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1.
Math Med Biol ; 2024 Aug 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39163265

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Predicting the endemic/epidemic transition during the temporal evolution of a contagious disease. METHODS: Indicators for detecting the transition endemic/epidemic, with four scalars to be compared, are calculated from the daily reported news cases: coefficient of variation, skewness, kurtosis, and entropy. The indicators selected are related to the shape of the empirical distribution of the new cases observed over 14 days. This duration has been chosen to smooth out the effect of weekends when fewer new cases are registered. For finding a forecasting variable, we have used the principal component analysis (PCA), whose first principal component (a linear combination of the selected indicators) explains a large part of the observed variance and can then be used as a predictor of the phenomenon studied (here the occurrence of an epidemic wave). RESULTS: A score has been built from the four proposed indicators using the PCA, which allows an acceptable level of forecasting performance by giving a realistic retro-predicted date for the rupture of the stationary endemic model corresponding to the entrance in the epidemic exponential growth phase. This score is applied to the retro-prediction of the limits of the different phases of the COVID-19 outbreak in successive endemic/epidemic transitions for three countries, France, India, and Japan. CONCLUSION: We provided a new forecasting method for predicting an epidemic wave occurring after an endemic phase for a contagious disease.

2.
Heliyon ; 10(9): e30390, 2024 May 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38737250

RESUMEN

In the future, new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus might emerge and cause outbreaks. If this occurs, the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be reconsidered. Consideration of the potential benefits and harms of implementing NPIs, and ultimately deciding about implementing NPIs, is currently mainly executed by experts and governments. However, general literature on public engagement suggests that integrating public perspectives into decision-making can enhance the quality of decisions and foster greater public understanding of them. In this study, a deliberative mini-public was conducted to integrate this public perspective. The aim was to elicit public considerations regarding non-pharmaceutical interventions by asking a diverse group of citizens to participate as decision-makers and convene, learn and deliberate about implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions during a hypothetical outbreak of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Participants emphasized the importance of early implementation during the outbreak, to prevent exceeding healthcare capacity, long-term mental health issues, educational deficits, and bankruptcies. Additionally, participants stressed taking public support into account, and shared ideas on maintaining support. Furthermore, participants wanted to give citizens personal responsibility and freedom in making their own assessment regarding adherence to interventions and how much risk of infection they would be willing to accept. Participants also expressed the need for the government to adopt a learning attitude towards improvements in pandemic response, and to generate more focus on long-term strategies. The deliberative mini-public, revealed public considerations that reflected public values and needs. These considerations might be helpful in better aligning epidemic management policies with public perspectives. Regarding the deliberative mini-public, uncertainties remain about the design and impact on a bigger scale.

3.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 31(22): 32901-32913, 2024 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38668944

RESUMEN

To investigate the influence of COVID-19 lockdown measures on PM2.5 and its chemical components in Shenyang, PM2.5 samples were continuously collected from January 1 to May 31, 2020. The samples were then analyzed for water-soluble inorganic ions, metal elements, organic carbon, and elemental carbon. The findings indicated a significant decrease in PM2.5 and its various chemical components during the lockdown period, compared to pre-lockdown levels (p < 0.05), suggesting a substantial improvement in air quality. Water-soluble inorganic ions (WSIIs) were identified as the primary contributors to PM2.5, accounting for 47% before the lockdown, 46% during the lockdown, and 37% after the lockdown. Ionic balance analysis revealed that PM2.5 exhibited neutral, weakly alkaline, and alkaline characteristics before, during, and after the lockdown, respectively. NH4+ was identified as the main balancing cation and was predominantly present in the form of NH4NO3 in the absence of complete neutralization of SO42- and NO3-. Moreover, the higher sulfur oxidation ratio (SOR) and nitrogen oxidation ratio (NOR), along with the significant increase in PM2.5/EC, suggested intense secondary transformation during the lockdown period. The elevated OC/EC ratio during the lockdown period implied higher secondary organic carbon (SOC), and the notable increase in SOC/EC ratio indicated a significant secondary transformation of total carbon. The enrichment factor (EF) results revealed that during the lockdown, 9 metal elements (As, Sn, Pb, Zn, Cu, Sb, Ag, Cd, and Se) were substantially impacted by anthropogenic emissions. Source analysis of PMF was employed to identify the sources of PM2.5 in Shenyang during the study period, and the analysis identified six factors: secondary sulfate and vehicle emissions, catering fume sources, secondary nitrate and coal combustion emissions, dust sources, biomass combustion, and industrial emissions, with secondary sulfate and vehicle emissions and catering fume sources contributing the most to PM2.5.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , COVID-19 , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Material Particulado , Material Particulado/análisis , China , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , COVID-19/epidemiología , Contaminación del Aire , Ciudades , Humanos
4.
Epidemiol Infect ; 152: e57, 2024 Mar 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38506229

