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Background: The progression of scoliosis has been observed in skeletally mature patients with cerebral palsy (CP). The aims of this systematic review were to determine the incidence of curve progression of untreated scoliosis after skeletal maturity, to estimate the average annual increase and to identify factors that influence the progression. Methods: A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library for original research articles published between 1968 and May 2024 with a retrospective, prospective or cross-sectional design, investigating CP patients that were followed up beyond the age of 15 years. The search was limited to articles in English, French, German and Dutch. Articles were excluded if the study population concerned neuromuscular diseases other than CP. After an assessment of the methodological quality of each study, estimates of annual curve progression and the effect of the investigated risk factors for progression were recorded systematically and synthetized. Results: Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria, resulting in a total sample size of 2569 participants. The study populations of the included original research articles were small and heterogeneous in terms of patient age and the type and severity of CP. Curve progression after skeletal maturity occurred in all included studies. A greater curve magnitude at the end of adolescence and a severe motor deficit (an inability to walk or GMFCS IV-V) were identified as significant risk factors for the progression of scoliosis after skeletal maturity. If at least one of these risk factors was present, scoliotic curves progressed after skeletal maturity in up to 74% of patients, with an average annual increase of 1.4 to 3.5 degrees per year. No significant association was found between curve progression and the physiologic type of CP, the type of scoliotic curve, previous hip surgery, positioning and gravity, weight and length, sex, epilepsy, or pelvic obliquity. Findings on the effect of hip instability were inconsistent: a positive correlation was found with the progression of scoliosis overall, but not after skeletal maturity in particular. A significant selection bias should be considered in the calculation of average annual curve progression, as patients that received interventions to halt curve progression were excluded from follow-up. Conclusions: The identification of risk factors in patients with CP and scoliosis can aid in predicting curve progression and managing follow-ups in clinical practice. Based on the findings in this review a radiographic follow-up once every 3 years is recommended for skeletally mature CP patients with at least one risk factor, and once every 5 years if no risk factors are present.

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PURPOSE: To define the risk of curve progression of idiopathic scoliosis (IS) to 35°, 40°, 45°, and 50° based on current curve magnitude and Sanders stage for boys and girls, using a large cohort of patients and encounters, to improve granularity and allow more accurate estimations to guide treatment. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected scoliosis database. Generalized estimation equation logistic regression models estimated probabilities of curve progression to 35°, 40°, 45°, and 50° based on starting curve size and Sanders stage. Probabilities and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each combination of variables to each endpoint separately for boys and girls. RESULTS: A total of 309 patients (80% girls) were included. Starting curve size and Sanders stage were significant predictors for progression in both sexes (all P ≤ 0.04). Higher starting curve sizes and lower Sanders stages were associated with greater odds of progression. Risk of progression was still present even at higher Sanders stages. CONCLUSION: IS curves follow a predictable pattern, having more risk for progression when curves are larger and Sanders stages are smaller. Risk of curve progression is a spectrum based on these factors, indicating some risk of progression exists even for many smaller curves with higher Sanders stages. The improved granularity of this analysis compared to prior efforts may be useful for counseling patients about the risks of curve progression to various curve size endpoints and may aid shared decision-making regarding treatments. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE OR CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Level III: retrospective cohort study.

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Accurate prediction of scoliotic curve progression is crucial for guiding treatment decisions in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Traditional methods of assessing the likelihood of AIS progression are limited by variability and rely on static measurements. This study developed and validated machine learning models for classifying progressive and non-progressive scoliotic curves based on gait analysis using wearable inertial sensors. Gait data from 38 AIS patients were collected using seven inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensors, and hip-knee (HK) cyclograms representing inter-joint coordination were generated. Various machine learning algorithms, including support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and novel deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) models utilizing multi-plane HK cyclograms, were developed and evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation. The DCNN model incorporating multi-plane HK cyclograms and clinical factors achieved an accuracy of 92% in predicting curve progression, outperforming SVM (55% accuracy) and RF (52% accuracy) models using handcrafted gait features. Gradient-based class activation mapping revealed that the DCNN model focused on the swing phase of the gait cycle to make predictions. This study demonstrates the potential of deep learning techniques, and DCNNs in particular, in accurately classifying scoliotic curve progression using gait data from wearable IMU sensors.

