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Background: Ross River virus (RRV), Australia's most notifiable vector-borne disease transmitted through mosquito bites, has seen increased transmission due to rising temperatures. Quantifying the burden of RRV infection attributable to increasing temperatures (both current and future) is pivotal to inform prevention strategies in the context of climate change. Methods: As RRV-related deaths are rare in Australia, we utilised years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with RRV infection data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Burden of Disease database between 2003 and 2018. We obtained relative risks per 1 °C temperature increase in RRV infection from a previous meta-analysis. Exposure distributions for each Köppen-Geiger climate zone were calculated separately and compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution to calculate RRV burden attributable to increasing temperatures during the baseline period (2003-2018), and projected future burdens for the 2030s and 2050s under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two adaptation scenarios, and different population growth series. Findings: During the baseline period (2003-2018), increasing mean temperatures contributed to 35.8 (±0.5) YLDs (19.1%) of the observed RRV burden in Australia. The mean temperature attributable RRV burden varied across climate zones and jurisdictions. Under both RCP scenarios, the projected RRV burden is estimated to increase in the future despite adaptation scenarios. By the 2050s, without adaptation, the RRV burden could reach 45.8 YLDs under RCP4.5 and 51.1 YLDs under RCP8.5. Implementing a 10% adaptation strategy could reduce RRV burden to 41.8 and 46.4 YLDs, respectively. Interpretation: These findings provide scientific evidence for informing policy decisions and guiding resource allocation for mitigating the future RRV burden. The current findings underscore the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive disease control and prevention. Funding: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

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BACKGROUND: Long-term ozone (O3) exposure has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in mounting cohort evidence, yet its relationship with incident CVD was poorly understood, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) experiencing high ambient air pollution. METHODS: We carried out a nationwide perspective cohort study from 2010 through 2018 by dynamically enrolling 36948 participants across Chinese mainland. Warm-season (April-September) O3 concentrations were estimated using satellite-based machine-learning models with national coverage. Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying exposures was employed to evaluate the association of long-term O3 exposure with incident CVD (overall CVD, hypertension, stroke, and coronary heart disease [CHD]). Assuming causality, a counterfactual framework was employed to estimate O3-attributable CVD burden based on the exposure-response (E-R) relationship obtained from this study. Decomposition analysis was utilized to quantify the contributions of four key direct driving factors (O3 exposure, population size, age structure, and incidence rate) to the net change of O3-related CVD cases between 2010 and 2018. RESULTS: A total of 4428 CVD, 2600 hypertension, 1174 stroke, and 337 CHD events were reported during 9-year follow-up. Each 10-µg/m³ increase in warm-season O3 was associated with an incident risk of 1.078 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.050-1.106) for overall CVD, 1.098 (95% CI: 1.062-1.135) for hypertension, 1.073 (95% CI: 1.019-1.131) for stroke, and 1.150 (95% CI: 1.038-1.274) for CHD, respectively. We observed no departure from linear E-R relationships of O3 exposure with overall CVD (Pnonlinear= 0.22), hypertension (Pnonlinear= 0.19), stroke (Pnonlinear= 0.70), and CHD (Pnonlinear= 0.44) at a broad concentration range of 60-160 µg/m3. Compared with rural dwellers, those residing in urban areas were at significantly greater O3-associated incident risks of overall CVD, hypertension, and stroke. We estimated 1.22 million (10.6% of overall CVD in 2018) incident CVD cases could be attributable to ambient O3 pollution in 2018, representing an overall 40.9% growth (0.36 million) compared to 2010 (0.87 million, 9.7% of overall CVD in 2010). This remarkable rise in O3-attributable CVD cases was primary driven by population aging (+24.0%), followed by increase in O3 concentration (+10.5%) and population size (+6.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term O3 exposure was associated with an elevated risk and burden of incident CVD in Chinese adults, especially among urban dwellers. Our findings underscored policy priorities of implementing joint control measures for fine particulate matter and O3 in the context of accelerated urbanization and population aging in China.

