RESUMEN
Landscape ecological risk (LER) is an effective index to identify regional ecological risk and measure regional ecological security. The localized shared socioeconomic pathways (LSSPs) can provide multi-scenario parameters of social and economic development for LER research. The research of LER under LSSPs is of scientific significance and practical value in curbing the breeding and spread of LER risk areas. In this study, land-cover raster files from 2010 to 2020 were used as the foundational data. Future land use simulation (FLUS), regression, and Markov chain models were used to predict the land cover patterns under the five LSSP scenarios in the Xiangjiang River Basin (XJRB) in 2030. Thus, an evaluation model was established, and the LER of the watershed was evaluated. We found that the rate of land cover change (LCC) in the XJRB between 2010 and 2020 had a higher intensity (increasing at an average of 18.89% per decade) than that projected under the LSSPs for 2020-2030 (averaging an increase of 8.58% per decade). Among the growth rates of all land use types in the XJRB, that of urban land was the highest (33.3%). From 2010 to 2030, the LER in the XJRB was classified as lower risk (33.73%), lowest risk (33.11%), and moderate risk (24.13%) for each decade. Finally, the LER exhibited significant heterogeneity among different scenarios. Specifically, the percentages of regions characterized by the highest (9.77%) and higher LER (9.75%) were notably higher than those in the remaining scenarios. The higher-level risk area under the localized SSP1 demonstrated a clear spatial reduction compared to those of the other four scenarios. In addition, in order to facilitate the differential management and control of LER by relevant departments, risk zoning was carried out at the county level according to the prediction results of LER. And we got three types of risk management regions for the XJRB under the LSSPs.
Asunto(s)
Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Ríos , Simulación por Computador , China , Riesgo , Factores Socioeconómicos , EcosistemaRESUMEN
Under the scenarios of climate change, balancing the land and water resources is one of the key problems needed to be solved in land development. To reveal the water dynamics of the cultivated land in Naoli River Basin, we simulated the future scenarios by using the future land use simulation model based on Landsat Satellite images, the DEM data and the meteorological data. Results showed that the growth rate of cultivated land gradually decreased. It showed different changing characteristics in different time periods, which led to different balancing effect between land and water resources. In 1990, the water dynamics of the cultivated land resources was in good state, At the same time, the adjustment of crops structure caused the paddy fields increased dramatically. During 2002 to 2014, the cultivated land that in moderate and serious moisture shortage state increased slightly, the water deficit was deteriorating to a certain degree, and maintained sound development of water profit and loss situation gradually. By comparing the simulation accuracy with different spatial resolutions and time scales, we selected 200 m as the spatial resolution of the simulation, and simulated the land use status in 2038. The simulation results showed that the cultivated land's water profit and loss degree in the river basin showed significant polarization characteristic, in that the water profit and loss degree of the cultivated land would be further intensified, the area with the higher grades of moisture profit and loss degree would distribute more centralized, and partially high evaluated grades for the moisture shortage would expand. It is needed to develop the cultivated land irrigation schemes and adjust the cultivated land in Naoli River Basin to balance soil and water resources.