RESUMEN

PURPOSE: Black breast cancer (BC) survivors have a higher risk of developing contralateral breast cancer (CBC) than Whites. Existing CBC risk prediction tools are developed based on mostly White women. To address this racial disparity, it is crucial to develop tools tailored for Black women to help them inform about their actual risk of CBC. METHODS: We propose an absolute risk prediction model, CBCRisk-Black, specifically for Black BC patients. It uses data on Black women from two sources: Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER). First, a matched lasso logistic regression model for estimating relative risks (RR) is developed. Then, it is combined with relevant hazard rates and attributable risks to obtain absolute risks. Six-fold cross-validation is used to internally validate CBCRisk-Black. We also compare CBCRisk-Black with CBCRisk, an existing CBC risk prediction model. RESULTS: The RR model uses data from BCSC on 744 Black women (186 cases). CBCRisk-Black has four risk factors (RR compared to baseline): breast density (2.13 for heterogeneous/extremely dense), family history of BC (2.28 for yes), first BC tumor size (2.14 for T3/T4, 1.56 for TIS), and age at first diagnosis of BC (1.41 for < 40). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 3- and 5-year predictions are 0.72 and 0.65 for CBCRisk-Black while those are 0.65 and 0.60 for CBCRisk. CONCLUSION: CBCRisk-Black may serve as a useful tool to clinicians in counseling Black BC patients by providing a more accurate and personalized CBC risk estimate.

Asunto(s)

Neoplasias de la Mama , Supervivientes de Cáncer , Población Negra , Densidad de la Mama , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/etiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/patología , Femenino , Humanos , Factores de Riesgo

RESUMEN

Introducción: La mayoría de los cánceres de mama (CM) se diagnostican en mujeres sin antecedentes familiares y no portadoras de mutaciones de riesgo. En las últimas décadas se ha producido un aumento de mastectomías profilácticas contralaterales (MPC) en estas pacientes. El CBCRisk es un modelo que calcula el riesgo absoluto de cáncer de mama contralateral (CMC) y pretende servir para el asesoramiento de pacientes con CM esporádico sobre la MPC. Método: Análisis observacional retrospectivo de pacientes con un cáncer de mama esporádico sometidas a MPC durante 2017-2019. Análisis descriptivo, comparativo y de regresión logística univariante para identificar factores predictivos de LMAR y/o CMC oculto. Evaluación del modelo CBCRisk publicado en 2017 y distintos valores límite para la recomendación de MPC. Resultados: Se seleccionaron 42 pacientes. Incidencia de LMAR y cáncer oculto (CO) menor que la descrita en la literatura (9,52% LMAR, 2,38% CO). Ninguna de las variables evaluadas alcanzó significación estadística para la predicción de lesiones. El valor de CBCRisk a cinco años medio en pacientes con hallazgos patológicos fue de 2,08 (DE 0,97), superior al CBCRisk medio del conjunto (1,87 ± 0,91) y del subgrupo de MPC sin hallazgos patológicos (1,84 ± 0,91). Solo el CBCRisk ≥ 3 resultó significativo (p = 0,04) para la predicción de hallazgos patológicos. Conclusión: Las pacientes con CM esporádico deben ser adecuadamente informadas de los riesgos y beneficios estimados de la MPC. El CBCRisk puede ser útil para el asesoramiento de estas pacientes, pero precisa validación en cohortes más amplias y prospectivas. (AU)

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Introduction: The great majority of breast cancer (BC) cases are diagnosed in women who have no known family history of the disease and are not carriers of any risk mutation. During the past few decades an increase in the number of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) has been produced in these patients. The CBCRisk model calculates the absolute risk of suffering from contralateral breast cancer (CBC); thus, it can be used to counselling patients with sporadic breast cancer. Method: An observational, retrospective study including sporadic breast cancer patients treated with contralateral prophylactic mastectomy has been conducted between 2017 and 2019. A descriptive and comparative study with one variation of logistic regression has been carried out in order to identify predictive factors of occult tumors (OT) and medium/high risk damage (MHRD). Evaluation of the CBCRisk model published in 2017 and different limit values for the CPM recommendation. Results: 42 patients were selected. Incidence of MHRD and OT was lower than that described in the literatura (9.52% MHRD, 2.38% OT). None of the evaluated variables reached statistical significance for predicting injuries. The average value of CBCRisk 5 years ahead found in patients with pathological findings was 2.08 (SD 0.97), higher than the average value of the whole group (1.87 ± 0.91) and the subgroup without pathological findings (1.84 ± 0.91). Only values ≥ 3 for CBCRisk were considered statistically significant (p = 0.04) for the prediction of histological lesions. Conclusion: Patients with sporadic breast cancer should be adequately informed about the estimated risks and benefits of undergoing a contralateral prophylactic mastectomy. The CBCRisk may be useful for the counseling of these patients, but it requires validation in larger and prospective cohorts. (AU)

Asunto(s)

Humanos , Femenino , Neoplasias de la Mama , Factores de Riesgo , Estudios Retrospectivos , Mastectomía

