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INTRODUCTION: Metastases increase the risk of fracture when affecting the femur. Consequently, clinicians need to know if the patient's femur can withstand the stress of daily activities. The current tools used in clinics are not sufficiently precise. A new method, the CT-scan-based finite element analysis, gives good predictive results. However, none of the existing models were tested for reproducibility. This is a critical issue to address in order to apply the technique on a large cohort around the world to help evaluate bone metastatic fracture risk in patients. The aim of this study is then to evaluate 1) the reproducibility 2) the transposition of the reproduced model to another dataset and 3) the global sensitivity of one of the most promising models of the literature (original model). METHODS: The model was reproduced based on the paper describing it and discussion with authors to avoid reproduction errors. The reproducibility was evaluated by comparing the results given in the original model by the original first team (Leuven, Belgium) and the reproduced model made by another team (Lyon, France) on the same dataset of CT-scans of ex vivo femurs. The transposition of the model was evaluated by comparing the results of the reproduced model on two different datasets. The global sensitivity analysis was done by using the Morris method and evaluates the influence of the density calibration coefficient, the segmentation, the orientations and the length of the femur. RESULTS: The original and reproduced models are highly correlated (r2 = 0.95), even though the reproduced model gives systematically higher failure loads. When using the reproduced model on another dataset, predictions are less accurate (r2 with the experimental failure load decreases, errors increase). The global sensitivity analysis showed high influence of the density calibration coefficient (mean variation of failure load of 84 %) and non-negligible influence of the segmentation, orientation and length of the femur (mean variation of failure load between 7 and 10 %). CONCLUSION: This study showed that, although being validated, the reproduced model underperformed when using another dataset. The difference in performance depending on the dataset is commonly the cause of overfitting when creating the model. However, the dataset used in the original paper (Sas et al., 2020a) and the Leuven's dataset gave similar performance, which indicates a lesser probability for the overfitting cause. Also, the model is highly sensitive to density parameters and automation of measurement may minimize the uncertainty on failure load. An uncertainty propagation analysis would give the actual precision of such model and improve our understanding of its behavior and is part of future work.

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Behavioral models have garnered significant interest in the realm of high-frequency electronics. Their primary function is to substitute costly computational tools, notably electromagnetic (EM) analysis, for repetitive evaluations of the structure under consideration. These evaluations are often necessary for tasks like parameter tuning, statistical analysis, or multi-criterial design. However, constructing reliable surrogate models faces several challenges, including the nonlinearity of circuit characteristics and the vast size of the parameter space, encompassing both dimensionality and design variable ranges. Additionally, ensuring the validity of the model across broad geometry/material parameter and frequency ranges is crucial for its utility in design. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an innovative approach to cost-effective and dependable behavioral modeling of microwave passives. Central to our method is a fast global sensitivity analysis (FGSA) procedure, which is devised to identify correlations between design parameters and quantify their impacts on circuit characteristics. The most significant directions identified through FGSA are utilized to establish a reduced-dimensionality domain. Within this domain, the model may be constructed using a limited amount of data samples while capturing a significant portion of the circuit response variability, rendering it suitable for design purposes. The outstanding predictive capability of the proposed model, its superiority over traditional techniques, and its readiness for design applications are demonstrated through the analysis of three microstrip circuits of diverse characteristics.

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The advanced age population may be susceptible to an increased risk of adverse effects due to increased drug exposure after oral dosing. Factors such as high-interindividual variability and lack of data has led to poor characterization of absorption's role in pharmacokinetic changes in this population. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are increasingly being used during the drug development process, as their unique qualities are advantageous in atypical scenarios such as drug-drug interactions or special populations such as older people. Along with relying on various sources of data, auxiliary tools including parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis techniques are employed to support model development and other applications. However, sensitivity analyses have mostly been limited to localized techniques in the majority of reported PBPK models using them. This is disadvantageous, since local sensitivity analyses are unsuitable for risk analysis, which require assessment of parametric interactions and proper coverage of the input space to better estimate and subsequently mitigate the effects of the phenomenon of interest. For this reason, this study seeks to integrate a global sensitivity analysis screening method with PBPK models based in PK-Sim® to characterize the consequences of potential changes in absorption that are often associated with advanced age. The Elementary Effects (Morris) method and visualization of the results are implemented in R and three model drugs representing Biopharmaceutical Classification System classes I-III that are expected to exhibit some sensitivity to three age-associated hypotheses were successfully tested.

