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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although the evidence is uncertain, existing estimates for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) indicate a high burden. We estimated HCV seroprevalence and viraemic prevalence among the general population in SSA. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, APA PsycINFO, and World Health Organization Africa Index Medicus for community-based studies. Study quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool, and heterogeneity using the index of heterogeneity (I2). Two approaches were deployed. First, we used random-effects meta-analysis to pool prevalence. Second, to derive representative estimates, we weighted each country's HCV seroprevalence using 2021 United Nations country population sizes. RESULTS: We synthesized 130 studies. Overall, SSA HCV seroprevalence from the random-effects model was 4.17% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.71-4.66, I2 = 99.30%). There were no differences between males (4.31%) and females (4.03%). Seroprevalence was 2.25%, 3.31%, and 16.23% for ages ≤20, 21-64, and ≥65 years, respectively, and was higher in rural (6.63%) versus urban (2.93%). There was indication of decrement overtime from 5.74% to 4.35% to 3.03% in the years 1984-2000, 2001-2014, and 2015-2023, respectively. The weighted overall SSA HCV seroprevalence was estimated to be 2.30% (95% CI: 1.59-3.00) with regional variation: Africa-Southern (.79%), Africa-Central (1.47%), Africa-Eastern (2.71%), and Africa-Western (2.88%). HCV viremia among HCV seropositives was 54.77% (95% CI: 47.80-61.66). CONCLUSIONS: HCV seroprevalence in SSA remains high. Populations aged ≥65 years, rural communities, Africa-Western, and some countries in Africa-Central and Africa-Eastern appear disproportionately affected. These results underline the need for governmental commitment to achieve the 2030 global HCV elimination targets.

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Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard-mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries.

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BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) disproportionately affects among people who inject drugs (PWID) globally. Despite carrying a high HCV burden, little is known about transmission dynamics in low-and-middle income countries. METHODS: We recruited PWID from Nairobi and Coastal cities of Mombasa, Kilifi and Malindi in Kenya at needle and syringe programs. Next-generation sequencing data from HCV hypervariable region 1 were analyzed using Global Hepatitis Outbreak and Surveillance Technology (GHOST) to identify transmission clusters. RESULTS: HCV strains belonged to genotype 1a (n=64, 46.0%), 4a (n=72, 51.8%), and were mixed HCV/1a/4a (n=3, 2.2%). HCV/1a was dominant (61.2%) in Nairobi while HCV/4a was dominant in Malindi (85.7%) and Kilifi (60.9%); whereas both genotypes were evenly identified in Mombasa (45.3%, for HCV/1a and 50.9% for HCV/4a). GHOST identified 11 transmission clusters involving 90 cases. Strains in the two largest clusters (n=38 predominantly HCV/4a, and n=32 HCV/1a) were sampled from all four cities. CONCLUSION: Transmission clusters involving 64.7% of cases indicate an effective sampling of major HCV strains circulating among PWID. Large clusters involving 77.8% of strains from Nairobi and Coast suggest successful introduction of two ancestral HCV/1a and HCV/4a strains to PWID, with widely spread progeny. Disruption of the country-wide transmission network is essential for HCV elimination.

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Pakistan harbours a large burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We utilised repeat sero-surveys to assess progress achieved towards hepatitis elimination in Pakistan. Multilevel logistic regression evaluated the change in HBV infection (HBV surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive) prevalence and HCV exposure (HCV antibody (HCV-Ab)-positive) prevalence between two sero-surveys from 2007 and 2019 for Sindh province and associated risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were estimated and population-attributable fractions (PAF) for modifiable risk factors for HCV exposure. The 2007 and 2019 surveys included 8855 and 6672 individuals. HBsAg prevalence decreased from 2.6% (95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 2.2-2.9) in 2007 to 1.1% (95% CI: 0.8-1.3) in 2019, while HCV-Ab prevalence increased from 5.1% (95% CI: 4.6%-5.5%) to 6.2% (95% CI: 5.6%-6.8%). The age and gender-adjusted HBsAg prevalence decreased by 80% (aOR = 0.2, 95% CI: 0.1-0.4) among children and 60% (aOR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.6) among adults over 2007-2019, while HCV-Ab prevalence decreased by 60% (aOR = 0.4, 95%CI:0.2-0.7) in children and increased by 40% (aOR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7) in adults. HCV-Ab prevalence was lower in adults with secondary (aOR = 0.6, 95% CI: 0.5-0.8) and higher (aOR = 0.5, 95%CI:0.3-0.8) education compared to illiterates and higher among adults reporting blood transfusion (aOR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2-2.4), family history of hepatitis (aOR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.9-3.3), past year medical injection (aOR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.6-2.7), being tattooed (aOR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-1.9) and shaved by traditional barber (aOR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0-1.5). Modifiable risk factors accounted for 45% of HCV exposure, with medical injection(s) accounting for 38% (95%CI,25.7-48.4%). Overall HCV has increased over 2007-2019 in Sindh province, while HBV prevalence has decreased. Medical injections should be an important focus of prevention activities.

