RESUMEN
There is clear evidence that high sodium intake is associated with many health issues including hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Several national and worldwide studies have estimated deaths from CVDs attributable to high sodium. But how to evaluate the impact of high sodium intake on diseases using regional routine monitoring and investigation data is necessary and important. Our study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the high sodium intake attributed to CVDs deaths based on the routine monitoring data from China National Nutrition and Health Survey (CNNHS) in Tianjin, China. The population attributable fractions (PAF) were calculated by comparing the observed systolic blood pressure (SBP) distribution with the theoretical minimum or counterfactual distribution by sex and age groups. The results showed that CVDs deaths due to elevated SBP were 22728 (95% uncertainty intervals: 22679-23050), accounting for 62.8% of total CVDs deaths. According to sodium intake recommended by World Health Organization (WHO), PAF of CVDs deaths attributable to high sodium diet in our study was 14.6% of total CVDs deaths, accounting for 5228 (95% UI: 5005-5998) cases. The dietary sodium intake of residents is nearly three times than sodium intake recommended by WHO. If sodium intake was reduced to reference level, the potential avoidable CVD deaths attributable to the SBP-raising effect were more than 5200 among adults 25 aged and over in Tianjin. This evaluation method can be extended to other cities.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedades del Sistema Nervioso Autónomo , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Hipertensión , Enfermedades Metabólicas , Sodio en la Dieta , Adulto , Humanos , Anciano , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Hipertensión/epidemiología , China/epidemiología , Dieta , Sodio en la Dieta/efectos adversos , SodioRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: We conducted a mortality case-control study to assess the risks of all-cause and major causes of death attributable to smoking in Tianjin from 2010 through 2014. The death registry-based study used data from The Tianjin All Causes of Death Surveillance System, which collects information routinely on smoking of the deceased in the death certificate of Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. METHODS: Cases (n = 154,086) and controls (n = 25,476) were deaths at 35 to 79 years from smoking-related and nonsmoking-related causes, respectively. Mortality rate ratios (RRs) for ever smokers versus never smokers, with adjustment for sex, 5-year age group, education, marital status, and year of death, and smoking-attributed fractions were calculated. RESULTS: The RRs in men were 1.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.43) for all causes and 3.07 (95% CI, 2.91-3.24) for lung cancer, and in women were 1.46 (95% CI, 1.39-1.54) and 4.07 (95% CI, 3.81-4.35). The smoking-attributed fractions for all causes and for lung cancer in men were 15.4% and 50.2%, respectively, and in women were 7.3% and 32.7%, respectively. Smoking annually caused an average of 3,756 (9.4%) deaths, mostly from lung cancer in men (47.4%) and women (66.9%). Women who started smoking before 30 had a higher RR (1.79; 95% CI, 1.63-1.97) than men who did so (1.48; 95% CI, 1.41-1.56). CONCLUSION: Lung cancer was the main cause of smoking-induced deaths in both sexes. Tobacco use is a major cause of premature deaths in men aged 35 to 79 years. Young women must be urged to not start smoking because they could have greater risk of all-cause and lung cancer deaths than men do.
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No Fumadores/estadística & datos numéricos , Fumadores/estadística & datos numéricos , Fumar/mortalidad , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Causas de Muerte , China/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Vigilancia de la Población , Distribución por Sexo , Fumar/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
We aimed to predict colorectal cancer (CRC) based on the demographic features and clinical correlates of personal symptoms and signs from Tianjin community-based CRC screening data.A total of 891,199 residents who were aged 60 to 74 and were screened in 2012 were enrolled. The Lasso logistic regression model was used to identify the predictors for CRC. Predictive validity was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Bootstrapping method was also performed to validate this prediction model.CRC was best predicted by a model that included age, sex, education level, occupations, diarrhea, constipation, colon mucosa and bleeding, gallbladder disease, a stressful life event, family history of CRC, and a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT). The area under curve (AUC) for the questionnaire with a FIT was 84% (95% CI: 82%-86%), followed by 76% (95% CI: 74%-79%) for a FIT alone, and 73% (95% CI: 71%-76%) for the questionnaire alone. With 500 bootstrap replications, the estimated optimism (<0.005) shows good discrimination in validation of prediction model.A risk prediction model for CRC based on a series of symptoms and signs related to enteric diseases in combination with a FIT was developed from first round of screening. The results of the current study are useful for increasing the awareness of high-risk subjects and for individual-risk-guided invitations or strategies to achieve mass screening for CRC.
