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BACKGROUND: The use of tools that allow estimation of the probability of progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) to advanced stages has not yet achieved significant practical importance in clinical setting. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning-based model for predicting the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) and disease progression for patients with stage 3-5 CKD. METHODS: This was a retrospective, closed cohort, observational study. Patients with CKD affiliated with a private insurer with five-year follow-up data were selected. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were included, and the models were developed based on machine learning methods. The outcomes were CKD progression, a significant decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and the need for RRT. RESULTS: Three prediction models were developed-Model 1 (risk at 4.5 years, n = 1446) with a F1 of 0.82, 0.53, and 0.55 for RRT, stage progression, and reduction in the eGFR, respectively,- Model 2 (time- to-event, n = 2143) with a C-index of 0.89, 0.67, and 0.67 for RRT, stage progression, reduction in the eGFR, respectively, and Model 3 (reduced Model 2) with C-index = 0.68, 0.68 and 0.88, for RRT, stage progression, reduction in the eGFR, respectively. CONCLUSION: The time-to-event model performed well in predicting the three outcomes of CKD progression at five years. This model can be useful for predicting the onset and time of occurrence of the outcomes of interest in the population with established CKD.

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Introduction: The response to vaccination against the virus that causes severe acute respiratory infection syndrome coronavirus 2 is lower in renal transplant recipients than in the general population. The data obtained from Latin America showed reduced immunogenicity under inactivated virus vaccination schedules and messenger ribonucleic acid platforms. Methods: A retrospective cohort study including renal transplant recipients from Colombia with a two-dose vaccination schedule against severe acute respiratory infection syndrome coronavirus 2 with Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, Jansen, and Sinovac vaccines between March 1, 2021 and December 1, 2021, was carried out with a follow-up period to evaluate outcomes until May 2022. The outcomes correspond to the titers of immunoglobulin G antibodies against the receptor binding domain of the severe acute respiratory infection syndrome coronavirus 2 spike and a composite outcome of mortality, general, and intensive care unit hospitalization. Results: In total, 215 renal transplant recipients with two doses of vaccination for severe acute respiratory infection syndrome coronavirus 2 during the predominance of the Omicron variant in Colombia were included, with the measurement of immunoglobulin G antibody titers against the receptor binding domain of the severe acute respiratory infection syndrome coronavirus 2 spike at 8 weeks of vaccination. The mean age was 52.1 years, and the standard deviation was ± 14.2; severe acute respiratory infection syndrome coronavirus 2 infection occurred in 20% of the population, of which 23.26% required hospitalization, 13.95% were under intensive care unit management, and four cases of mortality (9.3%) were reported. Of the total population, 52.5% had antibody titers higher than 0.8 IU/mL (median 0.77 IU/mL, interquartile range 0.4-131). Patients with severe acute respiratory infection syndrome coronavirus 2 infection had a median antibody titer of 0.4 IU/mL (interquartile range 0.4-3.45), and those without infection had a median antibody titer of 1.8 IU/mL (interquartile range 0.4-202) (p = 0.015). Conclusion: Anti-severe acute respiratory infection syndrome coronavirus 2 antibody titers with a cutoff point less than 0.8 IU/mL are associated with increased risk of severe acute respiratory infection syndrome coronavirus 2 infection.

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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between Colombia's third wave when the Mu variant was predominant epidemiologically (until 75%) in Colombia and COVID-19 all-cause in-hospital mortality. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort, we included hospitalized patients ≥18 years with SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 2020 to September 2021 in ten hospitals from three cities in Colombia. Description analysis, survival, and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between the third epidemic wave and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 25,371 patients were included. The age-stratified time-to-mortality curves showed differences according to epidemic waves in patients ≥75 years (log-rank test p = 0.012). In the multivariate Cox analysis, the third wave was not associated with increased mortality relative to the first wave (aHR 0.95; 95%CI 0.84-1.08), but there was an interaction between age ≥75 years and the third wave finding a lower HR for mortality (aHR 0.56, 95%CI 0.36-0.86). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find an increase in in-hospital mortality during the third epidemic wave in which the Mu variant was predominant in Colombia. The reduced hazard in mortality in patients ≥75 years hospitalized in the third wave could be explained by the high coverage of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in this population and patients with underlying conditions.

