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Forecasting mortality rates is crucial for evaluating life insurance company solvency, especially amid disruptions caused by phenomena like COVID-19. The Lee-Carter model is commonly employed in mortality modelling; however, extensions that can encompass count data with diverse distributions, such as the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model utilizing the COM-Poisson distribution, exhibit potential for enhancing time-to-event forecasting accuracy. Using mortality data from 29 countries, this research evaluates various distributions and determines that the COM-Poisson model surpasses the Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial distributions in forecasting mortality rates. The one-step forecasting capability of the GAS model offers distinct advantages, while the COM-Poisson distribution demonstrates enhanced flexibility and versatility by accommodating various distributions, including Poisson and negative binomial. Ultimately, the study determines that the COM-Poisson GAS model is an effective instrument for examining time series data on mortality rates, particularly when facing time-varying parameters and non-conventional data distributions.

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Most current methods use spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) to analyze complex spatial-temporal information from traffic data collected from hundreds of sensors. STGNNs combine graph neural networks (GNNs) and sequence models to create hybrid structures that allow for the two networks to collaborate. However, this collaboration has made the model increasingly complex. This study proposes a framework that relies solely on original Transformer architecture and carefully designs embeddings to efficiently extract spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic flow. Additionally, we used pre-trained language models to enhance forecasting performance. We compared our new framework with current state-of-the-art STGNNs and Transformer-based models using four real-world traffic datasets: PEMS04, PEMS08, METR-LA, and PEMS-BAY. The experimental results demonstrate that our framework outperforms the other models in most metrics.

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Accurate and timely forecasting of traffic on local road networks is crucial for deploying effective dynamic traffic control, advanced route planning, and navigation services. This task is particularly challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dependencies arising from non-Euclidean spatial relations in road networks and non-linear temporal dynamics influenced by changing road conditions. This paper introduces the spatio-temporal network embedding (STNE) model, a novel deep learning framework tailored for learning and forecasting graph-structured traffic data over extended input sequences. Unlike traditional convolutional neural networks (CNNs), the model employs graph convolutional networks (GCNs) to capture the spatial characteristics of local road network topologies. Moreover, the segmentation of very long input traffic data into multiple sub-sequences, based on significant temporal properties such as closeness, periodicity, and trend, is performed. Multi-dimensional long short-term memory neural networks (MDLSTM) are utilized to flexibly access multi-dimensional context. Experimental results demonstrate that the STNE model surpasses state-of-the-art traffic forecasting benchmarks on two large-scale real-world traffic datasets.

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Tissue hysteresivity is an important marker for determining the onset and progression of respiratory diseases, calculated from forced oscillation lung function test data. This study aims to reduce the number and duration of required measurements by combining multivariate data from various sensing devices. We propose using the Forced Oscillation Technique (FOT) lung function test in both a low-frequency prototype and the commercial RESMON device, combined with continuous monitoring from the Equivital (EQV) LifeMonitor and processed by artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. While AI and deep learning have been employed in various aspects of respiratory system analysis, such as predicting lung tissue displacement and respiratory failure, the prediction or forecasting of tissue hysteresivity remains largely unexplored in the literature. In this work, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is used in two ways: (1) to estimate the hysteresivity coefficient η using heart rate (HR) data collected continuously by the EQV sensor, and (2) to forecast η values by first predicting the heart rate from electrocardiogram (ECG) data. Our methodology involves a rigorous two-hour measurement protocol, with synchronized data collection from the EQV, FOT, and RESMON devices. Our results demonstrate that LSTM networks can accurately estimate the tissue hysteresivity parameter η, achieving an R2 of 0.851 and a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.296 for estimation, and forecast η with an R2 of 0.883 and an MSE of 0.528, while significantly reducing the number of required measurements by a factor of three (i.e., from ten to three) for the patient. We conclude that our novel approach minimizes patient effort by reducing the measurement time and the overall ambulatory time and costs while highlighting the potential of artificial intelligence methods in respiratory monitoring.

