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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employs emission scenarios to explore a range of future climate outcomes but refrains from assigning probabilities to individual scenarios. However, IPCC authors have their own views on the likelihood of different climate outcomes, which are valuable to understand because authors possess both expert insight and considerable influence. Here we report the results of a survey of 211 IPCC authors about the likelihood of four key climate outcomes. We found that most authors are skeptical that warming will be limited to the Paris targets of well below 2 °C, but are more optimistic that net zero CO2 emissions will be reached during the second half of this century. When asked about the beliefs of their peers, author responses showed strong correlations between personal and peer beliefs, suggesting that participants with extreme beliefs perceive their own estimates as closer to the community average than they actually are.

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Aquaculture has the potential to support a sustainable and equitable food system in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) on food security, climate change, and biodiversity (FCB). Biological diversity amongst aquaculture organisms can drive diverse contributions to such goals. Existing studies have assessed the performance of a limited number of taxa in the general context of improving aquaculture production, but few explicitly consider the biological attributes of farmed aquatic taxa at the FCB nexus. Through a systematic literature review, we identify key traits associated with FCB and evaluate the potential of aquaculture to contribute to FCB goals using a fuzzy logic model. The majority of identified traits are associated with food security, and two-thirds of traits linked with food security are also associated with climate change or biodiversity, revealing potential co-benefits of optimizing a single trait. Correlations between FCB indices further suggest that challenges and opportunities in aquaculture are intertwined across FCB goals, but low mean FCB scores suggest that the focus of aquaculture research and development on food production is insufficient to address food security, much less climate or biodiversity issues. As expected, production-maximizing traits (absolute fecundity, the von Bertalanffy growth function coefficient K, macronutrient density, maximum size, and trophic level as a proxy for feed efficiency) highly influence a species' FCB potential, but so do species preferences for environmental conditions (tolerance to phosphates, nitrates, and pH levels, as well as latitudinal and geographic ranges). Many highly farmed species that are typically associated with food security, especially finfish, score poorly for food, climate, and biodiversity potential. Algae and mollusc species tend to perform well across FCB indices, revealing the importance of non-fish species in achieving FCB goals and potential synergies in integrated multi-trophic aquaculture systems. Overall, this study provides decision-makers with a biologically informed assessment of desirable aquaculture traits and species while illuminating possible strategies to increase support for FCB goals. Our findings can be used as a foundation for studying the socio-economic opportunities and barriers for aquaculture transitions to develop equitable pathways toward FCB-positive aquaculture across nuanced regional contexts.

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Abamectin, the mixture of avermectin B1a and B1b, is widely used as a bioinsecticide and is an alternative to chemical pest control from insects. To our knowledge, its behaviour is not fully recognized, especially in herbs. Thus, the objective of this study was to investigate the environmental fate of abamectin in herbal plants belonging to the Lamiaceae family, its dissipation in open field studies laboratory processing treatments and dietary risk assessment. Three medicinally and culinary important species of herbs: Melissa officinalis L., Mentha × piperita L. and Salvia L. were treated with single and double dose than recommended on the label during their cultivation (BBCH 11-29). Residues were monitored using the QuEChERS method followed by the LC-MS/MS. The dissipation pattern of the sum of avermectin B1a and B1b and their persistence were observed 14 d after spraying. Abamectin decline was very rapid in plants and followed the first-order kinetics model. The half-life (t1/2) was in the range of 0.96-1.08 d (single dose) and 0.93-1.02 d (double dose). The pre-harvest intervals (decrease to the level of 0.01 mg kg-1) were 7.29-7.92 d at single and 7.99-8.64 d at double dose application. Herbal infusion preparation in previously washed and dried mint, lemon balm and sage leaves was the key processing step in the removal of abamectin residues. The reduction of initial deposits after single dose treatment was noted up to 65% (PF = 0.35-0.67) and up to 79% after double dose application (PF = 0.21-0.72) in herbal tea. Acute risk assessment of children and adults for the highest residues in EFSA PRIMo model at single and double dose expressed as hazard quotients (HQ) were <1, indicating no risk to humans via consumption of the herbal products. The data provide a better understanding of abamectin behaviour in herbal plants and can help assure herbs' safety for consumers.

