RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Obesity prevalence in the United States appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. DESIGN AND METHODS: A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and nonsocial influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. RESULTS: The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birthrate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence.
Asunto(s)
Transición de la Salud , Modelos Biológicos , Obesidad Mórbida/epidemiología , Obesidad/epidemiología , Sobrepeso/epidemiología , Algoritmos , Tasa de Natalidad , Índice de Masa Corporal , Países Desarrollados , Promoción de la Salud , Humanos , Política Nutricional , Obesidad/diagnóstico , Obesidad/mortalidad , Obesidad/prevención & control , Obesidad Mórbida/diagnóstico , Obesidad Mórbida/mortalidad , Obesidad Mórbida/prevención & control , Sobrepeso/diagnóstico , Sobrepeso/mortalidad , Sobrepeso/prevención & control , Prevalencia , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Aumento de PesoRESUMEN
Three of the four main stages of anaerobic digestion: acidogenesis, acetogenesis, and methanogenesis are described by a system of differential equations modelling the interaction of microbial populations in a chemostat. The microbes consume and/or produce simple substrates, alcohols and fatty acids, acetic acid, and hydrogen. Acetogenic bacteria and hydrogenotrophic methanogens interact through syntrophy. The model also includes the inhibition of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogens due to sensitivity to varying pH-levels. To examine the effects of these interactions and inhibitions, we first study an inhibition-free model and obtain results for global stability using differential inequalities together with conservation laws. For the model with inhibition, we derive conditions for existence, local stability, and bistability of equilibria and present a global stability result. A case study illustrates the effects of inhibition on the regions of stability. Inhibition introduces regions of bistability and stabilizes some equilibria.
Asunto(s)
Bacterias/metabolismo , Reactores Biológicos/microbiología , Interacciones Microbianas , Modelos Biológicos , AnaerobiosisRESUMEN
Anaerobic digestion has been modeled as a two-stage process using coupled chemostat models with non-monotone growth functions, [9]. This study incorporates the effects of an external toxin. After reducing the model to a 3-dimensional system, global stability of boundary and interior equilibria is proved using differential inequalities and comparisons to the corresponding toxin-free model. Conditions are given under which the behavior of the toxin-free model is preserved. Introduction of the toxin results in additional patterns such as bistabilities of coexistence steady states or of a periodic orbit and an interior steady state.