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1.
One Health ; 19: 100888, 2024 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39290643

RESUMEN

The Region of Central Macedonia (RCM) in Northern Greece recorded the highest number of human West Nile virus (WNV) infections in Greece, despite considerable local mosquito control actions. We examined spatial patterns and associations of mosquito levels, infected mosquito levels, and WNV human cases (WNVhc) across the municipalities of this region over the period 2010-2023 and linked it with climatic characteristics. We combined novel entomological and available epidemiological and climate data for the RCM, aggregated at the municipality level and used Local and Global Moran's I index to assess spatial associations of mosquito levels, infected mosquito levels, and WNVhc. We identified areas with strong interdependencies between adjacent municipalities in the Western part of the region. Furthermore, we employed a Generalized Linear Mixed Model to first, identify the factors driving the observed levels of mosquitoes, infected mosquitoes and WNVhc and second, estimate the influence of climatic features on the observed levels. This modeling approach indicates a strong dependence of the mosquito levels on the temperatures in winter and spring and the total precipitation in early spring, while virus circulation relies on the temperatures of late spring and summer. Our findings highlight the significant influence of climatic factors on mosquito populations (∼60 % explained variance) and the incidence of WNV human cases (∼40 % explained variance), while the unexplained ∼40 % of the variance suggests that targeted interventions and enhanced surveillance in identified hot-spots can enhance public health response.

2.
Plants (Basel) ; 13(17)2024 Sep 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39273927

RESUMEN

The chickpea plays a significant role in global agriculture and occupies an increasing share in the human diet. The main aim of the research was to develop a model for the prediction of two chickpea productivity traits in the available dataset. Genomic data for accessions were encoded in Artificial Image Objects, and a model for the thousand-seed weight (TSW) and number of seeds per plant (SNpP) prediction was constructed using a Convolutional Neural Network, dictionary learning and sparse coding for feature extraction, and extreme gradient boosting for regression. The model was capable of predicting both traits with an acceptable accuracy of 84-85%. The most important factors for model solution were identified using the dense regression attention maps method. The SNPs important for the SNpP and TSW traits were found in 34 and 49 genes, respectively. Genomic prediction with a constructed model can help breeding programs harness genotypic and phenotypic diversity to more effectively produce varieties with a desired phenotype.

3.
Malar J ; 23(1): 274, 2024 Sep 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39256741

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains an important public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In Rwanda, where malaria ranks among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity, disease transmission is influenced by climatic factors. However, there is a paucity of studies investigating the link between climate change and malaria dynamics, which hinders the development of effective national malaria response strategies. Addressing this critical gap, this study analyses how climatic factors influence malaria transmission across Rwanda, thereby informing tailored interventions and enhancing disease management frameworks. METHODS: The study analysed the potential impact of temperature and cumulative rainfall on malaria incidence in Rwanda from 2012 to 2021 using meteorological data from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency and malaria case records from the Rwanda Health Management and Information System. The analysis was performed in two stages. First, district-specific generalized linear models with a quasi-Poisson distribution were applied, which were enhanced by distributed lag non-linear models to explore non-linear and lagged effects. Second, random effects multivariate meta-analysis was employed to pool the estimates and to refine them through best linear unbiased predictions. RESULTS: A 1-month lag with specific temperature and rainfall thresholds influenced malaria incidence across Rwanda. Average temperature of 18.5 °C was associated with higher malaria risk, while temperature above 23.9 °C reduced the risk. Rainfall demonstrated a dual effect on malaria risk: conditions of low (below 73 mm per month) and high (above 223 mm per month) precipitation correlated with lower risk, while moderate rainfall (87 to 223 mm per month) correlated with higher risk. Seasonal patterns showed increased malaria risk during the major rainy season, while the short dry season presented lower risk. CONCLUSION: The study underscores the influence of temperature and rainfall on malaria transmission in Rwanda and calls for tailored interventions that are specific to location and season. The findings are crucial for informing policy that enhance preparedness and contribute to malaria elimination efforts. Future research should explore additional ecological and socioeconomic factors and their differential contribution to malaria transmission.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Malaria , Lluvia , Temperatura , Rwanda/epidemiología , Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/transmisión , Incidencia , Humanos , Estaciones del Año , Clima
4.
Int J Biometeorol ; 2024 Sep 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39235598