RESUMEN

Current World Health Organization (WHO) reports claim a decline in COVID-19 testing and reporting of new infections. To discuss the consequences of ignoring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, the endemic characteristics of the disease in 2023 with the ones estimated before using 2022 data sets are compared. The accumulated numbers of cases and deaths reported to the WHO by the 10 most infected countries and global figures were used to calculate the average daily numbers of cases DCC and deaths DDC per capita and case fatality rates (CFRs = DDC/DCC) for two periods in 2023. In some countries, the DDC values can be higher than the upper 2022 limit and exceed the seasonal influenza mortality. The increase in CFR in 2023 shows that SARS-CoV-2 infection is still dangerous. The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita in 2022 and 2023 do not demonstrate downward trends with the increase in the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters. The reasons may be both rapid mutations of the coronavirus, which reduced the effectiveness of vaccines and led to a large number of re-infections, and inappropriate management.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Vacunas contra la Influenza , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Prueba de COVID-19 , Organización Mundial de la Salud
5.
Chinese Medical Ethics ; (6): 624-629, 2024.
Artículo en Chino | WPRIM (Pacífico Occidental) | ID: wpr-1036477

RESUMEN

The great spirit of combating the COVID⁃19 epidemic is condensed from the practice of the national people’s great spirit of combating the COVID⁃19 epidemic led by the Party and the country. It is consistent with the goals of medical ethics curriculums and has a close relationship with the content. It is a new era element of ideological and political construction in medical ethics curriculums, providing inevitability for its integration into medical ethics curriculums. Its spiritual connotations of the spirit of humanism, patriotism, dedication, and science, as well as moral responsibility, have profound significance in educating and guiding medical students to cultivate correct values, deepen a strong sense of family and country, strengthen ideals and beliefs, cultivate practical character, and solidify the moral foundation. Therefore, it’s necessary to adhere to the guidance of value and introduce the anti-epidemic spirit into the main channel of classroom teaching, strengthen the integration of knowledge and action and integrate the anti-epidemic spirit into the whole process of practical teaching, enrich educational carriers, apply modern information technology to carry out anti-epidemic spirit education, and promote the comprehensive and three-dimensional integration of anti-epidemic spirit into medical ethics teaching.

6.
J Med Virol ; 95(7): e28899, 2023 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37401337

RESUMEN

To analyze changes in the detection of parainfluenza virus (PIV) in children hospitalized with acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) during 2014-2022 in Hubei Province, and explore the impact of the universal two-child policy and the public health measures against COVID-19 epidemic on the prevalence of PIV in China. The study was conducted at the Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Hubei Province. Children aged <18 years with ARTI admitted from January 2014 to June 2022 were enrolled. The infection of PIV was confirmed by the direct immunofluorescence method in nasopharyngeal specimens. Adjusted logistic regression models were used to analyze the influence of the universal two-child policy implementation and public health measurements against COVID-19 on PIV detection. Totally 75 128 inpatients meeting the criteria were enrolled in this study from January 2014 to June 2022 with an overall PIV positive rate of 5.5%. The epidemic seasons of PIV prevalence lagged substantially in 2020. A statistically significant higher positive rate of PIV was observed in 2017-2019 compared to that in 2014-2015 (6.12% vs 2.89%, risk ratio = 2.12, p < 0.001) after the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016. A steep decline occurred in PIV positive rate during the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 (0.92% vs 6.92%, p < 0.001) and it rebounded during the regular epidemic prevention and control period in 2021-2022 (6.35%, p = 0.104). In Hubei Province, the implementation of the universal two-child policy might have led to an increase of PIV prevalence, and public health measures during the COVID-19 epidemic might have influenced the fluctuation in PIV detection since 2020.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Infecciones por Paramyxoviridae , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio , Humanos , Niño , Lactante , Niño Hospitalizado , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiología , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/epidemiología , China/epidemiología , Virus de la Parainfluenza 1 Humana , Virus de la Parainfluenza 2 Humana , Infecciones por Paramyxoviridae/epidemiología
7.
Huan Jing Ke Xue ; 44(7): 3788-3796, 2023 Jul 08.
Artículo en Chino | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37438278

