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The incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) recipients is significantly higher than that of the general public. Although routine antiviral prophylaxis is recommended, late-onset HZ has been highlighted, yet limited information is known about its clinical features and predictors. Here, we conducted a retrospective nested case-control study to identify patients with late-onset HZ, defined as a diagnosis of HZ after 1 year of transplantation, among allo-HSCT recipients between 2012 and 2017 at Peking University People's Hospital. Three controls were matched for each patient. A total of 201 patients developed late-onset HZ. Age over 20 years, absence of neutrophil engraftment by 14 days, mental disorders, immunosuppressant use at 1 year, and a peripheral CD4+/CD8+ ratio ≥0.5 at 1 year were independent risk factors, among which the CD4+/CD8+ ratio demonstrated good discriminative power for predicting late-onset HZ. For patients with a CD4+/CD8+ ratio <0.5, patient age, neutrophil engraftment time, mental disorders, and immunosuppressant use were potential risk factors. A stratification algorithm was accordingly established, classifying the transplant recipients into three risk groups. Whether the algorithm could facilitate the administration of posttransplant antiviral prophylaxis merits further validation.

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Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (AHCT) is a commonly used treatment in multiple myeloma (MM). However, real-world global demographic and outcome data are scarce. We collected data on baseline characteristics and outcomes from 61 725 patients with newly diagnosed MM who underwent upfront AHCT between 2013 and 2017 from nine national/international registries. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and the secondary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS), relapse incidence (RI) and non-relapse mortality (NRM). Median OS amounted to 90.2 months (95% CI 88.2-93.6) and median PFS 36.5 months (95% CI 36.1-37.0). At 24 months, cumulative RI was 33% (95% CI 32.5%-33.4%) and NRM was 2.5% (95% CI 2.3%-2.6%). In the multivariate analysis, superior outcomes were associated with younger age, IgG subtype, complete hematological response at auto-HCT, Karnofsky score of 100%, international staging scoring (ISS) stage 1, HCT-comorbidity index (CI) 0, standard cytogenetic risk, auto-HCT in recent years, and use of lenalidomide maintenance. There were differences in the baseline characteristics and outcomes between registries. While the NRM was 1%-3% at 12 months worldwide, the OS at 36 months was 69%-84%, RI at 12 months was 12%-24% and PFS at 36 months was 43%-63%. The variability in these outcomes is attributable to differences in patient and disease characteristics as well as the use of maintenance and macroeconomic factors. In conclusion, worldwide data indicate that AHCT in MM is a safe and effective therapy with an NRM of 1%-3% with considerable regional differences in OS, PFS, RI, and patient characteristics. Maintenance treatment post-AHCT had a beneficial effect on OS.

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The objective of this study was to identify independent prognostic factors of viral encephalitis (VE) after allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) and establish a prognostic model to identify post-transplant VE patients with a greater likelihood of mortality. Among 5380 patients in our centre from 2014 to 2022, 211 patients who developed VE after allo-HSCT were reviewed in this retrospective study. Prognostic factors were selected, and a prognostic model was constructed using Cox regression analysis. The model was subsequently validated and estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA). Glasgow Coma Scale score <9, lesions >3 lobes on magnetic resonance imaging and severe thrombocytopenia were identified as independent prognostic risk factors for VE patients who underwent allo-HSCT. The prognostic model GTM (GTM is an abbreviation for a model composed of three risk factors: GCS score <9, severe thrombocytopenia [platelet count <20 000 per microliter], and lesions >3 lobes on MRI) was established according to the regression coefficients. The validated internal AUC was 0.862 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.773-0.950), and the external AUC was 0.815 (95% CI, 0.708-0.922), indicating strong discriminatory ability. Furthermore, we constructed calibration plots that demonstrated good consistency between the predicted outcomes and the observed outcomes. DCA exhibited high accuracy in this system, leading to potential benefits for patients.

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Basiliximab is an important treatment for steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease (SR-aGVHD). We performed this retrospective study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of basiliximab treatment in SR-aGVHD patients following matched sibling donor hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (MSD-HSCT) (n = 63). Overall response rate (ORR) was 63.5% and 54% at any time and at day 28 after basiliximab treatment. Grade III-IV aGVHD before basiliximab treatment predicted a poor ORR after basiliximab treatment. The rates of virus, bacteria, and fungi infections were 54%, 23.8%, and 3.1%, respectively. With a median follow-up of 730 (range, 67-3,042) days, the 1-year probability of overall survival and disease-free survival after basiliximab treatment were 58.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 47.6%-72.2%) and 55.4% (95% CI = 44.3%-69.2%), respectively. The 3-year cumulative incidence of relapse and non-relapse mortality after basiliximab treatment were 18.9% (95% CI = 8.3%-29.5%) and 33.8% (95% CI = 21.8%-45.7%), respectively. Comorbidities burden before allo-HSCT, severity of aGVHD and liver aGVHD before basiliximab treatment showed negative influences on survival. Thus, basiliximab was safe and effective treatment for SR-aGVHD following MSD-HSCT.

