RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The U.S. population is aging and projected to undergo an increasing number of general surgical procedures. However, recent trends in the frequency of major abdominal procedures in older adults are currently unknown as improvements in non-operative interventions may obviate the need for major surgery. Thus, we evaluated the trends of major abdominal surgical procedures in older adults in the United States. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample from 2002 to 2014 with trend analysis using National Cancer Institute's Joinpoint Trend Analysis Software. We identified the average annual percent change (AAPC) in the yearly frequency of major abdominal surgical procedures in older adults (≥50 years of age). RESULTS: Our cohort included a total of 3,951,947 survey-weighted discharges that included a major abdominal surgery in adults ≥50 years of age between 2002 and 2014. Of these discharges, 2,529,507 (64.0%) were for elective abdominal surgeries, 2,062,835 (52.0%) were for female patients, and mean (SD) age was 61.4 (15.9) years. The frequency of major abdominal procedures (elective and emergent) decreased for adults aged 65-74 (AAPC: -1.43, -1.75, -1.11, p < 0.0001), 75-84 (AAPC: -2.75, -3.33, -2.16, p < 0.001), and ≥85 (AAPC: -4.07, -4.67, -3.47, p < 0.0001). The AAPC for elective procedures decreased for older adults aged 75-84 (AAPC = -1.65; -2.44, -0.85: p = 0.0001) and >85 (AAPC = -3.53; -4.57, -2.48: p < 0.0001). All age groups showed decreases in emergent procedures in 50-64 (AAPC = -1.76, -2.00, -1.52, p < 0.0001), 65-74 (AAPC = -3.59, -4.03, -3.14, p < 0.0001), 75-84 (AAPC = -3.90, -4.34, -3.46, p < 0.0001), ≥85 (AAPC = -4.58, -4.98, -4.17, p < 0.0001) age groups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort of older adults, the frequency of emergent and elective major abdominal procedures in adults ≥65 years of age decreased with significant variation among individual procedure types. Future studies are needed to identify the generalizability of our findings to other surgical procedures.
Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos del Sistema Digestivo/estadística & datos numéricos , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Electivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos del Sistema Digestivo/mortalidad , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Electivos/mortalidad , Femenino , Humanos , Tiempo de Internación/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: This study was designed to adapt the Elixhauser comorbidity index for 4 cancer-specific populations (breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal) and compare 3 versions of the Elixhauser comorbidity score (individual comorbidities, summary comorbidity score, and cancer-specific summary comorbidity score) with 3 versions of the Charlson comorbidity score for predicting 2-year survival with 4 types of cancer. METHODS: This cohort study used Texas Cancer Registry-linked Medicare data from 2005 to 2011 for older patients diagnosed with breast (n = 19,082), prostate (n = 23,044), lung (n = 26,047), or colorectal cancer (n = 16,693). For each cancer cohort, the data were split into training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, competing risk regression was used to model the association of Elixhauser comorbidities with 2-year noncancer mortality, and cancer-specific weights were derived for each comorbidity. In the validation cohort, competing risk regression was used to compare 3 versions of the Elixhauser comorbidity score with 3 versions of the Charlson comorbidity score. Model performance was evaluated with c statistics. RESULTS: The 2-year noncancer mortality rates were 14.5% (lung cancer), 11.5% (colorectal cancer), 5.7% (breast cancer), and 4.1% (prostate cancer). Cancer-specific Elixhauser comorbidity scores (c = 0.773 for breast cancer, c = 0.772 for prostate cancer, c = 0.579 for lung cancer, and c = 0.680 for colorectal cancer) performed slightly better than cancer-specific Charlson comorbidity scores (ie, the National Cancer Institute combined index; c = 0.762 for breast cancer, c = 0.767 for prostate cancer, c = 0.578 for lung cancer, and c = 0.674 for colorectal cancer). Individual Elixhauser comorbidities performed best (c = 0.779 for breast cancer, c = 0.783 for prostate cancer, c = 0.587 for lung cancer, and c = 0.687 for colorectal cancer). CONCLUSIONS: The cancer-specific Elixhauser comorbidity score performed as well as or slightly better than the cancer-specific Charlson comorbidity score in predicting 2-year survival. If the sample size permits, using individual Elixhauser comorbidities may be the best way to control for confounding in cancer outcomes research. Cancer 2018;124:2018-25. © 2018 American Cancer Society.