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OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and validate predictive models that assess the risk of leprosy development among contacts, contributing to an enhanced understanding of disease occurrence in this population. METHODS: A cohort of 600 contacts of people with leprosy treated at the National Reference Center for Leprosy and Health Dermatology at the Federal University of Uberlândia (CREDESH/HC-UFU) was followed up between 2002 and 2022. The database was divided into two parts: two-third to construct the disease risk score and one-third to validate this score. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to construct the disease score. RESULTS: Of the four models constructed, model 3, which included the variables anti-phenolic glycolipid I immunoglobulin M positive, absence of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine scar and age ≥60 years, was considered the best for identifying a higher risk of illness, with a specificity of 89.2%, a positive predictive value of 60% and an accuracy of 78%. CONCLUSIONS: Risk prediction models can contribute to the management of leprosy contacts and the systematisation of contact surveillance protocols.

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BACKGROUND: Chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is responsible for the highest morbidity and worst prognosis in Chagas disease patients. However, predicting factors that correlate with disease progression, morbidity, and mortality is challenging. It is necessary to have simple, quantitative, and economical risk biomarkers that add value to conventional methods and assist in the diagnosis and prognosis of patients with CCC or in evolution. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated molecules related to cardiac remodeling and fibrosis, such as MMP-2, MMP-9, TIMP-2, TIMP-1, PICP, CTXI, and Gal-3, and correlated these biomarkers with echocardiographic variables (LVDD, LVEF, and E/e' ratio). METHODS: Blood samples from Chagasic patients without apparent cardiopathy (WAC), CCC patients, and healthy individuals were used to perform plasma molecule dosages using Luminex or ELISA. RESULTS: MMP-2 and TIMP-2 presented higher levels in CCC; in these patients, the inhibitory role of TIMP-2 over MMP-2 was reinforced. The ratio of MMP-2/TIMP-2 in WAC patients showed a bias in favor of the gelatinase pathway. MMP-9 and TIMP-1 showed higher levels in Chagas patients compared to healthy subjects. PICP and CTXI are not associated with cardiac deterioration in Chagas disease. Increased levels of Gal-3 are associated with worse cardiac function in CCC. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis identified Gal-3 and TIMP-2 as putative biomarkers to discriminate WAC from cardiac patients. CONCLUSIONS: Among the molecules evaluated, Gal-3 and TIMP-2 have the potential to be used as biomarkers of cardiac remodeling and progressive myocardial fibrosis in Chagas disease.

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BACKGROUND: In Brazil, new leprosy cases with grade-2 disability (G2D) have been increasing. Physical disability has been associated with experienced stigmatization, psychological distress, and social restriction. OBJECTIVES: To identify factors associated with leprosy disability in an endemic area of Brazil focusing on occupational and other sociodemographic factors. METHODS: Between July and December 2015, adult patients with multibacillary leprosy who attended a clinic in Belo Horizonte, Brazil were enrolled. Social, clinical, and demographic factors were collected from an administered questionnaire and medical charts. Occupations were categorized as manual vs non-manual. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression were performed to study associated factors with disability (Grade 1 disability (G1D) and G2D combined). FINDINGS: Seventy-three patients were enrolled with 48 (65.8%) presenting with either G1D or G2D at the time of enrollment. Twenty-nine (39.7%) had G2D. About half of the patients (n = 36, 49%) reported a manual labor occupation and reactions were common (n = 53, 73%). On univariate analyses, older age (p = 0.048) and low education (p = 0.007) were associated with disability. On multivariable analyses, only low education (primary or less) was associated with disability (OR = 6.34, 95% CI 1.37, 29.26). Greater distance from clinic, income, smoking, marital status, and occupation were not associated. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Low education was associated with leprosy disability, consistent with prior studies, and therefore should be a focus for disability reduction programs. While the sample size of this study may have limited detection of associations between disability and social determinants tested, half of the patients reported a manual job, highlighting the need for more extensive studies on associations between occupation, disability, and related injuries.

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The aim of this systematic review was to investigate the studies that evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of serologic tests using recombinant protein antigens from Mycobacterium leprae for leprosy diagnosis. We included 13 studies that were available in PubMed, Brazilian Virtual Library of Health, Web of Science, ScienceDirect and Scopus. From these studies, we found that the recombinant serine-rich 45-kDa protein of M. leprae (ML0411) demonstrated high performance for multibacillary (MB) also to paucibacillary (PB) patients, although this study was tested only for Indian population. Despite that, studies using the ND-O-LID antigen have been able to more accurately identify new cases of leprosy among people living in endemic or non-endemic areas and household contacts in Brazil, Colombia, and the Philippines, especially when combined with other biomarkers. Finally, low sensitivity values for PB patients' antibodies response remain challenging for tests intended to diagnose clinical forms that comprise this classification in leprosy.

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Leprosy reactions are immune-mediated complications occurring in up to 50% of patients. The immune consequences of helminth infections and micronutrient deficiencies suggest a potential role in type 1 reactions (T1R) or type 2 reactions (T2R). We conducted a case-control study in Minas Gerais, Brazil, to evaluate whether comorbidities and other factors are associated with reactions in patients with multibacillary leprosy. Stool and serum were tested for helminth infections. Deficiencies of vitamin A, D, and iron were measured using serum retinol, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and ferritin, respectively. Logistic regression models identified associations between reactions and helminth infections, micronutrient deficiencies, and other variables. Seventy-three patients were enrolled, 24 (33%) with T1R, 21 (29%) with T2R, 8 (15%) with mixed T1R/T2R, and 20 (27%) without reactions. Evidence of helminth infections were found in 11 participants (15%) and included IgG4 reactivity against Schistosoma mansoni, Strongyloides, and Ascaris antigens. Thirty-eight (52%) had vitamin D deficiency, eight (11%) had vitamin A insufficiency, 21 (29%) had anemia, and one (1.4%) had iron deficiency. Multivariable logistic regression showed no statistically significant associations between helminth coinfections and total reactions (adjusted odds ratios [aOR]: 1.36, 95% CI: 0.22, 8.33), T1R (aOR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.17, 4.17), or T2R (aOR: 2.41, 95% CI: 0.29, 20.0). Vitamin D deficiency and vitamin A insufficiency were also not statistically associated with reactions. However, vitamin deficiencies and helminth infections were prevalent in these patients, suggesting a potential role for additional treatment interventions. Studying reactions prospectively may further clarify the role of comorbidities in the clinical presentation of leprosy.

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