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Urban agriculture is the key to creating healthy cities and developing resilient urban food systems in uncertain times. However, relevant empirical evidence is limited. This study quantitatively verified the association of access to local food through urban agriculture with subjective well-being, physical activity, and food security concerns of neighborhood communities in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The target was Tokyo, Japan, where small-scale local food systems are widespread in walkable neighborhoods. We found that diversity in local food access, ranging from self-cultivation to direct-to-consumer sales, was significantly associated with health and food security variables. In particular, the use of allotment farms was more strongly associated with subjective well-being than the use of urban parks, and it was more strongly associated with the mitigation of food security concerns than the use of food retailers. These findings provide robust evidence for the effectiveness of integrating urban agriculture into walkable neighborhoods.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted lives and the economy, reminding the global community of the devastating health and economic impacts of uncontrolled infectious disease. It has affected how and where people live, work, shop, and play, and exposed our cities' vulnerabilities, leading to calls for a health lens to be applied in designing, approving, and evaluating city plans. Socioeconomic, spatial and health inequities have been amplified, particularly for those living in inadequate or poorly designed housing, neighbourhoods, and cities. Hence, city mayors have committed to 'build back better' with all daily living amenities within a 15-min walking or cycling trip. Designed well, these cities have the potential to be healthier, more sustainable, equitable, and resilient. Yet their delivery requires a rethink of city planning. Drawing on lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, we argue that to reduce the risk of future pandemics, we must mitigate climate change, limit urban expansion, and use nature-based solutions to protect natural habitats and biodiversity. We then explore how healthy, sustainable, and resilient 15-minute cities could be planned to reduce emissions and ensure our cities are more resilient in the event of future crises. Given that higher density housing underpins the success of 15-minute cities, we also examine how to create more resilient housing stock, through well-implemented health-supportive apartment design standards. Finally, we argue that to achieve all this, cross-sector leadership and investment will be vital.

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Developing ecotourism services is a suitable solution to help developing countries improve the status of sustainable development indicators and protect their environment. The primary purpose of this paper is to find out the effects of green governance variables and carbon dioxide emissions on ecotourism for 40 developing economies from 2010 to 2021. The results confirmed a uni-directional causal relationship between the green governance indicator and the inflation rate of the ecotourism indicator. In addition, with a 1% improvement in the green governance index of developing countries, the ecotourism of these countries will increase by 0.43%. In comparison, with a 1% increase in the globalization index of these countries, ecotourism will increase by 0.32%. Moreover, ecotourism in developing countries is more sensitive to macroeconomic variables changes than in developed economies. Geopolitical risk is an influential factor in the developing process of ecotourism. The practical policies recommended by this research are developing the green financing market, establishing virtual tourism, granting green loans to small and medium enterprises, and government incentives to motivate active businesses.

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[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1057/s41599-023-01655-5.].

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Commerce, as both an environmental and a social factor, is essential to the study of the causes of urban crimes. This paper aims to comprehensively propose research hypotheses based on these two types of commercial factors and optimise statistical tools with which to analyse commerce's impact on the level of theft in Beijing. Combining criminal verdicts, census data, points of interest, and information on nighttime lighting, this paper first applies a hierarchical regression model to verify the effectiveness of using commercial environmental and social factors to explain theft statistics and then constructs a structural equation model to analyse the joint influence of multiple commercial factors on those statistics. This paper finds that Beijing's commerce does not significantly promote theft, verifies the effectiveness of two types of commercial variables and the corresponding Western theories in explaining commerce's impact on theft in Beijing, and provides empirical data for the study of the causes of theft in a non-Western context.

