RESUMEN

Powerful wildfires occurring in Siberia each summer emit large amounts of smoke aerosol that, according to studies of the environmental impacts of biomass burning (BB) aerosol in different regions of the world, can affect precipitation and other weather parameters and induce feedback on fires. However, the knowledge of smoke-weather interactions and fire-weather feedback in Siberia is presently limited. To advance this knowledge, we performed coupled-meteorology-chemistry simulations of aerosols and weather in a Siberian region covering taiga and tundra using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model and the WRF meteorological model. We addressed a monthly period of July 2016 and considered several modeling scenarios in which aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI) and aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) were taken into account jointly or separately. The simulation results were combined with emission and precipitation data retrieved from satellite observations. The joint analysis of the simulated precipitation fields and satellite-observation-based data revealed that in the taiga, the inhibiting effect of Siberian smoke on precipitation induced a significant positive feedback on BB aerosol emissions that, according to our estimates, enhanced by 27 (±7) % respective to a hypothetical situation in which smoke-weather interactions were absent. At the same time, an increase of precipitation over active fire spots due to ACI and ARI in tundra led to the formation of a negative feedback loop between fire emissions and BB smoke, resulting in a reduction of BB aerosol emissions there by 14 (±6) %. Hence, this study revealed evidence for significant feedback of smoke-induced precipitation changes on fire emissions in Siberia. Given the global importance of Siberia as a major carbon sink, this feedback needs to be studied further and accurately taken into account in projections of climate change both on regional and global scales.

RESUMEN

This study examines the convergence between traditional and scientific knowledge regarding the use of fire and its potential to trigger wildfires, with possible impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. The research encompasses three distinct natural regions of Ecuador: the coast, the highlands, and the Amazon. Data on traditional fire use were collected through semi-structured interviews with 791 members from five local communities. These data were compared with climatic variables (rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), wind speed (km/h), and wind direction) to understand the climatic conditions conducive to wildfires and their relationship with human perceptions. Furthermore, the severity of fires over the past 4 years (2019-2022) was assessed using remote sensing methods, employing the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and the difference between pre-fire and post-fire conditions (NBR Pre-fire-NBR Post-fire). The results revealed a significant alignment between traditional knowledge, climatic data, and many fires, which were of low severity, suggesting potential benefits for ecosystems. These findings not only enable the identification of optimal techniques and timing for traditional burns but also contribute to human well-being by maintaining a harmonious balance between communities and their environment. Additionally, they provide valuable insights for the development of more inclusive and effective integrated fire management strategies in these natural areas of Ecuador.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Recently burned boreal forests have lower aboveground fuel loads, generating a negative feedback to subsequent wildfires. Despite this feedback, short-interval reburns (≤20 years between fires) are possible under extreme weather conditions. Reburns have consequences for ecosystem recovery, leading to enduring vegetation change. In this study, we characterize the strength of the fire-fuel feedback in recently burned Canadian boreal forests and the weather conditions that overwhelm resistance to fire spread in recently burned areas. We used a dataset of daily fire spread for thousands of large boreal fires, interpolated from remotely sensed thermal anomalies to which we associated local weather from ERA5-Land for each day of a fire's duration. We classified days with >3 ha of fire growth as spread days and defined burned pixels overlapping a fire perimeter ≤20 years old as short-interval reburns. Results of a logistic regression showed that the odds of fire spread in recently burned areas were ~50% lower than in long-interval fires; however, all Canadian boreal ecozones experienced short-interval reburning (1981-2021), with over 100,000 ha reburning annually. As fire weather conditions intensify, the resistance to fire spread declines, allowing fire to spread in recently burned areas. The weather associated with short-interval fire spread days was more extreme than the conditions during long-interval spread, but overall differences were modest (e.g. relative humidity 2.6% lower). The frequency of fire weather conducive to short-interval fire spread has significantly increased in the western boreal forest due to climate warming and drying (1981-2021). Our results suggest an ongoing degradation of fire-fuel feedbacks, which is likely to continue with climatic warming and drying.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Climate change has disproportional effects on Arctic-boreal ecosystems, as the increase of air temperatures in these northern regions is several times higher than the global average. Ongoing warming and drying have resulted in recent record-breaking fire years in Arctic-boreal ecosystems, resulting in substantial carbon emissions that might accelerate climate change. While recent trends in Arctic-boreal burned area have been well documented, it is still unclear how fire intensity has changed. Fire intensity relates to the energy release from combustion and to a large extent drives the impact of a fire on the vegetation and soils, the emission of various gasses and the combustion completeness of different fuels. Here, we used the active fire product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to examine trends in fire radiative power (FRP) over the entire Arctic-boreal region. We found a significant increase in annual median fire intensity between 2003 and 2022 in Eurasian boreal forests, for both daytime (increase of 0.392 MW/km2 per year, R2 = 0.56, p < 0.001) and nighttime fires (increase of 0.175 MW/km2 per year, R2 = 0.47, p < 0.001), while no general trend in FRP was observed in boreal North America. This increase in FRP in Eurasian boreal forests was strongly associated with simultaneous increases in air temperature, vapour pressure deficit, fire weather and fuel availability. We estimated that for Eurasia with each degree increase in air temperature, annual median daytime FRP increases with 1.58 MW/km2 in the tundra and 0.94 MW/km2 in the taiga. Climate change has thus resulted in a widespread and clear increase in fire intensity in central and eastern Eurasia while we could not discern clear trends in Arctic-boreal North America. Arctic-boreal fire intensity may further increase with climate change, with potentially major consequences for fire regimes, carbon emissions and society.