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BACKGROUND: Prior reviews investigating the impact of pregnancy on adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) have reached different conclusions and a meta-analysis of curve progression among pregnant females with AIS and its effects on clinical outcomes has not previously been performed. METHODS: A comprehensive search of major bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, and Scopus) was conducted for articles pertaining to spinal curve progression during pregnancy among patients with AIS. Patient demographics, scoliotic curve outcomes, and patient-reported quality of life measures were extracted. RESULTS: Ten studies, including 857 patients with a mean age of 28.7 years, were included. Before pregnancy, 42.1% had undergone spinal fusion and 59.0% had a thoracic curve. Based on prepregnancy and postpregnancy radiographs, the curve increased from 33.9°-38.5°, and meta-analysis revealed a curve progression of 3.6° (range = -5.85 to 1.25, P = 0.003), primarily arising from loss of correction in the unfused group (Unfused = -5.0, P = 0.040; Fused = -3.0, P = 0.070). At the same time, 45.9% patients reported increased low back pain and many reported a negative body self-image and limitations in sexual function. However, 5 studies noted that pregnancy and number of pregnancies were not associated with curve progression, and multiple studies identified similar quality of life-related changes in non-pregnant patients with AIS. CONCLUSIONS: Among unfused pregnant females with AIS, the spinal curvature increased significantly by 5.0° from before to after pregnancy. However, these changes may be independent of pregnancy status and occur with time. Such curve progression can contribute to a negative body self-image, low back pain, and functional limitations irrespective of pregnancy state.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of patient-tailored 3D printed brace in the treatment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), and to compare the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients treated with 2 different types of brace. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From September 2017 to August 2020, 103 AIS patients requiring non-operative management were prospectively recruited in this study. All patients were followed up every 6 months, clinical and radiologic examination were assessed at each follow-up time. Full-length anteroposterior radiographs of the spine in the standing position were obtained. At the last follow-up, each patient completed a standardized HRQoL questionnaire. Compliance is defined as that the patient insists on wearing the brace for ≥23 hours every day (full-time wearing) and follow-up every 6 months until bone maturity. The rate of major curve Cobb progression was defined that maximum Cobb angle of major curve greater than 6° compared with that at the initial diagnosis, or aggravated to more than 45° so that orthopedic surgery was recommended during treatment, which was defined as the rate of conversion to surgery. The effects of these 2 types of braces on the rate of major curve Cobb progression and HRQoL were analyzed by independent sample t test and χ2 test. RESULTS: The thickness was 4 mm for thoracolumbosacral orthosis (TLSO) and 3 mm for 3D-printed brace (3DPB). In addition, compared with the material used in TLSO, the weight (600-800 g) of the 3DPB materials with the same area is reduced by about 25% to 30%. In our sample, 55 patients (49.1%) and 48 patients (33.1%) were respectively included in the 3DPB cohort and the TLSO cohort. The maximum Cobb angle of major curve in the 3DPB cohort was significantly lower than those in the TLSO cohort at 6 months, 12 months, and the last follow-up (P < 0.01). The thoracic kyphosis (TK) and lumbar lordosis (LL) of the 2 cohorts at the last follow-up were lower than those before brace treatment, in addition, there was a significant difference in TK (P = 0.001) and LL (P = 0.004) between the 2 cohorts at the follow-up. The scores of physical function, pain, self-image, mental health, and treatment satisfaction in the Chinese version of the 22-item questionnaire of the Scoliosis Research Society in the 3DPB cohort were higher than those in the TLSO cohort (P < 0.01 and P < 0.05, respectively). The scores of the 3DPB cohort were significantly higher than those of the TLSO group in the 4 dimensions (P = 0.008, 0.013, 0.015, and 0.002, respectively) of the EuroQol-5D health description system except for mobility, and the overall health status of EuroQol-5D was higher for the 3DPB cohort (P < 0.001). At the last follow-up, 1 patient in the 3DPB cohort and 10 patients in the TLSO cohort had major curve Cobb progression of greater than 6°, and the rate of major curve Cobb progression in the 3DPB cohort was significantly lower than that in the TLSO cohort (OR 14.2, 95% CI 1.7∼115.8, P < 0.01). One patient in the 3DPB and 7 patients in the TLSO cohorts received subsequent surgery or were recommended for surgery, and the rate of conversion to surgery was significantly lower than in the 3DPB cohort (OR 9.2, 95% CI 1.1∼77.9, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A patient-tailored 3D-printed brace is lighter, thinner, and more comfortable than conventional braces in the treatment of AIS. It can substantially improve the HRQoL of patients and can significantly reduce the progression of major curve Cobb progression and rate of conversion of surgery.