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The local communities living around national parks or areas like World Heritage Site (WHS) are crucial stakeholders to such settings. Their well-being needs to be unraveled so that the holistic management of the national park is in good condition to stabilize its status as WHS through the support and empowerment of the community. Numerous studies have been conducted on the biodiversity and geology of Gunung Mulu National Park (GMNP), but the community psychology aspect that is the foundation of conservation efforts has not been addressed. Therefore, this study aims to examine the community well-being dimensions in terms of environment, economics, social aspects as well as authority intervention based on the perspective of the local community and professionals with an emphasis on the current issues in GMNP. Quantitative and qualitative approaches were used in this study through a questionnaire to 99 local communities, and individual interviews that were conducted in GMNP and four nearby villages. Data were analyzed descriptively with four themes: environment; economics; social; and authority intervention. The findings showed that locals were satisfied in residing area in terms of environmental conditions. However, it does not reflect the actual situation, i.e., river water cloudiness, wildlife threat, degradation of wetlands, and solid waste issues are still happening. The constraints of the COVID-19 pandemic portrayed that they were very dissatisfied with their monthly income, which is very low compared to before. In terms of social, the services and facilities, especially treated water and electricity need improvement. It also noted that authority intervention especially related to road proposal, financial and skills assistance, and community conflicts could influence locals' support for the planning and policies implemented in the national parks or WHS areas. This study suggests that relevant stakeholders should emphasize bottom-up approaches by considering aspects of community well-being that stem from multiple dimensions in order to achieve holistic national park management.

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Narratives and stories are important communication tools and as such essential subjects of social geography. This paper analyses the retelling of Greta Thunberg's sailing trip across the Atlantic to the Climate Action Summit in New York in 2019 in leading German newspapers and magazines and how her intentions are transformed through this reporting into different narratives. The research mainly focuses on examining the influence of space and place, as geographical research has revealed that spatial determinants are crucial in risk communication and knowledge generation on climate change but have yet to be studied considering stories. The paper, therefore, extends the story-based approach from communication sciences by geographical research on the role of space and place in action-based stories. Therefore, the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) is used to decode the spatial environment in narratives as an active element that shapes the narrative, and the way characters can (inter)act within these settings. The paper further develops the NPF framework through a geographical lens by focusing particularly on the selection options of spaces for social interactions and affective bonds. Thus, it becomes evident how spatial contexts and environments shape the interactions between individuals and crucially influence the types of narratives that emerge.

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Policy analysis provides multiple methods and tools for generating and transforming policy-relevant information and supporting policy evolution to address emerging social problems. In this study, a bibliometric analysis of a large number of studies on historical policy analysis was performed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the distribution and evolution of policy problems in different fields among countries. The analysis indicates that policy analysis has been a great concern for scholars in recent two decades, and is involved in multiple disciplines, among which the dominant ones are medicine, environment, energy and economy. The major concerns of policy analysts and scholars are human health needs, environmental pressures, energy consumption caused by economic growth and urbanization, and the resulting demand for sustainable development. The multidisciplinary dialog implies the complicated real-world social problems that calls for more endeavors to develop a harmonious society. A global profiling for policy analysis demonstrates that the central policy problems and the corresponding options align with national development, for example, developing countries represented by China are faced with greater environmental pressures after experiencing extensive economic growth, while developed countries such as the USA and the UK pay more attention to the social issues of health and economic transformation. Exploring the differences in policy priorities among countries can provide a new inspiration for further dialog and cooperation on the development of the international community in the future.

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The review briefly describes various types of infrared (IR) and Raman spectroscopy methods. At the beginning of the review, the basic concepts of biological methods of environmental monitoring, namely bioanalytical and biomonitoring methods, are briefly considered. The main part of the review describes the basic principles and concepts of vibration spectroscopy and microspectrophotometry, in particular IR spectroscopy, mid- and near-IR spectroscopy, IR microspectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy, resonance Raman spectroscopy, Surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy, and Raman microscopy. Examples of the use of various methods of vibration spectroscopy for the study of biological samples, especially in the context of environmental monitoring, are given. Based on the described results, the authors conclude that the near-IR spectroscopy-based methods are the most convenient for environmental studies, and the relevance of the use of IR and Raman spectroscopy in environmental monitoring will increase with time.

