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1.
Stat Med ; 43(20): 3921-3942, 2024 Sep 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38951867

RESUMEN

For survival analysis applications we propose a novel procedure for identifying subgroups with large treatment effects, with focus on subgroups where treatment is potentially detrimental. The approach, termed forest search, is relatively simple and flexible. All-possible subgroups are screened and selected based on hazard ratio thresholds indicative of harm with assessment according to the standard Cox model. By reversing the role of treatment one can seek to identify substantial benefit. We apply a splitting consistency criteria to identify a subgroup considered "maximally consistent with harm." The type-1 error and power for subgroup identification can be quickly approximated by numerical integration. To aid inference we describe a bootstrap bias-corrected Cox model estimator with variance estimated by a Jacknife approximation. We provide a detailed evaluation of operating characteristics in simulations and compare to virtual twins and generalized random forests where we find the proposal to have favorable performance. In particular, in our simulation setting, we find the proposed approach favorably controls the type-1 error for falsely identifying heterogeneity with higher power and classification accuracy for substantial heterogeneous effects. Two real data applications are provided for publicly available datasets from a clinical trial in oncology, and HIV.


Asunto(s)
Simulación por Computador , Infecciones por VIH , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Humanos , Análisis de Supervivencia
2.
Am J Hum Genet ; 111(8): 1770-1781, 2024 Aug 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39047729

RESUMEN

Allele-specific expression plays a crucial role in unraveling various biological mechanisms, including genomic imprinting and gene expression controlled by cis-regulatory variants. However, existing methods for quantification from RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) reads do not adequately and efficiently remove various allele-specific read mapping biases, such as reference bias arising from reads containing the alternative allele that do not map to the reference transcriptome or ambiguous mapping bias caused by reads containing the reference allele that map differently from reads containing the alternative allele. We present Ornaments, a computational tool for rapid and accurate estimation of allele-specific transcript expression at unphased heterozygous loci from RNA-seq reads while correcting for allele-specific read mapping biases. Ornaments removes reference bias by mapping reads to a personalized transcriptome and ambiguous mapping bias by probabilistically assigning reads to multiple transcripts and variant loci they map to. Ornaments is a lightweight extension of kallisto, a popular tool for fast RNA-seq quantification, that improves the efficiency and accuracy of WASP, a popular tool for bias correction in allele-specific read mapping. In experiments with simulated and human lymphoblastoid cell-line RNA-seq reads with the genomes of the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that Ornaments improves the accuracy of WASP and kallisto, is nearly as efficient as kallisto, and is an order of magnitude faster than WASP per sample, with the additional cost of constructing a personalized index for multiple samples. Additionally, we show that Ornaments finds imprinted transcripts with higher sensitivity than WASP, which detects imprinted signals only at gene level.


Asunto(s)
Alelos , Humanos , Transcriptoma/genética , Impresión Genómica , Análisis de Secuencia de ARN/métodos , Programas Informáticos , Perfilación de la Expresión Génica/métodos
3.
J Environ Manage ; 363: 121394, 2024 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38852417

RESUMEN

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time, profoundly impacting global water resources and sustainability. This study aimed to predict the long-term effects of climate change on the Gilgel Gibe watershed by integrating machine learning (ML) methods and climate model scenarios. Utilizing an ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa project, we forecast future climatic conditions. Although global and regional climate simulations offer valuable insights, their limitations necessitate alternative approaches, such as ML, for improved accuracy. Employing an ensemble ML model with Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and CatBoost (CB) algorithms, we assessed various bias-correction methods using historical data from 1993 to 2009. Our results highlight the effectiveness of distribution mapping (DM) in capturing temperature variability and precipitation patterns, using the power transpiration (PT) method to represent precipitation variability. Projections indicate a decline in future precipitation under the RCP 8.5 (-32.2%) and SSP 4.5 (-88.8%) for 2024-2049, with further decreases expected for 2050-2099. Conversely, temperatures will rise under RCP 4.5 (TMAX 0.67 °C) and RCP 8.5 (TMAX 0.25 °C and TMIN 1.11 °C) in the near term, exacerbated by higher emissions under SSP 4.5 and 8.5. By leveraging an ensemble mean of four observed RCMs in an ML framework, our study successfully reproduced future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and (CMIP6) climatic datasets, with the CB model demonstrating superior performance in predicting future precipitation and temperature trends. These findings offer valuable insights for shaping future climate scenarios and informing policy decisions for the Gilgel Gibe Watershed, thereby enhancing water resource management in the basin and its environs.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Aprendizaje Automático , Etiopía , Modelos Teóricos , Algoritmos
4.
Sci Total Environ ; 946: 174158, 2024 Oct 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38909816