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Low bone mineral density and impaired bone quality have been shown to be important prognostic factors for curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). There is no evidence-based integrative interpretation method to analyze high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) data in AIS. This study aimed to (1) utilize unsupervised machine learning to cluster bone microarchitecture phenotypes on HR-pQCT parameters in girls with AIS, (2) assess the phenotypes' risk of curve progression and progression to surgical threshold at skeletal maturity (primary cohort), and (3) investigate risk of curve progression in a separate cohort of girls with mild AIS whose curve severity did not reach bracing threshold at recruitment (secondary cohort). Patients were followed up prospectively for 6.22 ± 0.33 years in the primary cohort (n = 101). Three bone microarchitecture phenotypes were clustered by fuzzy C-means at time of peripubertal peak height velocity (PHV). Phenotype 1 had normal bone characteristics. Phenotype 2 was characterized by low bone volume and high cortical bone density, and phenotype 3 had low cortical and trabecular bone density and impaired trabecular microarchitecture. The difference in bone quality among the phenotypes was significant at peripubertal PHV and continued to skeletal maturity. Phenotype 3 had significantly increased risk of curve progression to surgical threshold at skeletal maturity (odd ratio [OR] = 4.88; 95% CI, 1.03-28.63). In the secondary cohort (n = 106), both phenotype 2 (adjusted OR = 5.39; 95% CI, 1.47-22.76) and phenotype 3 (adjusted OR = 3.67; 95% CI, 1.05-14.29) had increased risk of curve progression ≥6° with mean follow-up of 3.03 ± 0.16 years. In conclusion, 3 distinct bone microarchitecture phenotypes could be clustered by unsupervised machine learning on HR-pQCT-generated bone parameters at peripubertal PHV in AIS. The bone quality reflected by these phenotypes was found to have significant differentiating risk of curve progression and progression to surgical threshold at skeletal maturity in AIS.

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is an abnormal spinal curvature that commonly presents during puberty growth. Evidence has shown that low bone mineral density and impaired bone quality are important risk factors for curve progression in AIS. High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) has improved our understanding of bone quality in AIS. It generates a large amount of quantitative and qualitative bone parameters from a single measurement, but the data are not easy for clinicians to interpret and analyze. This study enrolled girls with AIS and used an unsupervised machine-learning model to analyze their HR-pQCT data at the first clinic visit. The model clustered the patients into 3 bone microarchitecture phenotypes (ie, phenotype 1: normal; phenotype 2: low bone volume and high cortical bone density; and phenotype 3: low cortical and trabecular bone density and impaired trabecular microarchitecture). They were longitudinally followed up for 6 years until skeletal maturity. We observed the 3 phenotypes were persistent and phenotype 3 had a significantly increased risk of curve progression to severity that requires invasive spinal surgery (odds ratio = 4.88, p = .029). The difference in bone quality reflected by these 3 distinct phenotypes could aid clinicians to differentiate risk of curve progression and surgery at early stages of AIS.

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Background: The implications of delaying surgical intervention for patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) wishing to undergo vertebral body tethering (VBT) have not yet been explored. It is important to understand how these delays can impact surgical planning and patient outcomes. Methods: This was a retrospective review that analyzed all AIS patients treated between 2015 and 2021 at a single tertiary center. Time to surgery from initial surgical consultation and ultimate surgical plan were assessed. Patient characteristics, potential risk factors associated with increased curve progression, and reasons for delay were also analyzed. Results: 174 patients were evaluated and 95 were scheduled for VBT. Four patients later required a change to posterior spinal fusion (PSF) due to excessive curve progression. Patients requiring PSF were shown to have significantly longer delays than those who received VBT. Additionally, longer delays, younger age, greater curve progression, and lower skeletal maturity were correlated with significant curve progression (≥5 degrees). Conclusions: Surgical delays for AIS patients awaiting VBT may lead to significant curve progression and necessitate more invasive procedures. Patients with longer delays experienced an increased risk of needing PSF instead of VBT. Of those requiring PSF, the majority were due to insurance denials. Optimizing surgical timing and shared decision-making among patients, families, and healthcare providers are essential for achieving the best outcomes.