RESUMEN

Understanding the influence of climatic factors on vegetation dynamics and cumulative effects is critical for global sustainable development. However, the response of vegetation to climate and the underlying mechanisms in different climatic zones remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed the response of vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) to climatic factors and the cumulative effects across various vegetation types and climatic zones, utilizing data on precipitation (Pr), temperature (Ta), and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results showed that: (1) GPP showed significant differences among the seven climatic zones, with the highest value observed in zone VII, reaching 1860.07 gC·m- 2, and the lowest in zone I, at 126.03 gC·m- 2. (2) GPP was significantly and positively correlated with temperature in climatic zones I, IV, V, and VI and with precipitation in climatic zones I, II, and IV. Additionally, a significant positive correlated was found between SPEI and GPP in climatic zones I, II, and IV. (3) Drought exerted a cumulative effect on GPP in 45.10% of the regions within China, with an average cumulative duration of 5 months. These effects persisted for 6-8 months in zones I, II, and VII, and for 2-4 months in zones III, IV and VI. Among different vegetation types, forests experienced longest cumulative effect time of 6 months, followed by grasslands (5 months), croplands (4 months), and shrublands (4 months). The cumulative time scale decreased with increasing annual SPEI. The varying responses and accumulation of GPP to drought among different vegetation types in various climatic zones underscore the complexity of vegetation-climate interactions the response and accumulation of GPP to drought.

5.
Artículo en Chino | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39193747

RESUMEN

Objective:To analyze the related influencing factors of epistaxis in extremely high altitude area, and to provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of epistaxis in extremely high altitude area. Methods:From January 2021 to December 2022, 206 outpatients with epistaxis, 54 inpatients with epistaxis and 69 inpatients withoutepistaxis in theDepartment of Otorhinolarygology, Naqu People's Hospital were collected. The previous history, drinking history, smoking history, serum homocysteine(Hcy), white blood cell count(WBC), red blood cell count(RBC), hematocrit(HCT), hemoglobin(HGB) and mean hemoglobin concentration(MCHC) were compared between inpatients with or without epistaxis. The factors with significant differences were analyzed by binary Logistic regression. The monthly average temperature,air pressure, humidity and 2-minute wind speed were collected from January 2021 to December 2022 in Naqu City to analyze the correlation between epistaxis and climate factors. Results:The number of patients with hypertension in the case group was more than that in the control group, and the difference was significant(P=0.013). Serum Hcy level in the case group was higher than that in the control group(P<0.001). RBC, HCT, HGB and MCHC were lower than that in the control group(P=0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.039), and the difference was significant. History of hypertension and Hcy were risk factors for epistaxis. Patients with a history of hypertension were 3.713 times more likely to suffer from epistaxis than those without a history of hypertension(P=0.022). Each 1 increase in Hcy concentration increased the risk of epistaxis by 13.1%(P=0.001). Conclusion:Patients with epistaxis in Naqu area had higher serum Hcy level and lower RBC, HCT, HGB and MCHC. History of hypertension and Hcy were risk factors for epistaxis. Patients with a history of hypertension were 3.713 times more likely to suffer from epistaxis than those without a history of hypertension. Every 1 increase in Hcy concentration increased the risk of epistaxis by 13.1%. Active intervention of hypertension and serum Hcy can effectively prevent the incidence of epistaxis.


Asunto(s)
Altitud , Epistaxis , Homocisteína , Humanos , Epistaxis/sangre , Epistaxis/etiología , Homocisteína/sangre , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Hipertensión/sangre , Hipertensión/epidemiología , Clima , Factores de Riesgo , Adulto
6.
Mol Biol Evol ; 41(8)2024 Aug 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39191515

RESUMEN

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) is a tick-borne virus recognized by the World Health Organization as an emerging infectious disease of growing concern. Utilizing phylodynamic and phylogeographic methods, we have reconstructed the origin and transmission patterns of SFTSV lineages and the roles demographic, ecological, and climatic factors have played in shaping its emergence and spread throughout Asia. Environmental changes and fluctuations in tick populations, exacerbated by the widespread use of pesticides, have contributed significantly to its geographic expansion. The increased adaptability of Lineage L2 strains to the Haemaphysalis longicornis vector has facilitated the dispersal of SFTSV through Southeast Asia. Increased surveillance and proactive measures are needed to prevent further spread to Australia, Indonesia, and North America.