RESUMEN

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone (O3) poses significant health risks, particularly respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and mortality. This study addresses the pressing need for accurate O3 forecasting to mitigate these risks, focusing on South Korea. We introduce Deep Bias Correction (Deep-BC), a novel framework leveraging Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to refine hourly O3 forecasts from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Our approach involves training Deep-BC using data from 2016 to 2019, including CMAQ's 72-hour O3 forecasts, 31 meteorological variables from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and previous days' station measurements of 6 air pollutants. Deep-BC significantly outperforms CMAQ in 2021, reducing biases in O3 forecasts. Furthermore, we utilize Deep-BC's daily maximum 8-hour average O3 (MDA8 O3) forecasts as input for the AirQ+ model to assess O3's potential impact on mortality across seven major provinces of South Korea: Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Daejeon, Ulsan, and Sejong. Short-term O3 exposure is associated with 0.40 % to 0.48 % of natural cause and respiratory deaths and 0.67 % to 0.81 % of cardiovascular deaths. Gender-specific analysis reveals higher mortality rates among men, particularly from respiratory causes. Our findings underscore the critical need for region-specific interventions to address air pollution's detrimental effects on public health in South Korea. By providing improved O3 predictions and quantifying its impact on mortality, this research offers valuable insights for formulating targeted strategies to mitigate air pollution's adverse effects. Moreover, we highlight the urgency of proactive measures in health policies, emphasizing the significance of accurate forecasting and effective interventions to safeguard public health from the deleterious effects of air pollution.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Aprendizaje Profundo , Ozono , Ozono/análisis , República de Corea , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Predicción , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/estadística & datos numéricos , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología
5.
Am J Hum Genet ; 111(7): 1481-1493, 2024 07 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38897203

RESUMEN

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major risk factor for heart failure (HF) and has elevated incidence among individuals with HF. Since genetics and HF can independently influence T2D, collider bias may occur when T2D (i.e., collider) is controlled for by design or analysis. Thus, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of diabetes-related HF with correction for collider bias. We first performed a GWAS of HF to identify genetic instrumental variables (GIVs) for HF and to enable bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis between T2D and HF. We identified 61 genomic loci, significantly associated with all-cause HF in 114,275 individuals with HF and over 1.5 million controls of European ancestry. Using a two-sample bidirectional MR approach with 59 and 82 GIVs for HF and T2D, respectively, we estimated that T2D increased HF risk (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.10), while HF also increased T2D risk (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.36-1.88). Then we performed a GWAS of diabetes-related HF corrected for collider bias due to the study design of index cases. After removing the spurious association of TCF7L2 locus due to collider bias, we identified two genome-wide significant loci close to PITX2 (chromosome 4) and CDKN2B-AS1 (chromosome 9) associated with diabetes-related HF in the Million Veteran Program and replicated the associations in the UK Biobank. Our MR findings provide strong evidence that HF increases T2D risk. As a result, collider bias leads to spurious genetic associations of diabetes-related HF, which can be effectively corrected to identify true positive loci.


Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Análisis de la Aleatorización Mendeliana , Humanos , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/genética , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/genética , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/complicaciones , Masculino , Femenino , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido Simple , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo , Anciano , Inhibidor p15 de las Quinasas Dependientes de la Ciclina/genética , Población Blanca/genética , Sesgo , Proteínas de Homeodominio/genética , Factores de Transcripción/genética
6.
Environ Int ; 190: 108818, 2024 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38878653

RESUMEN

Despite advancements in satellite instruments, such as those in geostationary orbit, biases continue to affect the accuracy of satellite data. This research pioneers the use of a deep convolutional neural network to correct bias in tropospheric column density of NO2 (TCDNO2) from the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) during 2021-2023. Initially, we validate GEMS TCDNO2 against Pandora observations and compare its accuracy with measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). GEMS displays acceptable accuracy in TCDNO2 measurements, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.68, an index of agreement (IOA) of 0.79, and a mean absolute bias (MAB) of 5.73321 × 1015 molecules/cm2, though it is not highly accurate. The evaluation showcases moderate to high accuracy of GEMS TCDNO2 across all Pandora stations, with R values spanning from 0.46 to 0.80. Comparing TCDNO2 from GEMS and TROPOMI at TROPOMI overpass time shows satisfactory performance of GEMS TCDNO2 measurements, achieving R, IOA, and MAB values of 0.71, 0.78, and 6.82182 × 1015 molecules/cm2, respectively. However, these figures are overshadowed by TROPOMI's superior accuracy, which reports R, IOA, and MAB values of 0.81, 0.89, and 3.26769 × 1015 molecules/cm2, respectively. While GEMS overestimates TCDNO2 by 52 % at TROPOMI overpass time, TROPOMI underestimates it by 9 %. The deep learning bias corrected GEMS TCDNO2 (GEMS-DL) demonstrates a marked enhancement in the accuracy of original GEMS TCDNO2 measurements. The GEMS-DL product improves R from 0.68 to 0.88, IOA from 0.79 to 0.93, MAB from 5.73321 × 1015 to 2.67659 × 1015 molecules/cm2, and reduces MAB percentage (MABP) from 64 % to 30 %. This represents a significant reduction in bias, exceeding 50 %. Although the original GEMS product overestimates TCDNO2 by 28 %, the GEMS-DL product remarkably minimizes this error, underestimating TCDNO2 by a mere 1 %. Spatial cross-validation across Pandora stations shows a significant reduction in MABP, from a range of 45 %-105.6 % in original GEMS data to 24 %-59 % in GEMS-DL.


Asunto(s)
Aprendizaje Profundo , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Dióxido de Nitrógeno , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/análisis , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Atmósfera/química , Sesgo
7.
J Biopharm Stat ; : 1-7, 2024 Jun 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38836424

RESUMEN

A complete workflow was presented for estimating the concentration of microorganisms in biological samples by automatically counting spots that represent viral plaque forming units (PFU) bacterial colony forming units (CFU), or spot forming units (SFU) in images, and modeling the counts. The workflow was designed for processing images from dilution series but can also be applied to stand-alone images. The accuracy of the methods was greatly improved by adding a newly developed bias correction method. When the spots in images are densely populated, the probability of spot overlapping increases, leading to systematic undercounting. In this paper, this undercount issue was addressed in an empirical way. The proposed empirical bias correction method utilized synthetic images with known spot sizes and counts as a training set, enabling the development of an effective bias correction function using a thin-plate spline model. Its application focused on the bias correction for the automated spot counting algorithm LoST proposed by Lin et al. Simulation results demonstrated that the empirical bias correction significantly improved spot counts, reducing bias for both fixed and random spot sizes and counts.