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Objectives: (1) Compare the cross-sectional thickness (CST) and shear wave speed (SWS) of paraspinal muscles (PSM) in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) with and without curve progression; (2) investigate the relationship between CST/SWS and radiographic characteristics in AIS with curve progression; (3) compare the CST/SWS between AIS and non-scoliosis controls. Methods: This cross-sectional study analyzed the CST and SWS of PSM in 48 AIS with mild to moderate curvature and 24 non-scoliosis participants. Participants with scoliosis greater than 45° of Cobb angles were excluded. The Change of Cobb angles within the last 6-months was retrieved to allocate AIS into progression and non-progression groups. The SWS and CST of multifidus; longissimus and iliocostalis of the major curve were measured using B-mode ultrasound image with an elastography mode. Discrepancies of the SWS (SWS-ratio: SWS on the convex side divided by SWS on the concave side) and CST (CST-ratio: CST on the convex side divided by CST on the concave side) at the upper/lower end and apical vertebrae were studied. Results: A higher SWS at the apical vertebrae on the concave side of the major curve (multifidus: 3.9 ± 1.0 m/s vs. 3.1 ± 0.6 m/s; p < 0.01, longissimus: 3.3 ± 1.0 m/s vs. 3.0 ± 0.9 m/s; p < 0.01, iliocostalis: 2.8 ± 1.0 m/s vs. 2.5 ± 0.8 m/s; p < 0.01) was observed in AIS with curve progression. A lower SWS-ratio at apical vertebrae was detected with a greater vertebral rotation in participants with curve progression (multifidus [grade II]: 0.7 ± 0.1 vs. grade I: 0.9 ± 0.2; p = 0.03, longissimus [grade II]: 0.8 ± 0.2 vs. grade I: 1.1 ± 0.2; p < 0.01). CST was not different among the progressive, non-progressive AIS and non-scoliosis controls. Conclusions: Increased SWS of PSM without change of CST was observed on the concave side of the major curve in participants with progressive AIS.

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Introduction: Bracing is one of the first-line treatment for early-onset idiopathic scoliosis (EOIS) to control curves from progression. This study aimed to explore the determinants that govern bracing effectiveness in EOIS. Methods: One hundred and eleven patients with EOIS (mean age of 8.6 ± 1.25 at diagnosis) received bracing treatment and had a final follow-up beyond skeletal maturity were identified from records between 1988 and 2021. Demographic data and clinical features of spinal curvature were obtained for correlation analyses to determine the associations between curve outcomes and clinical features. Results: Most patients were female (85.6%) and had a major curve on the left side (67%). The mean baseline Cobb angle of major curves was 21.73 ± 7.92°, with a mean Cobb angle progression of 18.05 ± 19.11°. The average bracing duration was 5.3 ± 1.9 years. Only 26 (23.4%) of them underwent surgery. The final Cobb angle and curve progression at the final follow-up with a Cobb angle of ≥50° were positively correlated with the initial Cobb angle (r = 0.206 and r = 0.313, respectively) and negatively correlated with maturity parameters. The lumbar curve type was found to correlate with a smaller final Cobb angle. Conclusions: The majority of patients had a final Cobb angle < 50°, which was considered a successful bracing outcome. The final Cobb angle correlated with the initial Cobb angle and curve types observed in EOIS.