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Household air pollution prevails in rural residences across China, yet a comprehensive nationwide comprehending of pollution levels and the attributable disease burdens remains lacking. This study conducted a systematic review focusing on elucidating the indoor concentrations of prevalent household air pollutants-specifically, PM2.5, PAHs, CO, SO2, and formaldehyde-in rural Chinese households. Subsequently, the premature deaths and economic losses attributable to household air pollution among the rural population of China were quantified through dose-response relationships and the value of statistical life. The findings reveal that rural indoor air pollution levels frequently exceed China's national standards, exhibiting notable spatial disparities. The estimated annual premature mortality attributable to household air pollution in rural China amounts to 966 thousand (95% CI: 714-1226) deaths between 2000 and 2022, representing approximately 22.2% (95% CI: 16.4%-28.1%) of total mortality among rural Chinese residents. Furthermore, the economic toll associated with these premature deaths is estimated at 486 billion CNY (95% CI: 358-616) per annum, constituting 0.92% (95% CI: 0.68%-1.16%) of China's GDP. The findings quantitatively demonstrate the substantial disease burden attributable to household air pollution in rural China, which highlights the pressing imperative for targeted, region-specific interventions to ameliorate this pressing public health concern.

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Resumen Antecedentes: Durante décadas, México ha transitado de las enfermedades infecciosas a las crónicas y la violencia, debido a cambios en los estilos de vida y la urbanización. Objetivo: Describir el impacto en salud de los factores de riesgo en México entre 1990 y 2021. Material y métodos: Se utilizaron las estimaciones del Global Burden of Disease para analizar la mortalidad y años de vida saludable (AVISA) perdidos atribuibles a factores de riesgo, estratificados por edad, sexo y estado. Resultados: Los factores de riesgo representaron 14.9 millones de AVISA en 2021, 32.4 % del total nacional, con predominio de los riesgos metabólicos (19.8 %). La mortalidad estandarizada por edad debida a estos riesgos se incrementó 6.5 % de 1990 a 2021 y los riesgos conductuales y ambientales se redujeron en más de 50 %. Los factores predominantes cambiaron de desnutrición, problemas de acceso al agua potable y saneamiento en 1990 a altos niveles de glucosa y obesidad en 2021; la desnutrición fue el mayor riesgo en los niños menores de cinco años. Conclusiones: México afronta desafíos sanitarios dobles, la desnutrición infantil continúa y los riesgos metabólicos en adultos se incrementan, sobre todo en los estados menos desarrollados, por lo que se requieren intervenciones específicas para amenazas nuevas y existentes.

Abstract Background: Over the past decades, Mexico's health landscape has shifted from infectious to non-communicable diseases and violence, mirroring lifestyle, urbanization, and developmental changes. Objective: To describe the impact of risk factors on health in Mexico from 1990 to 2021. Material and methods: Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study estimates, we describe risk factor-related mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in Mexico (1990-2021) by age, sex, and state of the country. Results: In 2021, risk factors led to 14.9 (12.9-16.7) million DALYs, which accounted for 32.4 % of Mexico's burden. Metabolic risks, with 19.8% (17.0-21.9 %) were the main contributors. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized all-cause mortality rate associated with metabolic risks increased by 6.5%, while behavioral and environmental risks decreased by more than 50%, with marked variations between states. The predominant risk factors shifted from malnutrition and unsafe water and sanitation in 1990 to high glucose and body mass index in 2021. Malnutrition-related risks have the highest impact on health loss in children younger than 5 years. Conclusions: Mexico faces a dual health challenge: childhood malnutrition persists, and adult metabolic risks are on the rise, particularly in less developed states, with targeted interventions for traditional and emerging health threats being required.

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BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence regarding the adverse impact of particulate matters (PMs) on multiple body systems from both epidemiological and mechanistic studies. The association between size-fractionated PMs and mortality risk, as well as the burden of a whole spectrum of causes of death, remains poorly characterized. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine the wide range of susceptible diseases affected by different sizes of PMs. We also assessed the association between PMs with an aerodynamic diameter less than 1 µm (PM1), 2.5 µm (PM2.5), and 10 µm (PM10) and deaths from 36 causes in Guangzhou, China. METHODS: Daily data were obtained on cause-specific mortality, PMs, and meteorology from 2014 to 2016. A time-stratified case-crossover approach was applied to estimate the risk and burden of cause-specific mortality attributable to PMs after adjusting for potential confounding variables, such as long-term trend and seasonality, relative humidity, temperature, air pressure, and public holidays. Stratification analyses were further conducted to explore the potential modification effects of season and demographic characteristics (eg, gender and age). We also assessed the reduction in mortality achieved by meeting the new air quality guidelines set by the World Health Organization (WHO). RESULTS: Positive and monotonic associations were generally observed between PMs and mortality. For every 10 µg/m3 increase in 4-day moving average concentrations of PM1, PM2.5, and PM10, the risk of all-cause mortality increased by 2.00% (95% CI 1.08%-2.92%), 1.54% (95% CI 0.93%-2.16%), and 1.38% (95% CI 0.95%-1.82%), respectively. Significant effects of size-fractionated PMs were observed for deaths attributed to nonaccidental causes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, neoplasms, chronic rheumatic heart diseases, hypertensive diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, stroke, influenza, and pneumonia. If daily concentrations of PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 reached the WHO target levels of 10, 15, and 45 µg/m3, 7921 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4454-11,206), 8303 (95% eCI 5063-11,248), and 8326 (95% eCI 5980-10690) deaths could be prevented, respectively. The effect estimates of PMs were relatively higher during hot months, among female individuals, and among those aged 85 years and older, although the differences between subgroups were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: We observed positive and monotonical exposure-response curves between PMs and deaths from several diseases. The effect of PM1 was stronger on mortality than that of PM2.5 and PM10. A substantial number of premature deaths could be preventable by adhering to the WHO's new guidelines for PMs. Our findings highlight the importance of a size-based strategy in controlling PMs and managing their health impact.