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We aimed to identify the severity and duration of COVID-19 infection on complications after allo-HSCT. Enrolled 179 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were categorized into long-term infection (> 18 days, n = 90) or short-term infection group (≤ 18 days, n = 89) according to the median duration of COVID-19. The severity of COVID-19 was categorized as asymptomatic infection, mild, moderate, severe, and critical illness according to guidelines of National Institutes of Health. Particularly, severe illness and critical illness were classified as serious infection. Asymptomatic infection, mild illness and moderate illness were classified as non-serious infection. The 150-day probabilities of poor graft function (PGF), cytomegalovirus (CMV) pneumonia and non-relapse mortality (NRM) were significantly higher in long-term infection group. The 150-day probabilities of CMV pneumonia and NRM after COVID-19 were higher in serious infection group. The 150-day probabilities of overall survival (OS) was significantly lower in long-term and serious infection group. In multivariable analysis, the severity of COVID-19 was associated with NRM and OS, and the duration of COVID-19 was associated with PGF. In summary, our data reported that the severity and duration of COVID-19 were associated with several complications and contribute to poor outcomes after allo-HSCT.

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Engraftment syndrome (ES) is one of the most common complications in the early phase after autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (ASCT), and we aimed to evaluate the incidence and risk factors for ES patients receiving ASCT in the era of plerixafor-based mobilization. A total of 294 were enrolled, and 16.0% (n = 47) experienced ES after ASCT. The main clinical manifestations were fever (100%), diarrhea (78.7%), skin rash (23.4%), and hypoxemia/pulmonary edema (12.8%). Plerixafor-based mobilization was associated with higher counts of CD3+ cells, CD4+ cells, and CD8+ cells in grafts. In univariate analysis of the total cohort, age ≥60 years, receiving ASCT at complete remission (CR), higher number of mononuclear cell (MNC), CD3+ cell counts, CD4+ cells as well as CD8+ cells transfused and plerixafor-based mobilization were associated with ES after ASCT. Multivariate analysis showed that age ≥60 years (P = .0014), receiving ASCT at CR (P = .002), and higher number of MNC transfused (P = .026) were associated with ES in total cohort. In plasma cell disease subgroup, age ≥60 years (P = .013), plerixafor-based mobilization (P = .036), and receiving ASCT at CR (P = .002) were associated with ES. Patients with more risk factors had a higher risk of ES. The 1-year probabilities of relapse, non-relapse mortality, and survival were comparable between patients with and without ES. Thus, plerixafor-based mobilization may influence the composition of T lymphocytes in grafts and increase the risk of ES, particularly in patients with plasma cell disease.

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Intestinal steroid refractory acute graft-versus-host disease (SR-aGVHD) is the major cause of mortality in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). This retrospective cohort study aimed to identify the relationship between different steroid decreasing velocity and therapeutic response in patients with intestinal SR-aGVHD receiving basiliximab treatment, and also aimed to propose a reasonable steroid decreasing regimen for these patients. The median time for steroid dose decreasing to the 50% of initial dose and decreasing to the low-dose steroid for patients achieving ORR was 5 days and 12 days, respectively, which was both shorter than patients without achieving ORR. The ORR, NRM and survival in rapid and medium steroid decreasing group were all better than slow group. The cumulative incidence of ORR at any time was 90.4%, 78.1% and 62.3%, respectively, in rapid, medium, and slow group. The cumulative incidence of NRM at 1 year after basiliximab treatment was 18.7% (95% CI 11.3%-26.1%), 22.8% (95% CI 14.2%-31.4%) and 32.8% (95% CI 24.1%-41.5%), respectively, in rapid, medium, and slow group. The probability of OS at 1 year after basiliximab treatment was 76.9% (95% CI 68.9%-84.9%), 72.7% (95% CI 63.7%-81.7%), and 62.3% (95% CI 53.5%-71.1%), respectively, in rapid, medium, and slow group. Hence, it was helpful to decrease steroid to the 50% of initial dose ≤ 5 days and to the low-dose steroid ≤ 12 days after basiliximab treatment for intestinal SR-aGVHD patients, which may also be the reasonable steroid decrease protocol for these patients.