RESUMEN

To prevent disease spreading during the COVID-19 epidemic, Shenzhen adopted lockdown measures in March of 2022. This provided an opportunity to study the response of changes in anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (AVOCs) in Shenzhen to emission reduction and to evaluate the effectiveness of current emission reduction measures. This study analyzed the variety of AVOCs before, during, and after the epidemic lockdown based on the online observation data of pollutants at Lianhua Station in Shenzhen from March 7, 2022 to March 27, 2022. Additionally, the sensitivity of ozone formation and the assessment of the reduction effect of precursors was conducted by an observation based model(OBM). The results showed that:affected by regional influences and the interference of meteorological conditions, the average value of AVOCs in Shenzhen urban areas did not drop significantly during the lockdown period compared to that before the lockdown. However, the peak of AVOCs at the morning peak time under the influence of "sea and land wind" during the epidemic lockdown period dropped by 46% on average compared with that during the non-lockdown period, and the aromatic hydrocarbon component dropped the most by 59%. Additionally, under the influence of continuous easterly wind, or during the accumulation and increase of AVOCs affected by regional transmission, aromatic components also decreased by an average of 25% and 21%, respectively. During the lockdown period of the epidemic in Shenzhen, the O3 formation in urban areas was still AVOCs-limited. Increasing the emission reduction ratio of AVOCs was the most effective measure to reduce O3 in the short term. In order to ensure the effectiveness of emission reduction, it was recommended that the coordinated emission reduction ratio of AVOCs and NOx should be greater than 1:2. It was only possible to enter the downward channel of O3 if the deep emission reduction was more than 60%. This study revealed that the emission reduction of AVOCs during the morning traffic peak during the epidemic lockdown period was conducive to inhibiting the formation of O3, whereas the control of NOx would promote it. Strengthening the control of local aromatic hydrocarbon components during the regional impact process could also significantly reduce O3 production. At this stage, Shenzhen should strengthen the management and control of industrial solvents, especially to reduce the aromatic hydrocarbon components in the solvent source that have a greater impact on the generation of O3. Further, Shenzhen should continue to promote the reform of the energy structure of motor vehicles to reduce the emission of VOCs in fuel combustion.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Contaminantes Ambientales , Ozono , Compuestos Orgánicos Volátiles , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Industrias
8.
Healthcare (Basel) ; 11(14)2023 Jul 18.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37510494

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in significant changes in nursing education. Maintaining social distance could slow down the spread of COVID-19, and it was necessary, but it significantly reduced students' hands-on clinical practice experience in healthcare settings. Traditional classroom teaching in schools has transitioned to distance or online learning methods, which significantly reduced students' hands-on clinical practice experience in healthcare settings. Although distance education had been implemented for a long time, there are many problems and challenges to be resolved. The experiences and needs of nursing students in remote clinical training urgently require further understanding. PURPOSE: To understand the stress and coping strategies of online nursing practicum courses for Taiwanese nursing students during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A qualitative research approach with purposive sampling was supplemented by snowball sampling. Semi-structured interviews were conducted, and the data were collected following the eight-step process outlined by Waltz, Strickland, and Lenz (2010). The participants were 12 nursing students on a two-year nursing RN-to-BSN program at a university in Eastern Taiwan, consisting of 11 females and 1 male student. FINDINGS: The stress and coping behaviors of nursing students consist of four main themes, each with three subthemes, including "urgent changes", "the gaps between online courses and practical operations", "mixed feelings of joy and anxiety" and "unexpected gains". CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic has impacted nursing students' learning and living. Engaging in online nursing practicum brought about significant stress; nevertheless, students employed various coping strategies to navigate through this challenging period. The findings of this study would also help nursing educators understand the learning gaps in clinical practicum among students.