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BACKGROUND: The impact of immunosuppression in solid organ transplant recipients with SARS-CoV-2 infection is unknown. The knowledge about the behavior of different immunosuppression schemes in clinical outcomes is scarce. This study aimed to determine the risk of death in kidney transplant recipients with COVID-19 under two different schemes of immunosuppression. METHODS: We describe our experience in kidney transplant recipients with SARS-CoV-2 infection in seven transplant centers during the first year of the pandemic before starting the vaccination programs in the city of Bogotá. Demographic characteristics, clinical presentation, immunosuppression schemes at presentation, and global treatment strategies were compared between recovered and dead patients; survival analysis was carried out between calcineurin inhibitors based regimen and free calcineurin inhibitors regimen. RESULTS: Among 165 confirmed cases, 28 died (17%); the risk factors for mortality identified in univariate analysis were age older than 60 years (p=.003) diabetes (p=.001), immunosuppression based on calcineurin inhibitors (CNI) (p=.025) and patients receiving steroids (p=.041). In multivariable analysis, hypoxemia (p=.000) and calcineurin inhibitors regimen (p=.002) were predictors of death. Survival analysis showed increased mortality risk in patients receiving CNI based immunosuppression regimen vs. CNI free regimens mortality rates were, respectively, 21.7% and 8.5% (p=.036). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the calcineurin inhibitors probably do not provide greater protection compared to calcineurin inhibitor free schemes being necessary to carry out analyzes that allow us to evaluate the outcomes with different immunosuppression schemes in solid organ transplant recipients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

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INTRODUCTION: Since the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2, there have been efforts to develop vaccines to control the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: The present study assessed the efficacy and safety of the BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1/AZD1222 and Gam-COVID-Vac rAd26-S/rAd5-S vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Google Scholar, Cochrane, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform on March 15, 2021. The search terms used were: "vaccine" OR "vaccination" AND "covid19" OR "coronavirus" OR "sarscov2" AND "bnt162b2" OR "chadox1-S" OR "azd1222" OR "sputnik" OR "Gam-COVID-Vac" OR "mrna" OR "mRNA-1273" . We measured the risk of bias of the studies and the quality of the evidence using GRADE profiles. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of the results of clinical trials is presented. RESULTS: Of the 74 identified studies, 4 were finally included in this review. The efficacies of the BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1/AZD1222 and Gam-COVID-VacrAd26-S/rAd5-S vaccines against symptomatic COVID-19 were 95,0% (CI95% 90,3-97,6), 94,1% (CI95% 89,3-96,8), 66,7% (CI95% 57,4-74,0), and 91,1% (CI95% 83,8-95,1), respectively. There was moderate certainty of the evidence due to serious indirectness, when we measured the risk of bias of the studies and the quality of the evidence using GRADE profile. The safety profiles were acceptable, and data on serious adverse events (summary RR=0,93; CI95% 0,77-1,12; p=0,16) and deaths from all causes (summary RR=0,70; CI95% 0,33-1,50; p=0,90) showed no significant differences. CONCLUSION: The results of this review support the level of evidence for the efficacy and safety of the COVID-19 vaccines analysed.