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Graft failure is a fatal complication following allogeneic stem cell transplantation where a second transplantation is usually required for salvage. However, there are no recommended regimens for second transplantations for graft failure, especially in the haploidentical transplant setting. We recently reported encouraging outcomes using a novel method (haploidentical transplantation from a different donor after conditioning with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide). Herein, we report updated outcomes in 30 patients using this method. The median time of the second transplantation was 96.5 (33-215) days after the first transplantation. Except for one patient who died at +19d and before engraftment, neutrophil engraftments were achieved in all patients at 11 (8-24) days, while platelet engraftments were achieved in 22 (75.8%) patients at 17.5 (9-140) days. The 1-year OS and DFS were 60% and 53.3%, and CIR and TRM was 6.7% and 33.3%, respectively. Compared with the historical group, neutrophil engraftment (100% versus 58.5%, p < 0.001) and platelet engraftment (75.8% versus 32.3%, p < 0.001) were better in the novel regimen group, and OS was also improved (60.0% versus 26.4%, p = 0.011). In conclusion, salvage haploidentical transplantation from a different donor using the novel regimen represents a promising option to rescue patients with graft failure after the first haploidentical transplantation.

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Herpes zoster (HZ) refers to the rash appearing on dermatomes due to varicella zoster virus (VZV) reactivation. The incidence of HZ is significantly higher in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) recipients than in non-HSCT recipients. Although acyclovir prophylaxis is routinely administered to every allo-HSCT recipient for 1 year after transplantation, some individuals eventually develop late-onset HZ after completing prophylaxis. Little information is known about the clinical features of HZ after prophylactic antiviral treatment discontinuation, and an effective predictive model of late-onset HZ needs to be established. A total of 3366 patients who had received allo-HSCT from 2012 to 2017 were included in our study, among whom 201 developed HZ after 1 year (late-onset HZ). We designed a nested case-control study to identify potential predictors of late-onset HZ. Finally, we established a predictive model using binary logistic regression analysis. Age (p < .001), use of immunosuppressants at +1 year (p < .001), CD4-CD8 ratio at +1 year (p < .001), certain mental disorders (depression, anxiety, insomnia and adjustment disorder) (p < .001), engraftment time of neutrophils (p < .001), and CD8+ cell count at +30 days (p < .001) were independent predictors of late-onset HZ. A risk grading system was established based on regression coefficients. Discrimination and calibration analysis indicated that the model had good performance. We also identified several predictive factors of the incidence of HZ-related complications. This is the first scoring system for predicting the incidence of late-onset HZ after allo-HSCT. This model can be applied to identify individuals at high risk of late-onset HZ in the early period after receiving allo-HSCT.

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Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) is the most important curative method for intermediate- and high-risk adult acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. We aimed to identify the clinical outcomes of haploidentical related donor (HID) peripheral blood stem cell transplantation (PBSCT) who receiving peripheral blood (G-PB) harvest, and the patients receiving bone marrow (BM) plus G-PB harvest (BM + PB) as grafts were enrolled as control. The engraftments of neutrophil and platelet in G-PB group were both faster than those in BM + PB group. The cumulative incidences of grade II-IV acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD), and moderate to severe chronic GVHD (cGVHD) were all comparable between G-PB and BM + PB groups. The cumulative incidence of relapse and non-relapse mortality at 3 years after HID HSCT was 12.6% versus 13.7% (p = 0.899) and 3.6% versus 7.3% (p = 0.295), respectively, in G-PB and BM + PB group. While the probabilities of GVHD-free/relapse-free survival, leukemia-free survival, and overall survival at 3 years after HID HSCT were 60.6% versus 53.4% (p = 0.333), 83.8% versus 79.0% (p = 0.603), and were 87.3% versus 82.9% (p = 0.670), respectively. We confirmed the safety and efficacy of HID PBSCT in intermediate- and high-risk AML patients in a large cohort.