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In the dynamic world of cloud computing, auto-scaling stands as a beacon of efficiency, dynamically aligning resources with fluctuating demands. This paper presents a comprehensive review of auto-scaling techniques, highlighting significant advancements and persisting challenges in the field. First, we overview the fundamental principles and mechanisms of auto-scaling, including its role in improving cost efficiency, performance, and energy consumption in cloud services. We then discuss various strategies employed in auto-scaling, ranging from threshold-based rules and queuing theory to sophisticated machine learning and time series analysis approaches. After that, we explore the critical issues in auto-scaling practices and review several studies that demonstrate how these challenges can be addressed. We then conclude by offering insights into several promising research directions, emphasizing the development of predictive scaling mechanisms and the integration of advanced machine learning techniques to achieve more effective and efficient auto-scaling solutions.

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In this study, we introduce an innovative method for load forecasting that capitalizes on the concept of task affinity score to measure the similarity between various tasks. The task affinity score emerges as a superior technique for assessing task similarity within the realm of transfer learning. Through empirical evaluation on a synthetic dataset, we establish the superiority of the task affinity score over traditional metrics in task selection scenarios. To operationalize this method, we unveil the Affinity-Driven Transfer Learning (ADTL) algorithm to enhance load forecasting precision. The ADTL algorithm enriches the transfer learning framework by incorporating insights from both pre-trained models and datasets, thereby augmenting the accuracy of load forecasting for new and unseen datasets. The robustness of the ADTL algorithm is further evidenced through its application to two empirical datasets, namely the dataset provided by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the Smart Australian dataset. In conclusion, our research underscores the important role of the task affinity score in refining transfer learning methodologies for load forecasting applications.

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Background: During surgery, intraoperative hypotension is associated with postoperative morbidity and should therefore be avoided. Predicting the occurrence of hypotension in advance may allow timely interventions to prevent hypotension. Previous prediction models mostly use high-resolution waveform data, which is often not available. Methods: We utilised a novel temporal fusion transformer (TFT) algorithm to predict intraoperative blood pressure trajectories 7 min in advance. We trained the model with low-resolution data (sampled every 15 s) from 73,009 patients who were undergoing general anaesthesia for non-cardiothoracic surgery between January 1, 2017, and December 30, 2020, at the General Hospital of Vienna, Austria. The data set contained information on patient demographics, vital signs, medication, and ventilation. The model was evaluated using an internal (n = 8113) and external test set (n = 5065) obtained from the openly accessible Vital Signs Database. Findings: In the internal test set, the mean absolute error for predicting mean arterial blood pressure was 0.376 standard deviations-or 4 mmHg-and 0.622 standard deviations-or 7 mmHg-in the external test set. We also adapted the TFT model to binarily predict the occurrence of hypotension as defined by mean arterial blood pressure < 65 mmHg in the next one, three, five, and 7 min. Here, model discrimination was excellent, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.933 in the internal test set and 0.919 in the external test set. Interpretation: Our TFT model is capable of accurately forecasting intraoperative arterial blood pressure using only low-resolution data showing a low prediction error. When used for binary prediction of hypotension, we obtained excellent performance. Funding: No external funding.