RESUMEN

The identification of the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns which are associated with extreme fire weather is of great importance for developing early warning systems, management strategies, and for increasing awareness and preparedness of all the involved entities, including both the public and practitioners. Such a forecasting approach is currently missing in Greece and many other countries. Furthermore, considering climate projections over the Mediterranean, which indicate an environment more conducive to wildfire activity, the need for timely forecasting of extreme fire weather becomes increasingly urgent. Here, we present an alternative fire weather forecasting framework using ERA5 reanalysis data of atmospheric variables and fire weather indices of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) during the period June-October from 1979 to 2019. Within this framework, we define the critical fire weather patterns (CFWPs) of Greece associated with different levels of fire weather severity by applying Self-Organizing-Maps (SOMs) on mid-tropospheric geopotential height. We quantify the fire weather conditions associated with each CFWP. Using a set of CFFWIS indices and key fire weather variables, our SOM-based analysis reveals five distinct CFWPs linked to different levels and characteristics of fire weather severity. The lowest fire weather severity is associated with lower than average geopotential heights, and anomalous cold and moist weather. The highest fire weather severity is associated with higher than average geopotential heights, and anomalous hot, dry, and windy conditions, suggesting the potential for wind-driven wildfires. Our analysis yields elevated fire weather severity linked to a CFWP, when hot and dry conditions are accompanied by atmospheric instability, suggesting the potential for plume-driven wildfires and the potential for pyroconvection. The main advantage of this forecasting framework is that it could be used for providing valuable information regarding the upcoming fire weather conditions even up to 7-12 days in advance depending on the atmospheric predictability.