9.
Int J Disaster Risk Reduct ; 94: 103799, 2023 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37360250

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 pandemic was a serious global health emergency in 2020 and 2021. This study analyzed the seasonal association of weekly averages of meteorological parameters, such as wind speed, solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and air pollutant PM2.5, with confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Baghdad, Iraq, a major megacity of the Middle East, for the period June 2020 to August 2021. Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficients were used to investigate the association. The results showed that wind speed, air temperature, and solar radiation have positive and strong correlations with the confirmed cases and deaths in the cold season (autumn and winter 2020-2021). The total COVID-19 cases negatively correlated with relative humidity but were not significant in all seasons. Besides, PM2.5 strongly correlated with COVID-19 confirmed cases for the summer of 2020. The death distribution by age group showed the highest deaths for those aged 60-69. The highest number of deaths was 41% in the summer of 2020. The study provided useful information about the COVID-19 health emergency and meteorological parameters, which can be used for future health disaster planning, adopting prevention strategies and providing healthcare procedures to protect against future infraction transmission.

10.
Healthcare (Basel) ; 11(9)2023 Apr 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37174762

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Before the mass vaccination, epidemiological control measures were the only means of containing the COVID-19 epidemic. Their effectiveness determined the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our study evaluated the impact of sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors on patient-reported epidemiological control measures. METHODS: A nationwide representative sample of 1008 randomly selected adults were interviewed in person between 15 March and 30 May 2021. The prevalence of test-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was 12.1%, of testing was 33.7%, and of contact tracing among test-confirmed infected subjects was 67.9%. The vaccination coverage was 52.4%. RESULTS: According to the multivariable logistic regression models, the occurrence of infection was not influenced by sociodemographic and lifestyle factors or by the presence of chronic disease. Testing was more frequent among middle-aged adults (aOR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.10-2.13) and employed adults (aOR = 2.06, 95% CI 1.42-3.00), and was more frequent among adults with a higher education (aORsecondary = 1.93, 95% CI 1.20-3.13; aORtertiary = 3.19, 95% CI 1.81-5.63). Contact tracing was more frequently implemented among middle-aged (aOR41-7y = 3.33, 95% CI 1.17-9.45) and employed (aOR = 4.58, 95% CI 1.38-15.22), and those with chronic diseases (aOR = 5.92, 95% CI 1.56-22.47). Positive correlation was observed between age groups and vaccination frequency (aOR41-70y = 2.94, 95% CI 2.09-4.15; aOR71+y = 14.52, 95% CI 7.33-28.77). Higher than primary education (aORsecondary = 1.69, 95% CI 1.08-2.63; aORtertiary = 4.36, 95% CI 2.46-7.73) and the presence of a chronic disease (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI 1.75-3.80) positively impacted vaccination. Regular smoking was inversely correlated with vaccination (aOR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.44-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: The survey indicated that testing, contact tracing, and vaccination were seriously influenced by socioeconomic position; less so by chronic disease prevalence and very minimally by lifestyle. The etiological role of socioeconomic inequalities in epidemic measure implementation likely generated socioeconomic inequality in COVID-19-related complication and death rates.

11.
Front Public Health ; 11: 1121846, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37139394

RESUMEN

Purpose: By serving and providing a guide for other regional places, this study aims to advance and guide the epidemic prevention and control methods, and practices and strengthen people's ability to respond to COVID-19 and other future potential public health risks. Design/methodology/approach: A comparative analysis was conducted that the COVID-19 epidemic development trend and prevention and control effects both in Beijing and Shanghai. In fact, regarding the COVID-19 policy and strategic areas, the differences between governmental, social, and professional management were discussed and explored. To prevent and be ready for potential pandemics, experience and knowledge were used and summarized. Findings: The strong attack of the Omicron variant in early 2022 has posed challenges to epidemic prevention and control practices in many Chinese cities. Shanghai, which had achieved relatively good performance in the fight against the epidemic, has exposed limitations in its epidemic prevention and control system in the face of Omicron. In fact, the city of Beijing has undertaken prompt and severe lockdown measures and achieved rather good results in epidemic prevention and control because of learning from Shanghai's experience and lessons; adhering to the overall concept of "dynamic clearing," implementing precise prevention and monitoring, enhancing community control, and making emergency plans and preparations. All these actions and measures are still essential in the shift from pandemic response to pandemic control. Research limitations/implications: Different places have introduced different urgent policies to control the spread of the pandemic. Strategies to control COVID-19 have often been based on preliminary and limited data and have tended to be slow to evolve as new evidence emerges. Hence, the effects of these anti-epidemic policies need to be further tested.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Beijing/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , China/epidemiología , Pandemias/prevención & control
12.
Appl Geogr ; 156: 102978, 2023 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37124367