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Background: Despite increasing public concerns about the widespread health effects of climate change, the impacts of ambient temperature on atopic dermatitis (AD) remain poorly understood. Objectives: We aimed to explore the effect of ambient temperature on AD and to estimate the burdens of AD attributed to extreme temperature. Methods: Data on outpatients with AD and climate conditions in Chengdu, China were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was adopted to explore the association between daily mean temperature and AD outpatient visits. Subgroup analysis was used to identify vulnerable populations. Attributable burden was estimated by the epidemiological attributable method. Results: We analyzed 10,747 outpatient visits from AD patients at West China Hospital in Chengdu between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020. Both low (<19.6 °C) and high temperatures (>25.3 °C) were associated with increased AD outpatient visits, with the increase being more pronounced at low temperature, as evidenced by a 160% increase in visits when the temperature dropped below zero from the minimum mortality temperature (22.8 °C). Children and males were the most susceptible populations. Approximately 25.4% of AD outpatient visits were associated with temperatures, causing an excessive 137161.5 US dollars of health care expenditures during this 6-year period. Conclusions: Both high and low temperatures, particularly low temperatures, were significantly associated with an increased risk of AD, with children and males showing the strongest associations. Extreme environmental temperature has been identified as one of the major factors promoting the development of AD. However, individual patient-level exposures still needed to be investigated in future studies to confirm the causality between temperature and AD.

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BACKGROUND: Global warming and increasing extreme weather have become a severe problem in recent years, posing a significant threat to human health worldwide. Research exploring the link between injury as one of the leading causes of death globally and ambient temperature was lacking. Based on the hourly injury emergency ambulance dispatch (IEAD) records from 2019-2021 in the main urban area of Chongqing, this study explored the role of temperature extremes on the pathogenesis of injury by different mechanisms and identified sensitive populations for different mechanisms of injury. METHODS: In this study, we collected hourly injury emergency ambulance dispatch (IEAD) records from Chongqing Emergency Dispatch Center in the main urban area of Chongqing from 2019 to 2021, and used a distributed lagged nonlinear model (DLNM) with quasi-Poisson distribution to evaluate the association between ambient temperature and IEADs. And the stratified analysis was performed by gender, age and different injury mechanisms to identify susceptible groups. Finally, the attributable burden of ambient extreme temperatures was also investigated. RESULTS: The risk for total IEADs increased significantly at high temperature (32 °C) compared with optimal temperature (9 °C) (CRR: 1.210; 95%CI[1.127,1.300]). The risks of traffic accident injury (CRR: 1.346; 95%CI[1.167,1.552]), beating injury (CRR: 1.508; 95%CI[1.165,1.952]), fall-height injury (CRR: 1.871; 95%CI[1.196-2.926]) and injury of sharp penetration (CRR: 2.112; 95%CI[1.388-3.213]) were significantly increased. At low temperature (7 °C), the risk of fall injury (CRR: 1.220; 95% CI [1.063,1.400]) increased significantly. Lag for 24 hours at extreme low temperature (5 °C), the risk of 18-45 years (RR: 1.016; 95%CI[1.009,1.024]) and over 60 years of age (RR: 1.019; 95%CI[1.011,1.025]) increased significantly. The effect of 0 h delay in extreme high temperature (36 °C) on males aged 18-45 years (RR: 1.115; 95%CI[1.071,1.162]) and 46-59 years (RR: 1.069; 95%CI[1.023,1.115]) had significant impact on injury risk. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that ambient temperature was significantly related to the risk of injury, and different mechanisms of injury were affected differently by extreme temperature. The increasing risk of traffic accident injury, beating injury, fall-height injury and sharp penetrating injury was associated with extreme heat, while fall injury was associated with extreme cold. The risk of injury in high temperature environment was mainly concentrated in males and young adults. The results of this study can help to identify the sensitive population with different injury mechanisms in extreme temperature environment, and provide reference for public health emergency departments to respond to relevant strategies in extreme temperature environment to minimize the potential risk to the public.