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[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003818.].

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Street-based sex workers experience considerable homelessness, drug use and police enforcement, making them vulnerable to violence from clients and other perpetrators. We used a deterministic compartmental model of street-based sex workers in London to estimate whether displacement by police and unstable housing/homelessness increases client violence. The model was parameterized and calibrated using data from a cohort study of sex workers, to the baseline percentage homeless (64%), experiencing recent client violence (72%), or recent displacement (78%), and the odds ratios of experiencing violence if homeless (1.97, 95% confidence interval 0.88-4.43) or displaced (4.79, 1.99-12.11), or of experiencing displacement if homeless (3.60, 1.59-8.17). Ending homelessness and police displacement reduces violence by 67% (95% credible interval 53-81%). The effects are non-linear; halving the rate of policing or becoming homeless reduces violence by 5.7% (3.5-10.3%) or 6.7% (3.7-10.2%), respectively. Modelled interventions have small impact with violence reducing by: 5.1% (2.1-11.4%) if the rate of becoming housed increases from 1.4 to 3.2 per person-year (Housing First initiative); 3.9% (2.4-6.9%) if the rate of policing reduces by 39% (level if recent increases had not occurred); and 10.2% (5.9-19.6%) in combination. Violence reduces by 26.5% (22.6-28.2%) if half of housed sex workers transition to indoor sex work. If homelessness decreased and policing increased as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the impact on violence is negligible, decreasing by 0.7% (8.7% decrease-4.1% increase). Increasing housing and reducing policing among street-based sex workers could substantially reduce violence, but large changes are needed.

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BACKGROUND: The 2022 global outbreak of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) spread primarily among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), with the initial cluster being identified in England in May, 2022. Understanding its epidemiological characteristics and the reasons for its downturn in July, 2022, will help to control future outbreaks. METHODS: We collated data for all diagnosed mpox cases (3621) from England from May 1, 2022, to Nov 16, 2022. Data from 75 individuals with mpox allowed estimation of the incubation period, while data from 121 case-contact pairs were used to estimate the serial interval. Six methods, including a structured dynamic compartmental transmission model, were used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0). The structured model assumed all male individuals with mpox were GBMSM, who were then stratified into subgroups for those at low risk and high risk for mpox. This best fitting model was used to estimate the reduction in transmissibility, and the effective infectious period (before isolating), that resulted in the outbreak downturn, and the effect of vaccination initiated from June 27, 2022. Bayesian methods were used for parameter estimation and model calibration. FINDINGS: Most cases occurred in men (3544 of 3621, 97·9%). The median incubation period for mpox was 6·90 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 4·08-20·21), and the serial interval was 8·82 days (5·22-25·81). R0 estimates ranged from 1·41 to 2·17. The structured transmission model estimated that 83·8% of infections (95% CrI 83·5-85·3) resulted from sexual partnerships with GBMSM individuals at high risk of mpox. The outbreak downturn probably resulted from a 44·5% reduction in the sexual partner rate among all GBMSM (24·9-55·8) and 20·0% reduction in the effective infectious period (4·1-33·9), preventing 165 896 infections (115 584-217 730). Vaccination marginally increased the number of infections prevented (166 081, 115 745-217 947), but minimised a resurgence in cases from January, 2023, and could have averted four times more infections if initiated earlier. Our findings were sensitive to assumptions regarding the vaccine's effectiveness and the GBMSM subgroup at high risk of mpox. INTERPRETATION: The mpox outbreak in England probably resulted from high sexual partner rates among some GBMSM, with reductions in partner rates reversing the outbreak, and with vaccination minimising future outbreaks. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (UK).

