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INTRODUCTION: Numerous studies worldwide have investigated the impact of tobacco tax increase on household welfare, focusing on concerns regarding potential tobacco taxation regressivity and its effects on the poorest, whereas their scope was limited to the working population. AIMS AND METHODS: To explore the effects of tax changes on household budgets, accounting for the retired population as well, we employed the modified Extended Cost-Benefit Analysis (ECBA) framework, assuming a 43.6% specific tax increase that fits the EU Tobacco Tax Directive recommendation of minimum EUR 90 excise taxes per 1,000 cigarettes. Our analysis encompassed changes in: 1) tobacco expenditure (accounting for price elasticities by income groups: low-, middle-, and high-income), 2) medical costs linked to smoking-related diseases (utilizing relative risk of morbidity/mortality and smoking-attributable fractions), 3) years of working life (considering the years of working life lost among the working population), and 4) years of pension receipt (accounting for the years of retirement life lost due the premature death). RESULTS: Under an assumed specific excise increase leading to a 22.4% retail tobacco price rise, the net gains in disposable household budgets would be 0.01% for high-income, 1.3% for middle-income, and 2.9% for low-income households. CONCLUSIONS: A tax increase would yield a progressive effect on income distribution, benefiting the most economically disadvantaged population thereby contributing to a more equitable income distribution. IMPLICATIONS: To effectively reduce tobacco consumption, subsequent smoking-related medical costs, and associated productivity and pension losses, it is recommended that Serbia implement a minimum 43.6% increase in the specific tobacco excise tax.
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In this research, we aimed to provide a comparative examination of at-risk gambling and four types of gambling activities from the standpoint of socioeconomic, demographic and psychological factors. Using data collected from 7,385 adults aged 18-64 from Serbia, we investigated how specific variables contribute to the likelihood of participation in lottery playing, sports betting, casino games, and slot games across the three time frames (lifetime, last year, and last month), and at-risk gambling. Logistic regressions revealed that male sex, ages 18 to 34, drug use, harmful alcohol use, and elevated levels of distress were significant predictors of participation in any point of life in sports betting, casino games, and slot games, and at-risk gambling. Secondary education, residing in an urban area, and harmful alcohol use predicted - across three time frames - the engagement in lottery playing, sports betting, and slot games playing, respectively. Smoking, and specifically heavy smoking, was shown to be predictive of lifetime participation in all types of gambling, while having single marital status and being unemployed emerged as the factors increasing the odds for the last-month slot games playing. Notably, the 18 to 24 age cohort turned out to be the most vulnerable part of the population, as they displayed the largest odds for at-risk gambling, and both lifetime and last-year involvement in sports betting, casino games, and slot games playing. This highlights the necessity of targeted public health interventions for the young adult population and people who experiment or already experience problems related to substance use.
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Juego de Azar , Humanos , Juego de Azar/psicología , Juego de Azar/epidemiología , Adulto , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto Joven , Serbia , Adolescente , Factores Socioeconómicos , Factores de Riesgo , Conducta Adictiva/psicologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The empirical evidence shows that tobacco consumption is strongly associated with its affordability. The nominal growth in tobacco prices imposed by taxation should exceed or at least keep pace with nominal income growth, ensuring that tobacco products become less affordable over time. No analysis covering affordability issues in the Southeastern European (SEE) region has been conducted prior to this research. OBJECTIVES: The study aims to examine trends in cigarette affordability in ten selected SEE countries over the period 2008-2019 and the impact of affordability on the consumption of cigarettes. On the policy side, it aims to support conducting of more effective evidence-based policy of tobacco taxation. METHODS: The relative income price of cigarettes and the tobacco affordability index are used as affordability measures. The panel regression was run to estimate the impact of affordability measures and other covariates on cigarette consumption. RESULTS: The affordability of cigarettes in the selected SEE countries has decreased on average but showed different patterns over the observed period. A decline in affordability has been more dynamic in Western Balkan (non-EU members) countries and low-and-middle-income countries within the SEE region. Econometric estimation confirms affordability as the main determinant of tobacco consumption, indicating that a decline in affordability considerably reduces tobacco consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the evidence, affordability is still widely ignored by SEE policymakers when designing national tobacco taxation policies. Policymakers should be aware of the risk that future increases in cigarette prices could lag behind real income growth, making tax policy less effective at reducing consumption. Reducing affordability should be the paramount consideration in designing effective tobacco taxation policies.