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Numerous studies have investigated the associations between COVID-19 risks and long-term exposure to air pollutants, revealing considerable heterogeneity and even contradictory regional results. Studying the spatial heterogeneity of the associations is essential for developing region-specific and cost-effective air-pollutant-related public health policies for the prevention and control of COVID-19. However, few studies have investigated this issue. Using the USA as an example, we constructed single/two-pollutant conditional autoregressions with random coefficients and random intercepts to map the associations between five air pollutants (PM2.5, O3, SO2, NO2, and CO) and two COVID-19 outcomes (incidence and mortality) at the state level. The attributed cases and deaths were then mapped at the county level. This study included 3108 counties from 49 states within the continental USA. The county-level air pollutant concentrations from 2017 to 2019 were used as long-term exposures, and the county-level cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths through May 13, 2022, were used as outcomes. Results showed that considerably heterogeneous associations and attributable COVID-19 burdens were found in the USA. The COVID-19 outcomes in the western and northeastern states appeared to be unaffected by any of the five pollutants. The east of the USA bore the greatest COVID-19 burdens attributable to air pollution because of its high pollutant concentrations and significantly positive associations. PM2.5 and CO were significantly positively associated with COVID-19 incidence in 49 states on average, whereas NO2 and SO2 were significantly positively associated with COVID-19 mortality. The remaining associations between air pollutants and COVID-19 outcomes were not statistically significant. Our study provided implications regarding where a major concern should be placed on a specific air pollutant for COVID-19 control and prevention, as well as where and how to conduct additional individual-based validation research in a cost-effective manner.

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BACKGROUND: Over the past decades, Mexico's health landscape has shifted from infectious to non-communicable diseases and violence, mirroring lifestyle, urbanization, and developmental changes. OBJECTIVE: To describe the impact of risk factors on health in Mexico from 1990 to 2021. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study estimates, we describe risk factor-related mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in Mexico (1990-2021) by age, sex, and state of the country. RESULTS: In 2021, risk factors led to 14.9 (12.9-16.7) million DALYs, which accounted for 32.4% of Mexico's burden. Metabolic risks, with 19.8% (17.0-21.9%), were the main contributors. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized all-cause mortality rate associated with metabolic risks increased by 6.5%, while behavioral and environmental risks decreased by more than 50%, with marked variations between states. The predominant risk factors shifted from malnutrition and unsafe water and sanitation in 1990 to high glucose and body mass index in 2021. Malnutrition-related risks have the highest impact on health loss in children younger than 5 years. CONCLUSION: Mexico faces a dual health challenge: childhood malnutrition persists, and adult metabolic risks are on the rise, particularly in less developed states, with targeted interventions for traditional and emerging health threats being required.

ANTECEDENTES: Durante décadas, México ha transitado de las enfermedades infecciosas a las crónicas y la violencia, debido a cambios en los estilos de vida y la urbanización. OBJETIVO: Describir el impacto en salud de los factores de riesgo en México entre 1990 y 2021. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizaron las estimaciones del Global Burden of Disease para analizar la mortalidad y años de vida saludable (AVISA) perdidos atribuibles a factores de riesgo, estratificados por edad, sexo y estado. RESULTADOS: Los factores de riesgo representaron 14.9 millones de AVISA en 2021, 32.4 % del total nacional, con predominio de los riesgos metabólicos (19.8 %). La mortalidad estandarizada por edad debida a estos riesgos se incrementó 6.5 % de 1990 a 2021 y los riesgos conductuales y ambientales se redujeron en más de 50 %. Los factores predominantes cambiaron de desnutrición, problemas de acceso al agua potable y saneamiento en 1990 a altos niveles de glucosa y obesidad en 2021; la desnutrición fue el mayor riesgo en los niños menores de cinco años. CONCLUSIONES: México afronta desafíos sanitarios dobles, la desnutrición infantil continúa y los riesgos metabólicos en adultos se incrementan, sobre todo en los estados menos desarrollados, por lo que se requieren intervenciones específicas para amenazas nuevas y existentes.