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Mismanagement of the nitrogen (N) fertilization in agriculture leads to low N use efficiency (NUE) and therefore pollution of waters and atmosphere due to NO3- leaching, and N2O and NH3 emissions. The use of N simulation models of the soil-plant system can help improve the N fertilizer management increasing NUE and decreasing N pollution issues. However, many N simulation models lack balance between complexity and uncertainty with the result that they are not applied in actual practice. The NITIRSOIL is a one-dimensional transient-state model with a monthly time step that aims at addressing this lack in the estimation of, mainly, dry matter yield (DMY), crop N uptake (Nupt), soil mineral N (Nmin), and NO3- leaching in agricultural fields. According to its global sensitivity analysis for horticulture, the NITIRSOIL simulations of the aforementioned outputs mostly depend on the critical N dilution curve, harvest index, dry matter fraction, potential fresh yield and nitrification coefficients. According to its validation for 35 nitrogen fertilization trials with 11 vegetables under semi-arid Mediterranean climate in Eastern Spain, the NITIRSOIL presents indices of agreement between 0.87 and 0.97 for the prediction of total dry matter, DMY, Nupt, NO3- leaching and soil Nmin at crop season end. Therefore, the NITIRSOIL model can be used in actual practice to improve the sustainability of the N management in, particularly horticulture, due to the balance it features between complexity and prediction uncertainty. For this aim, the NITRISOIL can be used either on its own, or in combination with "Nmin" on-site N fertilization recommendation methods, or even could be implemented as the calculation core of decision support systems.

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We propose a compartmental model for investigating smoking dynamics in an Italian region (Tuscany). Calibrating the model on local data from 1993 to 2019, we estimate the probabilities of starting and quitting smoking and the probability of smoking relapse. Then, we forecast the evolution of smoking prevalence until 2043 and assess the impact on mortality in terms of attributable deaths. We introduce elements of novelty with respect to previous studies in this field, including a formal definition of the equations governing the model dynamics and a flexible modelling of smoking probabilities based on cubic regression splines. We estimate model parameters by defining a two-step procedure and quantify the sampling variability via a parametric bootstrap. We propose the implementation of cross-validation on a rolling basis and variance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis to check the robustness of the results and support our findings. Our results suggest a decrease in smoking prevalence among males and stability among females, over the next two decades. We estimate that, in 2023, 18% of deaths among males and 8% among females are due to smoking. We test the use of the model in assessing the impact on smoking prevalence and mortality of different tobacco control policies, including the tobacco-free generation ban recently introduced in New Zealand.

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BACKGROUND: Many European countries experienced outbreaks of mpox in 2022, and there was an mpox outbreak in 2023 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. There were many apparent differences between these outbreaks and previous outbreaks of mpox; the recent outbreaks were observed in men who have sex with men after sexual encounters at common events, whereas earlier outbreaks were observed in a wider population with no identifiable link to sexual contacts. These apparent differences meant that data from previous outbreaks could not reliably be used to parametrise infectious disease models during the 2022 and 2023 mpox outbreaks, and modelling efforts were hampered by uncertainty around key transmission and immunity parameters. METHODS: We developed a stochastic, discrete-time metapopulation model for mpox that allowed for sexual and non-sexual transmission and the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, specifically contact tracing and pre- and post-exposure vaccinations. We calibrated the model to case data from Berlin and used Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that mpox transmission is especially sensitive to. We also briefly analysed the sensitivity of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to various efficacy parameters. RESULTS: We found that variance in the transmission probabilities due to both sexual and non-sexual transmission had a large effect on mpox transmission in the model, as did the level of immunity to mpox conferred by a previous smallpox vaccination. Furthermore, variance in the number of pre-exposure vaccinations offered was the dominant contributor to variance in mpox dynamics in men who have sex with men. If pre-exposure vaccinations were not available, both the accuracy and timeliness of contact tracing had a large impact on mpox transmission in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are valuable for guiding epidemiological studies for parameter ascertainment and identifying key factors for success of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