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Neoplasias Colorrectales/diagnóstico , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/métodos , Tamizaje Masivo/métodos , Anciano , Área Bajo la Curva , China , Heces/química , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Curva ROC , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To quantitatively explore the effect of air pollution on coronary heart disease mortality in Tianjin. METHODS: Mortality data in 2001 - 2009 were from Tianjin mortality surveillance system operated by the Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention while data related to meteorology and air pollution were from the Tianjin Meteorological Bureau and Tianjin Environmental Monitoring Station, respectively. Generalized Additive Model (GAM) extended Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between air pollution and mortality in Tianjin, under the controlling of time trends, weather, the day of week and population etc. RESULTS: The crude coronary heart disease mortality in Tianjin increased from year 2001 to 2009, from 105.12/100 000 to 167.03/100 000. The standardized mortality rate of 96.07/100 000 to 105.11/100 000. Air pollutants was more strongly associated with coronary heart disease mortality. By single GAM analysis, a 10 µg/m(3) increase in SO2, PM10 and NO2, which accounted for 1.25% (95%CI: 0.75% - 1.75%), 0.65% (95%CI: 0.51% - 0.79%) and 1.04% (95%CI: 0.52% - 1.55%) increased in daily mortality. By multiple GAM analysis, a 10 µg/m(3) increase in SO2 and PM10 which accounted for 0.86% (95%CI: 0.60% - 1.12%) and 0.40% (95%CI: 0.06% - 0.75%) increased the daily mortality. NO2 was not significantly associated with coronary heart disease mortality rates, but factors as low temperature, low wind speed and population size were (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: from this study showed that air pollution was a risk factor for coronary heart disease mortality in Tianjin.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Enfermedad Coronaria/mortalidad , Material Particulado/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , China/epidemiología , Enfermedad Coronaria/epidemiología , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Humanos , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/análisis , Factores de Riesgo , Dióxido de Azufre/análisis , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke mortality in Tianjin, China, and to provide basis for stroke control and prevention. METHODS: Total data of mortality surveillance were collected by Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Meteorological data and atmospheric pollution data were from Tianjin Meteorological Bureau and Tianjin Environmental Monitoring Center, respectively. Generalized additive Poisson regression model was used in time-series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and stroke mortality in Tianjin. Single-pollutant analysis and multi-pollutant analysis were performed after adjustment for confounding factors such as meteorological factors, long-term trend of death, "days of the week" effect and population. RESULTS: The crude death rates of stroke in Tianjin were from 136.67 in 2001 to 160.01/100000 in 2009, with an escalating trend (P = 0.000), while the standardized mortality ratios of stroke in Tianjin were from 138.36 to 99.14/100000, with a declining trend (P = 0.000). An increase of 10 µg/m³ in daily average concentrations of atmospheric SO2, NO2 and PM10 led to 1.0105 (95%CI: 1.0060 â¼ 1.0153), 1.0197 (95%CI: 1.0149 â¼ 1.0246) and 1.0064 (95%CI: 1.0052 â¼ 1.0077), respectively, in relative risks of stroke mortality. SO2 effect peaked after 1-day exposure, while NO2 and PM10 effects did within 1 day. CONCLUSION: Air pollution in Tianjin may increase the risk of stroke mortality in the population and induce acute onset of stroke. It is necessary to carry out air pollution control and allocate health resources rationally to reduce the hazard of stroke mortality.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Accidente Cerebrovascular/mortalidad , China/epidemiología , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Material Particulado/análisis , Distribución de Poisson , Accidente Cerebrovascular/epidemiología , Tasa de Supervivencia , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: To develop a model for forecasting the mortality of stroke in Tianjin, China. The time series of stroke mortality from 1999 Jan. to 2006 Dec. in Tianjin city were subjected. Circle distribution analysis was used to verify the trend of time concentration. Multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) s], based on model identification, estimation and verification of parameter, and analysis of the fitting of model, was established. Most of the deaths from stroke occurred in January and had a cycle of 12 months. An ARIMA model (0, 1, 0) x (0, 1, 1)12 was established (1--B) (1-- B12) lnx(i) = 0.001 + (1--0.537 B12)epsilon(t). CONCLUSION: ARIMA & Circle Distribution analysis is an important tool for stroke mortality analysis. Potentially it has a high practical value on the surveillance, forecasting and prevention of stroke mortality.
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Modelos Estadísticos , Accidente Cerebrovascular/mortalidad , Causas de Muerte , China/epidemiología , Humanos , Distribuciones Estadísticas , Accidente Cerebrovascular/epidemiología , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
By cross breeding, the maize pepc gene in the pepc transgenic rice was successfully incorporated into the parents of two-, three-line hybrid rice, including sterile lines (Peiai64S, 2302S, 2304S, 2306S and Shuangjiu A) and restorer lines (5129, 02428 and Wanjing97) to breed the high-photosynthetic efficiency parents of hybrid rice and utilize heterosis between C4 and C4/C3 rice. Some lines of pepc transgenic rice (LPTR) have been developed. The study on the generations of LPTR suggests the following: (1) The segregation observed in F2 and BC1 progenies demonstrated that pepc transgene inherited as a single dominant gene in the progenies of LPTR. (2) The maize pepc gene is actively expressed at high level in LPTR, and changes of pepc gene expression in the progenies of LPTR may be related to position effect, difference of gene copy number and environmental factors. (3) Through the selection method of soaking seeds into hygromycin solution to germinate, tracing the pepc gene by PCR analysis, evaluating the performance of the rice plants in the field and examining PEPC activities, the segregation of the pepc transgene in LPTR was controlled effectively. Based on the above strategy three pepc transgene lines, H1596, H1597 and Y1470, have been selected. The result suggests that it is possible to breed practical, stable and high-expression pepc transgenic rice by conventional crossing.