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Background: Alcohol use and its burden constitute one of the largest public health challenges in the WHO European Region. Raising alcohol taxes is a cost-effective "best buy" measure to reduce alcohol consumption, but its implementation remains uneven. This paper provides an overview of existing tax structures in 50 countries and subregions of the Region, estimates their proportions of tax on retail prices of beer, wine, and spirits, and quantifies the number of deaths that could be averted annually if these tax shares were raised to a minimum level. Methods: Review of databases and statistical reports on taxes and mean retail prices of alcohol beverages in the Region. Affordability was calculated based on alcohol prices, adjusted for differences in purchasing power. Consumption changes and averted mortality were modelled assuming two scenarios. In Scenario 1, a minimum excise tax share level of 25% of the beverage-specific retail price was assumed for all countries. In Scenario 2, in addition to a minimum excise tax share level of 15% it was assumed that per unit of ethanol minimal retail prices were the same irrespective of alcoholic beverages (equalisation). Sensitivity analyses were conducted for different price elasticities. Findings: Alcohol is very affordable in the Region and alcohol taxes have clearly been under-utilized as a public health measure, constituting on average only 5·7%, 14·0% and 31·3% of the retail prices of wine, beer, and spirits, respectively. Tax shares were higher in the eastern part of the Region compared to the EU, where various countries did not have excise taxes on wine. Annually, the introduction of a minimum tax share of 25% (Scenario 1) could avert 40,033 (95% CI: 38,054-46,097) deaths in the WHO European Region (with 753,454,300 inhabitants older than 15 years of age). If a 15% tax share with equalisation were implemented (Scenario 2), 132,906 (95% CI: (124,691-151,674) deaths could be averted. All sensitivity analyses with different elasticities yielded outcomes close to those of the main analyses. Interpretation: Similar to tobacco taxes, increasing alcohol taxes should be considered to be a health-based measure aimed at saving lives. Many countries have hesitated to apply higher taxes to alcohol, but the present results show a clear health benefit as a result of implementing a minimum tax share. Funding: This work was supported by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (1R01AA028224) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Institute of Neurosciences, and Mental Health and Addiction (SMN-13950).

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BACKGROUND: Human beings and society are experiencing substantial consequences caused by non-optimum temperatures. However, limited studies have assessed the economic burden of premature deaths attributable to non-optimum temperatures. OBJECTIVES: To characterize the association between daily mean temperature and the economic burden of premature deaths. METHODS: A total of 3 228 098 deaths were identified from a national mortality dataset in Italy during 2015 and 2019. We used the value of statistical life to quantify the economic losses of premature death. A two-stage time-series analysis was performed to evaluate the economic losses of premature deaths associated with non-optimum temperatures. Attributable burden for non-optimum temperatures compared with minimum risk temperature were estimated. Potential effect modifiers were further explored. RESULTS: From 2015 to 2019, the economic loss of premature deaths due to non-optimum temperatures was $525.52 billion (95% CI: $461.84-$580.80 billion), with the attributable fraction of 5.74% (95% CI: 5.04%-6.34%). Attributable economic burden was largely due to moderate cold temperatures ($309.54 billion, 95% CI: $249.49-$357.34 billion). A higher economic burden was observed for people above the age of 65, accounting for 75.97% ($452.42, 95%CI: $406.97-$488.76 billion) of the total economic burden. In particular, higher fractions attributable to heat temperatures were observed for provinces with the lowest level of GDP per capita but the highest level of urbanization. DISCUSSION: This study shows a considerable economic burden of premature deaths attributed to non-optimum temperatures. These figures can help inform tailored prevention to tackle the large economic burden imposed by non-optimum temperatures.