8.
Int J Epidemiol ; 53(3)2024 Apr 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38715336

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Biobanks typically rely on volunteer-based sampling. This results in large samples (power) at the cost of representativeness (bias). The problem of volunteer bias is debated. Here, we (i) show that volunteering biases associations in UK Biobank (UKB) and (ii) estimate inverse probability (IP) weights that correct for volunteer bias in UKB. METHODS: Drawing on UK Census data, we constructed a subsample representative of UKB's target population, which consists of all individuals invited to participate. Based on demographic variables shared between the UK Census and UKB, we estimated IP weights (IPWs) for each UKB participant. We compared 21 weighted and unweighted bivariate associations between these demographic variables to assess volunteer bias. RESULTS: Volunteer bias in all associations, as naively estimated in UKB, was substantial-in some cases so severe that unweighted estimates had the opposite sign of the association in the target population. For example, older individuals in UKB reported being in better health, in contrast to evidence from the UK Census. Using IPWs in weighted regressions reduced 87% of volunteer bias on average. Volunteer-based sampling reduced the effective sample size of UKB substantially, to 32% of its original size. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates from large-scale biobanks may be misleading due to volunteer bias. We recommend IP weighting to correct for such bias. To aid in the construction of the next generation of biobanks, we provide suggestions on how to best ensure representativeness in a volunteer-based design. For UKB, IPWs have been made available.


Asunto(s)
Sesgo de Selección , Biobanco del Reino Unido , Voluntarios , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Censos , Reino Unido
9.
Stat Methods Med Res ; 33(7): 1197-1210, 2024 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38767225

RESUMEN

In disease surveillance, capture-recapture methods are commonly used to estimate the number of diseased cases in a defined target population. Since the number of cases never identified by any surveillance system cannot be observed, estimation of the case count typically requires at least one crucial assumption about the dependency between surveillance systems. However, such assumptions are generally unverifiable based on the observed data alone. In this paper, we advocate a modeling framework hinging on the choice of a key population-level parameter that reflects dependencies among surveillance streams. With the key dependency parameter as the focus, the proposed method offers the benefits of (a) incorporating expert opinion in the spirit of prior information to guide estimation; (b) providing accessible bias corrections, and (c) leveraging an adapted credible interval approach to facilitate inference. We apply the proposed framework to two real human immunodeficiency virus surveillance datasets exhibiting three-stream and four-stream capture-recapture-based case count estimation. Our approach enables estimation of the number of human immunodeficiency virus positive cases for both examples, under realistic assumptions that are under the investigator's control and can be readily interpreted. The proposed framework also permits principled uncertainty analyses through which a user can acknowledge their level of confidence in assumptions made about the key non-identifiable dependency parameter.


Asunto(s)
Modelos Estadísticos , Humanos , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Testimonio de Experto
10.
Brief Bioinform ; 25(3)2024 Mar 27.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38701410

RESUMEN

Potentially pathogenic or probiotic microbes can be identified by comparing their abundance levels between healthy and diseased populations, or more broadly, by linking microbiome composition with clinical phenotypes or environmental factors. However, in microbiome studies, feature tables provide relative rather than absolute abundance of each feature in each sample, as the microbial loads of the samples and the ratios of sequencing depth to microbial load are both unknown and subject to considerable variation. Moreover, microbiome abundance data are count-valued, often over-dispersed and contain a substantial proportion of zeros. To carry out differential abundance analysis while addressing these challenges, we introduce mbDecoda, a model-based approach for debiased analysis of sparse compositions of microbiomes. mbDecoda employs a zero-inflated negative binomial model, linking mean abundance to the variable of interest through a log link function, and it accommodates the adjustment for confounding factors. To efficiently obtain maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters, an Expectation Maximization algorithm is developed. A minimum coverage interval approach is then proposed to rectify compositional bias, enabling accurate and reliable absolute abundance analysis. Through extensive simulation studies and analysis of real-world microbiome datasets, we demonstrate that mbDecoda compares favorably with state-of-the-art methods in terms of effectiveness, robustness and reproducibility.


Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Microbiota , Humanos , Análisis de Datos
11.
Am Stat ; 78(2): 192-198, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38645436

RESUMEN

Epidemiologic screening programs often make use of tests with small, but non-zero probabilities of misdiagnosis. In this article, we assume the target population is finite with a fixed number of true cases, and that we apply an imperfect test with known sensitivity and specificity to a sample of individuals from the population. In this setting, we propose an enhanced inferential approach for use in conjunction with sampling-based bias-corrected prevalence estimation. While ignoring the finite nature of the population can yield markedly conservative estimates, direct application of a standard finite population correction (FPC) conversely leads to underestimation of variance. We uncover a way to leverage the typical FPC indirectly toward valid statistical inference. In particular, we derive a readily estimable extra variance component induced by misclassification in this specific but arguably common diagnostic testing scenario. Our approach yields a standard error estimate that properly captures the sampling variability of the usual bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimator of disease prevalence. Finally, we develop an adapted Bayesian credible interval for the true prevalence that offers improved frequentist properties (i.e., coverage and width) relative to a Wald-type confidence interval. We report the simulation results to demonstrate the enhanced performance of the proposed inferential methods.

12.
Heliyon ; 10(7): e28433, 2024 Apr 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38571592

RESUMEN

Global warming induces spatially heterogeneous changes in precipitation patterns, highlighting the need to assess these changes at regional scales. This assessment is particularly critical for Afghanistan, where agriculture serves as the primary livelihood for the population. New global climate model (GCM) simulations have recently been released for the recently established shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This requires evaluating projected precipitation changes under these new scenarios and subsequent policy updates. This research employed six GCMs from the CMIP6 to project spatial and temporal precipitation changes across Afghanistan under all SSPs, including SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The employed GCMs were bias-corrected using the Global Precipitation Climatological Center's (GPCC) monthly gridded precipitation data with a 1.0° spatial resolution. Subsequently, the climate change factor was calculated to assess precipitation changes for both the near future (2020-2059) and the distant future (2060-2099). The bias-corrected projections' multi-model ensemble (MME) revealed increased precipitation across most of Afghanistan for SSPs with higher emissions scenarios. The bias-corrected simulations showed a substantial increase in summer precipitation of around 50%, projected under SSP1-1.9 in the southwestern region, while a decline of over 50% is projected in the northwestern region until 2100. The annual precipitation in the northwest region was projected to increase up to 15% for SSP1-2.6. SSP2-4.5 showed a projected annual precipitation increase of around 20% in the southwestern and certain eastern regions in the far future. Furthermore, a substantial rise of approximately 50% in summer precipitation under SSP3-7.0 is expected in the central and western regions in the far future. However, it is crucial to note that the projected changes exhibit considerable uncertainty among different GCMs.

13.
Biometrics ; 80(1)2024 Jan 29.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38488466

RESUMEN

Electronic health records (EHRs) contain rich clinical information for millions of patients and are increasingly used for public health research. However, non-random inclusion of subjects in EHRs can result in selection bias, with factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, healthcare referral patterns, and underlying health status playing a role. While this issue has been well documented, little work has been done to develop or apply bias-correction methods, often due to the fact that most of these factors are unavailable in EHRs. To address this gap, we propose a series of Heckman type bias correction methods by incorporating social determinants of health selection covariates to model the EHR non-random sampling probability. Through simulations under various settings, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in correcting biases in both the association coefficient and the outcome mean. Our method augments the utility of EHRs for public health inferences, as we show by estimating the prevalence of cardiovascular disease and its correlation with risk factors in the New York City network of EHRs.


Asunto(s)
Registros Electrónicos de Salud , Estado de Salud , Humanos , Sesgo de Selección , Factores de Riesgo , Sesgo
14.
Int J Biometeorol ; 68(4): 777-793, 2024 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38427096