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Sensitivity analysis answers questions about the influence of parameters on the simulation results and plays a significant role in the development of environmental models by helping to understand the relations within the model and test its adequacy. Comparison of various sensitivity analysis approaches is often also quite useful because different methods employ different measures for ranking model parameters and their unconformities and disagreements provide additional information on model behavior. The visual representation of numerical results is crucial for their correct interpretation, and at first sight, the visualizations for the sensitivity analysis should be quite universal because in most cases an outcome of sensitivity analysis is the same: a set of indices measuring the significance of model inputs for the selected output. Surprisingly, it is not so straightforward. This paper compares visualization types suitable for the graphical representation of the sensitivity indices and demonstrates their benefits and caveats in different cases.

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Ionic liquids (ILs) are highly effective for capturing carbon dioxide (CO2). The prediction of CO2 solubility in ILs is crucial for optimizing CO2 capture processes. This study investigates the use of deep learning models for CO2 solubility prediction in ILs with a comprehensive dataset of 10,116 CO2 solubility data in 164 kinds of ILs under different temperature and pressure conditions. Deep neural network models, including Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), were developed to predict CO2 solubility in ILs. The ANN and LSTM models demonstrated robust test accuracy in predicting CO2 solubility, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.986 and 0.985, respectively. Both model's computational efficiency and cost were investigated, and the ANN model achieved reliable accuracy with a significantly lower computational time (approximately 30 times faster) than the LSTM model. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) was performed to assess the influence of process parameters and associated functional groups on CO2 solubility. The sensitivity analysis results provided insights into the relative importance of input attributes on output variables (CO2 solubility) in ILs. The findings highlight the significant potential of deep learning models for streamlining the screening process of ILs for CO2 capture applications.

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This research introduces a novel global sensitivity analysis (GSA) framework for agent-based models (ABMs) that explicitly handles their distinctive features, such as multi-level structure and temporal dynamics. The framework uses Grassmannian diffusion maps to reduce output data dimensionality and sparse polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to compute sensitivity indices for stochastic input parameters. To demonstrate the versatility of the proposed GSA method, we applied it to a non-linear system dynamics model and epidemiological and economic ABMs, depicting different dynamics. Unlike traditional GSA approaches, the proposed method enables a more general estimation of parametric sensitivities spanning from the micro level (individual agents) to the macro level (entire population). The new framework encourages the use of manifold-based techniques in uncertainty quantification, enhances understanding of complex spatio-temporal processes, and equips ABM practitioners with robust tools for detailed model analysis. This empowers them to make more informed decisions when developing, fine-tuning, and verifying models, thereby advancing the field and improving routine practice for GSA in ABMs.

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Investigating the effects of spatial scales on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the social vulnerability index (SoVI) model output is critical, especially for spatial scales finer than the census block group or census block. This study applied the intelligent dasymetric mapping approach to spatially disaggregate the census tract scale SoVI model into a 300-m grids resolution SoVI map in Davidson County, Nashville. Then, uncertainty analysis and variance-based global sensitivity analysis were conducted on two scales of SoVI models: (a) census tract scale; (b) 300-m grids scale. Uncertainty analysis results indicate that the SoVI model has better confidence in identifying places with a higher socially vulnerable status, no matter the spatial scales in which the SoVI is constructed. However, the spatial scale of SoVI does affect the sensitivity analysis results. The sensitivity analysis suggests that for census tract scale SoVI, the indicator transformation and weighting scheme are the two major uncertainty contributors in the SoVI index modeling stages. While for finer spatial scales like the 300-m grid's resolution, the weighting scheme becomes the uttermost dominant uncertainty contributor, absorbing uncertainty contributions from indicator transformation.