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BACKGROUND: Many of the largest COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States have occurred at carceral facilities. Criminal legal system (CLS)-involved individuals typically face structural barriers accessing medical care post-release. Improving COVID-19 testing and education for CLS-involved individuals could improve health outcomes for this vulnerable population and the communities to which they return. Community-based organizations (CBO) and community health workers (CHWs) fill care gaps by connecting CLS-involved individuals with essential re-entry services. The MOSAIC study will: 1) test an onsite CHW-led SARS-CoV-2 testing and education intervention in a reentry CBO and 2) model the cost-effectiveness of this intervention compared to standard care. METHODS: We will recruit 250 CLS-involved individuals who have left incarceration in the prior 90 days. Participants will be randomized to receive onsite Point-of-Care testing and education (O-PoC) or Standard of Care (SoC). Over one year, participants will complete quarterly questionnaires and biweekly short surveys through a mobile application, and be tested for SARS-CoV-2 quarterly, either at the CBO (O-PoC) or an offsite community testing site (SoC). O-PoC will also receive COVID-19 mitigation counseling and education from the CHW. Our primary outcome is the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 tests performed with results received by participants. Secondary outcomes include adherence to mitigation behaviors and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. DISCUSSION: The MOSAIC study will offer insight into cost effective strategies for SARS-CoV-2 testing and education for CLS-involved individuals. The study will also contribute to the growing literature on CHW's role in health education, supportive counseling, and building trust between patients and healthcare organizations.

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BACKGROUND: Syringe vending machines (SVM) can improve access to sterile injecting equipment, but they have not been widely implemented or evaluated. We evaluate the cost of SVM installed between July 2019-December 2020 in Tbilisi, Georgia. METHODS: The SVM were stocked with several kit types, including injecting equipment for opioid or stimulant users, naloxone, male and female condoms, and pregnancy tests. We gathered financial data from the project to estimate fixed (staff time, start-up costs, equipment, running costs, and consumables) and variable (harm reduction kits) costs. We calculated the full cost of the SVM intervention, cost per user, cost per additional syringe accessed by SVM users, and cost per kit distributed (2020 Euros). RESULTS: SVM access cards were issued to 1132 users, and 29,238 kits were distributed through SVM, total cost €204,358. Staff costs were 51% of total, consumable costs 28%, equipment 10%, and start up, recurrent costs, and overheads 5% or less each. Opioid and stimulant kits were most accessed (35% and 32% of total). Cost per user was €66/year, and cost per transaction €7, of which €5 fixed costs and €2 variable. If monthly transactions increased from the average of 1622/month to highest monthly usage (4714), fixed costs per transaction would decrease to < €1. It cost €0.55 per additional syringe accessed/user/month. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for governments about the cost of SVM, a novel harm reduction intervention. This is particularly relevant where Global Fund is withdrawing and harm reduction services need to be incorporated into national budgets.

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BackgroundThe burden of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) varies across the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA).AimWe aimed to update the 2017 HBV prevalence estimates in EU/EEA countries and the United Kingdom for 2018 to 2021.MethodsWe undertook a systematic review, adding to HBV prevalence estimates from an existing (2005-2017) database. Databases were searched for original English-language research articles including HBV surface antigen prevalence estimates among the general population, pregnant women, first-time blood donors (FTB), men who have sex with men (MSM), migrants and people in prison. Country experts contributed grey literature data. Risk of bias was assessed using a quality assessment framework.FindingsThe update provided 147 new prevalence estimates across the region (updated total n = 579). Median HBV prevalence in the general population was 0.5% and the highest was 3.8% (Greece). Among FTB, the highest prevalence was 0.8% (Lithuania). Estimates among pregnant women were highest in Romania and Italy (5.1%). Among migrants, the highest estimate was 31.7% (Spain). Relative to 2017 estimates, median prevalence among pregnant women decreased by 0.5% (to 0.3%) and increased by 0.9% (to 5.8%) among migrants. Among MSM, the highest estimate was 3.4% (Croatia). Prevalence among people in prison was highest in Greece (8.3%) and the median prevalence increased by 0.6% (to 2.1%).ConclusionsThe HBV prevalence is low in the general population and confined to risk populations in most European countries with some exceptions. Screening and treatment should be targeted to people in prison and migrants.