RESUMEN

The outbreak of Covid-19 epidemic has a prolonged impact on global economic activities. In recent years, many scholars have been motivated to estimate the effects of Covid-19 shock on global foreign direct investment (FDI). However, existing studies have not paid enough attention to the spillover effects caused by the epidemic. Although few academic works have explored the geographic-neighboring spillover effects of epidemic shock on global investment, we further extent the understanding of the spillover effects in an economic network. On the basis of country-month greenfield FDI panels, we construct a spatial Durbin model, and figure out that Covid-19 shock may have positive FDI spillover effects in an economic network via global FDI transfers. Furthermore, we find that such spillovers are greatly conditioned by country-level network position and institutional ties among nations. Our research suggests that global FDI transfers may partly offset economic-adverse effects of the Covid-19 shock. While global countries, especially those in the Global South, should be more closely embedded in the global investment network in such an uncertain environment.

13.
Bull Math Biol ; 85(6): 54, 2023 05 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37166513

RESUMEN

Metapopulation models have been a popular tool for the study of epidemic spread over a network of highly populated nodes (cities, provinces, countries) and have been extensively used in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the present work, we revisit such a model, bearing a particular case example in mind, namely that of the region of Andalusia in Spain during the period of the summer-fall of 2020 (i.e., between the first and second pandemic waves). Our aim is to consider the possibility of incorporation of mobility across the province nodes focusing on mobile-phone time-dependent data, but also discussing the comparison for our case example with a gravity model, as well as with the dynamics in the absence of mobility. Our main finding is that mobility is key toward a quantitative understanding of the emergence of the second wave of the pandemic and that the most accurate way to capture it involves dynamic (rather than static) inclusion of time-dependent mobility matrices based on cell-phone data. Alternatives bearing no mobility are unable to capture the trends revealed by the data in the context of the metapopulation model considered herein.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Pandemias , Modelos Biológicos , Conceptos Matemáticos , Tiempo
14.
BMC Med Educ ; 23(1): 348, 2023 May 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37198585

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Nursing undergraduates' academic self-efficacy is a significant factor in determining their learning motivation, cognition, and emotions. It has a significant impact on improving academic performance and achieving learning goals. METHODS: To explore the mechanism of psychological distress affecting the academic self-efficacy of nursing undergraduates, the generalized anxiety disorder scale-7, patient health questionnaire-9, academic self-efficacy scale, perceived social support scale and mindful attention awareness scale were conducted. RESULTS: Model fitness indexes of the structural equation model is good (CMIN/DF = 1.404, RMSEA = 0.042, GFI = 0.977, IFI = 0.977, TLI = 0.954, CFI = 0.975, NFI = 0.923). Structural equation model analysis showed that social support and mindfulness were the mediating variables of psychological distress on academic self-efficacy. Mediating variables accounted for 44% of the total effect value (- 0.3) with a value of - 0.132. Three paths were verified: psychological distress indirectly affected academic self-efficacy through social support (- 0.064); psychological distress indirectly affected academic self-efficacy through mindfulness (- 0.053); psychological distress indirectly affected academic self-efficacy through social support and mindfulness (- 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: Social support and mindfulness play significant mediating roles in the effect of psychological distress on academic self-efficacy, and the chain mediating role of social support and mindfulness is also significant. Educators may mitigate the impact of psychological distress on academic self-efficacy by enhancing students' social support and mindfulness.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Atención Plena , Distrés Psicológico , Humanos , Autoeficacia , Estudiantes/psicología , Apoyo Social
15.
Socioecon Plann Sci ; 87: 101602, 2023 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37255585

