RESUMEN

To the extent of our knowledge, there is a gap in scrutinizing the impacts of the country's risk and global uncertainty on Asian firms' cash holdings. Therefore, this work aims to shed light on this gap by choosing 989 listed non-financial Asian firms and performing both the static (fixed-effects) and dynamic (Difference-GMM and System-GMM) panel data methods between 2008 and 2020. The findings reveal that an increase in a country's risk and global uncertainty stimulates firms to stockpile more cash though the impact of country risk is more pronounced. Likewise, the results underscore that among the country risk factors, firms have more precautionary motives to stockpile more cash with increases in financial and political instability while they hold more cash with rises in economic stability. Remarkably, the results emphasize that the impacts of country risk and global uncertainty on cash holdings are more prominent in environments characterized by common-law legal origin, high uncertainty avoidance cultures, and less financial market development. Moreover, the results reveal that firm-specific factors including growth opportunity, leverage, profitability, dividend, and size have an important role in shaping Asian firms' cash holdings policy.

RESUMEN

Extant literature suggests the essential role of a country's vulnerability in decreasing the stability of the banking sectors. However, the effect of country-specific risks on banking sector stability remains largely understudied. This study specifically examines the impact of country risk, encompassing political, economic, and financial risks, on the banking sector stability from a global perspective. Furthermore, we attempt to provide more insight by answering how this relationship varies by grouping countries based on income and risk levels. To achieve this purpose, we focus on 107 countries and employ a dynamic panel data model (SYS-GMM) between 2004 and 2017. The results indicate that a reduction in a country's vulnerability to specific political, economic, and financial risks, contributes to enhanced stability in the banking sector. This positive effect is particularly pronounced as countries move from low to medium and high-income levels. Furthermore, the study reveals that a decrease in country risk leads to increased banking sector stability in both low and high-risk countries, but the effect is more outstanding in low-risk environments. Moreover, the results highlight the significant influence of banking sector-specific factors and country-level determinants on stability, however, the magnitude and direction of these factors' coefficients depend on the income and risk levels of the countries. The results are robust and can have important suggestions to policymakers, regulators, and bank executives in understating and mitigating risk factors to enhance the stability of their banking sectors.

RESUMEN

In the last two decades, environmental degradation has been a topic of concern. The rising level of CO2 emissions (CO2E) has adversely affected life in the E7 countries, which comprise of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey. The increased in CO2E is the cause of rising sea levels in the E7 countries. Visibly, E7 nations which are considered as the largest emitters of CO2 are facing the most severe environmental challenges. This study investigates the impact of eco-innovation, economic growth (EG), renewable energy consumption (REC), economic risk (ERI), and globalization on the CO2E, using the Feasible Generalized Lease Squares (FGLS) and Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) techniques for the period 1995 to 2018. The results indicate an inverted N-shaped relationship between eco-innovation and CO2E. Also, eco-innovation, REC, and economic risk are observed to be significant factors in abating CO2 emissions. On the contrary, globalization and GDP are responsible for rising CO2E in E7 countries. According to empirical estimates, eco-innovation improves the efficiency of carbon emissions, which lowers CO2E. In addition, because they are immune to changes in the price of oil and gas and disruptions brought about by geopolitical events, renewable energy sources can offer countries a more secure energy source than fossil fuels. Alternative energy sources can reasonably cut CO2E while offering a more reliable and secure energy source. Therefore, it is crucial that policies be put in place to cut CO2E by giving priority to environmental innovative policies.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

This research study examined the influence of financial market development on the shadow economy and the moderating effect of country risk (political, economic, and financial) in this nexus in Pakistan. Using data from 1995 to 2018, the study applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, followed by the F-bounds test to investigate stationarity and cointegration in the series, respectively. The study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate the long-run relationship, and to examine the possible causal relationship among the variables, the study employed Breitung and Candelon's (2006) spectral test. The study identified that financial market development is negative, and the country's risk determinants are positively associated with the shadow economy's size. Moreover, the study found that country risk positively moderates the influence of financial market development on the shadow economy. The results also highlighted a unidirectional relationship from economic and financial risk towards the shadow economy. Finally, based on the empirical findings, the study recommends some policy implications to the regulators of financial markets and the shadow economy.

