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Theory suggests that the decision to return to employment after childbirth and the decision to breast-feed may be jointly determined. We estimate models of simultaneous equations for two different aspects of the relationship between maternal employment and breast-feeding using 1993-1994 data from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Infant Feeding Practices Study. We first explore the simultaneous duration of breast-feeding and work leave following childbirth. We find that the duration of leave from work significantly affects the duration of breast-feeding, but the effect of breast-feeding on work leave is insignificant. We also estimate models of the daily hours of work and breast-feedings at infant ages 3 months and 6 months postpartum. At both times, the intensity of work effort significantly affects the intensity of breast-feeding, but the reverse is generally not found. Competition clearly exists between work and breast-feeding for many women in our sample.

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"In this paper we estimate the impact of the [U.S.] federal individual income tax on the timing of marital decisions.... Using household data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics, we estimate various models of the probability of delaying marriage as a function of the change in tax burden caused by marriage (as well as several other variables). We find that there is a significant positive relationship between the marriage penalty in a year and the probability of delaying marriage until the following year. The magnitude of the effect, however, is small."

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In this paper we examine the impact of the resource of children and of their parents on the children's transition to residential and financial independence. Previous studies of this transition focused primarily on the impact of family structure and parent-child relationships on the decision to leave home, but much less in known about the role of economic factors in the transition to independence. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for the period 1968-1988, we estimate discrete-hazard models of the probability of achieving residential and financial independence. We find that the child's wage opportunities and the parents' income are important determinants of establishing independence. The effect of parental income changes with the child's age. We also find some evidence that federal tax policy influences the decision to become independent, although the magnitude of this effect is quite small.

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"This paper discusses new empirical evidence on the role of income tax incentives in marital decisions [in the United States]. Time-series evidence suggests that taxes have a small but statistically significant effect on the aggregate marriage rate; however, this evidence is sensitive to the time period and the measure of marriage. Additional evidence, based on household longitudinal data, indicates that the probability of marriage falls and that of divorce rises with an increase in the so-called marriage tax, and that the timing of marriage (though not of divorce) is also affected by taxes. In short, there is strong evidence that taxes affect some marital decisions."

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PIP: This study tests the hypothesis that fertility is affected differently by economic growth depending upon the specific sector (agriculture, manufacturing, heavy industry, and services) where growth occurred. The hypothesis is that fertility responses are not identical across sectors. The sample includes 51 World Bank member countries in varying stages of development. The econometric model pertains to 1965-88 and the percentage change in the total fertility rate (TFR). During the study period the average TFR declined by over 22%, but the extent of change varied by country and included, for instance, countries such as Ethiopia that experienced fertility increases from 5.8 to 6.5. Hong Kong's TFR declined by 66% from 4.7 to 1.6. Analysis included measures of changes in gross domestic product (GDP) for each of the four sectors and change in real per capita exports in agricultural commodities, resources, and manufactured products. Changes in educational status and changes in infant mortality were also included in some models. There were mixed results for the impact of total GDP. Sectoral analysis shows a positive, small significant impact on TFR from changes in the GDP per capita in agriculture (domestic and export products), and a negative, small significant impact from manufacturing growth. Heavy industry and services produced insignificant impact. In the model with only domestic consumption, results show a stronger coefficient and continued significance for agricultural productivity, agricultural exports, and manufacturing changes per capita. Manufacturing exports produced a negative, insignificant impact. The null hypothesis is rejected only in models comparing aggregate GDP in agriculture and manufacturing industries plus control variables (excluding heavy industry and services). Only secondary education was a negative, significant determinant of fertility. Infant mortality was insignificant when sectoral growth and education were included in the model. The evidence supports the thesis that growth depending on the sector leads to fertility decline, and economic growth has a negative effect on fertility if employment opportunities for women are improved.^ieng

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PIP: Ejidos are communal holding groups of redistributed land expropriated (generally without compensation) from large private landowners during Mexico's post-1910 land reform. The model in this study of the "ejidal" system's influence on fertility differs from DeVany and Sanchez in providing more current data and including the following more detailed variables: the land area of ejidos and the number of ejidos, the need for children, male income, female income share, and social security coverage. The data pertains to states rather than municipalities. DeVany and Sanchez found that the ejidal system encouraged fertility, because having more children helped an ejido family retain land rights, increased its chances of gaining additional productive land, and gave it increased political power. Children also provided a means of intergenerational transfer of resources. The estimation results of this study revealed that the total proportion of land held as ejidos had a positive, significant effect on fertility. The ratio of ejidos to total number of farms was negative and significant. There was support for the hypothesis that the impact of ejidos land holdings and area was diminished when ejidos were dominant in the state. Fertility declined with the increase in unpaid workers per hectare of land. Elasticity functions were small: 0.075 on ejidal land, -0.222 on ejidal farms, and -0.045 on workers. A positive significant demographic effect on fertility was illiteracy. Infant mortality and female income share each had a negative, significant effect on fertility. Insignificant variables were male income, social security coverage, and the dummy for northern states. There have been changes in the Mexican ejidal system. These changes and the availability of farm labor are expected to reduce urban and rural fertility differentials.^ieng

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PIP: Data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics, excluding the low income Survey of Economic Opportunity, were used to test an empirical model of the relationship between US state tax exemption values and tax rates for couples and fertility. Income is held constant so that the real tax exemption value is affected by changes in tax rates, the price level, or the statutory value of the exemption. Prior research by Whittington et al. found a positive relationship between births and the federal exemption between 1979-83 for 294 households. The tax value of the exemption varies widely across states. There are 41 states with substantial personal income taxes, while seven states have no state personal income taxes. A very limited tax on personal income is collected in Tennessee, New Hampshire, and Connecticut. Pennsylvania has no dependency exemption. The range in exemption varies from $1500 in Georgia to $300 in Alabama. Tax credits in lieu of exemptions vary from $6 in Arkansas to $85 in Oregon. Tax rates also vary across states. The value of the exemption lowers the cost of a child and is not constant over time. Six models are specified. Model 1 uses combined state and federal exemptions. Models 2 and 3 use a lagged combined exemption value of one and two years. Models 4 and 6 use state exemptions separated from federal exemptions. Model 5 uses a lag of one year, and model 6 uses a lag of two years. The estimation results of the conditional logit (Chamberlain) Model 1 show a negative and significant coefficient, which suggests that exemptions are not an incentive for births. In Models 2 and 3, the coefficient is positive and significant. In Model 4, the pattern of Model 1 holds except the sign is positive. In Models 5 and 6, the federal exemption is positive and significant, and the state exemption is negative and significant. When substitution is made with the means of the predicted values for the exemption, Models 1-4 all become positive and significant. In models with income as a constant, income reduces the impact of the dependency exemption on fertility. Neither state or federal exemptions are a determinant of fertility but serve as a policy tool for motivating average family size.^ieng

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In this paper I use data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics to examine the relationship between the dependent exemption feature of the United States federal income tax (an unambiguous subsidy to dependents) and the fertility behavior of married couples over the period 1979-1983. The exemption decreases the price of a child to a household, thus having a direct relationship to the timing and/or number of children observed in a family. Conditional logit results support this hypothesis by showing that the exemption has a positive and significant impact on the likelihood of having a birth during the period under study.

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