Introducción. Desde que surgió el virus SARS-CoV-2, se han realizado esfuerzos para desarrollar vacunas para controlar la pandemia por COVID-19. Objetivo. Evaluar los datos de la eficacia y seguridad de las vacunas BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1/AZD1222 y Gam-COVID-Vac rAd26-S/rAd5-S contra el SARS-CoV-2. Materiales y métodos. Se realizaron búsquedas en PubMed/MEDLINE, Google Scholar, Cochrane y la Plataforma de Registro Internacional de Ensayos Clínicos de la OMS el 15 de marzo de 2021. Los términos usados fueron: "vaccine" OR "vaccination" AND "covid19" OR "coronavirus" OR "sarscov2" AND "bnt162b2" OR "chadox1-S" OR "azd1222" OR "sputnik" OR "Gam-COVID-Vac" OR "mrna" OR "mRNA-1273". Se midió el riesgo de sesgo de los estudios y la calidad de la información por medio de los perfiles GRADE. Se presenta un análisis cualitativo y cuantitativo de los resultados de los estudios clínicos. Resultados. Se identificaron 74 estudios y se incluyeron 4 en la revisión. La eficacia de las vacunas BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1/AZD1222 y Gam-COVID-VacrAd26-S/rAd5-S contra la COVID-19 sintomática fue del 95,0 % (IC95% 90,3-97,6), 94,1 % (IC95% 89,3-96,8), 66,7 % (IC95% 57,4-74,0) y 91,1 % (IC95% 83,8-95,1), respectivamente, y hubo una certeza moderada de la información debido a la falta de evidencia directa. Los perfiles de seguridad fueron aceptables, y los eventos adversos graves (RR resumido=0,93; IC95% 0,77-1,12; p=0,16) y muerte por todas las causas (RR resumido=0,70; IC95% 0,33-1,50; p=0,90) no mostraron diferencias significativas. Conclusión. Los resultados de esta revisión respaldan el nivel de evidencia de la eficacia y seguridad de las vacunas COVID-19 que fueron analizadas.

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Introduction: Since the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2, there have been efforts to develop vaccines to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: The present study assessed the efficacy and safety of the BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1/AZD1222 and Gam-COVID-Vac rAd26-S/rAd5-S vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2. Materials and methods: We searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Google Scholar, Cochrane, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform on March 15, 2021. The search terms used were: "vaccine" OR "vaccination" AND "covid19" OR "coronavirus" OR "sarscov2" AND "bnt162b2" OR "chadox1-S" OR "azd1222" OR "sputnik" OR "Gam-COVID-Vac" OR "mrna" OR "mRNA-1273" . We measured the risk of bias of the studies and the quality of the evidence using GRADE profiles. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of the results of clinical trials is presented. Results: Of the 74 identified studies, 4 were finally included in this review. The efficacies of the BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1/AZD1222 and Gam-COVID-VacrAd26-S/rAd5-S vaccines against symptomatic COVID-19 were 95,0% (CI95% 90,3-97,6), 94,1% (CI95% 89,3-96,8), 66,7% (CI95% 57,4-74,0), and 91,1% (CI95% 83,8-95,1), respectively. There was moderate certainty of the evidence due to serious indirectness, when we measured the risk of bias of the studies and the quality of the evidence using GRADE profile. The safety profiles were acceptable, and data on serious adverse events (summary RR=0,93; CI95% 0,77-1,12; p=0,16) and deaths from all causes (summary RR=0,70; CI95% 0,33-1,50; p=0°90) showed no significant differences. Conclusion: The results of this review support the level of evidence for the efficacy and safety of the COVID-19 vaccines analysed.

Introducción. Desde que surgió el virus SARS-CoV-2, se han realizado esfuerzos para desarrollar vacunas para controlar la pandemia por COVID-19. Objetivo. Evaluar los datos de la eficacia y seguridad de las vacunas BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1/AZD1222 y Gam-COVID-Vac rAd26-S/rAd5-S contra el SARS-CoV-2. Materiales y métodos. Se realizaron búsquedas en PubMed/MEDLINE, Google Scholar, Cochrane y la Plataforma de Registro Internacional de Ensayos Clínicos de la OMS el 15 de marzo de 2021. Los términos usados fueron: "vaccine" OR "vaccination" AND "covid19" OR "coronavirus" OR "sarscov2" AND "bnt162b2" OR "chadox1-S" OR "azd1222" OR "sputnik" OR "Gam-COVID-Vac" OR "mrna" OR "mRNA-1273'.' Se midió el riesgo de sesgo de los estudios y la calidad de la información por medio de los perfiles GRADE. Se presenta un análisis cualitativo y cuantitativo de los resultados de los estudios clínicos. Resultados. Se identificaron 74 estudios y se incluyeron 4 en la revisión. La eficacia de las vacunas BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1/AZD1222 y Gam-COVID-VacrAd26-S/rAd5-S contra la COVID-19 sintomática fue del 95,0 % (IC95% 90,3-97,6), 94,1 % (IC95% 89,3-96,8), 66,7 % (IC95% 57,4-74,0) y 91,1 % (IC95% 83,8-95,1), respectivamente, y hubo una certeza moderada de la información debido a la falta de evidencia directa. Los perfiles de seguridad fueron aceptables, y los eventos adversos graves (RR resumido=0,93; IC95% 0,77-1,12; p=0,16) y muerte por todas las causas (RR resumido=0,70; IC95% 0,33-1,50; p=0,90) no mostraron diferencias significativas. Conclusión. Los resultados de esta revisión respaldan el nivel de evidencia de la eficacia y seguridad de las vacunas COVID-19 que fueron analizadas.