Asunto(s)
Phlebovirus , Filogeografía , Síndrome de Trombocitopenia Febril Grave , Phlebovirus/genética , Animales , Asia Sudoriental , Síndrome de Trombocitopenia Febril Grave/virología , Síndrome de Trombocitopenia Febril Grave/transmisión , Humanos , Filogenia , Vectores Arácnidos/virología , Garrapatas/virología , Ixodidae/virología , Especies Introducidas
7.
Front Plant Sci ; 15: 1430027, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39170792

RESUMEN

Specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf dry matter content (LDMC) are key leaf functional traits often used to reflect plant resource utilization strategies and predict plant responses to environmental changes. In general, grassland plants at different elevations exhibit varying survival strategies. However, it remains unclear how grassland plants adapt to changes in elevation and their driving factors. To address this issue, we utilized SLA and LDMC data of grassland plants from 223 study sites at different elevations in China, along with climate and soil data, to investigate variations in resource utilization strategies of grassland plants along different elevational gradients and their dominant influencing factors employing linear mixed-effects models, variance partitioning method, piecewise Structural Equation Modeling, etc. The results show that with increasing elevation, SLA significantly decreases, and LDMC significantly increases (P < 0.001). This indicates different resource utilization strategies of grassland plants across elevation gradients, transitioning from a "faster investment-return" at lower elevations to a "slower investment-return" at higher elevations. Across different elevation gradients, climatic factors are the main factors affecting grassland plant resource utilization strategies, with soil nutrient factors also playing a non-negligible coordinating role. Among these, mean annual precipitation and hottest month mean temperature are key climatic factors influencing SLA of grassland plants, explaining 28.94% and 23.88% of SLA variation, respectively. The key factors affecting LDMC of grassland plants are mainly hottest month mean temperature and soil phosphorus content, with relative importance of 24.24% and 20.27%, respectively. Additionally, the direct effect of elevation on grassland plant resource utilization strategies is greater than its indirect effect (through influencing climatic and soil nutrient factors). These findings emphasize the substantive impact of elevation on grassland plant resource utilization strategies and have important ecological value for grassland management and protection under global change.

8.
Front Plant Sci ; 15: 1363690, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39091321

RESUMEN

Introduction: As an exceptional geographical entity, the vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) exhibits high sensitivity to climate change. The Baima Snow Mountain National Nature Reserve (BNNR) is located in the south-eastern sector of the QTP, serving as a transition area from sub-tropical evergreen broadleaf forest to high-mountain vegetation. However, there has been limited exploration into predicting the temporal and spatial variability of vegetation cover using anti-interference methods to address outliers in long-term historical data. Additionally, the correlation between these variables and environmental factors in natural forests with complex terrain has rarely been analyzed. Methods: This study has developed an advanced approach based on TS (Theil-Sen slope estimator) MK (Mann-Kendall test)-FVC (fractional vegetation cover) to accurately evaluate and predict the time and spatial shifts in FVC within the BNNR, utilizing the GEE (Google Earth Engine). The satellite data utilized in this paper consisted of Landsat images spanning from 1986 to2020. By integrating TS and MK methodologies to monitor and assess the FVC trend, the Hurst index was employed to forecast FVC. Furthermore, the association between FVC and topographic factors was evaluated, the partial correlation between FVC and climatic influences was analyzed at the pixel level (30×30m). Results and discussion: Here are the results of this research: (1) Overall, the FVC of the BNNR exhibits a growth trend, with the mean FVC value increasing from 59.40% in 1986 to 68.67% in 2020. (2) The results based on the TS-MK algorithm showed that the percentage of the area of the study area with an increasing and decreasing trend was 59.03% (significant increase of 28.04%) and 22.13% (significant decrease of 6.42%), respectively. The coupling of the Hurst exponent with the Theil-Sen slope estimator suggests that the majority of regions within the BNNR are projected to sustain an upward trend in FVC in the future. (3) Overlaying the outcomes of TS-MK with the terrain factors revealed that the FVC changes were notably influenced by elevation. The partial correlation analysis between climate factors and vegetation changes indicated that temperature exerts a significant influence on vegetation cover, demonstrating a high spatial correlation.