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Depression has become a prevalent mental disorder that significantly affects a person's emotions, behaviors, physical health, ability to perform daily tasks, and ability to maintain healthy relationships. Untreated depression can escalate the risk of suicide, making the situation even worse. Despite an abundance of models previously proposed for forecasting depression, the issue of foretelling the overall number of patients at each administrative level remains under-investigated. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a simple but effective SpatioTemporal Monitoring Framework for National Depression Forecasting (MONDEP). In particular, we analyze national depression statistics data in Thailand as a case study and create prediction models for a real-time depression forecasting system using machine learning and deep learning approaches. In order to forecast the prevalence of depression at various administrative levels, we use the hierarchical structure of depression aggregation. The proposed framework consists of three modules: Data Pre-processing to extract and pre-process the raw data, Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) to visualize and analyze the data to get insight, and Model Training and Testing to predict future depression cases. The objective of our research is to construct a comprehensive MONDEP framework that utilizes machine learning and deep learning to predict depression profiles at the district and national levels using multivariate time series across various administrative levels. Our study illustrates the considerable association between a spatial-temporal component and demonstrates how depression profiles may be represented by employing lower administrative-level data to estimate the general level of mental health across the nation. Additionally, the best performance across all criteria is obtained when a deep learning model is used to exploit multivariate time series, showing a 13% improvement in MAE measure compared to the SARIMAX baseline. We believe the proposed framework could be used as a point of reference for decision-making regarding the management of depression and has the potential to be incredibly helpful for policymakers in successfully managing mental health services on time.

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We develop a hybrid model of multivariate volatility that uses recurrent neural networks to capture the conditional variances of latent orthogonal factors in a GO-GARCH framework. Our approach seeks to balance model flexibility with ease of estimation and can be used to model conditional covariances of a large number of assets. The model performs favourably in comparison with relevant benchmark models in a minimum variance portfolio (MVP) scenario.

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Predicting regional carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is essential for advancing toward global carbon neutrality. This study introduces a novel CO2 emissions prediction model tailored to the unique environmental, economic, and energy consumption of Shanghai Chongming. Utilizing an innovative hybrid approach, the study first applies grey relational analysis to evaluate the influence of economic activity, natural conditions, and energy consumption on CO2 emissions. This is followed by the implementation of a dual-channel pooled convolutional neural network (DCNN) that captures both local and global features of the data, enhanced through feature stacking. Gated recurrent unit (GRU) network then assesses the temporal aspects of these features, culminating in precise CO2 emission predictions for the region. The results indicate: (1) The proposed hybrid model achieves accurate predictions based on accounting data, with high precision, low error, and good stability. (2) The study found an overall increase in Chongming's carbon emissions from 2000 to 2022, with the prediction results being generally consistent with existing research findings. (3) The proposed method, based on Chongming's CO2 emission predictions, addresses issues such as the scarcity of effective accounting data and inaccuracies in traditional calculation methods. The results can provide effective technical support for local government policies on carbon reduction and promote sustainable development.

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To inform public health interventions, researchers have developed models to forecast opioid-related overdose mortality. These efforts often have limited overlap in the models and datasets employed, presenting challenges to assessing progress in this field. Furthermore, common error-based performance metrics, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), cannot directly assess a key modeling purpose: the identification of priority areas for interventions. We recommend a new intervention-aware performance metric, Percentage of Best Possible Reach (%BPR). We compare metrics for many published models across two distinct geographic settings, Cook County, Illinois and Massachusetts, assuming the budget to intervene in 100 census tracts out of 1000s in each setting. The top-performing models based on RMSE recommend areas that do not always reach the most possible overdose events. In Massachusetts, the top models preferred by %BPR could have reached 18 additional fatal overdoses per year in 2020-2021 compared to models favored by RMSE. In Cook County, the different metrics select similar top-performing models, yet other models with similar RMSE can have significant variation in %BPR. We further find that simple models often perform as well as recently published ones. We release open code and data for others to build upon.

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The complex characteristics of volatility and non-linearity of carbon price pose a serious challenge to accurately predict carbon price. Therefore, this study proposes a new hybrid model for multivariate carbon price forecasting, including feature selection, deep learning, intelligent optimization algorithms, model combination and evaluation indicators. First, this study collects and organizes the historical carbon price series of Hubei and Shanghai as well as the influencing factors in five dimensions including structured and unstructured data, totaling twenty variables. Second, data dimensionality reduction is performed and input variables are obtained using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, followed by the introduction of nine advanced deep learning models to predict carbon price and compare the prediction effects. Then, through the combination of models, three models with the best performance are combined with Pelican optimization algorithm to construct a hybrid forecasting model. Finally, the experimental results show that the developed forecasting model outperforms other comparation models in terms of prediction accuracy, stability and statistical hypothesis testing, and exhibits excellent prediction performance. Furthermore, this study also applies the developed model to European carbon market price prediction and uses the Hubei carbon market as an example for quantitative trading simulation, and the empirical results further verify its robust prediction performance and investment application value. In conclusion, the proposed hybrid prediction model can not only provide high-precision carbon market price prediction for the government and corporate decision makers, but also help investors optimize their trading strategies and improve their returns.