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Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has become one of the greatest public health challenges worldwide since, after being first identified in India in December 2020, it has spread rapidly, affecting mainly countries with low vaccination rates and those that have relaxed the public health and social measures implemented to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The Delta variant has a higher replication capacity and is associated with viral loads up to 1 260 times higher than those of infections caused by the original strain, which may be associated with an increased likelihood of hospitalization, ICU admission, need for oxygen therapy, pneumonia, or even death. Fully vaccinated individuals have almost similar protection against both Delta and Alpha variants. Given the impact of Delta in countries where it is the dominant variant, it is necessary for all countries to develop systematic action plans focused on implementing strict public health and social measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and on increasing vaccination coverage. Bearing this in mind, the objective of this reflection paper is to describe the main characteristics of the Delta variant, its impact on the dynamics of the pandemic in some of the countries where it has been detected, the effectiveness of vaccines against this variant, and its implications for public health in Colombia.

Resumen La variante delta del SARS-CoV-2 se ha convertido en uno de los mayores desafíos en salud pública a nivel mundial, ya que, luego de su identificación en la India en diciembre de 2020, se ha extendido de manera rápida, afectando principalmente a los países con bajas tasas de vacunación, y aquellos que han flexibilizado las medidas de salud pública establecidas para controlar la pandemia por COVID-19. La variante delta tiene una mayor capacidad de replicación y se asocia con cargas virales hasta 1 260 veces más altas en comparación con las de infecciones causadas por la cepa original, lo cual puede estar asociado a mayores probabilidades de hospitalización, ingreso a UCI, necesidad de oxigenoterapia, neumonía, o incluso muerte. Las personas con vacunación completa tienen una protección casi similar contra las variantes delta y alfa. Dado el impacto de delta en los países afectados en los que es la variante dominante, es necesario que todos los países desarrollen planes de acción sistemáticos enfocados en implementar estrictas medidas de salud pública y sociales en el contexto de la pandemia por COVID-19, y aumentar la cobertura de vacunación. Teniendo en cuenta lo anterior, el objetivo de esta reflexión es describir las principales características de la variante delta, su impacto en la dinámica de la pandemia en algunos de los países en que ha sido detectada, la efectividad de las vacunas contra esta variante, y sus implicaciones para la salud pública en Colombia.

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Abstract In recent months, rare cases of thrombosis at unusual sites associated with thrombocytopenia, occurring within a typical risk window (i.e., 4-28 days) after receiving SARS CoV2 vaccines, have been reported. Healthcare professionals should be prepared to detect these cases on time. The Expert Panel of the Knowledge Management and Transfer Network conducted a free search of the related literature. With the available information and the clinical expertise of the working group, we formulated, reviewed, and endorsed recommendations for the timely suspicion, diagnosis (case definitions, the use of initial laboratory and imaging tests, specific tests), and management of these thrombotic conditions. This document is considered a living document that will be updated as new evidence emerges, and recommendations may change over time.

Resumen En meses recientes se han reportado casos raros de trombocitopenia y trombosis en sitios inusuales, que ocurren dentro de una ventana de riesgo típica ( por ejemplo de 4 a 28 días) luego de recibir vacunas de SARS CoV 2. Los profesionales de la salud deben estar preparados para detectar estos casos a tiempo. Un panel de expertos y una red de transferencia de conocimiento realizó una búsqueda libre de literatura seleccionada. Con la información disponible y la experticia clínica del grupo de trabajo revisamos y dimos recomendaciones para la sospecha temprana, el diagnostico (definición de caso, el uso de pruebas de laboratorio especificas y de imágenes diagnósticas) para le manejo de estas condiciones tromboticas. Este documento es considerado un documento vivo que debe ser actualizado a medida que surja nueva evidencia y las recomendaciones vayan cambiando con el tiempo