9.
Environ Monit Assess ; 196(9): 812, 2024 Aug 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39143338

RESUMEN

A vector-borne disease of concern for global public health, dengue fever has been spreading its endemicity and several cases in recent years, particularly in Lahore Pakistan. Dengue transmission is influenced by geo-climatic conditions. This study aimed to map the spatial prevalence of dengue fever in Lahore and its association with geo-climatic factors during the epidemic of the year 2021. In this study, geo-climatic factors that could potentially encourage the growth of the virus are chosen for this study, and their temporal and spatial changeability relate to dengue cases. The objective of this study is to use meteorological, satellite data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to map dengue outbreaks and identify the risk-prone areas by relating geo-climatic factors with dengue outbreaks. The dengue patients and their locations data were collected from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) Lahore. This study uses Google Earth and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRs images to extract geo-climatic and land use parameters. The dot density maps technique was used to represent the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue cases. The hotspot analysis was applied to show the hotspots of dengue cases in district Lahore at the Union Council (UC) level. The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), built-up area, population density, precipitation, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) are the factors employed. In this study, correlation was performed to test the significance between precipitation and the prevalence of dengue fever in Lahore. The results show that the incidence and prevalence of dengue fever month-wise at the UC level in Lahore. The distribution pattern of dengue outbreaks in the Lahore area and its demographic factors were found to be associated. It concludes that the increase in the spread of dengue fever is associated with the monsoon rains. The prevalence of dengue is associated with water bodies and high land surface temperature, but it does not represent any significant relation with vegetation cover and land use in Lahore during the year 2021. The study pinpointed the locations that are most susceptible and require care to prevent such outbreaks in the future.


Asunto(s)
Clima , Dengue , Sistemas de Información Geográfica , Dengue/epidemiología , Pakistán/epidemiología , Humanos , Prevalencia , Brotes de Enfermedades
10.
Children (Basel) ; 11(6)2024 Jun 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38929296

RESUMEN

Respiratory disorders significantly impact adolescents' health, often resulting in hospital admissions. Meteorological elements such as wind patterns have emerged as potential contributors to respiratory symptoms. However, it remains uncertain whether fluctuations in wind characteristics over extended periods have a tangible impact on respiratory health, particularly in regions characterized by distinct annual wind patterns. Crete is situated in the central-eastern Mediterranean Sea and frequently faces southerly winds carrying Sahara Desert sand from Africa and northerly winds from the Aegean Sea. This retrospective study analyzes long-term wind direction data and their relationship to respiratory symptoms observed in children up to 14 years old admitted at the University Hospital of Heraklion between 2002 and 2010. Symptoms such as headache, dyspnea, dry cough, dizziness, tachypnea, throat ache, and earache were predominantly reported during the presence of southern winds. Fever, productive cough, and chest pain were more frequently reported during northern winds. Cough was the most common symptom regardless of the wind pattern. Southern winds were significantly associated with higher probabilities of productive or non-productive cough, headache, dyspnea, tachypnea, dizziness, earache, and throat ache. Northern winds were related to a higher incidence of productive cough. Rhinitis, asthma, allergies, pharyngitis, and sinusitis were related to southern winds, while bronchiolitis and pneumonia were associated with northern winds. These findings underscore the critical role of local climatic factors, emphasizing their potential impact on exacerbating respiratory conditions in children. Moreover, they point out the need for further research to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and develop targeted interventions for at-risk populations.

11.
J Clin Med ; 13(12)2024 Jun 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38929934

RESUMEN

Background/Objectives: Recent studies provide the first indications of the impact of climate factors on human health, especially with individuals already grappling with internal and neurological conditions being particularly vulnerable. In the face of escalating climate change, our research delves into the specific influence of a spectrum of climatic factors and seasonal variations on the hospital admissions of patients receiving treatment for epileptic seizures at our clinic in Kaiserslautern. Methods: Our study encompassed data from 9366 epilepsy patients who were admitted to hospital due to epileptic seizures. We considered seven climate parameters that Germany's National Meteorological Service made available. We employed the Kruskal-Wallis test to examine the correlation between the frequency of admittance to our hospital in the mentioned patient group and seasons. Furthermore, we used conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag linear models (DLMs) to scrutinize the coherence of the frequency of patient admittance and the investigated climate parameters. The mentioned parameters were also analyzed in a subgroup analysis regarding the gender and age of patients and the classification of seizures according to ILAE 2017. Results: Our results demonstrate that climatic factors, such as precipitation and air pressure, can increase the frequency of hospital admissions for seizures in patients with general-onset epilepsy. In contrast, patients with focal seizures are less prone to climatic changes. Consequently, admittance to the hospital for seizures is less affected by climatic factors in the latter patient group. Conclusions: The present study demonstrated that climatic factors are possible trigger factors for the provocation of seizures, particularly in patients with generalized seizures. This was determined indirectly by analyzing the frequency of seizure-related emergency admissions and their relation to prevailing climate factors. Our study is consistent with other studies showing that climate factors, such as cerebral infarcts or cerebral hemorrhages, influence patients' health.

