RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Tacrolimus has a narrow therapeutic window, and bioavailability is known to vary considerably between renal transplant recipients. Most centers still rely on measurement of trough levels, but there are conflicting reports on the correlation between tacrolimus trough levels and systemic exposure, as measured by the area-under-the-concentration-over-time curve (AUC((0-12h))). METHODS: We developed and validated a two-compartmental population-based pharmacokinetic model with Bayesian estimation of tacrolimus systemic exposure. Subsequently, we used this model to apply prospectively AUC-guided dosing of tacrolimus in 15 consecutive renal transplant recipients. The main objective was to study intrapatient variability in the course of time. RESULTS: Bayesian forecasting with a two-point sampling strategy, a trough level, and a second sample obtained between two and four hours post-dose significantly improved the squared correlation with the AUC((0-12h)) (r(2)= 0.94). Compared with trough level monitoring only, this approach reduced the 95%-prediction interval by 50%. The Bayesian approach proved to be feasible in clinical practice, and provided accurate information about systemic tacrolimus exposure in individual patients. In the AUC-guided dosing cohort the apparent clearance of tacrolimus decreased gradually over time, which was not reflected in corresponding trough levels. CONCLUSION: This simple, flexible method provides the opportunity to tailor immunosuppression, and should help minimize tacrolimus-related toxicity, such as nephrotoxicity and post-transplant diabetes mellitus.