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Abstract Introduction: The numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pediatric population are low so far. There is limited information about the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 in a pediatric patient with chronic kidney disease. Objective: To formulate informed recommendations to the prevention, diagnosis, and management of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pediatric patients with kidney disease or acute kidney injury associated with COVID-19 in Colombia. Methodology: A rapid systematic review was performed in Embase and Pubmed databases and scientific societies, to answer questions prioritized by clinical experts in pediatric nephrology. The quality of the evidence was evaluated with validated tools according to the type of study. The preliminary recommendations were consulted by an expert group. The agreement was defined when approval was obtained from at least 70% of the experts consulted. Results: A response was obtained from ' 9 experts in pediatric nephrology in Colombia, who declared the conflict of interest before the consultation. The range of agreement for the recommendations ranged from 78.9% to '00%. The recommendations did not require a second consultation. Conclusion: The evidence-based recommendations for the management of a patient with kidney disease and COVID-19 in the Colombian context are presented.

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Abstract Introduction: Acute kidney injury is a frequent complication in patients with COVID-19 and its occurrence is a potential indicator of multi-organ dysfunction and disease severity. Objective: Develop, through an expert consensus, evidence-based recommendations for the prevention, diagnosis, and management of acute kidney injury in patients with SARS CoV2 / COVID-19 infection. Materials and methods: Based on a rapid systematic review in Embase and Pubmed databases and documents from scientific societies, we made preliminary recommendations and consulted with an expert group through an online tool. Then we defined agreement after at least 70 % consensus approval. Quality evidence was evaluated according to the type of document included. The strength of the recommendations was graded as strong or weak. Results: Fifty clinical experts declared their conflict of interest; the consultation took place between May 2 and 29, 2020. The range of agreement ranged from 75.5 % to 100 %. Recommendations for prevention, diagnosis and management of acute kidney injury in patients with SARS CoV2 infection are presented. Conclusions: Although the good quality information available regarding acute kidney injury in patients with COVID-19 is scarce, the recommendations of clinical experts will guide clinical decision-making and strategies around patients with this complication, guaranteeing care focused on the people, with high quality standards, and the generation of safety, health and wellness policies for multidisciplinary care teams.

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El citomegalovirus es una de las principales causas de infección y enfermedad en receptores de trasplante renal, con un notorio impacto en términos de morbilidad, mortalidad y costos. Sin embargo, no existe en Colombia una práctica clínica estandarizada entre los centros de trasplante, por lo cual, es de suma importancia disponer de guías con el fin de orientar la estratificación, el diagnóstico de laboratorio, el tratamiento y la prevención de la infección y enfermedad por citomegalovirus en pacientes adultos con trasplante renal. A través de la metodología ADAPTE para la evaluación de calidad y transculturización de guías de práctica clínica a nuestro medio, un grupo multidisciplinario realizó una revisión sistemática de la literatura: se seleccionaron las guías internacionales, las cuales fueron evaluadas con el instrumento AGREE II en términos de calidad. Con la guía base seleccionada se buscó la evidencia existente para contestar a las preguntas, de acuerdo con el método de desarrollo de recomendaciones GRADE. Se realizaron recomendaciones para la estratificación, el diagnóstico, el tratamiento y la prevención de la infección y enfermedad por citomegalovirus en pacientes adultos con trasplante renal en Colombia.