12.
Heliyon ; 10(11): e31666, 2024 Jun 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38845931

RESUMEN

Eradicating malaria remains a big challenge for computer scientists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, entomologists, physicians and many others. Their approaches range from recovering patients to eradicating the disease. However, collaboration, not always efficient between all these scientists, leads to the implementation of incomplete prototypes or to an under-exploitation of their results. Environmental and climatic factors are part of these elements that are usually omitted by computer scientists and mathematicians in the modelling of the malaria spread dynamic. Tropical countries, most affected by the disease are also mostly underdeveloped or developing countries, and therefore, statistical data are often lacking or difficult to access. Populations are constantly in motion over ecosystems with different environmental and climatic conditions, from a region to another. In this paper, we analyse the global asymptotic stability at the disease-free equilibrium of a metapopulation model including climatic factors.

13.
Front Plant Sci ; 15: 1408272, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38855467

RESUMEN

Soil fungi play a critical role in the biogeochemical cycles of forest ecosystems. Larix gmelinii is a strong and important timber tree species, which forms close associations with a wide range of soil fungi. However, the temporal-spatial disparity effects on the assembly of soil fungal communities in L. gmelinii forests are poorly understood. To address these questions, a total of 120 samples, including 60 bulk soil and 60 root samples, were collected from Aershan and Genhe in July (summer) and October (autumn)2021. We obtained 7,788 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) after merging, filtering, and rarefying using high-throughput sequencing. The dominant phyla are Basidiomycota, Ascomycota, Mortierellomycota, and Mucoromycota. There were 13 dominant families, among which the families with average relative abundance more than 5% included Thelephoraceae, Mortierellaceae, Archaeorhizomycoaceae, and Inocybaceae. In the functional guilds, symbiotrophic fungi had a relative advantage in the identified functions, and the relative abundances of pathotrophic and saprotrophic fungi varied significantly between sites. There were 12 families differentially expressed across compartments, 10 families differentially expressed between seasons, and 69 families were differentially expressed between sites. The variation in alpha diversity in the bulk soil was greater than that in the rhizosphere soil. Among the three parts (compartment, season, and site), the site had a crucial effect on the beta diversity of the fungal community. Deterministic processes dominated fungal community assembly in Genhe, whereas stochastic processes dominated in Aershan. Soil physicochemical properties and climatic factors significantly affected fungal community structure, among which soil total nitrogen and pH had the greatest effect. This study highlights that spatial variations play a vital role in the structure and assembly of soil fungal communities in L. gmelinii forests, which is of great significance for us in maintaining the health of the forests.

14.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 31(23): 33960-33974, 2024 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38693457

RESUMEN

The quantity of DNA in angiosperms exhibits variation attributed to many external influences, such as environmental factors, geographical features, or stress factors, which exert constant selection pressure on organisms. Since invasive species possess adaptive capabilities to acclimate to novel environmental conditions, ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) was chosen as a subject for investigating their influence on genome size variation. Slovakia has diverse climatic conditions, suitable for testing the hypothesis that air temperature and precipitation, the main limiting factors of ragweed occurrence, would also have an impact on its genome size. Our results using flow cytometry confirmed this hypothesis and also found a significant association with geographical features such as latitude, altitude, and longitude. We can conclude that plants growing in colder environments farther from oceanic influences exhibit smaller DNA amounts, while optimal growth conditions result in a greater variability in genome size, reflecting the diminished effect of selection pressure.