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BackgroundBetween May 2015 and February 2022, 77,168 hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected people in Georgia have been treated through an HCV elimination programme. To project the programme's long-term impacts, an HCV infection model was initially developed, based on data from surveys among people who inject drugs and a national serosurvey in 2015.AimAccounting for follow-up surveys in 2021, we validate and update projections of HCV infection prevalence and incidence.MethodWe assessed the initial model projections' accuracy for overall prevalence, by age, sex, and among people who ever injected drugs, compared with 2021 serosurvey data. We used 2021 results to weight model fits and to recalculate the national programme's impact leading up to March 2022 on HCV infection incidence rates. Cases and deaths averted were estimated. The impact of reduced treatment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic was assessed.ResultsThe original model overpredicted adult (≥ 18 years old) chronic HCV infection prevalence for 2021 (2.7%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.9-3.5%) compared with a 2021 serosurvey (1.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.4%). Weighted model projections estimated a 60% decrease in HCV infection incidence by March 2022, with an absolute incidence of 66 (95% CrI: 34-131) per 100,000 person-years (overall population). Between May 2015 and March 2022, 9,186 (95% CrI: 5,396-16,720) infections and 842 (95% CrI: 489-1,324) deaths were averted. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in 13,344 (95% CrI: 13,236-13,437) fewer treatments and 438 (95% CrI: 223-744) fewer averted infections by March 2022.ConclusionResults support the programme's high effectiveness. At current treatment rate (406/month), 90% reductions in prevalence and incidence in Georgia are achievable by 2030.

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BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) epidemiology in Europe differs by region and population risk group, and data are often incomplete. We estimated chronic HBV prevalence as measured by surface antigen (HBsAg) among general and key population groups for each country in the European Union, European Economic Area and the United Kingdom (EU/EEA/UK), including where data are currently unavailable. METHODS: We combined data from a 2018 systematic review (updated in 2021), data gathered directly by the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) from EU/EEA countries and the UK and further country-level data. We included data on adults from the general population, pregnant women, first time blood donors (FTBD), men who have sex with men (MSM), prisoners, people who inject drugs (PWID), and migrants from 2001 to 2021, with three exceptions made for pre-2001 estimates. Finite Mixture Models (FMM) and Beta regression were used to predict country and population group HBsAg prevalence. A separate multiplier method was used to estimate HBsAg prevalence among the migrant populations within each country, due to biases in the data available. RESULTS: There were 595 included studies from 31 countries (N = 41,955,969 people): 66 were among the general population (mean prevalence ([Formula: see text]) 1.3% [range: 0.0-7.6%]), 52 among pregnant women ([Formula: see text]1.1% [0.1-5.3%]), 315 among FTBD ([Formula: see text]0.3% [0.0-6.2%]), 20 among MSM ([Formula: see text]1.7% [0.0-11.2%]), 34 among PWID ([Formula: see text]3.9% [0.0-16.9%]), 24 among prisoners ([Formula: see text]2.9% [0.0-10.7%]), and 84 among migrants ([Formula: see text]7.0% [0.2-37.3%]). The FMM grouped countries into 3 classes. We estimated HBsAg prevalence among the general population to be < 1% in 24/31 countries, although it was higher in 7 Eastern/Southern European countries. HBsAg prevalence among each population group was higher in most Eastern/Southern European than Western/Northern European countries, whilst prevalence among PWID and prisoners was estimated at > 1% for most countries. Portugal had the highest estimated prevalence of HBsAg among migrants (5.0%), with the other highest prevalences mostly seen in Southern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated HBV prevalence for each population group within each EU/EAA country and the UK, with general population HBV prevalence to be < 1% in most countries. Further evidence is required on the HBsAg prevalence of high-risk populations for future evidence synthesis.