RESUMEN

Microwaves have the advantage of penetrating vegetation and exhibit sensitivity to properties such as vegetation water content (VWC); yet, their potential utility in the fire domain is infrequently investigated. This study elucidates the different impacts of the microwave VWC index EDVI on fire radiative energy (FRE) across various biome types and the significant predictive power for high-severity fires (defined based on FRE) in mainland Southeast Asia. While EDVI exhibits lower predictive power for high severe fires compared to the commonly used fire weather indices (e.g., FWI), an enhancement is observed when these predictors are used in combination. Either by employing EDVI or fire weather indices, the predictability of fires is found to be highest over forests and lowest over croplands. Factors such as increasing human influence and fuel limitation in croplands are likely reducing the roles of VWC and weather on fires, contributing to the lower prediction skill of EDVI and fire weather. These results indicate the usefulness of microwave VWC index in fire studies. Although fire weather presents more considerable impacts on fires, the microwave VWC index seem to still provide some complementary information in fire danger assessment.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Although broadleaf tree species of the boreal biome have a lower flammability compared to conifers, there is a period following snow melt and prior to leaf flush (i.e., greenup), termed the "spring window" by fire managers, when these forests are relatively conducive to wildfire ignition and spread. The goal of this study was to characterize the duration, timing, and fire proneness of the spring window across boreal Canada and assess the link between these phenological variables and the incidence of springtime wildfires. We used remotely sensed snow cover and greenup data to identify the annual spring window for five boreal ecozones from 2001 to 2021 and then compared seasonality of wildfire starts (by cause) and fire-conducive weather in relation to this window, averaged over the 21-year period. We conducted a path analysis to concomitantly evaluate the influence of the spring window's duration, the timing of greenup, and fire-conducive weather on the annual number and the seasonality of spring wildfires. Results show that the characteristics of spring windows vary substantially from year to year and among geographic zones, with the interior west of Canada having the longest and most fire-conducive spread window and, accordingly, the greatest springtime wildfire activity. We also provide support for the belief that springtime weather generally promotes wind-driven, rather than drought-driven wildfires. The path analyses show idiosyncratic behavior among ecozones, but, in general, the seasonality of the wildfire season is mainly driven by the timing of the greenup, whereas the number of spring wildfires mostly responds to the duration of the spring window and the frequency of fire-conducive weather. The results of this study allows us to better understand and anticipate the biome-wide changes projected for the northern forests of North America.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Studies and observations have pointed out that recent wildfires have been more severe and burned area is increasing in tropical regions. The current study aims at investigating the influence of oceanic climate modes and their teleconnection on global fire danger and trends in the 1980-2020 interval. Disentangling these trends demonstrates that across the extratropics they are primarily related to increases in temperature, whereas in the tropics changes in short-term precipitation distribution dominates the trends. Moreover, the environmental impact of short-term precipitation is dependent on local vegetation type and tightly related to oceanic temperatures far from the burned areas. Indeed, in the 2001-2020 period, a warmer tropical North Atlantic was associated with more fires in the Amazon and Africa, whereas ENSO has weakened the fire activity in equatorial Africa. The remarkable impact of oceanic modes of climate variability in inducing environmental conditions conducive to fires, has particular relevance for the seasonal spatiotemporal wildfire forecasts. Although local aspects are crucial for fire management, long-term predictions should take into account the behavior of potential climate drivers located far from the region of interest. Such teleconnections can be identified ahead of local weather anomalies.

RESUMEN

Characterizing the fire regime in regions prone to extreme wildfire behavior is essential for providing comprehensive insights on potential ecosystem response to fire disturbance in the context of global change. We aimed to disentangle the linkage between contemporary damage-related attributes of wildfires as shaped by the environmental controls of fire behavior across mainland Portugal. We selected large wildfires (≥100 ha, n = 292) that occurred during the 2015-2018 period, covering the full spectrum of large fire-size variation. Ward's hierarchical clustering on principal components was used to identify homogeneous wildfire contexts at landscape scale on the basis of fire size, proportion of high fire severity, and fire severity variability, and their bottom-up (pre-fire fuel type fraction, topography) and top-down (fire weather) controls. Piecewise Structural Equation Modeling was used to disentangle the direct and indirect relationships between fire characteristics and fire behavior drivers. Cluster analysis evidenced severe and large wildfires in the central region of Portugal displaying consistent fire severity patterns. Thus, we found a positive relationship between fire size and proportion of high fire severity, which was mediated by distinct fire behavior drivers involving direct and indirect pathways. A high fraction of conifer forest within wildfire perimeters and extreme fire weather were primarily responsible for those interactions. In the context of global change, our results suggest that pre-fire fuel management should be targeted at expanding the fire weather settings in which fire control is feasible and promote less flammable and more resilient forest types.