Asunto(s)
Ambrosia , Tamaño del Genoma , Ambrosia/genética , Eslovaquia , Genoma de Planta
15.
Plants (Basel) ; 13(6)2024 Mar 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38592834

RESUMEN

Specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf dry matter content (LDMC) are key leaf functional traits commonly used to reflect tree resource utilization strategies and predict forest ecosystem responses to environmental changes. Previous research on tree resource utilization strategies (SLA and LDMC) primarily focused on the species level within limited spatial scales, making it crucial to quantify the spatial variability and driving factors of these strategies. Whether there are discrepancies in resource utilization strategies between trees in planted and natural forests, and the dominant factors and mechanisms influencing them, remain unclear. This study, based on field surveys and the literature from 2008 to 2020 covering 263 planted and 434 natural forests in China, using generalized additive models (GAMs) and structural equation models (SEMs), analyzes the spatial differences and dominant factors in tree resource utilization strategies between planted and natural forests. The results show that the SLA of planted forests is significantly higher than that of natural forests (p < 0.01), and LDMC is significantly lower (p < 0.0001), indicating a "faster investment-return" resource utilization strategy. As the mean annual high temperature (MAHT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) steadily rise, trees have adapted their resource utilization strategies, transitioning from a "conservative" survival tactic to a "rapid investment-return" model. Compared to natural forests, planted forest trees exhibit stronger environmental plasticity and greater variability with forest age in their resource utilization strategies. Overall, forest age is the dominant factor influencing resource utilization strategies in both planted and natural forests, having a far greater direct impact than climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and sunlight) and soil nutrient factors. Additionally, as forest age increases, both planted and natural forests show an increase in SLA and a decrease in LDMC, indicating a gradual shift towards more efficient resource utilization strategies.

16.
Plants (Basel) ; 13(4)2024 Feb 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38498537

RESUMEN

Aboveground biomass (AGB) is a key indicator of the physiological status and productivity of grasslands, and its accurate estimation is essential for understanding regional carbon cycles. In this study, we developed a suitable AGB model for grasslands in Xinjiang based on the random forest algorithm, using AGB observation data, remote sensing vegetation indices, and meteorological data. We estimated the grassland AGB from 2000 to 2022, analyzed its spatiotemporal changes, and explored its response to climatic factors. The results showed that (1) the model was reliable (R2 = 0.55, RMSE = 64.33 g·m-2) and accurately estimated the AGB of grassland in Xinjiang; (2) the spatial distribution of grassland AGB in Xinjiang showed high levels in the northwest and low values in the southeast. AGB showed a growing trend in most areas, with a share of 61.19%. Among these areas, lowland meadows showed the fastest growth, with an average annual increment of 0.65 g·m-2·a-1; and (3) Xinjiang's climate exhibited characteristics of warm humidification, and grassland AGB showed a higher correlation with precipitation than temperature. Developing remote sensing models based on random forest algorithms proves an effective approach for estimating AGB, providing fundamental data for maintaining the balance between grass and livestock and for the sustainable use and conservation of grassland resources in Xinjiang, China.

17.
Plants (Basel) ; 13(4)2024 Feb 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38498543

RESUMEN

The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management.

18.
Int J Biometeorol ; 68(6): 1043-1060, 2024 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38453789

RESUMEN

In 2022, Mexico registered an increase in dengue cases compared to the previous year. On the other hand, the amount of precipitation reported annually was slightly less than the previous year. Similarly, the minimum-mean-maximum temperatures recorded annually were below the previous year. In the literature, it is possible to find studies focused on the spread of dengue only for some specific regions of Mexico. However, given the increase in the number of cases during 2022 in regions not considered by previously published works, this study covers cases reported in all states of the country. On the other hand, determining a relationship between the dynamics of dengue cases and climatic factors through a computational model can provide relevant information on the transmission of the virus. A multiple-learning computational approach was developed to simulate the number of the different risks of dengue cases according to the classification reported per epidemiological week by considering climatic factors in Mexico. For the development of the model, the data were obtained from the reports published in the Epidemiological Panorama of Dengue in Mexico and in the National Meteorological Service. The classification of non-severe dengue, dengue with warning signs, and severe dengue were modeled in parallel through an artificial neural network model. Five variables were considered to train the model: the monthly average of the minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, the precipitation, and the number of the epidemiological week. The selection of variables in this work is focused on the spread of the different risks of dengue once the mosquito begins transmitting the virus. Therefore, temperature and precipitation were chosen as climatic factors due to the close relationship between the density of adult mosquitoes and the incidence of the disease. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was applied to fit the coefficients during the learning process. In the results, the ANN model simulated the classification of the different risks of dengue with the following precisions (R2): 0.9684, 0.9721, and 0.8001 for non-severe dengue, with alarm signs and severe, respectively. Applying a correlation matrix and a sensitivity analysis of the ANN model coefficients, both the average minimum temperature and precipitation were relevant to predict the number of dengue cases. Finally, the information discovered in this work can support the decision-making of the Ministry of Health to avoid a syndemic between the increase in dengue cases and other seasonal diseases.