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BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis requires clinical and radiographic evaluation; the management options vary depending on the severity of the curve and potential for progression. Identifying predictors of scoliosis progression is crucial to avoid incorrect management; clinical and radiographic factors have been studied as potential predictors. The present study aims to review the literature on radiological indexes for the peak height velocity or curve acceleration phase to help clinicians manage treatment of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. METHODS: This systematic review was carried out in accordance with Preferential Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The search was carried out including only peer-reviewed articles written in English that described the radiological indexes assessing skeletal maturity in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis and evaluated their correlation with curve progression, expressed as peak height velocity and/or curve acceleartion phase. RESULTS: Thirteen studies were included and showed promising results in terms of reliable radiological indexes. Risser staging gives a general measure of skeletal maturity, but it cannot be used as a primary index for driving the treatment of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis since more reliable indexes are available. CONCLUSION: Skeletal maturity quantification for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis has the potential to significantly modify disease management. However, idiopathic scoliosis is a complex and multifactorial disease: therefore, it is unlikely that a single index will ever be sufficient to predict its evolution. Therefore, as more adolescent idiopathic scoliosis progression-associated indexes are identified, a collective scientific effort should be made to develop a therapeutic strategy based on reliable and reproducible algorithms.

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BACKGROUND: To evaluate the sex-based differences in clinical and radiological presentation of patients with degenerative lumbar scoliosis (DLS) and to explore whether the difference is helpful in investigating the etiology and progression of DLS. METHOD: A retrospective review of 199 patients (41 males, 158 females) with DLS was included. Patient demographics including age, gender, bone mineral density were collected. Back and leg pain was assessed by visual analog scale, and general physical condition was assessed by Oswestry Disability Index. Cobb's angle was measured, and direction of scoliosis, position of the superior, inferior and apex vertebrae, number of vertebrae included in the scoliosis, rotation of apex vertebrae (Nash-Mo index), translation of apex vertebrae were recorded. Sagittal longitudinal axis, thoracolumbar kyphosis, lumbar lordosis (LL), pelvic incidence angle (PI), sacral slope, apex of lumbar lordosis and coronal balance distance were measured by whole spine lateral radiographs, and type of coronal imbalance was evaluated in all patients. Fat infiltration rate (FIR) of the paraspinal muscles at the vertebral apex was measured by MRI. RESULT: Compared to female patients, male patients showed more back and leg pain on clinical presentation and smaller Cobb angle, less parietal rotation, larger LL, smaller PI-LL and lower paravertebral muscle FIR on radiologic features. CONCLUSION: Gender differences do exist in DLS patients with regard to clinical and radiological presentation, low back pain was more pronounced in male patients, and scoliosis was more severe in female patients based on this cross-sectional study.

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Introduction: Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is characterized by deranged bone and muscle qualities, which are important prognostic factors for curve progression. This retrospective case-control study aims to investigate whether the baseline muscle parameters, in addition to the bone parameters, could predict curve progression in AIS. Methods: The study included a cohort of 126 female patients diagnosed with AIS who were between the ages of 12 and 14 years old at their initial clinical visit. These patients were longitudinally followed up every 6 months (average 4.08 years) until they reached skeletal maturity. The records of these patients were thoroughly reviewed as part of the study. The participants were categorized into two sub-groups: the progressive AIS group (increase in Cobb angle of ≥6°) and the stable AIS group (increase in Cobb angle <6°). Clinical and radiological assessments were conducted on each group. Results: Cobb angle increase of ≥6° was observed in 44 AIS patients (34.9%) prior to skeletal maturity. A progressive AIS was associated with decreased skeletal maturity and weight, lower trunk lean mass (5.7%, p = 0.027) and arm lean mass (8.9%, p < 0.050), weaker dominant handgrip strength (8.8%, p = 0.027), deranged cortical compartment [lower volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) by 6.5%, p = 0.002], and lower bone mechanical properties [stiffness and estimated failure load lowered by 13.2% (p = 0.005) and 12.5% (p = 0.004)]. The best cut-off threshold of maximum dominant handgrip strength is 19.75 kg for distinguishing progressive AIS from stable AIS (75% sensitivity and 52.4% specificity, p = 0.011). Discussion: Patients with progressive AIS had poorer muscle and bone parameters than patients with stable AIS. The implementation of a cut-off threshold in the baseline dominant handgrip strength could potentially be used as an additional predictor, in addition to bone parameters, for identifying individuals with AIS who are at higher risk of experiencing curve progression.