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Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) is a common and potentially devastating noninfectious pulmonary complication after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Currently, predictive tools for BOS are not available. We aimed to identify the clinical risk factors and establish a prognostic model for BOS in patients who undergo allo-HSCT. We retrospectively identified a cohort comprising 195 BOS patients from 6100 consecutive patients who were allografted between 2008 and 2022. The entire cohort was divided into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort based on the time of transplantation. Via multivariable Cox regression methods, declining forced expiratory volume at 1 s (FEV1) to <40%, pneumonia, cGVHD except lung, and respiratory failure were found to be independent risk factors for the 3-year mortality of BOS. A risk score called FACT was constructed based on the regression coefficients. The FACT model had an AUC of 0.863 (95% CI: 0.797-0.928) in internal validation and 0.749 (95% CI: 0.621-0.876) in external validation. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the FACT-predicted probabilities and actual observations. The FACT risk score will help to identify patients at high risk and facilitate future research on developing novel, effective interventions to personalize treatment.

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Septic shock remains a potentially life-threatening complication among allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (allo-HSCT) recipients. There is a paucity of information on the clinical characteristics, outcome and prognostic factors of septic shock patients after allo-HSCT. We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of septic shock after allo-HSCT and its associated health outcomes and to evaluate the role of patient demographics, transplantation-related laboratory and clinical variables associated with the short-term mortality of septic shock after allo-HSCT. We retrospectively studied 242 septic shock patients from 6105 consecutive patients allografted between 2007 and 2021. We assessed 29 risk factors as candidate predictors and used multivariable logistic regression to establish clinical model. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. The median age of the subjects was 34 (IQR 24 to 45) years. A total of 148 patients (61.2%) had positive blood cultures. Gram-negative bacilli accounted for 61.5% of the positive isolates, gram-positive cocci accounted for 12.2%, and fungi accounted for 6.1%. Coinfections were found in 30 (20.3%) patients. Escherichia coli was the dominant isolated pathogen (31.1%), followed by Pseudomonas spp. (12.8%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (10.1%). With a median follow-up of 34 (IQR: 2 to 528) days, a total of 142 (58.7%) patients died, of whom 118 (48.8%) died within the first 28 days after septic shock diagnosis, 131 (54.1%) died within 90 days, and 141 (58.3%) died within 1 year. A large majority of deaths (83.1% [118/142]) occurred within 28 days of septic shock diagnosis. Finally, 6 independent predictive variables of 28-day mortality were identified by multivariable logistic regression: time of septic shock, albumin, bilirubin, PaO2/FiO2, lactate, and sepsis-induced coagulopathy. Patients with late onset shock had higher 28-day mortality rates (64.6% versus 25.5%, P < .001) and more ICU admission (32.6% versus 7.1%, P < .001) than those with early onset shock. We highlight the poor survival outcomes in patients who develop septic shock, emphasizing the need for increasing awareness regarding septic shock after allo-HSCT. The information from the current study may help to assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients.

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BACKGROUND: The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the common clinical adverse events associated with sodium/glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) use compared to placebo in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with or without type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Twelve articles were chosen via a systematic search of the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases. We screened for randomised placebo-controlled trials. The main clinical adverse events included diabetes ketoacidosis (DKA), amputation, and volume depletion. We performed heterogeneity testing and assessment of publication bias. RESULTS: In all, 65 600 patients were included in the analysis. Compared to placebo, SGLT2i may increase the risk of DKA and volume depletion in patients with CKD with or without type 2 diabetes. For DKA, compared with placebo, the combined effect of SGLT2i was OR 2.03 (95% CI: 1.28 to 3.23 I2: 2.3%, P: 0.420). For volume depletion, compared with placebo, the combined effect of SGLT2i was OR 1.24 (95% CI: 1.13 to 1.37 I2: 0.0%, P: 0.484). For the risk of amputation, despite low heterogeneity for amputation, the forest plot indicated no statistical significance, and thus it cannot be concluded that SGLT2i increases the risk of amputation. Compared with placebo, the combined effect of SGLT2i was OR 1.10 (95% CI: 0.94 to 1.29 I2: 0.0%, P: 0.642). CONCLUSION: The use of SGLT2i may increase the risk of DKA and volume depletion in patients with chronic renal insufficiency with or without type 2 diabetes.