RESUMEN

To adapt to Earth's rapidly changing climate, detailed modelling of thermal stress is needed. Dangerous stress levels are becoming more frequent, longer, and more severe. While traditional measurements of thermal stress have focused on air temperature and humidity, modern measures including radiation and wind speed are becoming widespread. However, projecting such indices has presented a challenging problem, due to the need for appropriate bias correction of multiple variables that vary on hourly timescales. In this paper, we aim to provide a detailed understanding of changing thermal stress patterns incorporating modern measurements, bias correction techniques, and hourly projections to assess the impact of climate change on thermal stress at human scales. To achieve these aims, we conduct a case study of projected thermal stress in central Hobart, Australia for 2040-2059, compared to the historical period 1990-2005. We present the first hourly metre-scale projections of thermal stress driven by multivariate bias-corrected data. We bias correct four variables from six dynamically downscaled General Circulation Models. These outputs drive the Solar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry model at metre scale, calculating mean radiant temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index. We demonstrate that multivariate bias correction can correct means on multiple time scales while accurately preserving mean seasonal trends. Changes in mean air temperature and UTCI by hour of the day and month of the year reveal diurnal and annual patterns in both temporal trends and model agreement. We present plots of future median stress values in the context of historical percentiles, revealing trends and patterns not evident in mean data. Our modelling illustrates a future Hobart that experiences higher and more consistent numbers of hours of heat stress arriving earlier in the year and extending further throughout the day.


Asunto(s)
Trastornos de Estrés por Calor , Modelos Teóricos , Humanos , Temperatura , Humedad , Viento , Sensación Térmica
15.
Stat Med ; 43(10): 1993-2006, 2024 May 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38442874

RESUMEN

When designing confirmatory Phase 3 studies, one usually evaluates one or more efficacious and safe treatment option(s) based on data from previous studies. However, several retrospective research articles reported the phenomenon of "diminished treatment effect in Phase 3" based on many case studies. Even under basic assumptions, it was shown that the commonly used estimator could substantially overestimate the efficacy of selected group(s). As alternatives, we propose a class of computational methods to reduce estimation bias and mean squared error with a broader scope of multiple treatment groups and flexibility to accommodate summary results by group as input. Based on simulation studies and a real data example, we provide practical implementation guidance for this class of methods under different scenarios. For more complicated problems, our framework can serve as a starting point with additional layers built in. Proposed methods can also be widely applied to other selection problems.


Asunto(s)
Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Sesgo de Selección , Estudios Retrospectivos , Simulación por Computador , Sesgo
16.
Appl Psychol Meas ; 48(1-2): 38-56, 2024 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38327609

RESUMEN

When using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, a popular approach for Item Response Theory (IRT) models, researchers typically face a tradeoff between the precision and accuracy of the item parameter estimates. Given the pooling principle and variance-dependent shrinkage, the expected behavior of Bayesian hierarchical IRT models is to deliver more precise but biased item parameter estimates, compared to those obtained in nonhierarchical models. Previous research, however, points out the possibility that, in the context of the two-parameter logistic IRT model, the aforementioned tradeoff has not to be made. With a comprehensive simulation study, we provide an in-depth investigation into this possibility. The results show a superior performance, in terms of bias, RMSE and precision, of the hierarchical specifications compared to the nonhierarchical counterpart. Under certain conditions, the bias in the item parameter estimates is independent of the bias in the variance components. Moreover, we provide a bias correction procedure for item discrimination parameter estimates. In sum, we show that IRT models create a unique situation where the Bayesian hierarchical approach indeed yields parameter estimates that are not only more precise, but also more accurate, compared to nonhierarchical approaches. We discuss this beneficial behavior from both theoretical and applied point of views.