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BACKGROUND: In the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), new vector-control tools are needed to target mosquitoes that bite outside during the daytime and night-time to advance malaria elimination. METHODS: We conducted systematic literature searches to generate a bionomic dataset of the main malaria vectors in the GMS, including human blood index (HBI), parity proportion, sac proportion (proportion with uncontracted ovary sacs, indicating the amount of time until they returned to host seeking after oviposition) and the resting period duration. We then performed global sensitivity analyses to assess the influence of bionomics and intervention characteristics on vectorial capacity. RESULTS: Our review showed that Anopheles minimus, An. sinensis, An. maculatus and An. sundaicus display opportunistic blood-feeding behaviour, while An. dirus is more anthropophilic. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that environmental, climatic and sampling factors influence the proportion of parous mosquitoes, and resting duration varies seasonally. Sensitivity analysis highlighted HBI and parity proportion as the most influential bionomic parameters, followed by resting duration. Killing before feeding is always a desirable characteristic across all settings in the GMS. Disarming is also a desirable characteristic in settings with a low HBI. Repelling is only an effective strategy in settings with a low HBI and low parity proportion. Killing after feeding is only a desirable characteristic if the HBI and parity proportions in the setting are high. CONCLUSIONS: Although in general adopting tools that kill before feeding would have the largest community-level effect on reducing outdoor transmission, other modes of action can be effective. Current tools in development which target outdoor biting mosquitoes should be implemented in different settings dependent on their characteristics.

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High-performance fibre-reinforced concrete (HPFRC), a type of cementitious composite material known for its exceptional mechanical performance, has widespread applications in structures exposed to severe dynamic loading conditions. However, understanding nonlinear HPFRC fracture behaviour, particularly under high strain rates, remains challenging given the complexities of assessment procedures and cost-intensive nature of experiments. This study presents an interpretable framework for modelling and analysing HPFRC fracture strength at high strain rates. A wide range of machine learning methods, including ensemble techniques, were employed to capture multivariate effects of eight essential input features (e.g., mortar compressive strength, fibre physical and mechanical properties, cross-sectional area, and strain rate) on fracture strength response. To assess the derived models, a novel evaluation procedure was proposed involving a data-based analysis, employing established metrics (i.e., coefficient of determination, root mean squared error, and mean absolute error via K-fold cross-validation) and a domain experts-involved evaluation utilising global sensitivity analysis to discern first-order and higher-order interactions among input factors. The proposed approach efficiently yielded both quantitative and qualitative insights into crucial input factors governing HPFRC fracture strength with limited experimental data. The obtained findings highlight the significance of multivariate effects, such as the interaction between strain rate and fibre tensile strength, and between fibre volume and fibre diameter, on fracture behaviour. The proposed interpretable framework aims to provide a powerful tool for proactive material failure analysis by understanding fracture behaviour and identifying potential weak and strong interactions among input factors of HPFRC-based samples. Moreover, the utilisation of the proposed approach enables researchers and civil engineers to efficiently focus on the most critical input parameters during the early design stage and ensuring the structural integrity and safety of HPFRC-based constructions.

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Specific flood volume is an important criterion for evaluating the performance of sewer networks. Currently, mechanistic models - MCMs (e.g., SWMM) are usually used for its prediction, but they require the collection of detailed information about the characteristics of the catchment and sewer network, which can be difficult to obtain, and the process of model calibration is a complex task. This paper presents a methodology for developing simulators to predict specific flood volume using machine learning methods (DNN - Deep Neural Network, GAM - Generalized Additive Model). The results of Sobol index calculations using the GSA method were used to select the ML model as an alternative to the MCM model. It was shown that the DNN model can be used for flood prediction, for which high agreement was obtained between the results of GSA calculations for rainfall data, catchment and sewer network characteristics, and calibrated SWMM parameters describing land use and sewer retention. Regression relationships (polynomials and exponential functions) were determined between Sobol indices (retention depth of impervious area, correction factor of impervious area, Manning's roughness coefficient of sewers) and sewer network characteristics (unit density of sewers, retention factor - the downstream and upstream of retention ratio) obtaining R2 = 0. 55-0.78. The feasibility of predicting sewer network flooding and modernization with the DNN model using a limited range of input data compared to the SWMM was shown. The developed model can be applied to the management of urban catchments with limited access to data and at the stage of urban planning.