Cytomegalovirus is a primary cause of infection and illness in patients who have had renal transplantation, with a significant impact on morbidity, mortality and economic costs. However, there is no standardized clinical practice in transplant centers in Colombia, and it is important to have guidelines to stratify, diagnose, treat and prevent cytomegalovirus infection and disease. Through ADAPTE's methodology for the quality evaluation and adaptation of clinical practice guidelines in our setting, a multidisciplinary group carried out a systematic review of the medical literature, selecting international guidelines that were evaluated with the AGREE-II instrument in terms of quality. With each selected guideline, an evidence table was constructed and the GRADE strategy was performed to develop recommendations. Recommendations related to stratification, laboratory diagnosis, treatment and prevention of infections and disease caused by cytomegalovirus in adult transplant patients were developed.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine the molecular epidemiology and presence of virulence genes in community-acquired (CA) and hospital-acquired (HA) methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates and their relationship to clinical outcomes. METHODS: An observational and prospective study of infections caused by MRSA was conducted between June 2006 and December 2007 across seven hospitals in three Colombian cities. MRSA isolates were analyzed for SCCmec. Also, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and multilocus sequence typing were performed and 25 virulence genes were identified. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventy isolates were collected from 262 adult hospital patients with MRSA infections. Overall, 68% of the isolates were classified as HA-MRSA and 32% as CA-MRSA. We identified differences in the patterns of virulence genes: 85% of HA-MRSA isolates possessed the enterotoxin gene cluster (egc), whereas 92% of CA-MRSA isolates possessed the lukF-PV/lukS-PV genes. Multivariate analysis showed an increased risk of mortality for seg (p=0.001, odds ratio 4.73) and a protective effect for eta (p=0.018, odds ratio 0.33). CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms that three clones of MRSA predominantly circulate in Colombia: a Chilean clone, a pediatric clone that causes HA-MRSA infections, and a USA300-related clone (SCCmec IVc) in CA-MRSA infections, which differ in the content of clinically important virulence genes. This study confirms that PVL is not a determinant of severity or mortality in CA-MRSA infections.

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BACKGROUND: Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains (CA-MRSA) have emerged as the causative agent of health care-associated infections. METHODS: An observational and prospective study was carried out in 5 hospitals in Bogotá, Colombia; severe MRSA infections were identified, and their origin led to classification as health care-associated (HA-MRSA), community-associated, or nosocomial infections. MRSA isolates were analyzed by SCCmec, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, multilocus sequence typing, and virulence factors. RESULTS: Twenty-six (10.4%) CA-MRSA nosocomial infection-causing strains (eg, USA300) were detected in 250 MRSA infection isolates in mainly primary bacteremia and surgical site infections. The mortality related to nosocomial infection by CA-MRSA was 27%. CONCLUSION: The presence of nosocomial infection by CA-MRSA in Colombia was confirmed.

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Objetivo Establecer la capacidad predictiva para infección del sitio quirúrgico (ISQ) de los índices de riesgo del National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance System (NNIS) y Study on the Efficacy of Nosocomial Infection Control (SENIC) en cinco hospitales y, evaluar la capacidad predictiva de otros factores de riesgo. Métodos Cohorte prospectiva de pacientes sometidos a cirugía entre julio de 2006 a febrero de 2007 en cinco hospitales de Colombia. Se definió ISQ según los criterios del CDC. Se evaluaron variables como: edad, género, coomorbilidad, tipo de cirugía, herida, especialidad, tiempo quirúrgico y desenlace. Se evaluó el desempeño operativo de los índices usando el área bajo la curva operador receptor; se construyó un modelo predictivo usando un modelo de regresión logística incondicional con las variables asociadas a infección en el análisis bivariado y/o aquellas conocidas por estudios previos. Resultados Fueron evaluados 7 022 procedimientos quirúrgicos con una tasa de ISQ de 2,9 por ciento. El rendimiento de los índices de riesgo NNIS y SENIC fue muy similar para predecir ISQ (área bajo la curva de 0,682 IC95 por ciento 0,641-0,710 y 0,668 IC95 por ciento 0.641-0.722, respectivamente). Se construyó un modelo predictivo que incluía variables del NNIS y SENIC, además de edad, antecedente de diabetes, transfusiones y especialidad quirúrgica el cual mostró un desempeño de 0,746 (IC95 por ciento 0,709-0,783), en ISQ superficial de 0,70 (IC95 por ciento 0,659-0,741), en ISQ profunda de 0,712 (IC95 por ciento 0,673-0,751) y en ISQ órgano espacio de 0,719 (IC95 por ciento 0,683-0,755). Conclusiones Los modelos de predicción existentes para ISQ tienen una moderada capacidad discriminativa pero pueden ser mejorados con algunos factores locales.