RESUMEN

This study aims to fill the gap in the literature by specifically investigating the impact of country risk on the credit risk of the banking sectors operating in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), emerging countries. More specifically, we explore whether the country-specific risks, namely financial, economic, and political risks significantly impact the BRICS banking sectors' non-performing loans and also probe which risk has the most outstanding effect on credit risk. To do so, we perform panel data analysis using the quantile estimation approach covering the period 2004-2020. The empirical results reveal that the country risk significantly leads to increasing the banking sector's credit risk and this effect is prominent in the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans (Q.25 = - 0.105, Q.50 = - 0.131, Q.75 = - 0.153, Q.95 = - 0.175). Furthermore, the results underscore that an emerging country's political, economic, and financial instabilities are strongly associated with increasing the banking sector's credit risk and a rise in political risk in particular has the most positive prominent impact on the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans (Q.25 = - 0.122, Q.50 = - 0.141, Q.75 = - 0.163, Q.95 = - 0.172). Moreover, the results suggest that, in addition to the banking sector-specific determinants, credit risk is significantly impacted by the financial market development, lending interest rate, and global risk. The results are robust and have significant policy suggestions for many policymakers, bank executives, researchers, and analysts.

RESUMEN

The country's risk may significantly impact every sector of the economy, and the energy sector is no exception. However, no past study has empirically tested the relationship between country risk and renewable energy investment. Therefore, this study is an effort to investigate the relationship between country risk and renewable energy investment in highly polluted economies. We have employed different econometric techniques to analyze the relationship between renewable energy investment and country risk, including the OLS, 2SLS, GMM, and panel quantile regressions. The estimate of country risk influence renewable energy investment negatively in OLS, 2SLS, and GMM models. Similarly, the country's risk negatively impacts the renewable energy investment from the 10th to 60th quantiles in the panel quantile regression model. Moreover, the GDP, CO2 emissions, and technological development help promote renewable energy investment in OLS, 2SLS, and GMM models, while the human capital and financial development do not significantly impact the renewable energy investment. Furthermore, in the panel quantile regression model, the GDP and CO2 emission estimates are positively significant almost at all quantiles, and the estimate of technological development and human capital are positively significant at higher quantiles only. Therefore, the authorities in highly polluted economies should consider the respective countries' risk considerations while formulating rules about renewable energy.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

COVID-19 has disrupted all spheres of life, including country risk regarding the exposure of economies to multi-dimensional risk drivers. However, it remains unexplored how COVID-19 has impacted different drivers of country risk in a probabilistic network setting. This paper uses two datasets on country-level COVID-19 and country risks to explore dependencies among associated drivers using a Bayesian Belief Network model. The drivers of COVID-19 risk, considered in this paper, are hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity, whereas country risk drivers are economic, financing, political, business environment and commercial risks. The results show that business environment risk is significantly influenced by COVID-19 risk, whereas commercial risk (demand disruptions) is the least important factor driving COVID-19 and country risks. Further, country risk is mainly influenced by financing, political and economic risks. The contribution of this study is to explore the impact of various drivers associated with the country-level COVID-19 and country risks in a unified probabilistic network setting, which can help policy-makers prioritize drivers for managing the two risks.