RESUMEN

As an abrupt epidemic occurs, healthcare systems are shocked by the surge in the number of susceptible patients' demands, and decision-makers mostly rely on their frame of reference for urgent decision-making. Many reports have declared the COVID-19 impediments to trading and global economic growth. This study aims to provide a mathematical model to support pharmaceutical supply chain planning during the COVID-19 epidemic. Additionally, it aims to offer new insights into hospital supply chain problems by unifying cold and non-cold chains and considering a wide range of pharmaceuticals and vaccines. This approach is unprecedented and includes an analysis of various pharmaceutical features such as temperature, shelf life, priority, and clustering. To propose a model for planning the pharmaceutical supply chains, a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is used for a four-echelon supply chain design. This model aims to minimize the costs involved in the pharmaceutical supply chain by maintaining an acceptable service level. Also, this paper considers uncertainty as an intrinsic part of the problem and addresses it through the wait-and-see method. Furthermore, an unexplored unsupervised learning method in the realm of supply chain planning has been used to cluster the pharmaceuticals and the vaccines and its merits and drawbacks are proposed. A case of Tehran hospitals with real data has been used to show the model's capabilities, as well. Based on the obtained results, the proposed approach is able to reach the optimum service level in the COVID conditions while maintaining a reduced cost. The experiment illustrates that the hospitals' adjacency and emergency orders alleviated the service level significantly. The proposed MILP model has proven to be efficient in providing a practical intuition for decision-makers. The clustering technique reduced the size of the problem and the time required to solve the model considerably.

16.
J Math Biol ; 86(5): 81, 2023 04 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37097481

RESUMEN

We incorporate the disease state and testing state into the formulation of a COVID-19 epidemic model. For this model, the basic reproduction number is identified and its dependence on model parameters related to the testing process and isolation efficacy is discussed. The relations between the basic reproduction number, the final epidemic and peak sizes, and the model parameters are further explored numerically. We find that fast test reporting does not always benefit the control of the COVID-19 epidemic if good quarantine while awaiting test results is implemented. Moreover, the final epidemic and peak sizes do not always increase along with the basic reproduction number. Under some circumstances, lowering the basic reproduction number increases the final epidemic and peak sizes. Our findings suggest that properly implementing isolation for individuals who are waiting for their testing results would lower the basic reproduction number as well as the final epidemic and peak sizes.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemias , Humanos , Cuarentena , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Prueba de COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Número Básico de Reproducción
17.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 30(21): 60294-60302, 2023 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37022551

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 lockdown had a positive control effect on urban air quality. However, this effect remains uncertain after the epidemic enters regular management, and furthermore, only limited data are available regarding urban PM2.5 (aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5µm) under the impact of the epidemic. We used daily ambient PM2.5 concentration data in Beijing to compare and analyze the changes in urban PM2.5 concentrations before and after the COVID-19 epidemic and to estimate the healthy effects and economic burden associated with PM2.5 before and after the epidemic. The study found that COVID-19 has a significant impact on the urban environmental PM2.5 concentration, which is manifested by the decrease in the PM2.5 concentration in Beijing during the epidemic by 27.8%. Exposure-response models estimated 56.443 (95% CI: 43.084-69.893) thousand people die prematurely in Beijing during the COVID-19 epidemic attributed to long-term PM2.5 exposure, with a 13.3% decrease in the number of premature deaths year-on-year. The total healthy economic losses attributable to PM2.5 in Beijing during the COVID-19 epidemic were 35.76 (95% CI: 28.41-42.44) billion yuan, with a per capita loss of 816.8 yuan. Strict control measures throughout the COVID-19 epidemic had a positive impact on air quality in Beijing, with a decrease in both premature deaths and economic healthy losses attributable to fine particles. This paper helps to enrich and expand the research on the impact of COVID-19 on the urban environment and provides a basis for formulating policies related to air quality improvement in the post-epidemic era.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , COVID-19 , Humanos , Beijing/epidemiología , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , Estrés Financiero , COVID-19/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , China/epidemiología
18.
Psychol Health Med ; 28(9): 2526-2536, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36878882

RESUMEN

Previous studies have investigated the effects of the pandemic on quality of life; both economical and psychosocial effects were explored. Some studies also mentioned mediating factors as mechanisms in this relationship; however, the mediating role of anxiety has not been examined. The present study examined the mediating effects of anxiety on the relationship between socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 and quality of life. An online survey of 280 Vietnamese residents was conducted in the context of the pandemic outbreak. Anxiety was found to be a completely mediating variable in the association between the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic and quality of life during the lockdown period. This finding contributes to a better understanding of how the pandemic affects people's quality of life and serves as the foundation for lessening the negative effects of the epidemic on people's lives.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Calidad de Vida , Humanos , Estudios Transversales , Vietnam/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Ansiedad/epidemiología , Factores Socioeconómicos
19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36901200