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Accurate consumption forecasting is of great importance to grasp the energy consumption habits of consumers and promote the stable and efficient operation of integrated energy system (IES). To this end, this paper proposes an interactive multi-scale convolutional module-based short-term multi-energy consumption forecasting method for IES. Firstly, based on multi-scale feature fusion and multi-energy interactive learning, a novel interactive multi-scale convolutional module is proposed to extract and share the coupling information between energy consumption from different scales without increasing network parameters. Then, a short-term multi-energy consumption forecasting method is proposed, where different forecasting network structures are selected in different seasons to make full use of seasonal and coupling characteristics of the energy consumption, thus enhancing prediction performance. Furthermore, a Laplace distribution-based loss function weight optimization method is proposed to dynamically balance the loss magnitude and training speed of joint forecast tasks more robustly. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are verified by comparative simulation experiments.

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Accurate flood forecasting is crucial for flood prevention and mitigation, safeguarding the lives and properties of residents, as well as the rational use of water resources. The study proposes a model of long and short-term memory (LSTM) combined with the vector direction (VD) of the flood process. The Jingle and Lushi basins were selected as the research objects, and the model was trained and validated using 50 and 49 measured flood rainfall-runoff data in a 7:3 division ratio, respectively. The results indicate that the VD-LSTM model has more advantages than the LSTM model, with increased NSE, and reduced RMSE and bias to varying degrees. The flow simulation results of VD-LSTM better match the observed flow hydrographs, improving the underestimation of peak flows and the lag issue of the model. Under the same task and dataset, with the same hyperparameter settings, VD-LSTM can more quickly reduce the loss function value and achieve a better fit compared to LSTM. The proposed VD-LSTM model couples the vectorization process of flood runoff with the LSTM neural network, which contributes to the model better exploring the change characteristics of rising and receding water in flood runoff processes, reducing the training gradient error of input-output data for the LSTM model, and more effectively simulating flood process.

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OBJECTIVE: Tuberculosis (TB) remains an important public health concern in western China. This study aimed to explore and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China and to construct the optimal models for prediction, which would provide a reference for the prevention and control of TB and the optimization of related health policies. METHODS: We collected monthly data on TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China and used ArcGIS software to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of TB reported incidence. We applied the seasonal index method for the seasonal analysis of TB reported incidence and then established the SARIMA and Holt-Winters models for TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China. RESULTS: The reported incidence of TB in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China showed apparent spatial clustering characteristics, and Moran's I was greater than 0 (p < 0.05) over 8 years during the reporting period. Among them, Tibet was the hotspot for TB incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China. The reported incidence of TB in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China from 2004 to 2018 showed clear seasonal characteristics, with seasonal indices greater than 100% in both the first and second quarters. The optimal models constructed for TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China all passed white noise test (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: As a hotspot of reported TB incidence, Tibet should continue to strengthen government leadership and policy support, explore TB intervention strategies and causes. The optimal prediction models we developed for reported TB incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China were different.