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PURPOSE: Risser stage is widely used as a marker for skeletal maturity (SM) and thereby an indirect measure for the risk of progression of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). The Scoliosis Research Society recommends bracing for Risser stages 0-2 as Risser stage 3 or above is considered low risk. Very few studies have assessed the risk of progression during bracing in Risser stages 3-4. The objective of the current study is to determine if Risser stages 3-4 provide a meaningful cutoff in terms of progression risk in patients with AIS treated with night-time bracing. METHODS: AIS patients treated with night-time brace from 2005 to 2018 with a Cobb angle between 25 and 40 degrees and Risser stages 0-4 were retrospectively included. Curve progression (> 5 degrees increase) was monitored until surgery or SM. Skeletal maturity was defined as either 2 years postmenarchal, no height development or closed ulnar epiphyseal plates on radiographs. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-five patients were included (Risser stages 0-2: n = 86 and 3-4: n = 49). Overall, radiographic curve progression occurred in 52% while progression beyond 45 degrees was seen in 35%. The progression rate in the Risser 0-2 group was 60% and 37% in the Risser 3-4 group (p = 0.012). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusted for Risser stages and age, only premenarchal status showed a statistically significant association with progression (OR: 2.68, 95%CI 1.08-6.67). CONCLUSION: Risser stage does not provide a clinically meaningful differentiation of progression risk in AIS patients treated with a night-time brace. Risk assessment should include other more reliable measures of skeletal growth potential.

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PURPOSE: Treatment selection for idiopathic scoliosis is informed by the risk of curve progression. Previous models predicting curve progression lacked validation, did not include the full growth/severity spectrum or included treated patients. The objective was to develop and validate models to predict future curve angles using clinical data collected only at, or both at and prior to, an initial specialist consultation in idiopathic scoliosis. METHODS: This is an analysis of 2317 patients with idiopathic scoliosis between 6 and 25 years old. Patients were previously untreated and provided at least one prior radiograph prospectively collected at first consult. Radiographs were re-measured blinded to the predicted outcome: the maximum Cobb angle on the last radiograph while untreated. Linear mixed-effect models were used to examine the effect of data from the first available visit (age, sex, maximum Cobb angle, Risser, and curve type) and from other visits while untreated (maximum Cobb angle) and time (from the first available radiograph to prediction) on the Cobb angle outcome. Interactions of the first available angle with time, of time with sex, and time with Risser were also tested. RESULTS: We included 2317 patients (83% of females) with 3255 prior X-rays where 71% had 1, 21.1% had 2, and 7.5% had 3 or more. Mean age was 13.9 ± 2.2yrs and 81% had AIS. Curve types were: 50% double, 26% lumbar/thoracolumbar-lumbar, 16% thoracic, and 8% other. Cobb angle at the first available X-ray was 20 ± 10° (0-80) vs 29 ± 13° (6-122) at the outcome visit separated by 28 ± 22mths. In the model using data at and prior to the specialist consult, larger values of the following variables predicted larger future curves: first available Cobb angle, Cobb angle on other previous X-ray, and time (with Time2 and Time3) to the target prediction. Larger values on the following variables predicted a smaller future Cobb angle: Risser and age at the first available X-ray, time*Risser and time*female sex interactions. Cross-validation found a median error of 4.5o with 84% predicted within 10°. Similarly, the model using only data from the first specialist consult had a median error of 5.5o with 80% of cases within 10° and included: maximum Cobb angle at first specialist consult, Time, Time2, age, curve type, and both interactions. CONCLUSIONS: The models can help clinicians predict how much curves would progress without treatment at future timepoints of their choice using simple variables. Predictions can inform treatment prescription or show families why no treatment is recommended. The nonlinear effects of time account for the rapid increase in curve angle at the beginning of growth and the slowed progression after maturity. These validated models predicted future Cobb angle with good accuracy in untreated idiopathic scoliosis over the full growth spectrum.