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Identifying important parameters in crop models is critical for model application. This study conducted a sensitivity analysis of 23 selected parameters of the advanced rice model ORYZA-N using the Extended FAST method. The sensitivity analysis was applied for three rice types (single-season rice in cold regions and double-season rice (early rice and late rice) in subtropical regions) and two irrigation regimes (traditional flood irrigation (TFI) and shallow-wet irrigation (SWI)). This study analyzed the parameter sensitivity of six crop growth outputs at four developmental stages and yields. Furthermore, we compared the variation in parameter sensitivity on model outputs between TFI and SWI scenarios for single-season rice, early rice, and late rice. Results indicated that parameters RGRLMX, FRPAR, and FLV0.5 significantly affected all model outputs and varied over developmental stages. Water stress in paddy fields caused by water-saving irrigation had more pronounced effects on single-season rice than on double-season rice.

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Vacuum membrane distillation (VMD) has attracted increasing interest for various applications besides seawater desalination. Experimental testing of membrane technologies such as VMD on a pilot or large scale can be laborious and costly. Machine learning techniques can be a valuable tool for predicting membrane performance on such scales. In this work, a novel hybrid model was developed based on incorporating a spotted hyena optimizer (SHO) with support vector machine (SVR) to predict the flux pressure in VMD. The SVR-SHO hybrid model was validated with experimental data and benchmarked against other machine learning tools such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), classical SVR, and multiple linear regression (MLR). The results show that the SVR-SHO predicted flux pressure with high accuracy with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.94. However, other models showed a lower prediction accuracy than SVR-SHO with R-values ranging from 0.801 to 0.902. Global sensitivity analysis was applied to interpret the obtained result, revealing that feed temperature was the most influential operating parameter on flux, with a relative importance score of 52.71 compared to 17.69, 17.16, and 14.44 for feed flowrate, vacuum pressure intensity, and feed concentration, respectively.

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For the purpose of validation and identification of mechanical systems, measurements are indispensable. However, they require knowledge of the inherent uncertainty to provide valid information. This paper describes a method on how to evaluate uncertainties in strain measurement using electric strain gages for practical engineering applications. Therefore, a basic model of the measurement is deduced that comprises the main influence factors and their uncertainties. This is performed using the example of a project dealing with strain measurement on the concrete surface of a large-span road bridge under static loading. Special attention is given to the statistical modeling of the inputs, the underlying physical relationship, and the incorporation and the impact of nonlinearities for different environmental conditions and strain levels. In this regard, also experiments were conducted to quantify the influence of misalignment of the gages. The methodological approach used is Monte Carlo simulation. A subsequent variance-based sensitivity analysis reveals the degree of nonlinearity in the relationship and the importance of the different factors to the resulting probability distribution. The developed scheme requires a minimum of expert knowledge of the analytical derivation of measurement uncertainties and can easily be modified for differing requirements and purposes.

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Insulin, a key hormone in the regulation of glucose homoeostasis, is secreted by pancreatic ß-cells in response to elevated glucose levels. Insulin is released in a biphasic manner in response to glucose metabolism in ß-cells. The first phase of insulin secretion is triggered by an increase in the ATP:ADP ratio; the second phase occurs in response to both a rise in ATP:ADP and other key metabolic signals, including a rise in the NADPH:NADP+ ratio. Experimental evidence indicates that pyruvate-cycling pathways play an important role in the elevation of the NADPH:NADP+ ratio in response to glucose. The authors developed a kinetic model for the tricarboxylic acid cycle and pyruvate cycling pathways. The authors successfully validated the model against experimental observations and performed a sensitivity analysis to identify key regulatory interactions in the system. The model predicts that the dicarboxylate carrier and the pyruvate transporter are the most important regulators of pyruvate cycling and NADPH production. In contrast, the analysis showed that variation in the pyruvate carboxylase flux was compensated by a response in the activity of mitochondrial isocitrate dehydrogenase (ICDm ) resulting in minimal effect on overall pyruvate cycling flux. The model predictions suggest starting points for further experimental investigation, as well as potential drug targets for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.