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Background As traditional chemical and physical hazards as well as associated adverse health outcomes in workplace were wildly controlled in the past half century, the prevalence and disease burden of low back pain (LBP) have drawn more and more attention and become one of the important public health problems in the world. Objective To analyze the health loss and attributable disease burden of ergonomic risk factors for LBP in two major categories of occupations in China, aiming to provide evidence for formulating effective prevention and control policies of LBP in the workplace. Methods Based on the methodological framework of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), a meta-analysis was firstly applied to summarize relevant literature results and estimate the prevalence of LBP in two occupational groups (including technicians and associate professionals and machine operators and assemblers) by different age groups in China. Then important epidemiologic parameters (including disability weight, remission rate, and incidence) from GBD 2019 were used to estimate mean duration of disease and age at onset using DisMod II software, and to calculate health loss indexes in the selected occupational groups in China in 2013, such as years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of LBP and its attributable fractions by ergonomic risk factors, which were compared to the outcome of GBD 2013. Results After the adjustment by DisMod II, the prevalence rate of LBP was 13.00% in technicians and associate professionals (11.25% for males and 14.84% for females) and 14.80% in machine operators and assemblers (13.56% for males and 16.10% for females) in 2013, which increased with age. The DALY rate of LBP was 8.02‰ in technicians and associate professionals (7.68‰ for males and 8.33‰ for females) and 10.34‰ in machine operators and assemblers (10.30‰ for males and 10.44‰ for females), which also showed an overall increasing trend with age. In 2013, the population attributable fraction (PAF) of ergonomic risk factors to LBP was 11.42% in technicians and associate professionals and 29.17% in machine operators and assemblers. The DALY of LBP attributable to ergonomics risk factors was 4498 person-years (2108 person-years for males), with the highest DALY in the 45-49 year group (951 person-years), and the attributable DALY rate was 0.92‰ in technicians and associate professionals. The DALY of LBP attributable to ergonomics risk factors was 48529 person-years (33046 person-years for males), with the highest DALY in the 40-44 year group (10852 person-years), and the attributable DALY rate was 3.02‰ in machine operators and assemblers. Regarding LBP-associated DALY rate, in the 20 years of age and above group, both occupational groups (technicians and associate professionals: 8.06‰, machine operators and assemblers: 10.66‰) showed higher values than the general population (3.55‰). In the 20 years of age and above group, the DALY rates attributable to ergonomic risk factors with the order from high to low were machine operators and assemblers (3.11‰), general population (1.10‰) and technicians and associate professionals (0.92‰). Conclusion The LBP-associated disease burden is heavier in the two Chinese occupational groups than in general population. Reducing the disease burden of LBP by interventions targeting ergonomic risk factors in machine operators and assemblers is more effective than that in technicians and associate professionals as the results of attributable burden of disease suggest.

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CONTEXT: Accelerating evidence of endocrine-related morbidity has raised alarm about the ubiquitous use of phthalates in the human environment, but studies have not directly evaluated mortality in relation to these exposures. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate associations of phthalate exposure with mortality, and quantify attributable mortality and lost economic productivity in 2013-4 among 55-64 year olds. DESIGN: This nationally representative cohort study included 5303 adults aged 20 years or older who participated in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2010 and provided urine samples for phthalate metabolite measurements. Participants were linked to mortality data from survey date through December 31, 2015. Data analyses were conducted in July 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. RESULTS: Multivariable models identified increased mortality in relation to high-molecular weight (HMW) phthalate metabolites, especially those of di-2-ethylhexylphthalate (DEHP). Hazard ratios (HR) for continuous HMW and DEHP metabolites were 1.14 (95% CI 1.06-1.23) and 1.10 (95% CI 1.03-1.19), respectively, with consistently higher mortality in the third tertile (1.48, 95% CI 1.19-1.86; and 1.42, 95% CI 1.13-1.78). Cardiovascular mortality was significantly increased in relation to a prominent DEHP metabolite, mono-(2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl)phthalate. Extrapolating to the population of 55-64 year old Americans, we identified 90,761-107,283 attributable deaths and $39.9-47.1 billion in lost economic productivity. CONCLUSIONS: In a nationally representative sample, phthalate exposures were associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, with societal costs approximating $39 billion/year or more. While further studies are needed to corroborate observations and identify mechanisms, regulatory action is urgently needed.

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Background: Exposure to 2.5-micron diameter air pollutants (PM 2.5) has been associated with an increased risk of illness and death worldwide; however, in Latin American health impacts assessment of this risk factor is scarce. Medellín is one of the most polluted cities in the region, with a population growth rate that is twice as high as that of other Colombian cities, which implies a growing population at risk. Methods: A descriptive study of the disease burden was carried out using the city as the unit of observation. Health events were selected based on epidemiologic evidence and the availability of the population attributable fraction associated with PM 2.5. The mortality records were taken from the module of deceased of the Single Registry of Affiliates of the Health System; the morbidity records were taken from the Individual Health Services Registries. For the estimation of the burden of disease, the current Global Burden of Disease guidelines were followed. Results: Attributable disability-adjusted life years to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 pollution (DALYs PM2.5) constituted 13.8% of total burden of the city. Males showed the greatest loss of DALYs PM2.5 due to acute events, while in women the greatest loss was due to chronic events. Ischemic heart disease, chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract, and influenza and pneumonia were the events that contributed the most to DALYs PM2.5. 71.4% of the DALYs PM2.5 corresponded to mortality, mainly in the population over 65 years of age. Regarding attributable morbidity, acute events were more prevalent in both sexes, especially due to respiratory diseases Conclusion: Premature death among the elderly population has the greatest weight on burden of disease attributable to ambient PM 2.5 pollution, mainly due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, without significant differences according to gender.