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PURPOSE: The proximal humeral epiphyses can be conveniently viewed in routine spine radiographs. This study aimed to investigate whether the proximal humeral epiphyseal ossification system (PHOS) can be used to determine the timing of brace weaning in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), as assessed by the rate of curve progression after brace weaning. METHODS: A total of 107 patients with AIS who had weaned brace-wear at Risser Stage ≥  4, no bodily growth and post-menarche ≥  2 years between 7/2014 and 2/2016 were studied. Increase in major curve Cobb angle > 5° between weaning and 2-year follow-up was considered curve progression. Skeletal maturity was assessed using the PHOS, distal radius and ulna (DRU) classification, Risser and Sanders staging. Curve progression rate per maturity grading at weaning was examined. RESULTS: After brace-wear weaning, 12.1% of the patients experienced curve progression. Curve progression rate for weaning at PHOS Stage 5 was 0% for curves < 40°, and 20.0% for curves ≥ 40°. No curve progression occurred when weaning at PHOS Stage 5 with radius grade of 10 for curves ≥ 40°. Factors associated with curve progression were: Months post-menarche (p = 0.021), weaning Cobb angle (p = 0.002), curves < 40° versus ≥ 40° (p = 0.009), radius (p = 0.006) and ulna (p = 0.025) grades, and Sanders stages (p = 0.025), but not PHOS stages (p = 0.454). CONCLUSION: PHOS can be a useful maturity indicator for brace-wear weaning in AIS, with PHOS Stage 5 having no post-weaning curve progression in curves < 40°. For large curves ≥ 40°, PHOS Stage 5 is also effective in indicating the timing of weaning together with radius grade ≥ 10.

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PURPOSE: Brace treatment is the most common nonoperative treatment to prevent curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). The goal of this review and analysis is to characterize curve behavior after completion of brace treatment and to identify factors that may facilitate the estimation of long-term curve progression. METHOD: A review of the English language literature was completed using the MEDLINE (PUBMED) database of publications after 1990 until September 2020. Studies were included if they detailed a minimum of 1 year post-brace removal follow-up of AIS patients. Data retrieved from the articles included Cobb angle measurements of the major curves at "in-brace," weaning, and follow-up visit(s) for all patients described and for subset populations. RESULTS: From 75 articles, 18 relevant studies describing a follow-up period of 1-25 years following brace removal were included in the analyses. The reviewed literature demonstrates that curves continue to progress after brace treatment is completed with three main phases of progression: (i) immediate (upon brace removal) where a mean curve progression of 7° occurs; (ii) short term (within five years of brace removal) where a relatively high progression rate is evident (0.8°/year); and (iii) long term (more than five years after brace removal) where the progression rate slows (0.2°/year). The magnitude and rate of curve progression is mainly dependent on the degree of curve at weaning as curves weaned at < 25° progress substantially less than curves weaned at ≥ 25° at 25 years. CONCLUSION: Curves continue to progress after brace removal and the rate and magnitude of progression are associated with the curve size at weaning, with larger curves typically exhibiting more rapid and severe progression. This analysis provides physicians and patients the ability to estimate long-term curve size based on the curve size at the time of weaning. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV.

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PURPOSE: This study describes the creation of patient-specific (PS) osteo-ligamentous finite element (FE) models of the spine, ribcage, and pelvis, simulation of up to three years of region-specific, stress-modulated growth, and validation of simulated curve progression with patient clinical angle measurements. RESEARCH QUESTION: Does the inclusion of region-specific, stress-modulated vertebral growth, in addition to scaling based on age, weight, skeletal maturity, and spine flexibility allow for clinically accurate scoliotic curve progression prediction in patient-specific FE models of the spine, ribcage, and pelvis? METHODS: Frontal, lateral, and lateral bending X-Rays of five AIS patients were obtained for approximately three-year timespans. PS-FE models were generated by morphing a normative template FE model with landmark points obtained from patient X-rays at the initial X-ray timepoint. Vertebral growth behavior and response to stress, as well as model material properties were made patient-specific based on several prognostic factors. Spine curvature angles from the PS-FE models were compared to the corresponding X-ray measurements. RESULTS: Average FE model errors were 6.3 ± 4.6°, 12.2 ± 6.6°, 8.9 ± 7.7°, and 5.3 ± 3.4° for thoracic Cobb, lumbar Cobb, kyphosis, and lordosis angles, respectively. Average error in prediction of vertebral wedging at the apex and adjacent levels was 3.2 ± 2.2°. Vertebral column stress ranged from 0.11 MPa in tension to 0.79 MPa in compression. CONCLUSION: Integration of region-specific stress-modulated growth, as well as adjustment of growth and material properties based on patient-specific data yielded clinically useful prediction accuracy while maintaining physiological stress magnitudes. This framework can be further developed for PS surgical simulation.