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BACKGROUND: Although smoking prevalence and intensity in Serbia have decreased in recent years, expenditures on tobacco products still represent a significant portion of household budgets. As households have limited resources at their disposal, consuming tobacco means that they spend less on other items such as food, clothing, education and healthcare. This is particularly true for low-income households, for whom the pressure on the household budget is even higher. OBJECTIVES: In this research we estimate the effect of tobacco consumption on other consumption items in Serbia, which is the first estimation of this type for the countries in Eastern Europe. METHODS: We use microdata from the Household Budget Survey and estimation approach that includes the combination of seemingly unrelated regression and instrumental variables. Besides estimating the overall effect we analyse the differences in effects between low-income, medium-income and high-income households. RESULTS: Expenditures on tobacco reduce consumption on food, clothing and education and increase the budget shares spent on complementary consumption items such as alcohol, hotels, bars and restaurants. In most cases, the effects are more pronounced for low-income households than for other groups. These results suggest that aside from the negative effects of tobacco consumption on health, it also distorts household consumption structure, while affecting intrahousehold allocation and future health and development of other household members. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this research underline the negative effect that tobacco expenditures have on consumption of other products. The only way for households to decrease expenditures on tobacco is to stop smoking, as the consumption of those who continue smoking changes less than cigarettes prices. To ensure that households stop smoking and instead direct their expenditures towards more productive purposes, the Serbian government should adopt new policies and strengthen enforcement of existing tobacco control measures.
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INTRODUCTION: Recent research shows that in many countries, smokers who increased smoking during the COVID-19 pandemic outnumbered those who decreased it, despite higher exposure to COVID-19 severity and death. In this study, we compared changes in smoking behavior in the initial and later stages of the pandemic and factors associated with lower smoking intensity. METHODS: We conducted two survey rounds on representative samples, the first in the initial stage of the pandemic (11-19 May 2020) and the second in the latter stage (4-11 June 2021), in Serbia. Multinomial logistic regression was run to estimate associations between smokers' characteristics and lower smoking intensity. In contrast to most studies that assess psychological factors affecting smoking in the pandemic, we focused on factual determinants of the change in smoking intensity. RESULTS: The share of smokers who claimed to smoke more increased significantly, from 22.7% in May 2020 to 35.2% in June 2021. The share of smokers who reported a decrease in smoking only slightly increased, from 11.7% to 13.3%. The persistence of the pandemic considerably increased intentions to cease smoking, from 26.3% to 40%. Higher education (adjusted odds ratio, AOR=2.11; 95% CI: 1.08-4.13), income fall (AOR=2.14; 95% CI: 1.11-4.11), occasional smoking (AOR=4.24; 95% CI: 2.26-7.96) and recovery from COVID-19 (AOR=2.38; 95% CI: 1.23-4.60) increased the odds to reduce smoking during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Most smokers are unaware that consuming tobacco products increases exposure to health risks related to COVID-19, but those who get coronavirus infected tend to reduce smoking. This research highlights that tobacco control policy needs to be more proactive in creating public campaigns which demonstrate the severity of COVID-19 impact on smokers' health. Such campaigns should mainly target those groups of smokers who are less able to curb their smoking intensity.
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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Numerous studies have indicated that tobacco taxation is one of the most important policies to reduce tobacco consumption. However, its effectiveness crucially depends on consumer responses to price increases, that is, tobacco price elasticities. This paper analyses tobacco price elasticity in six Western Balkan countries. DATA AND METHODS: We estimate own-price and cross-price elasticities of manufactured cigarettes (MCs) and roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco by using the methodological framework of the two-part model, regional variation in prices and 2019 Survey on Tobacco Consumption in Southeastern European countries (STC-SEE). STC-SEE provides a uniquely comparable nationally representative data on smoking behaviour for adult (18-85 years old) population for each country. RESULTS: Results suggest that higher prices of MCs are associated with lower prevalence of MC use, while higher prices of RYO are associated with lower intensity of RYO use. Furthermore, regions with higher MC prices have a higher likelihood of using RYO over MC, suggesting that RYO is used as a cheaper alternative to MC. Lastly, lower smoking prevalence and intensity are associated with more smoking restrictions and support for tobacco price increases. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that, aiming to decrease smoking prevalence and intensity, governments should increase excises on all tobacco products. Since RYO is a cheaper alternative to MC, the increase of excises on RYO should be higher, so that after excise increase, the prices of the two products are approximately the same. To further reduce tobacco consumption, governments should combine increasing taxes on tobacco products with non-price measures, such as stricter smoking restrictions and smoke-free regulations.