RESUMEN

The challenge to the sustainable development of forestry in the Eurasian temperate - boreal zone is the increase in the frequency and severity of natural disturbances due to global climate change. In this study, a mathematical model for predicting the risk of wildfires in spruce stands growing in the territory of Slovak Paradise National Park under climate change has been proposed and tested. Wildfire risk is described in terms of the observed probabilities of the destruction of spruce stands in relation to their age for a period of 10 years. As the indicators of assumed climate change, the time series of daily values of four fire weather indices (Angstrom, Nesterov, Baumgartner, and the Meteorological Forest Fire Risk Index) for the period 1951-2019 have been analysed. The results obtained indicated the significant dependence of the observed increasing annual population proportions of burnt areas on the gradually increasing annual population proportions of risky days recorded and evaluated by using the common scales of risk classification. We found that ongoing climate change has a significant impact on increasing the risk of fires. The Meteorological Forest Fire Risk Index has proven to be the most suitable measure for predicting the probability of fire occurrence under the climate conditions in the experimental territory. The indicated risk of fire occurrence in spruce stands under the assumption of a climatic change is substantially higher than in the case when this assumption is neglected. This information can also serve as a basis for the formulation of efficient landscape fire protection measures focused on building the infrastructure to support the efficient retardation of propagation, including the quick suppression of this detrimental natural hazard.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

A spread day is defined as a day in which fires grow a substantial amount of area; such days usually occur during high or extreme fire weather conditions. The identification and prediction of a spread day based on fire weather conditions could help both our understanding of fire regimes as well as forecasting and managing fires operationally. This study explores the relationships between fire weather and spread days in the forested areas of Canada by spatially and temporally matching a daily fire growth database to a daily gridded fire weather database that spans from 2001 to 2019. By examining the correlations between spread day fire weather conditions and location, conifer coverage (%), and elevation, we found that a spread day happens under less severe fire weather conditions as latitude increases for the entire study area and as conifer coverage increases within non-mountainous study areas. In the western mountain areas, however, with increasing conifer coverage more severe fire weather conditions are required for a spread day to occur. Using two modeling approaches, we were able to identify spread day indicators (generalized additive model) and to predict the occurrence of spread days (semi-binomial regression model) by Canadian Ecozones both annually and seasonally. Overall, Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Initial Spread Index (ISI), and Fire Weather Index (FWI) performed the best in all models built for spread day identification and prediction but varied depending on the conditions mentioned above. FFMC was the most consistent across all spatial and temporal scales.

RESUMEN

Warming trends are altering fire regimes globally, potentially impacting on the long-term persistence of some ecosystems. However, we still lack clear understanding of how climatic stressors will alter fire regimes along productivity gradients. We trained a Random Forests model of fire probabilities across a 5°lat × 2° long trans-Andean rainfall gradient in northern Patagonia using a 23-year long fire record and biophysical, vegetation, human activity and seasonal fire weather predictors. The final model was projected onto mid- and late 21st century fire weather conditions predicted by an ensemble of GCMs using 4 emission scenarios. We finally assessed the vulnerability of different forest ecosystems by matching predicted fire return intervals with critical forest persistence fire return thresholds developed with landscape simulations. Modern fire activity showed the typical hump-shaped relationship with productivity and a negative distance relationship with human settlements. However, fire probabilities were far more sensitive to current season fire weather than to any other predictor. Sharp responsiveness of fire to the accelerating drier/warmer fire seasons predicted for the remainder of the 21st century in the region led to 2 to 3-fold (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and 3 to 8-fold increases in fire probabilities for the mid- and late 21st century, respectively. Contrary to current generalizations of larger impacts of warming on fire activity in fuel-rich ecosystems, our modeling results showed first an increase in predicted fire activity in less productive ecosystems (shrublands and steppes) and a later evenly amplified fire activity-productivity relationship with it shape resembling (at higher fire probabilities) the modern hump-shaped relationship. Despite this apparent homogeneous effect of warming on fire activity, vulnerability to predicted late 21st century shorter fire intervals were higher in most productive ecosystems (subalpine deciduous and evergreen Nothofagus-dominated rainforests) due to a general lack of fire-adapted traits in the dominant trees that compose these forests.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Great efforts have been made to understand the impacts of a changing climate on fire activity; however, a reliable approach with high prediction confidence has yet to be found. By establishing linkages between the longest duration of fire-conducive weather spell and fire activity parameters, this study projected annual area burned (AAB), annual number of fires (ANF), and annual maximum fire size (MFS) into the future. We found that even though the rates of change differ, the spatial pattern of changes for all three parameters are similar by Canadian ecozone. Areas with the lowest fire activity may see higher rates of change in comparison to high fire activity areas. By end of the century, the changes of AAB and MFS for the study area are projected to be about four and five times that of the baseline respectively, while ANF could almost double.