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: The great majority of breast cancer (BC) cases are diagnosed in women who have no known family history of the disease and are not carriers of any risk mutation. During the past few decades an increase in the number of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) has been produced in these patients. The CBCRisk model calculates the absolute risk of suffering from contralateral breast cancer (CBC); thus, it can be used to counselling patients with sporadic breast cancer. METHOD: An observational, retrospective study including sporadic breast cancer patients treated with contralateral prophylactic mastectomy has been conducted between 2017 and 2019. A descriptive and comparative study with one variation of logistic regression has been carried out in order to identify predictive factors of occult tumors (OT) and medium/high risk damage (MHRD). Evaluation of the CBCRisk model published in 2017 and different limit values for the CPM recommendation. RESULTS: 42 patients were selected. Incidence of MHRD and OT was lower than that described in the literatura (9.52%MHRD, 2.38%OT). None of the evaluated variables reached statistical significance for predicting injuries. The average value of CBCRisk 5 years ahead found in patients with pathological findings was 2.08 (DE 0.97), higher than the average value of the whole group (1.87 ± 0.91) and the subgroup without pathological findings (1.84 ± 0.91). Only values >3 for CBCRisk were considered statistically significant (P = .04) for the prediction of histological lesions. CONCLUSION: Patients with sporadic breast cancer should be adequately informed about the estimated risks and benefits of undergoing a contralateral prophylactic mastectomy. The CBCRisk may be useful for the counseling of these patients, but it requires validation in larger and prospective cohorts.

Asunto(s)

Neoplasias de la Mama , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Femenino , Heterocigoto , Humanos , Mastectomía , Estudios Prospectivos , Estudios Retrospectivos

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: The great majority of breast cancer (BC) cases are diagnosed in women who have no known family history of the disease and are not carriers of any risk mutation. During the past few decades an increase in the number of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) has been produced in these patients. The CBCRisk model calculates the absolute risk of suffering from contralateral breast cancer (CBC); thus, it can be used to counselling patients with sporadic breast cancer. METHOD: An observational, retrospective study including sporadic breast cancer patients treated with contralateral prophylactic mastectomy has been conducted between 2017 and 2019. A descriptive and comparative study with one variation of logistic regression has been carried out in order to identify predictive factors of occult tumors (OT) and medium/high risk damage (MHRD). Evaluation of the CBCRisk model published in 2017 and different limit values for the CPM recommendation. RESULTS: 42 patients were selected. Incidence of MHRD and OT was lower than that described in the literatura (9.52% MHRD, 2.38% OT). None of the evaluated variables reached statistical significance for predicting injuries. The average value of CBCRisk 5 years ahead found in patients with pathological findings was 2.08 (SD 0.97), higher than the average value of the whole group (1.87 ± 0.91) and the subgroup without pathological findings (1.84 ± 0.91). Only values ≥ 3 for CBCRisk were considered statistically significant (p = 0.04) for the prediction of histological lesions. CONCLUSION: Patients with sporadic breast cancer should be adequately informed about the estimated risks and benefits of undergoing a contralateral prophylactic mastectomy. The CBCRisk may be useful for the counseling of these patients, but it requires validation in larger and prospective cohorts.

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: Women diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer are increasingly choosing to remove their other unaffected breast through contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) to reduce the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). Yet a large proportion of CPMs are believed to be medically unnecessary. Thus, there is a pressing need to educate patients effectively on their CBC risk. We had earlier developed a CBC risk prediction model called CBCRisk based on eight personal risk factors. METHODS: In this study, we validate CBCRisk on independent clinical data from the Johns Hopkins University (JH) and MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDA). Women whose first breast cancer diagnosis was either invasive and/or ductal carcinoma in situ and whose age at first diagnosis was between 18 and 88 years were included in the cohorts because CBCRisk was developed specifically for these women. A woman who develops CBC is called a case whereas a woman who does not is called a control. The cohort sizes are 6035 (with 117 CBC cases) for JH and 5185 (with 111 CBC cases) for MDA. We computed the relevant calibration and validation measures for 3- and 5-year risk predictions. RESULTS: We found that the model performs reasonably well for both cohorts. In particular, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the two cohorts range from 0.61 to 0.65. CONCLUSIONS: With this independent validation, CBCRisk can be used confidently in clinical settings for counseling BC patients by providing their individualized CBC risk. In turn, this may potentially help alleviate the rate of medically unnecessary CPMs.

Asunto(s)

Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/patología , Modelos Teóricos , Adulto , Neoplasias de la Mama/cirugía , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Femenino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mastectomía Profiláctica , Curva ROC , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Adulto Joven

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: Patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer (BC) or ductal carcinoma in situ are increasingly choosing to undergo contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) to reduce their risk of contralateral BC (CBC). This is a particularly disturbing trend as a large proportion of these CPMs are believed to be medically unnecessary. Many BC patients tend to substantially overestimate their CBC risk. Thus, there is a pressing need to educate patients effectively on their CBC risk. We develop a CBC risk prediction model to aid physicians in this task. METHODS: We used data from two sources: Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results to build the model. The model building steps are similar to those used in developing the BC risk assessment tool (popularly known as Gail model) for counseling women on their BC risk. Our model, named CBCRisk, is exclusively designed for counseling women diagnosed with unilateral BC on the risk of developing CBC. RESULTS: We identified eight factors to be significantly associated with CBC-age at first BC diagnosis, anti-estrogen therapy, family history of BC, high-risk pre-neoplasia status, estrogen receptor status, breast density, type of first BC, and age at first birth. Combining the relative risk estimates with the relevant hazard rates, CBCRisk projects absolute risk of developing CBC over a given period. CONCLUSIONS: By providing individualized CBC risk estimates, CBCRisk may help in counseling of BC patients. In turn, this may potentially help alleviate the rate of medically unnecessary CPMs.

Asunto(s)

Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/patología , Modelos Estadísticos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Programa de VERF , Adulto Joven