Objective Establishing the effectiveness of the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance System (NNIS) and Study of the Efficacy of Nosocomial Infection Control's (SENIC) prognostic surgical site infection (SSI) indices in Colombian hospitals and assessing the influence of other risk factors. Methods A prospective, multicentre cohort study was conducted in five Colombian hospitals. All patients undergoing surgery requiring hospitalisation or ambulatory surgeries having a greater risk of infection were enrolled. A case was defined as being those subjects who presented the CDC diagnostic criteria of incisional superficial, deep incisional or organ-space SSI. Age, gender, co-morbidities, type of surgery, procedures, medical specialty, type of wound, surgical time, antibiotic prophylaxis and patient outcome were used for developing a predictive model of SSI using logistical regression analysis. The indexes' predictive ability was assessed by using the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC). Results 7,022 surgical procedures were evaluated and SSI rate was 2.9 percent. NNIS and SENIC risk index performance was similar to that for predicting SSI (0.68 cf 0.66 area under ROC, respectively). The new predictive model involved other factors such as age, diabetes mellitus, transfusions and surgical specialty showing 0.74 operating performance. Conclusions Existing SSI predictive models have a moderate ability for predicting SSI but this can be improved with some local factors.

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Objetivo: caracterización de un brote de infección por Acinetobacter baumannii y determinación de los factores asociados. Diseño: estudio de casos y controles anidado en una cohorte de pacientes críticos entre octubre de 2003 y marzo de 2004. Criterios de inclusión: haber estado hospitalizado en la unidad de cuidados intensivos en el mismo periodo y ser sometidos a procedimientos invasivos. Se excluyeron los pacientes que fallecieron en las primeras 24 horas de haber ingresado a la unidad de cuidados intensivos o que habían sido remitidos de otras instituciones. Se evaluó edad, sexo, antecedentes de enfermedad crónica, índice de intervención terapéutica (therapeutic index score system, TISS), tiempo de uso de dispositivos invasivos, tipo de nutrición, exposición previa a antibióticos, procedimiento quirúrgico, tiempo de uso de exposición y estancia. La investigación epidemiológica de los aislamientos incluyó la tipificación molecular mediante electroforesis en gel de campo pulsado. Resultados: los aislamientos de A baumannii provenientes de los pacientes infectados y de los cultivos de vigilancia fueron resistentes a múltiples antibióticos. Los aislamientos se encontraron relacionados genéticamente con un porcentaje de similitud mayor del 97 por ciento. Se encontró asociación estadísticamente significativa entre la infección de A. baumannii y un mayor puntaje de intervención terapéutica durante la hospitalización (p=0,030), uso de nutrición parenteral (0=0,030) y tiempo de exposición (p=0,02 super índice 2). Conclusiones: la infección por A baumannii, Se asoció a un mayor índice de intervención terapeútica, al uso de nutrición parenteral y al tiempo de exposición. Los aislamientos se encontraron relacionados genéticamente.

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OBJECTIVE: Establishing the effectiveness of the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance System (NNIS) and Study of the Efficacy of Nosocomial Infection Control's (SENIC) prognostic surgical site infection (SSI) indices in Colombian hospitals and assessing the influence of other risk factors. METHODS: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was conducted in five Colombian hospitals. All patients undergoing surgery requiring hospitalisation or ambulatory surgeries having a greater risk of infection were enrolled. A case was defined as being those subjects who presented the CDC diagnostic criteria of incisional superficial, deep incisional or organ-space SSI. Age, gender, co-morbidities, type of surgery, procedures, medical specialty, type of wound, surgical time, antibiotic prophylaxis and patient outcome were used for developing a predictive model of SSI using logistical regression analysis. The indexes' predictive ability was assessed by using the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC). RESULTS: 7,022 surgical procedures were evaluated and SSI rate was 2.9%. NNIS and SENIC risk index performance was similar to that for predicting SSI (0.68 cf 0.66 area under ROC, respectively). The new predictive model involved other factors such as age, diabetes mellitus, transfusions and surgical specialty showing 0.74 operating performance. CONCLUSIONS: Existing SSI predictive models have a moderate ability for predicting SSI but this can be improved with some local factors.

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