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INTRODUCTION: People who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have high prevalences of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide PWID with needles/syringes, condoms, HIV/HCV testing and linkage to opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART). We estimated their impact and cost-effectiveness among PWID. METHODS: A dynamic HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID was calibrated using data from four national PWID surveys (2011-2017). The model assumed 37-49% coverage of NGOs among community PWID, with NGO contact reducing injecting risk and increasing condom use and recruitment onto OAT and ART. We estimated the historic (1997-2021) and future (2022-2030, compared to no NGO activities from 2022) impact of NGOs in terms of the proportion of HIV/HCV infections averted and changes in HIV/HCV incidence. We estimated the future impact of scaling-up NGOs to 80% coverage with/without scale-up in OAT (5-20%) and ART (64-81%). We estimated the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted of current NGO provision over 2022-2041 compared to NGO activities stopping over 2022-2026, but restarting after that till 2041. We assumed average unit costs of US$80-90 per person-year of NGO contact for PWID. RESULTS: With existing coverage levels of NGOs, the model projects that NGOs have averted 20.0% (95% credibility interval: 13.3-26.1) and 9.6% (5.1-14.1) of new HIV and HCV infections among PWID over 1997-2021, respectively, and will avert 31.8% (19.6-39.9) and 13.7% (7.5-18.1) of HIV and HCV infections over 2022-2030. With NGO scale-up, HIV and HCV incidence will decrease by 54.2% (43.3-63.8) and 30.2% (20.5-36.2) over 2022-2030, or 86.7% (82.9-89.3) and 39.8% (31.4-44.8) if OAT and ART are also scaled-up. Without NGOs, HIV and HCV incidence will increase by 51.6% (23.6-76.3) and 13.4% (4.8-21.9) over 2022-2030. Current NGO provision over 2022-2026 will avert 102,736 (77,611-137,512) DALYs when tracked until 2041 (discounted 3% annually), and cost US$912 (702-1222) per DALY averted; cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$1548/DALY averted (0.5xGDP). CONCLUSIONS: NGO activities have a crucial preventative impact among PWID in Ukraine which should be scaled-up to help achieve HIV and HCV elimination. Disruptions could have a substantial detrimental impact.

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Globally, there are approximately 58 million people with chronic hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) but only 20% have been diagnosed. HCV self-testing (HCVST) could reach those who have never been tested and increase uptake of HCV testing services. We compared cost per HCV viraemic diagnosis or cure for HCVST versus facility-based HCV testing services. We used a decision analysis model with a one-year time horizon to examine the key drivers of economic cost per diagnosis or cure following the introduction of HCVST in China (men who have sex with men), Georgia (men 40-49 years), Viet Nam (people who inject drugs, PWID), and Kenya (PWID). HCV antibody (HCVAb) prevalence ranged from 1%-60% across settings. Model parameters in each setting were informed by HCV testing and treatment programmes, HIV self-testing programmes, and expert opinion. In the base case, we assume a reactive HCVST is followed by a facility-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and then nucleic acid testing (NAT). We assumed oral-fluid HCVST costs of $5.63/unit ($0.87-$21.43 for facility-based RDT), 62% increase in testing following HCVST introduction, 65% linkage following HCVST, and 10% replacement of facility-based testing with HCVST based on HIV studies. Parameters were varied in sensitivity analysis. Cost per HCV viraemic diagnosis without HCVST ranged from $35 2019 US dollars (Viet Nam) to $361 (Kenya). With HCVST, diagnosis increased resulting in incremental cost per diagnosis of $104 in Viet Nam, $163 in Georgia, $587 in Kenya, and $2,647 in China. Differences were driven by HCVAb prevalence. Switching to blood-based HCVST ($2.25/test), increasing uptake of HCVST and linkage to facility-based care and NAT testing, or proceeding directly to NAT testing following HCVST, reduced the cost per diagnosis. The baseline incremental cost per cure was lowest in Georgia ($1,418), similar in Viet Nam ($2,033), and Kenya ($2,566), and highest in China ($4,956). HCVST increased the number of people tested, diagnosed, and cured, but at higher cost. Introducing HCVST is more cost-effective in populations with high prevalence.

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BACKGROUND: Measuring the incidence of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) is key to track progress towards elimination. We aimed to summarise global data on HIV and primary HCV incidence among PWID and associations with age and sex or gender. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we updated an existing database of HIV and HCV incidence studies among PWID by searching MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO, capturing studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2022, with no language or study design restrictions. We contacted authors of identified studies for unpublished or updated data. We included studies that estimated incidence by longitudinally re-testing people at risk of infection or by using assays for recent infection. We pooled incidence and relative risk (RR; young [generally defined as ≤25 years] vs older PWID; women vs men) estimates using random-effects meta-analysis and assessed risk of bias with a modified Newcastle-Ottawa scale. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020220884. FINDINGS: Our updated search identified 9493 publications, of which 211 were eligible for full-text review. An additional 377 full-text records from our existing database and five records identified through cross-referencing were assessed. Including 28 unpublished records, 125 records met the inclusion criteria. We identified 64 estimates of HIV incidence (30 from high-income countries [HICs] and 34 from low-income or middle-income countries [LMICs]) and 66 estimates of HCV incidence (52 from HICs and 14 from LMICs). 41 (64%) of 64 HIV and 42 (64%) of 66 HCV estimates were from single cities rather than being multi-city or nationwide. Estimates were measured over 1987-2021 for HIV and 1992-2021 for HCV. Pooled HIV incidence was 1·7 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1·3-2·3; I2=98·4%) and pooled HCV incidence was 12·1 per 100 person-years (10·0-14·6; I2=97·2%). Young PWID had a greater risk of HIV (RR 1·5, 95% CI 1·2-1·8; I2=66·9%) and HCV (1·5, 1·3-1·8; I2=70·6%) acquisition than older PWID. Women had a greater risk of HIV (RR 1·4, 95% CI 1·1-1·6; I2=55·3%) and HCV (1·2, 1·1-1·3; I2=43·3%) acquisition than men. For both HIV and HCV, the median risk-of-bias score was 6 (IQR 6-7), indicating moderate risk. INTERPRETATION: Although sparse, available HIV and HCV incidence estimates offer insights into global levels of HIV and HCV transmission among PWID. Intensified efforts are needed to keep track of the HIV and HCV epidemics among PWID and to expand access to age-appropriate and gender-appropriate prevention services that serve young PWID and women who inject drugs. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Canadian Network on Hepatitis C, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and WHO.