Asunto(s)

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex "Gigafire" occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Modeling wildfire activity is crucial for informing science-based risk management and understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of fire-prone ecosystems worldwide. Models help disentangle the relative influences of different factors, understand wildfire predictability, and provide insights into specific events. Here, we develop Firelihood, a two-component, Bayesian, hierarchically structured, probabilistic model of daily fire activity, which is modeled as the outcome of a marked point process: individual fires are the points (occurrence component), and fire sizes are the marks (size component). The space-time Poisson model for occurrence is adjusted to gridded fire counts using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) combined with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The size model is based on piecewise-estimated Pareto and generalized Pareto distributions, adjusted with INLA. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) and forest area are the main explanatory variables. Temporal and spatial residuals are included to improve the consistency of the relationship between weather and fire occurrence. The posterior distribution of the Bayesian model provided 1,000 replications of fire activity that were compared with observations at various temporal and spatial scales in Mediterranean France. The number of fires larger than 1 ha across the region was coarsely reproduced at the daily scale, and was more accurately predicted on a weekly basis or longer. The regional weekly total number of larger fires (10-100 ha) was predicted as well, but the accuracy degraded with size, as the model uncertainty increased with event rareness. Local predictions of fire numbers or burned areas also required a longer aggregation period to maintain model accuracy. The estimation of fires larger than 1 ha was also consistent with observations during the extreme fire season of the 2003 unprecedented heat wave, but the model systematically underrepresented large fires and burned areas, which suggests that the FWI does not consistently rate the actual danger of large fire occurrence during heat waves. Firelihood enabled a novel analysis of the stochasticity underlying fire hazard, and offers a variety of applications, including fire hazard predictions for management and projections in the context of climate change.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Weather conditions play an important role in wildfire activity. In many regions, future climate could lead to different fire weather, with impacts on the ignition, behaviour, and suppression of wildfires, which may, therefore, force new fire regimes. This study aimed to assess the evolution of fire weather indices and the Number of Extreme Days (NED) in the context of climate change. We estimated the impact of these changes on monthly Normalized Burnt Area (NBA) and in the spatial distribution of Pyro-Regions (PR), using a recently identified relationship between NED and NBA intra-annual patterns. The components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) in the Iberian Peninsula were analysed for present-day conditions and future climate scenarios, using daily data from ERA-Interim (1980-2014) and an ensemble of simulations from 11 EURO-CORDEX high spatial resolution models, for two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results suggest a significant increase in future fire weather risk, especially in late spring and early autumn, and also in southern and eastern Iberian Peninsula. NED is expected to strongly increase in summer months in the four PRs, but also to decrease in March and April in the northwestern and southwestern PR. This could change the spatial distribution of PRs, with a general northwards movement: the northern PR is expected to disappear except north of the Cantabrian Mountains, being replaced by the northwestern PR; the southwestern PR is expected to grow and occupy part of the area currently in the northwestern PR; and a new PR could appear in parts of the current eastern PR. These PR changes follow the projected modifications in the major climate regions. Results suggest different fire regimes in the future, with higher fire weather risk, and a longer and harsher fire season.