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STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of missed curve progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) undergoing brace treatment with only in-brace follow-up radiographs, and to provide recommendations on when in-brace and out-of-brace should be obtained during follow-up. METHODS: 133 patients who had documented clinically significant curve progression during brace treatment or only when an out-of-brace radiograph were studied. Of these, 95 patients (71.4%) had curve progression noted on in-brace radiographs while 38 patients (28.6%) showed curve progression only after brace removal. We analyzed differences in age, sex, curve types, Risser stage, months after menarche, standing out-of-brace Cobb angle, correction rate, and flexibility rate between the groups. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine factors contributing to curve progression missed during brace treatment. RESULTS: There were no differences in initial Cobb angle between out-of-brace and in-brace deterioration groups. However, the correction rate was higher (32.7% vs 25.0%; P = .004) in the in-brace deterioration group as compared to the out-of-brace deterioration group. A lower correction rate was more likely to result in out-of-brace deterioration (OR 0.970; P = .019). For thoracic curves, higher flexibility in the curves was more likely to result in out-of-brace deterioration (OR 1.055; P = .045). For double/triple curves, patients with in-brace deterioration had higher correction rate (OR 0.944; P = .034). CONCLUSIONS: Patients may develop curve progression despite good correction on in-brace radiographs. Those with higher flexibility and suboptimal brace fitting are at-risk. In-brace and out-of-brace radiographs should be taken alternately for brace treatment follow-up.

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PURPOSE: To create an updated and comprehensive overview of the modeling studies that have been done to understand the mechanics underlying deformities of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), to predict the risk of curve progression and thereby substantiate etiopathogenetic theories. METHODS: In this systematic review, an online search in Scopus and PubMed together with an analysis in secondary references was done, which yielded 86 studies. The modeling types were extracted and the studies were categorized accordingly. RESULTS: Animal modeling, together with machine learning modeling, forms the category of black box models. This category is perceived as the most clinically relevant. While animal models provide a tangible idea of the biomechanical effects in scoliotic deformities, machine learning modeling was found to be the best curve-progression predictor. The second category, that of artificial models, has, just as animal modeling, a tangible model as a result, but focusses more on the biomechanical process of the scoliotic deformity. The third category is formed by computational models, which are very popular in etiopathogenetic parameter-based studies. They are also the best in calculating stresses and strains on vertebrae, intervertebral discs, and other surrounding tissues. CONCLUSION: This study presents a comprehensive overview of the current modeling techniques to understand the mechanics of the scoliotic deformities, predict the risk of curve progression in AIS and thereby substantiate etiopathogenetic theories. Although AIS remains to be seen as a complex and multifactorial problem, the progression of its deformity can be predicted with good accuracy. Modeling of AIS develops rapidly and may lead to the identification of risk factors and mitigation strategies in the near future. The overview presented provides a basis to follow this development.

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RESUMEN

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a progressive deformity of the spine. Scoliotic curves progress until skeletal maturity leading, in rare cases, to a severe deformity. While the Cobb angle is a straightforward tool in initial curve magnitude measurement, assessing the risk of curve progression at the time of diagnosis may be more challenging. Epigenetic and genetic markers are potential prognostic tools to predict curve progression. The aim of this study is to review the available literature regarding the epigenetic and genetic factors associated with the risk of AIS curve progression. This review was carried out in accordance with Preferential Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The search was carried out in January 2022. Only peer-reviewed articles were considered for inclusion. Forty studies were included; fifteen genes were reported as having SNPs with significant association with progressive AIS, but none showed sufficient power to sustain clinical applications. In contrast, nine studies reporting epigenetic modifications showed promising results in terms of reliable markers. Prognostic testing for AIS has the potential to significantly modify disease management. Most recent evidence suggests epigenetics as a more promising field for the identification of factors associated with AIS progression, offering a rationale for further investigation in this field.

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