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Capital monopolized platforms that have emerged based on the new "Internet Plus" economic form will undoubtedly distort market competition. Taking the Meituan online food delivery platform in China as an example, this study (1) investigates the game of interests between the platform and restaurants and the resulting impact on food safety risks, and (2) explores the interactions among government regulations, platform profit strategy, and restaurant behavior. An evolutionary game model between the capital-monopolized online food delivery platform and the restaurants was developed with an optional promotion fee and government regulation level as variables. Analysis of four equilibrium situations derived from the evolutionary game model showed that the platform always pursued high overall profit in every equilibrium situation. This capitalist profit-seeking behavior will most likely reduce the profit margins and even the survival space of restaurants on the platform, forcing them to engage in opportunistic behavior and illegal production, thereby resulting in increased food safety risks in online food delivery and consequently increased government regulation costs. Although increased government regulation can change the production strategy of restaurants, it cannot change the platform's capitalist profit-seeking behavior. The platform's overall payoff is not reduced due to increased regulation, which once again proves the profit-seeking nature of capital. The strategy of low commissions but high promotion fees may require greater government regulation to restrain the opportunistic behavior of restaurants. Therefore, the Chinese government regulators can achieve a win-win situation of improved government regulation efficiency and reduced regulation costs by designing new regulatory strategies that do not reduce the platform's overall payoff.

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The enforced lockdowns and social distancing measures associated with COVID-19 may have influenced older adults' preferences towards their homes and neighborhoods as well as social spaces. One objective of this research is to determine whether home and neighborhood environments ("first place") affect how satisfied older adults are with their lives during the epidemic. This study also examined the extent to which social spaces that exist in the virtual world ("online third places") affect older adults' life satisfaction when they would have to practice risk-averse behaviors in times of pandemic. To collect data, this study analyzed the responses of 500 active older adults and conducted in-depth interviews with seven older adults who served as neighborhood leaders in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The study found that there is a direct relationship between older adults' satisfaction with their current housing and their overall life satisfaction during the pandemic. Similarly, having a quality neighborhood nearby increases the likelihood of living a satisfied life during the pandemic. Most online third parties, with the exception of instant messaging apps, do not appear to provide older adults with an adequate platform to interact with their friends, participate in social networking, and join communities for emotional support during the pandemic. The findings and recommendations of this study would be very useful in developing effective interventions to promote aging in place during the coronavirus outbreak.

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How do the impacts of acute crises influence citizens' willingness to support different types of climate measures? An acute crisis can be understood either as an impediment or as an opportunity for climate change mitigation. In the first perspective, crisis impacts would create negative spill-overs and dampen citizens' willingness to support climate action, while in the second perspective, the opposite would occur. Based on a survey experiment fielded in Germany in 2022 (n = 5438), we find that the economic implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War do not decrease behavioral willingness, while restrictions of civil liberties to combat the COVID-19 pandemic lead to higher climate support, underpinning the crisis-as-opportunity perspective. Willingness to support climate measures is strongest among (1) those most concerned about climate change, and (2) those who trust the government. We conclude that individuals do not wish climate change mitigation to be deprioritized on the back of other crises.

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This paper presents an analysis of the content and spatial distribution of heavy metals (HM) in street dust in Suwalki, a city located in northeastern Poland. The HM content of street dust was also evaluated using the geochemical index (Igeo), enrichment factor (EF), and contamination factor (CF), and local HM sources were identified using chemometric methods. The arithmetic averages of HM contents in dust arranged in the following order: Fe > Zn > Mn > Cu > Cr > Ni > Pb, were 11,692.80, 215.97, 194.78, 142.84, 63.59, 17.50, 17.04 mg∙kg-1, respectively. Higher values than the local background occurred for Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn and Pb. The values of Igeo, CF, and EF indicate that the highest pollution in dust is due to Zn and Cu. The spatial distribution of metals was evaluated using maps of HM content in road dust samples from Suwalki. The spatial distribution of HM showed areas with high contents of Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn and Pb located mainly in the central and eastern parts of the city. In these areas, high traffic volume, the presence of shopping centers, administrative buildings and bus stops dominate. Statistical models of multivariate analysis (FA) and cluster analysis (CA) identified two sources of HM. The first source of pollution was associated with local industrial activity and motor vehicle travel, and the second with natural sources.