Asunto(s)
Dengue , Redes Neurales de la Computación , México/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiología , Humanos , Tiempo (Meteorología) , Riesgo , Temperatura
19.
Sci Total Environ ; 920: 170886, 2024 Apr 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38360323

RESUMEN

The Eurasian steppe is the largest temperate grassland in the world. The grassland of the Mongolian Plateau (MP) represents an important part of the Eurasian steppe with high climatic sensitivity. Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a key indicator of the grassland's production, status and dynamic on the MP. In this study, we calibrated and evaluated the grassland-specific light use efficiency model (GRASS-LUE) against the observed GPP collected from nine eddy covariance flux sites on the MP, and compared the performance with other four GPP products (MOD17, VPM, GLASS and GOSIF). GRASS-LUE with higher R2 (0.91) and lower root mean square error (RMSE = 0.99 gC m-2 day-1) showed a better performance compared to the four GPP products in terms of model accuracy and dynamic consistency, especially in typical and desert steppe. The parameters of the GRASS-LUE are more suitable for water-limited grassland could be the reason for its outstanding performance in typical and desert steppe. Mean grassland GPP derived from GRASS-LUE was higher in the east and lower in the west of the MP. Grassland GPP was on average 205 gC m-2 over the MP between 2001 and 2020 with mean annual total GPP of 322 TgC yr-1. 30 % of the MP steppe showed a significant GPP increase. Growing season precipitation is the main factor affecting GPP of the MP steppe across regions. Anthropogenic factors (livestock density and population density) had greater effect on GPP than growing season temperature in pastoral counties in IM that take grazing as one of main industries. These findings can inform the status and trend of the productivity of MP steppe and help government and scientific research institutions to understand the drivers for spatial pattern of grassland GPP on the MP.

20.
Chemosphere ; 352: 141439, 2024 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38342145

RESUMEN

Analyzing the influencing factors of fine particulate matter and ozone formation and identifying the coupling relationship between the two are the basis for implementing the synergistic pollutants control. However, the current research on the synergistic relationship between the two still needs to be further explored. Using the Geodetector model, we analyzed the effects of meteorology and emissions on fine particulate matter and ozone concentrations over the "2 + 26" cities at multiple timescales, and also explored the coupling relationship between the two pollutants. Fine particulate matter concentrations showed overall decreasing trends on inter-season and inter-annual scale from 2015 to 2021, whereas ozone concentrations showed overall increasing trends. While ozone concentrations displayed an inverted U-shaped distribution from month to month, fine particulate matter concentrations displayed a U-shaped fluctuation. On inter-annual scale, climatic factors, with planet boundary layer height as the main determinant, have higher effects for both pollutants than human precursors. In summer and autumn, sunshine duration had the most influence on fine particulate matter, while planet boundary layer height was the greatest factor in winter. Fine particulate matter is the leading impacting factor on ozone concentrations in summer, and there were positive associations between them on both annual and seasonal scale. The impact of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds for both pollutants concentrations varied significantly between seasons. The two pollutants concentration were enhanced by the interactions between the various components. On inter-annual scale, interactions between the planet boundary layer height and other factors dominated the concentrations of the two pollutants, whereas in summer, interactions between fine particulate matter and other factors dominated the concentrations of ozone. The study has implications for the treatment of atmospheric pollution in China and other nations and can serve as an important reference for the creation of integrated atmospheric pollution regulation policies over the "2 + 26" cities.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Ozono , Humanos , Material Particulado/análisis , Ozono/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Ciudades , Meteorología , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Estaciones del Año , China
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