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Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) technology is emerging as a rapid pathogen testing method, potentially challenging the RT-PCR "gold standard". Despite recent advancements, LAMP's widespread adoption remains limited. This study provides a comprehensive market overview and assesses future growth prospects to aid stakeholders in strategic decision-making and policy formulation. Using a dataset of 1134 LAMP patent documents, we analyzed lifecycle and geographic distribution, applicant profiles, CPC code classifications, and patent claims. Additionally, we examined clinical developments from 21 curated clinical trials, focusing on trends, geographic engagement, sponsor types, and the conditions and pathogens investigated. Our analysis highlights LAMP's potential as a promising rapid pathogen testing alternative, especially in resource-limited areas. It also reveals a gap between clinical research, which targets bacterial and parasitic diseases like malaria, leishmaniasis, and tuberculosis, and basic research and commercial efforts that prioritize viral diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. European stakeholders emphasize the societal impact of addressing unmet needs in resource-limited areas, while American and Asian organizations focus more on research, innovation, and commercialization.

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While data-driven approaches demonstrate great potential in atmospheric modeling and weather forecasting, ocean modeling poses distinct challenges due to complex bathymetry, land, vertical structure, and flow non-linearity. This study introduces OceanNet, a principled neural operator-based digital twin for regional sea-suface height emulation. OceanNet uses a Fourier neural operator and predictor-evaluate-corrector integration scheme to mitigate autoregressive error growth and enhance stability over extended time scales. A spectral regularizer counteracts spectral bias at smaller scales. OceanNet is applied to the northwest Atlantic Ocean western boundary current (the Gulf Stream), focusing on the task of seasonal prediction for Loop Current eddies and the Gulf Stream meander. Trained using historical sea surface height (SSH) data, OceanNet demonstrates competitive forecast skill compared to a state-of-the-art dynamical ocean model forecast, reducing computation by 500,000 times. These accomplishments demonstrate initial steps for physics-inspired deep neural operators as cost-effective alternatives to high-resolution numerical ocean models.

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We utilized city-scale simulations to quantitatively compare the diverse urban overheating mitigation strategies, specifically tied to social vulnerability and their cooling efficacies during heatwaves. We enhanced the Weather Research and Forecasting model to encompass the urban tree effect and calculate the Universal Thermal Climate Index for assessing thermal comfort. Taking Houston, Texas, and United States as an example, the study reveals that equitably mitigating urban overheat is achievable by considering the city's demographic composition and physical structure. The study results show that while urban trees may yield less cooling impact (0.27 K of Universal Thermal Climate Index in daytime) relative to cool roofs (0.30 K), the urban trees strategy can emerge as an effective approach for enhancing community resilience in heat stress-related outcomes. Social vulnerability-based heat mitigation was reviewed as vulnerability-weighted daily cumulative heat stress change. The results underscore: (i) importance of considering the community resilience when evaluating heat mitigation impact and (ii) the need to assess planting spaces for urban trees, rooftop areas, and neighborhood vulnerability when designing community-oriented urban overheating mitigation strategies.

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The deregulation of electricity market has led to the development of the short-term electricity market. The power generators and consumers can sell and purchase the electricity in the day ahead terms. The market clearing electricity price varies throughout the day due to the increase in the consumers bidding for electricity. Forecasting of the electricity in the day ahead market is of significance for appropriate bidding. To predict the electricity price the modified method of Exponential Smoothing-CNN-LSTM is proposed based on the time series method of Exponential Smoothing and Deep Learning methods of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The dataset used for assessment of the forecasting algorithms is collected from the day ahead electricity market at the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX). The forecasting results of the Exponential Smoothing-CNN-LSTM method evaluated in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as 0.11, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as 0.17 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as 1.53 % indicates improved performance. The proposed algorithm can be used to forecast the time series in other domains as finance, retail, healthcare, manufacturing.•The method of Exponential Smoothing-CNN-LSTM is proposed for forecasting the electricity price a day ahead for accurate bidding for the short-term electricity market participants.•The forecasting results indicate the better performance of the proposed method than the existing techniques of Exponential Smoothing, LSTM and CNN-LSTM due to the advantages of the Exponential Smoothing to extract the levels and seasonality and with the CNN-LSTM methods ability to model the complex spatial and temporal dependencies in the time series.