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We aimed to identify the efficacy of haploidentical related donor (HID) haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in adolescent and young adults (AYAs) with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in a large cohort. Consecutive AML AYAs (15-39 years old, n = 599) receiving HID HSCT in complete remission (CR) were included. The 3-year cumulative incidence of measurable residual disease occurrence, relapse and non-relapse mortality after HID HSCT was 28.6% (95% CI: 25.0-32.2), 11.6% (95% CI: 9.0-14.2) and 6.7% (95% CI: 4.7-8.7) respectively. The 3-year probability of event-free survival, leukaemia-free survival (LFS) and overall survival (OS) after HID HSCT was 60.7% (95% CI: 56.9-64.8), 81.7% (95% CI: 78.7-84.9) and 85.6% (95% CI: 82.8-88.4) respectively. In multivariable analysis, AML risk category at diagnosis and comorbidity burdens before HID HSCT were independently associated with LFS and OS. Compared to the older adults (≥ 40 years, n = 355) with AML receiving HID HSCT in CR during the same time period, AYAs have a lower incidence of non-relapse mortality and higher probabilities of LFS and OS. Thus, we firstly confirmed the safety and efficacy of HID HSCT in AYAs with AML-CR.

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Introduction: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) remains a major strategy to cure patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The aim of this study was to evaluate whether isolated flow cytometry (FCM)-positive central nervous system (CNS) involvement before allo-HSCT is clinically significant. Methods: The effects of isolated FCM-positive CNS involvement prior to transplantation on the outcomes of 1406 ALL patients with complete remission (CR) were retrospectively investigated. Results: Patients were classified into isolated FCM-positive CNS involvement (n=31), cytology-positive CNS involvement (n = 43), and negative CNS involvement (n = 1332) groups. Among the three groups, the 5-year cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) values were 42.3%, 48.8%, and 23.4%, respectively (P<0.001). The 5-year leukemia-free survival (LFS) values were 44.7%, 34.9%, and 60.8%, respectively (P<0.001). Compared with the negative CNS group (n=1332), the 5-year CIR of the pre-HSCT CNS involvement group (n=74) was higher (46.3% vs. 23.4%, P<0.001], and the 5-year LFS was inferior (39.1% vs. 60.8%, P<0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that four variables, T-cell ALL, in second complete remission or beyond (CR2+) at HSCT, pre-HSCT measurable residual disease positivity, and pre-HSCT CNS involvement, were independently associated with a higher CIR and inferior LFS. A new scoring system was developed using the following four variables: low-risk, intermediate-risk, high-risk, and extremely high-risk groups. The 5-year CIR values were 16.9%, 27.8%, 50.9%, and 66.7%, respectively (P<0.001), while the 5-year LFS values were 67.6%, 56.9%, 31.0%, and 13.3%, respectively (P<0.001). Conclusion: Our results suggest that ALL patients with isolated FCM-positive CNS involvement are at a higher risk of recurrence after transplantation. Patients with pre-HSCT CNS involvement had higher CIR and inferior survival outcomes.

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Patients who receive allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) may develop sepsis, which result in a highly intensive care unit admission rate and mortality. Therefore, short-term and long-term prognostic models for sepsis after allo-HSCT are urgently needed. We enrolled patients receiving allo-HSCT who developed sepsis after allo-HSCT at Peking University People's Hospital between 2012 and 2021, including 287 patients who received allo-HSCT in 2018-2021 in the derivation cohort, and 337 patients in 2012-2017 in the validation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors, and these identified factors were incorporated into two scoring models. Seven independent factors (acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), chronic GVHD (cGVHD), total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and organ dysfunction [renal, lung and heart]) were included in the 6-month prognostic model, and six factors (cGVHD, C-reactive protein, LDH, organ dysfunction [lung, neurologic and coagulation]) were included in the 14-day prognostic model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots and decision curve analysis demonstrated the robust predictive performance of the models, better than the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. Early identification of patients with high risk of 6-month and 14-day death may allow clinicians to provide timely treatments and improve the therapeutic effects.

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Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) reactivation is one of the most important infections after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) using haplo-identical related donors (HID). We aimed to establish a comprehensive model with machine learning, which could predict EBV reactivation after HID HSCT with anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis. We enrolled 470 consecutive acute leukemia patients, 60% of them (n = 282) randomly selected as a training cohort, the remaining 40% (n = 188) as a validation cohort. The equation was as follows: Probability (EBV reactivation) =   1 1       +       e x p ( - Y ) , where Y = 0.0250 × (age) - 0.3614 × (gender) + 0.0668 × (underlying disease) - 0.6297 × (disease status before HSCT) - 0.0726 × (disease risk index) - 0.0118 × (hematopoietic cell transplantation-specific comorbidity index [HCT-CI] score) + 1.2037 × (human leukocyte antigen disparity) + 0.5347 × (EBV serostatus) + 0.1605 × (conditioning regimen) - 0.2270 × (donor/recipient gender matched) + 0.2304 × (donor/recipient relation) - 0.0170 × (mononuclear cell counts in graft) + 0.0395 × (CD34+ cell count in graft) - 2.4510. The threshold of probability was 0.4623, which separated patients into low- and high-risk groups. The 1-year cumulative incidence of EBV reactivation in the low- and high-risk groups was 11.0% versus 24.5% (P < .001), 10.7% versus 19.3% (P = .046), and 11.4% versus 31.6% (P = .001), respectively, in total, training and validation cohorts. The model could also predict relapse and survival after HID HSCT. We established a comprehensive model that could predict EBV reactivation in HID HSCT recipients using ATG for GVHD prophylaxis.