RESUMEN

The ENSO events affect climate and fire danger of China. It would be helpful for improving fire danger forecast to understand the impacts of ENSO events on fire weather for various ecological zones in the country. We calculated the fire weather index (FWI) using the daily climatic dataset (V3.0) of international exchange weather stations in China during 1951-2016. The burned areas in forests for each ecological zone in 2001-2016 were derived from MODIS fire products. Temperature, precipitation, FWI and burned areas in fire season were estimated for each ecological zone by ENSO events (weak, medium, strong, and super strong El Niño events and weak, medium, and strong La Niña events). The results showed that there were 19 El Niño events and 14 La Niña events during 1950-2016. The average daily maximum temperature of the spring fire season increased significantly in the northwestern region with the influence of strong or super strong El Niño event, while the temperature reduced significantly in the medium El Niño event for mid-temperate semi-arid grassland. Precipitation in fire season generally increased in El Niño events in southern and southwestern forest regions. It would be reduced in most areas affected by the low and medium intensity La Niña event, but be increased during the strong La Nina event. The fire weather indices of southern forest regions decreased due to the weak El Niño event. The FWI of the northern forest regions increased with the strong or super strong El Niño event, and reduced in the southern and southwestern forest areas. There was a significant spatial difference on the FWI for some ecological zones with the impacts of the El Niño/La Niña events. The burned areas showed a consistent change trend with seasonal severity rating (SSR) during 2001-2016 when the SSR changed significantly for the regions of deciduous broad-leaved forest in humid/semihumid areas of warm temperate zone, broad-leaved forest in the middle north subtropical humid areas, and broad-leaved forest in tropical and subtropical humid areas. The burned areas in the rest regions were not affected by the ENSO events.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Wildfire refugia (unburnt patches within large wildfires) are important for the persistence of fire-sensitive species across forested landscapes globally. A key challenge is to identify the factors that determine the distribution of fire refugia across space and time. In particular, determining the relative influence of climatic and landscape factors is important in order to understand likely changes in the distribution of wildfire refugia under future climates. Here, we examine the relative effect of weather (i.e. fire weather, drought severity) and landscape features (i.e. topography, fuel age, vegetation type) on the occurrence of fire refugia across 26 large wildfires in south-eastern Australia. Fire weather and drought severity were the primary drivers of the occurrence of fire refugia, moderating the effect of landscape attributes. Unburnt patches rarely occurred under 'severe' fire weather, irrespective of drought severity, topography, fuels or vegetation community. The influence of drought severity and landscape factors played out most strongly under 'moderate' fire weather. In mesic forests, fire refugia were linked to variables that affect fuel moisture, whereby the occurrence of unburnt patches decreased with increasing drought conditions and were associated with more mesic topographic locations (i.e. gullies, pole-facing aspects) and vegetation communities (i.e. closed-forest). In dry forest, the occurrence of refugia was responsive to fuel age, being associated with recently burnt areas (<5 years since fire). Overall, these results show that increased severity of fire weather and increased drought conditions, both predicted under future climate scenarios, are likely to lead to a reduction of wildfire refugia across forests of southern Australia. Protection of topographic areas able to provide long-term fire refugia will be an important step towards maintaining the ecological integrity of forests under future climate change.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Heat stress and forest fires are often considered highly correlated hazards as extreme temperatures play a key role in both occurrences. This commonality can influence how civil protection and local responders deploy resources on the ground and could lead to an underestimation of potential impacts, as people could be less resilient when exposed to multiple hazards. In this work, we provide a simple methodology to identify areas prone to concurrent hazards, exemplified with, but not limited to, heat stress and fire danger. We use the combined heat and forest fire event that affected Europe in June 2017 to demonstrate that the methodology can be used for analysing past events as well as making predictions, by using reanalysis and medium-range weather forecasts, respectively. We present new spatial layers that map the combined danger and make suggestions on how these could be used in the context of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System. These products could be particularly valuable in disaster risk reduction and emergency response management, particularly for civil protection, humanitarian agencies and other first responders whose role is to identify priorities during pre-interventions and emergencies.

Asunto(s)