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AIM: This study aimed to examine if there is an interaction between alcohol use and human development in terms of their associations with alcohol-attributable health harms. DESIGN: Statistical modelling of global country- and region-specific data from 2016. SETTING: Global. PARTICIPANTS/CASES: The units of the analyses were countries (n = 180) and regions (n = 4) based on their Human Development Index (HDI). MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol-attributable harms [deaths, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost] and risk relations were based on a recent study using World Health Organization (WHO) estimates for 2016. Human development was measured using the HDI, a summary score of life expectancy, education and gross national income from the United Nations Development Programme. Interactions between HDI and adult per-capita consumption (APC) affecting alcohol-attributable harms were assessed using likelihood ratio tests. Differences in alcohol-attributable harms per litre of APC between HDI groups were assessed using regression analyses and a reference group of low HDI. FINDINGS: APC is associated with alcohol-attributable deaths, YLL, YLDs and DALYs lost, while HDI is associated with alcohol-attributable deaths, YLL and DALYs lost. Statistical analyses indicated there is an interaction between HDI and APC in their associations with alcohol-attributable deaths, YLL and DALYs lost per 100 000 people. The alcohol-attributable burden was highest in low HDI countries, with 11.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 10.75, 12.40] deaths and 495.61 (95% CI = 461.83, 569.23) DALYs lost per 100 000 people per litre of APC, and lowest in very high HDI countries, with 4.15 (95% CI = 2.46, 5.71) deaths and 200.31 (95% CI = 122.78, 265.10) DALYs lost per 100 000 people per litre of APC. However, no statistical differences between low and very high HDI groupings for these burdens were observed. CONCLUSIONS: There appears to be an interaction between the Human Development Index and alcohol use in their associations with alcohol-attributable deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years lost but not with alcohol-attributable years lived with disability. Alcohol appears to have a stronger harmful impact per litre of alcohol consumed in lesser developed countries than in developed countries.

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ISSUES: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has long been characterised as a region with weak alcohol policies, high proportions of abstainers and heavy episodic drinkers (among drinkers), and as a target for market expansion by global alcohol producers. However, inter-regional analyses of these issues are seldom conducted. APPROACH: Focusing mainly on the period 2000-2016, we compare alcohol consumption and harms, alcohol policy developments and alcohol industry activities over time and across the four sub-regions of SSA. KEY FINDINGS: Per-capita consumption of alcohol and alcohol-related disease burden have increased in Central Africa but stabilised or reduced in other regions, although they are still high. Most countries have implemented tax policies, but they have seldom adopted other World Health Organization 'best buys' for cost-effective alcohol control policies. Countries range from having minimal alcohol controls to having total bans (e.g. some Muslim-majority countries); and some, such as Botswana, have attempted stringent tax policies to address alcohol harm. Alcohol producers have continued their aggressive marketing and policy interference activities, some of which have been highlighted and, in a few instances, resisted by civil society and public health advocates, particularly in southern Africa. IMPLICATIONS: Increased government support and commitment are needed to be able to adopt and implement effective alcohol policies and respond to pressures from alcohol companies to which SSA remains a target market. CONCLUSION: SSA needs effective alcohol control measures in order to reverse the trajectory of worsening alcohol harms observed in some countries and reinforce improvements in alcohol harms observed in others.

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Most studies focused on the temporal trend of mortality risk associated with temperature exposure. The relative role of heat, cold, and temperature variation (TV) on morbidity and its temporal trends are explored insufficiently. This study aims to investigate the temporal trends of emergency ambulance dispatch (EAD) risk and the attributable burden of heat, cold, and hourly temperature variation (HTV). We collected time-series data of daily EAD and ambient temperature in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2017. HTV was calculated as the standard deviation of the hourly temperatures between 2 consecutive days. Quasi-Poisson generalized additive models (GAM) with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) were applied to examine temporal trends of the HTV-, heat-, and cold-EAD association. The temporal variation of the attributable fraction (AF%) and attributable number (AN) for different temperature exposures was also calculated. The largest RR was observed in extreme cold [1.30 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.43)] and moderate cold [1.25 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.34)]. Significant increasing trends in HTV-related effects and burden were observed, especially for the extreme HTV effects (P for interaction < 0.05). Decreasing trends were observed in the heat-related effect and burden, though it showed no significance (P for interaction = 0.46). There was no clear change pattern of cold-related effects and burdens. Overall, the three temperature exposure caused 13.7% of EAD, of which 4.1%, 4.3%, and 5.3% were attributed to HTV, heat, and cold, respectively. All the temperature indexes in this study, especially the cold effect, are responsible for the increased risk of EAD. People have become more susceptible to HTV over the recent decade. However, there is no clear evidence to support the temporal change of the population's susceptibility to heat and cold. Thus, in addition to heat and cold, the emergency ambulance service department should pay more attention to HTV under climate change.