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Heart failure (HF) is an uncommon but serious cardiovascular complication after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Unfortunately, knowledge about early mortality prognostic factors in patients with HF after allo-HSCT is limited, and an easy-to-use prognostic model is not available. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical-biomarker prognostic model capable of predicting HF mortality following allo-HSCT that uses a combination of variables readily available in clinical practice. To investigate this issue, we conducted a retrospective analysis at our center with 154 HF patients who underwent allo-HSCT between 2008 and 2021. The patients were separated according to the time of transplantation, with 100 patients composing the derivation cohort and the other 54 patients composing the external validation cohort. We first calculated the univariable association for each variable with 2-month mortality in the derivation cohort. We then included the variables with a P value <.1 in univariate analysis as candidate predictors in the multivariate analysis using a backward stepwise logistic regression model. Variables remaining in the final model were identified as independent prognostic factors. To predict the prognosis of HF, a scoring system was established, and scores were assigned to the prognostic factors based on the regression coefficient. Finally, 4 strongly significant independent prognostic factors for 2-month mortality from HF were identified using multivariable logistic regression methods with stepwise variable selection: pulmonary infection (P = .005), grade III to IV acute graft-versus-host disease (severe aGVHD; P = .033), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) >426 U/L (P = .049), and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) >1799 pg/mL (P = .026). A risk grading model termed the BLIPS score (for BNP, LDH, cardiac troponin I, pulmonary infection, and severe aGVHD) was constructed according to the regression coefficients. The validated internal C-statistic was .870 (95% confidence interval [CI], .798 to .942), and the external C-statistic was .882 (95% CI, .791-.973). According to the calibration plots, the model-predicted probability correlated well with the actual observed frequencies. The clinical use of the prognostic model, according to decision curve analysis, could benefit HF patients. The BLIPS model in our study can serve to identify HF patients at higher risk for mortality early, which might aid designing timely targeted therapies and eventually improving patients' survival and prognosis.

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As a serious complication after allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), venous thromboembolism (VTE) is significantly related to increased nonrelapse mortality. Therefore distinguishing patients at high risk of death who should receive specific therapeutic management is key to improving survival. This study aimed to establish a machine learning-based prognostic model for the identification of post-transplantation VTE patients who have a high risk of death. We retrospectively evaluated 256 consecutive VTE patients who underwent allo-HSCT at our center between 2008 and 2019. These patients were further randomly divided into (1) a derivation (80%) cohort of 205 patients and (2) a test (20%) cohort of 51 patients. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach was used to choose the potential predictors from the primary dataset. Eight machine learning classifiers were used to produce 8 candidate models. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to internally evaluate the models and to select the best-performing model for external assessment using the test cohort. In total, 256 of 7238 patients were diagnosed with VTE after transplantation. Among them, 118 patients (46.1%) had catheter-related venous thrombosis, 107 (41.8%) had isolated deep-vein thrombosis (DVT), 20 (7.8%) had isolated pulmonary embolism (PE), and 11 (4.3%) had concomitant DVT and PE. The 2-year overall survival (OS) rate of patients with VTE was 68.8%. Using LASSO regression, 8 potential features were selected from the 54 candidate variables. The best-performing algorithm based on the 10-fold cross-validation runs was a logistic regression classifier. Therefore a prognostic model named BRIDGE was then established to predict the 2-year OS rate. The areas under the curves of the BRIDGE model were 0.883, 0.871, and 0.858 for the training, validation, and test cohorts, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed a high agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes. Decision curve analysis indicated that VTE patients could benefit from the clinical application of the prognostic model. A BRIDGE risk score calculator for predicting the study result is available online (47.94.162.105:8080/bridge/). We established the BRIDGE model to precisely predict the risk for all-cause death in VTE patients after allo-HSCT. Identifying VTE patients who have a high risk of death can help physicians treat these patients in advance, which will improve patient survival.

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