17.
J Biopharm Stat ; 34(1): 78-89, 2024 Jan 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36710402

RESUMEN

In vitro dissolution profile has been shown to be correlated with the drug absorption and has often been considered as a metric for assessing in vitro bioequivalence between a test product and corresponding reference one. Various methods have been developed to assess the similarity between two dissolution profiles. In particular, similarity factor f2 has been reviewed and discussed extensively in many statistical articles. Although the f2 lacks inferential statistical properties, the estimation of f2 and its various modified versions were the most widely used metric for comparing dissolution profiles. In this paper, we investigated performances of the naive f2 estimate method, bootstrap f2 confidence interval method and bias corrected-accelerated (BCa) bootstrap f2 confidence interval method for comparing dissolution profiles. Our studies show that naive f2 estimate method and BCa bootstrap f2 confidence interval method are unable to control the type I error rate. The bootstrap f2 confidence interval method can control the type I error rate under a specific level. However, it will cause great conservatism on the power of the test. To solve the potential issues of the previous methods, we recommended a bootstrap bias corrected (BC) f2 confidence interval method in this paper. The type I error rate, power and sensitivity among different f2 methods were compared based on simulations. The recommended bootstrap BC f2 confidence interval method shows better control of type I error than the naive f2 estimate method and BCa bootstrap f2 confidence interval method. It also provides better power than the bootstrap f2 confidence interval method.


Asunto(s)
Factor F , Humanos , Solubilidad , Equivalencia Terapéutica , Sesgo
18.
J Appl Stat ; 50(16): 3384-3404, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37969889

RESUMEN

The direct estimation techniques in small area estimation (SAE) models require sufficiently large sample sizes to provide accurate estimates. Hence, indirect model-based methodologies are developed to incorporate auxiliary information. The most commonly used SAE models, including the Fay-Herriot (FH) model and its extended models, are estimated using marginal likelihood estimation and the Bayesian methods, which rely heavily on the computationally intensive integration of likelihood function. In this article, we propose a Calibrated Hierarchical (CH) likelihood approach to obtain SAE through hierarchical estimation of fixed effects and random effects with the regression calibration method for bias correction. The latent random variables at the domain level are treated as 'parameters' and estimated jointly with other parameters of interest. Then the dispersion parameters are estimated iteratively based on the Laplace approximation of the profile likelihood. The proposed method avoids the intractable integration to estimate the marginal distribution. Hence, it can be applied to a wide class of distributions, including generalized linear mixed models, survival analysis, and joint modeling with distinct distributions. We demonstrate our method using an area-level analysis of publicly available count data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) positive cases.

19.
Inf inference ; 12(4): iaad040, 2023 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37982049

RESUMEN

We consider asymptotically exact inference on the leading canonical correlation directions and strengths between two high-dimensional vectors under sparsity restrictions. In this regard, our main contribution is developing a novel representation of the Canonical Correlation Analysis problem, based on which one can operationalize a one-step bias correction on reasonable initial estimators. Our analytic results in this regard are adaptive over suitable structural restrictions of the high-dimensional nuisance parameters, which, in this set-up, correspond to the covariance matrices of the variables of interest. We further supplement the theoretical guarantees behind our procedures with extensive numerical studies.

20.
PeerJ ; 11: e16411, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38025739

RESUMEN

Background: In observational studies, how the magnitude of potential selection bias in a sensitivity analysis can be quantified is rarely discussed. The purpose of this study was to develop a sensitivity analysis strategy by using the bias-correction index (BCI) approach for quantifying the influence and direction of selection bias. Methods: We used a BCI, a function of selection probabilities conditional on outcome and covariates, with different selection bias scenarios in a logistic regression setting. A bias-correction sensitivity plot was illustrated to analyze the associations between proctoscopy examination and sociodemographic variables obtained using the data from the Taiwan National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and of a subset of individuals who consented to having their health insurance data further linked. Results: We included 15,247 people aged ≥20 years, and 87.74% of whom signed the informed consent. When the entire sample was considered, smokers were less likely to undergo proctoscopic examination (odds ratio (OR): 0.69, 95% CI [0.57-0.84]), than nonsmokers were. When the data of only the people who provided consent were considered, the OR was 0.76 (95% CI [0.62-0.94]). The bias-correction sensitivity plot indicated varying ORs under different degrees of selection bias. Conclusions: When data are only available in a subsample of a population, a bias-correction sensitivity plot can be used to easily visualize varying ORs under different selection bias scenarios. The similar strategy can be applied to models other than logistic regression if an appropriate BCI is derived.


Asunto(s)
Consentimiento Informado , Seguro de Salud , Humanos , Sesgo de Selección , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Oportunidad Relativa
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