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BACKGROUND: China has more than 18% of the global population and over 770 million workers. However, the burden of disease attributable to occupational risks is unavailable in China. We aimed to estimate the burden of disease attributable to occupational exposures at provincial levels from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We estimated the summary exposure values (SEVs), deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to occupational risk factors in China from 1990 to 2017, based on Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017. There were 18 occupational risks, 22 related causes, and 35 risk-outcome pairs included in this study. Meanwhile, we compared age-standardized death rates attributable to occupational risk factors in provinces of China by socio-demographic index (SDI). RESULTS: The SEVs of most occupational risks increased from 1990 to 2017. There were 323,833 (95% UI 283,780 - 369,061) deaths and 14,060,210 (12,022,974 - 16,125,763) DALYs attributable to total occupational risks in China, which were 27.9 and 22.1% of corresponding global levels, respectively. For attributable deaths, major risks came from occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes (PGFs), and for the attributable DALYs, from occupational injuries. The attributable burden was higher in males than in females. Compared with high SDI provinces, low SDI provinces, especially Western China, had higher death rates attributable to total occupational risks, occupational PGFs, and occupational injuries. CONCLUSION: Occupational risks contribute to a huge disease burden in China. The attributable burden is higher in males, and in less developed provinces of Western China, reflecting differences in risk exposure, socioeconomic conditions, and type of jobs. Our study highlights the need for further research and focused policy interventions on the health of workers especially for less developed provinces in China to reduce occupational health losses effectively.

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Most epidemiological research on alcohol as a risk factor is based on the assumption that outcomes are linked to pattern and level of alcohol exposure, where different beverages are converted into grams of ethanol. This review examines this basic assumption, that alcohol has the same impact, independent of beverage type. We conducted a systematic search on comparative research of beverage-specific alcohol exposure and consequences. Research was divided by methodology (survey, case-control, cohort, time-series analyses, interventional research). Overall, many studies showed higher risks for spirits compared to beer or wine; however, most research was not controlled adequately for confounders such as patterns of drinking. While there is no conclusive evidence for spirits being associated with more harm, given the same pattern and level of alcohol exposure, some evidence supports for certain outcomes such as injuries and poisonings, a potential excess risk with spirits consumption due to rapid ethanol intake and intoxication. Accordingly, encouraging people to opt for beverages with lower alcohol content via taxation strategies has the potential to reduce alcohol-attributable harm. This does not necessarily involve switching beverage type, but also can achieved within the same beverage category, by shifting from higher to lower concentration beverages.

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Few researches have been investigated on the effects of ambient air pollutants from coal combustion on acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) hospitalizations. The whole time series was split into heating season and non-heating season. We used a quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to estimate the relative cumulative risk and calculate the air pollutant hospitalization burden of AECOPD for lag 0-7 days in heating season and non-heating season. There were higher PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and CO concentrations in heating seasons than non-heating season in Shijiazhuang; however, O3 was higher in non-heating season than heating season. The AECOPD-associated relative cumulative risks for PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2 for lag 0-7 days were significantly positively associated with hospitalization in heating and non-heating season; we found that the cumulative relative risk of NO2 was the greatest in every 1 unit of air pollutants during the heating season and the cumulative relative risk of SO2 was the greatest during the non-heating season. The results showed that 17.8%, 12.9%, 1.7%, 16.7%, and 10.5% of AECOPD hospitalizations could be attributable to PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO exposure in heating season, respectively. However, the results showed that 19.5%, 22.4%, 15%, 8.3%, and 10.4% of AECOPD hospitalizations could be attributable to PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and O3 exposure in non-heating season, respectively. The attributable burden of AECOPD hospitalization in heating season and non-heating season are different. PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO are the main factors of heating season, while PM10, PM2.5, SO2, and O3 are the main factors of non-heating season. In conclusions, the centralized heating can change the influence of attributable risk. When government departments formulate interventions to reduce the risk of acute hospitalization of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the influence of heating on disease burden should be considered.

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