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Polymer nanodielectrics present a particularly challenging materials design problem for capacitive energy storage applications like polymer film capacitors. High permittivity and breakdown strength are needed to achieve high energy density and loss must be low. Strategies that increase permittivity tend to decrease the breakdown strength and increase loss. We hypothesize that a parameter space exists for fillers of modest aspect ratio functionalized with charge-trapping molecules that results in an increase in permittivity and breakdown strength simultaneously, while limiting increases in loss. In this work, we explore this parameter space, using physics-based, multiscale 3D dielectric property simulations, mixed-variable machine learning and Bayesian optimization to identify the compositions and morphologies which lead to the optimization of these competing properties. We employ first principle-based calculations for interface trap densities which are further used in breakdown strength calculations. For permittivity and loss calculations, we use continuum scale modelling and finite difference solution of Poisson's equation for steady-state currents. We propose a design framework for optimizing multiple properties by tuning design variables including the microstructure and interface properties. Finally, we employ mixed-variable global sensitivity analysis to understand the complex interplay between four continuous microstructural and two categorical interface choices to extract further physical knowledge on the design of nanodielectrics.

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Background: Energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are commonly used to support long-term planning at national, regional, or continental scales. The importance of recognising uncertainty in energy system modelling is regularly commented on but there is little practical guidance on how to best incorporate existing techniques, such as global sensitivity analysis, despite some good applications in the literature. Methods: In this paper, we provide comprehensive guidelines for conducting a global sensitivity analysis of an ESOM, aiming to remove barriers to adopting this approach. With a pedagogical intent, we begin by exploring why you should conduct a global sensitivity analysis. We then describe how to implement a global sensitivity analysis using the Morris method in an ESOM using a sequence of simple illustrative models built using the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) framework, followed by a realistic example. Results: Results show that the global sensitivity analysis identifies influential parameters that drive results in the simple and realistic models, and identifies uninfluential parameters which can be ignored or fixed. We show that global sensitivity analysis can be applied to ESOMs with relative ease using freely available open-source tools. The results replicate the findings of best-practice studies from the field demonstrating the importance of including all parameters in the analysis and avoiding a narrow focus on particular parameters such as technology costs. Conclusions: The results highlight the benefits of performing a global sensitivity analysis for the design of energy system optimisation scenarios. We discuss how the results can be interpreted and used to enhance the transparency and rigour of energy system modelling studies.

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Environmental vulnerability is an important tool to understand the natural and anthropogenic impacts associated with the susceptibility to environmental damage. This study aims to assess the environmental vulnerability of the Doce River basin in Brazil through Multicriteria Decision Analysis based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS-MCDA). Natural factors (slope, elevation, relief dissection, rainfall, pedology, and geology) and anthropogenic factors (distance from urban centers, roads, mining dams, and land use) were used to determine the environmental vulnerability index (EVI). The EVI was classified into five classes, identifying associated land uses. Vulnerability was verified in water resource management units (UGRHs) and municipalities using hot spot analysis. The study employed the water quality index (WQI) to assess the EVI and global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to evaluate the model input parameters that most influence the basin's environmental vulnerability. The results showed that the regions near the middle Doce River were considered environmentally more vulnerable, especially the UGRHs Guandu, Manhuaçu, and Caratinga; and 35.9% of the basin has high and very high vulnerabilities. Hot spot analysis identified regions with low EVI values (cold spot) in the north and northwest, while areas with high values (hot spot) were concentrated mainly in the middle Doce region. Water monitoring stations with the worst WQI values were found in the most environmentally vulnerable areas. The GSA determined that land use and slope were the primary factors influencing the model's response. The results of this study provide valuable information for supporting environmental planning in the Doce River basin.

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