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As the climate targets tighten and countries are impacted by several crises, understanding how and under which conditions carbon dioxide emissions peak and start declining is gaining importance. We assess the timing of emissions peaks in all major emitters (1965-2019) and the extent to which past economic crises have impacted structural drivers of emissions contributing to emission peaks. We show that in 26 of 28 countries that have peaked emissions, the peak occurred just before or during a recession through the combined effect of lower economic growth (1.5 median percentage points per year) and decreasing energy and/or carbon intensity (0.7) during and after the crisis. In peak-and-decline countries, crises have typically magnified pre-existing improvements in structural change. In non-peaking countries, economic growth was less affected, and structural change effects were weaker or increased emissions. Crises do not automatically trigger peaks but may strengthen ongoing decarbonisation trends through several mechanisms.

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Socio-ecology studies the relationships between human activities and natural systems and their importance in management and public policy. Our objective was to analyse how published papers in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) perform socio-ecological studies and compare them between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. To do this, we used the Scopus platform as a source for searching and obtaining scientific papers about socio-ecological studies conducted in countries from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We calculated the number (n) of papers published per year and classified them using the main subject areas of the SCImago Journal & Country Rank database. Then, we analysed whether papers included specific recommendations for natural system management, nature conservation, policies or governance structures, or science in general. Besides, we studied whether the papers addressed socio-ecological studies related to flora and fauna and from what specific group of organisms or systems. Data were compared using the chi-square (χ 2) test (Pearson p < 0.005). A total of 467 papers were analysed, where 34% were from the Southern Hemisphere (mainly Argentina, Australia, Chile, and South Africa) and 66% from the Northern Hemisphere (mainly the USA, Canada, and Spain). The Northern Hemisphere (mainly North America and Europe) played a major role in the socio-ecological knowledge exchange than the Southern Hemisphere (South America and Africa). The results showed socio-ecological studies focused mainly on generating management recommendations in social and environmental science fields. The number of studies coming from the Northern Hemisphere was significantly higher than those from the Southern Hemisphere. Most of them were conducted at a local level (e.g., watersheds or human settlements) in three different systems (i) terrestrial (e.g., forests or grasslands), (ii) freshwater (e.g., rivers or streams) and (iii) marine (e.g., coastlines or seas). Most of the studies (70%) were conducted in production systems, where the majority included livestock (mainly bovine) and aquatic fisheries (e.g., salmon, artisanal coastal fishing, or trout). Most vegetation papers (65%) were on native forests. Papers on wildlife made up 30% of all animal-related studies, with mammals, birds, and marine invertebrates (such as collars) being the most extensively researched species. This work highlighted the socio-ecological approach that was used in the analysed countries with greater HDI to develop management options for natural systems.

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This exploratory study examines how three major Canadian newspapers-the Globe and Mail, the National Post, and the Toronto Star-reported on Alberta's bitumen industry throughout 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic introduced significant market volatility. Through a combination of computational text analysis and qualitative interpretation, the study identified four recurring themes in 685 articles published by the target newspapers: (1) contention over bitumen infrastructure, (2) economic challenges for the bitumen industry, (3) political divide over the future of bitumen, (4) the bitumen industry's environmental impacts. A further qualitative assessment of these themes indicates that despite the pandemic's exposure of the structural weaknesses underlying Canada's resource-dependent economy, voices supporting the bitumen industry continue to dominate Canadian mainstream newspapers.

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Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages - Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.