RESUMEN
Since early 2020, COVID-19 has wreaked havoc in many societies around the world. As of the present, the SARS-CoV-2-borne disease is propagating in almost all countries, affecting hundreds of thousands of people in an unprecedented way. As the name suggests, the novel coronavirus, widely known as SARS-CoV-2, is a new emerging human pathogen. A novel disease of relatively unknown origin, COVID-19 does not seem to be amenable to the currently available medicines since there is no specific cure for the disease. In the absence of any vaccine or effective antiviral medication, we have no tools at our disposal, but the method of quarantine, be it domestic or institutional, to hinder any further progression of this outbreak. However, there is a record of physicians in the past who practiced convalescent blood transfusion. To their awe, the method seemed to be useful. It is anticipated that these contemporary methods will outdo any other vaccination process in the time being, as blood transfusion is instead a cost-effective and time-friendly technique. Following a successful trial, this new approach of contemporary nature to a viral disease may serve as an emergency intervention to intercept infectious outbreaks and prevent an impending epidemic/pandemic. In this review, we document the most recent evidence regarding the efficiency of convalescent plasma and serum therapy on SARS, MERS, and particularly COVID-19, while discussing potential advantages and possible risks of such practice.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19/terapia , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Anticuerpos Antivirales/inmunología , Anticuerpos Antivirales/uso terapéutico , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/historia , COVID-19/prevención & control , Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Convalecencia , Infecciones por Coronavirus/terapia , Predicción , Historia del Siglo XX , Humanos , Inmunización Pasiva/efectos adversos , Inmunización Pasiva/ética , Inmunización Pasiva/historia , Inmunización Pasiva/tendencias , Gripe Humana/terapia , Plasma , Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2/inmunología , Suero , Síndrome Respiratorio Agudo Grave/terapia , Sueroterapia para COVID-19RESUMEN
Background: As of December 2020, COVID-19 has spread all over the world with more than 81 million cases and more than 1.8 million deaths. The rapidly increasing number of patients mandates the consideration of potential treatments for patients under severe and critical conditions. Convalescent plasma (CP) treatment refers to the approach of infusing patients with plasma from recently recovered patients. CP appears to be a possible therapeutic option to manage patients suffering from severe or even lethal infectious disorders, in which 'traditional therapies' have failed to obtain any result. Methods: In the present study, we develop a mathematical model on the treatment-donation-stockpile dynamics for an optimal implementation of CP therapy to examine potential benefits and complications in the logistic realization of this therapy in a large-scale population. We parametrize the model with COVID-19 epidemics in Italy, and conduct scenario analyses to estimate outcomes of population-wide CP therapy and to examine the maximum number of CP donation processions per day. Results: Under the assumption that the efficacy of CP is 90%, we show that by the end of year 2020, initiating the population-wide CP therapy from April 2020 can save as many as 19 215 lives (ranging from 5000 to 28 000 depending on donor availability), while the demand for apheresis use is manageable in all scenarios: the maximum daily demand is 156 (ranging from 27 to 519 depending on donor availability) for the first outbreak wave and 1434 (ranging from 224 to 4817 depending on donor availability) for the second wave. Given that Italy has 61 centres with apheresis this maximum demand level corresponds to a daily average of 2.5 and 23.5 processions of CP donation being performed by each centre with respect to each outbreak wave. Conclusions: Our analyses show that population-wide CP therapy can contribute to curbing COVID-19-related deaths, and the logistic implementation is feasible for developed countries. The reduction of deaths can be very significant if the CP therapy is started earlier in the outbreak, and remains significant even if it is implemented during the outbreak peak time.
RESUMEN
The interim guidance issued by the World Health Organization during the West Africa 2014 Ebola outbreak provides guidelines on the use of convalescent blood from Ebola survivors for transfusion therapy. Here we develop a novel mathematical model, based on the interim guidance, to examine the nonlinear transmission-treatment-donation-stockpile dynamics during an Ebola outbreak and with a large scale use of the transfusion therapy in the population. We estimate the reduction of case fatality ratio by introducing convalescent blood transfusion as a therapy, and inform optimal treatment-donation-stockpile strategies to balance the treatment need for case fatality ratio reduction and the strategic need of maintaining a minimal blood bank stockpile for other control priorities.