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Nicotiana , Productos de Tabaco , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Peninsula Balcánica , Comercio , Elasticidad , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Impuestos , Uso de Tabaco , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Tobacco tax evasion undermines the goal of tobacco taxes as a tobacco control measure to make tobacco products less affordable, increases the health risks for those who smoke and decreases the government revenue. This paper analyses the tobacco tax evasion in six Western Balkan (WB) countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. The aim of this research is to estimate the size of the illicit market and identify the main determinants of tax evasion activities in the Southeastern European region. DATA AND METHODS: Data from 2019 Survey on Tobacco Consumption in Southeastern Europe (STC-SEE) are used. STC-SEE provides uniquely comparable nationally representative data on smoking behaviour for adult (18-85 years old) population for each country. Tax evasion is defined on the basis of available information on tax stamps, health warnings, price and the place of purchase, in accordance with the previous research on tax evasion. In order to estimate the determinants of illicit purchases we use binary choice model of tax evasion. RESULTS: The study finds that 20.4% of all current smokers in WB countries evade taxes on tobacco products, with evasion being much more frequent for hand-rolled (HR) tobacco (86.7%) than for the manufactured cigarettes (MC) (8.6%). While HR is predominantly illicit in all six countries, MC evasion varies significantly, with evasion being significantly higher in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results further suggest that tax evasion is higher in the statistical regions where institutional capacities to tackle illicit trade are lower, in municipalities bordering countries with high MC evasion, as well as among smokers with low income, women and elderly. We also provide evidence that higher tobacco taxes and prices do not increase illicit consumption. CONCLUSION: The findings from the research suggest that in order to decrease tax evasion, governments should put additional effort to strengthen institutional capacities to tackle illicit tobacco markets. Furthermore, improving regional coordination in development and implementation of tobacco control policies, including the prevention of illicit market, is essential in lowering evasion in all WB countries. Finally, WB countries should regulate and enforce excise tax stamp requirements on the HR tobacco market to a much higher degree.
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Industria del Tabaco , Productos de Tabaco , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Peninsula Balcánica , Comercio , Crimen , Femenino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Impuestos , Nicotiana , Uso de Tabaco , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
While previous research has indicated that increasing tobacco excises is a crucial instrument for lowering tobacco demand, this policy has been criticized for its alleged regressive impact on the poor. However, this critique does not take into account the behavioral response, i.e., decrease in consumption that occurs after excises and prices increase. In this paper, we examine the effect of cigarettes' price increase on tobacco consumption, household expenditures, and tax burdens in three income groups and provide empirical arguments on the regressivity/progressivity effects of tobacco tax increase. Estimated elasticities indicate that all groups decrease their cigarettes demand with increasing prices, with demand decrease stronger for low- than for middle- and high-income households. Results further suggest that increasing tobacco excises (1) decreases tobacco expenditure of low-income households, which increases their productive consumption, such as on food, clothes, etc., and (2) redistributes the tobacco tax burden from low- to high-income households. Therefore, excise increase policies do not have an adverse effect on the position of the low-income households; on the contrary, they lower their cigarettes expenditure and their tax burden, while lower cigarettes consumption has an additional, positive effect on their health, which attenuates future inequalities.
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Nicotiana , Productos de Tabaco , Comercio , Serbia , ImpuestosRESUMEN
In this paper, we use Deaton's demand model and Household Budget Survey data from 2006 to 2017 to provide a first robust and reliable estimate of cigarettes price elasticity for Serbia. The case of Serbia is particularly interesting and important as it provides evidence for a country in which tobacco market is characterised by the high tobacco consumption, low prices and large perceived impact of multinational tobacco companies on public revenues, export and employment, given their considerable cigarette production in Serbia. The price elasticity of cigarettes is estimated at -0.639, in line with the previous estimates for the low-income and middle-income countries. Estimated negative cigarettes price elasticity for Serbia suggests that tobacco tax policy could be used effectively to reduce cigarette consumption in Serbia, which could lower the harmful health effects of cigarettes. Furthermore, a calculation based on the estimated elasticity suggests that increasing tobacco taxes could also have positive fiscal effects, as the expected revenue from the taxes would increase.