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Guided by the best practices adapted from national and international bodies including the World Health Organization (WHO), the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and the UK Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC), this paper aims to develop and provide an empirical risk stratification and assessment framework for advancing the safe resumption of global travel during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: Variables included in our model are categorized into four pillars: (i) incidence of cases, (ii) reliability of case data, (iii) vaccination, and (iv) variant surveillance. These measures are combined based on weights that reflect their corresponding importance in risk assessment within the context of the pandemic to calculate the risk score for each country. As a validation step, the outcome of the risk stratification from our model is compared against four countries. RESULTS: Our model is found to have good agreement with these benchmarked risk designations for 27 out of the top 30 countries with the strongest travel ties to Malaysia (90%). Each factor within this model signifies its importance and can be adapted by governing bodies to address the changing needs of border control policies for the recommencement of international travel. CONCLUSION: In practice, the proposed model provides a turnkey solution for nations to manage transmission risk by enabling stakeholders to make informed, evidence-based decisions to minimize fluctuations of imported cases and serves as a structure to support the improvement, planning, and activation of public health control measures.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

This research explores the effects of income inequality and country risk on CO2 emissions and examines whether the effects change across countries with different development stages or income levels. A new panel quantile regression approach is used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of affecting factors on CO2 emissions at various quantiles, while addressing econometric challenges such as endogeneity and heterogeneity. From a global perspective, we can conclude that the marginal impact of inequality on emissions drops constantly with decreasing country risk at 10th to 50th quantiles, which even performs negative, whereas at the other quantiles, the marginal impact of inequality always remains negative. When we focus on the different income groups, the nexus of inequality emissions is negative first and then positive with decrease of country risk in low-income countries but shows no significant in low-middle- and upper-middle-income countries. Additionally, we validate the detrimental impact of income inequality in upper-income countries. Besides, country risk adversely moderates the nexus of inequality and emissions in low- and upper-income countries. Empirical results confirm that the nexus of inequality emissions lies in country risk, income level, and existing emission degree. These findings provide some important recommendations for policy-makers.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Assessment of country risk provides a vital source of information to organizations for expanding and globalizing their operations. Various rating agencies are involved in developing models for assessing country risk, which utilize different statistical techniques for establishing the overall impact of individual factors on country risk. The main limitation of existing studies on country risk is their limited focus on exploring the relative contribution of individual factors to country risk in a probabilistic network setting. Utilizing real data, we develop a probabilistic network model that captures dependencies among multidimensional factors associated with country risk. Further, we assess the network-wide vulnerability and resilience potential of individual factors to identify critical factors. The findings of this study provide policy-makers with some unique insights into prioritizing strategies to mitigate country risk. Further, this study provides the context for multinational enterprises to utilize the proposed methodology for prioritizing key factors associated with the relative variables of interest such as regional stability and business environment among others.

RESUMEN

Background: Businesses increasingly conduct operations in remote areas where medical evacuation [Medevac(s)] carries more risk. Royal Dutch Shell developed a remote healthcare strategy whereby enhanced remote healthcare is made available to the patient through use of telemedicine and telemetry. To evaluate that strategy, a review of Medevacs of Shell International employees [i.e. expatriate employees (EEs) and frequent business travellers (FBTs)] was undertaken. Method: A retrospective review of Medevac data (period 2008-12) that were similar in operational constraints and population profile was conducted. Employee records and Human Resource data were used as a denominator for the population. Analogous Medevac data from specific locations were used to compare patterns of diagnoses. Results: A total of 130 Medevacs were conducted during the study period, resulting in a Medevac rate of 4 per 1000 of population with 16 per 1000 for females and 3 per 1000 for males, respectively. The youngest and oldest age-groups required Medevacs in larger proportions. The evacuation rates were highest for countries classified as 'high' or 'extreme risk'. The most frequent diagnostic categories for Medevac were: trauma, digestive, musculoskeletal, cardiac and neurological. In 9% of the total, a strong to moderate link could be made between the pre-existing medical condition and diagnosis leading to Medevac. Conclusion: This study uniquely provides a benchmark Medevac rate (4 per 1000) for EEs and FBTs and demonstrates that Medevac rates are highest from countries identified as 'high risk'; there is an age and gender bias, and pre-existing medical conditions are of notable relevance. It confirms a change in the trend from injury to illness as a reason for Medevac in the oil and gas industry and demonstrates that diagnoses of a digestive and traumatic nature are the most frequent. A holistic approach to health (as opposed to a predominant focus on fitness to work), more attention to female travellers, and the application of modern technology and communication will reduce the need for Medevacs.

Asunto(s)