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Although cross-sectional studies on the learning status of nursing undergraduates during the COVID-19 epidemic have surged, few studies have explored the normalization of COVID-19 on students' learning burnout and mental health. The study was designed to investigate the learning burnout of nursing undergraduates in school under the normalization of the COVID-19 epidemic and explore the hypothesized mediation effect of academic self-efficacy in the relationship between anxiety, depression and learning burnout in Chinese nursing undergraduates. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among nursing undergraduates in the school of nursing of a university in Jiangsu Province, China (n = 227). A general information questionnaire, College Students' Learning Burnout Questionnaire, Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7), and Patient Health Questionnaire depression scale (PHQ-9) were administered. Descriptive statistical analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis were performed via SPSS 26.0. Process plug-in (Model 4) was used to test the mediating effect of academic self-efficacy (bootstrap 5000 iterations, α = 0.05). RESULTS: Learning burnout (54.1 ± 0.656) was positively correlated with anxiety (4.6 ± 0.283) and depression (5.3 ± 0.366) (p < 0.01) and was negatively correlated with academic self-efficacy (74.41 ± 0.674) (p < 0.01). Academic self-efficacy plays a mediating role between anxiety and learning burnout (0.395/0.493, 80.12%) and a mediating role between depression and learning burnout (0.332/0.503, 66.00%). CONCLUSION: Academic self-efficacy has a significant predictive effect on learning burnout. Schools and teachers should strengthen the screening and counselling of students' psychological problems, detect learning burnout caused by emotional problems in advance and improve students' initiative and enthusiasm for learning.


Asunto(s)
Agotamiento Profesional , COVID-19 , Humanos , Estudios Transversales , Autoeficacia , Depresión , Ansiedad/epidemiología , Agotamiento Psicológico , Agotamiento Profesional/psicología , Estudiantes
20.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 9: e45110, 2023 04 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36921236

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The community environment plays a vital role in the health of older adults. During the COVID-19 epidemic, older adults, who were considered the most impacted and most vulnerable social group, were confined to their homes during the implementation of management and control measures for the epidemic. In such situations, older adults may have to contend with a lack of resources and experience anxiety. Therefore, identifying the environmental factors that are beneficial for their physical and mental health is critical. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the association between community cohesion and the physical and mental health of older adults and to identify the related community services and environmental factors that may promote community cohesion. METHODS: This community-based cross-sectional study was designed during the COVID-19 epidemic. A multistage sampling method was applied to this study. A total of 2036 participants aged ≥60 years were sampled from 27 locations in China. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews. The neighborhood cohesion instrument consisting of scales on 3 dimensions was used to assess community cohesion. Self-efficacy and life satisfaction, cognitive function and depression, and community services and environmental factors were also measured using standard instruments. Statistical analyses were restricted to 99.07% (2017/2036) of the participants. Separate logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the association among community cohesion and physical and mental health factors, related community services, and environmental factors among older adults. RESULTS: The results showed that high levels of community cohesion were associated with good self-perceived health status and life satisfaction (odds ratio [OR] 1.27, 95% CI 1.01-1.59 and OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.15-1.27, respectively) and high levels of self-efficacy and psychological resilience (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.13 and OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.06, respectively). The length of stay in the community and the level of physical activity were positively associated with community cohesion scores, whereas the education level was negatively associated with community cohesion scores (P=.009). Community cohesion was also associated with low levels of depression and high levels of cognitive function. Community cohesion was significantly associated with community services and environmental factors on 4 dimensions. High levels of community cohesion were associated with transportation services and rehabilitation equipment rental services as well as high levels of satisfaction with community physicians' technical expertise and community waste disposal (OR 3.14, 95% CI 1.87-5.28; OR 3.62, 95% CI 2.38-5.52; OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.08-1.73; and OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.50, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Community cohesion was found to be associated with the physical and mental health of older adults. Our research suggests that enhancing community services and environmental resources may be an effective strategy to increase community cohesion during major infectious disease epidemics.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Redes Comunitarias , Epidemias , Salud Mental , Anciano , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Estado de Salud , Medio Social , Autoeficacia
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