary with climate. In the lightning regime, positive El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) values increase lightning fire incidence, whereas La Niña (and associated increases in prior rainfall) increase fire size. ENSO has the opposite effect in the Martu regime, decreasing ignitions in El Niño conditions without affecting fire size. Anthropogenic ignition rates covary positively with high antecedent rainfall, whereas fire size varies only with high temperatures and unpredictable winds, which may reduce control over fire spread. However, total area burned is similarly predicted by antecedent rainfall in both regimes, but is driven by increases in fire size in the lightning regime, and fire number in the anthropogenic regime. We conclude that anthropogenic regimes covary with climatic variation, but detecting the human-climate-fire interaction requires multiple measures of both fire regime and climate.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

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