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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Directly observed therapy (DOT) maximizes adherence and minimizes treatment gaps. Peer case managers (PCM) have also shown promise as a component of integrated HCV treatment strategies. DOT and PCM-support have been underexplored, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The objective of this study was to evaluate predictors of sustained virologic response (SVR) among people who inject drugs (PWID) attending medication-assisted treatment (MAT) and needle and syringe programs (NSP) sites in Kenya. METHODS: We recruited PWID accessing MAT and NSP in Nairobi and Coastal Kenya. PWID were treated with ledipasvir/sofosbuvir using DOT supported by PCMs. We used bivariate and multivariate logistic regression to examine the impact of sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical factors on SVR. RESULTS: Among 92 PWID who initiated HCV treatment, 79 (86%) were male with mean age of 36.3 years (SD=±6.5); 38 (41%) were HIV-positive, and 87 (95%) reported injecting drugs in the last 30 days. Just over half of participants were genotype 1a (55%), followed by genotype 4a (41%) and mixed 1a/4a (3%). Most participants, 85 (92%) completed treatment and 79 (86%) achieved SVR. While sociodemographic and behavioral factors including recent injection drug use were not significantly associated with achieving SVR, being fully adherent (p=0.042), number of doses taken (p=0.008) and treatment completion (p= 0.001) were associated with higher odds of achieving SVR. CONCLUSIONS: DOT with PCM-support was an effective model for HCV treatment among PWID in this LMIC setting. Adherence was the most important driver of SVR suggesting DOT and PCM support can overcome other factors that might limit adherence. Further research is necessary to ascertain the effectiveness of other models of HCV care for PWID in LMICs given NSP and MAT access is variable, and DOT may not be sustainable with limited resources.

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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In 2015, the country of Georgia launched an elimination program aiming to reduce the prevalence of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 90% from 5.4% prevalence (~150 000 people). During the first 2.5 years of the program, 770 832 people were screened, 48 575 were diagnosed with active HCV infection, and 41 483 patients were treated with direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-based regimens, with a >95% cure rate. METHODS: We modelled the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of HCV screening, diagnosis and treatment between April 2015 and November 2017 compared to no treatment, in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained in 2017 US dollars, with a 3% discount rate over 25 years. We compared the ICER to willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of US$4357 (GDP) and US$871 (opportunity cost) per QALY gained. RESULTS: The average cost of screening, HCV viremia testing, and treatment per patient treated was $386 to the provider, $225 to the patient and $1042 for generic DAAs. At 3% discount, 0.57 QALYs were gained per patient treated. The ICER from the perspective of the provider including generic DAAs was $2285 per QALY gained, which is cost-effective at the $4357 WTP threshold, while if patient costs are included, it is just above the threshold at $4398/QALY. All other scenarios examined in sensitivity analyses remain cost-effective except for assuming a shorter time horizon to the end of 2025 or including the list price DAA cost. Reducing or excluding DAA costs reduced the ICER below the opportunity-cost WTP threshold. CONCLUSIONS: The Georgian HCV elimination program provides valuable evidence that national programs for scaling up HCV screening and treatment for achieving HCV elimination can be cost-effective.

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There is extensive qualitative evidence of violence and enforcement impacting sex workers who are ethnically or racially minoritized, and gender or sexual minority sex workers, but there is little quantitative evidence. Baseline and follow-up data were collected among 288 sex workers of diverse genders (cis/transgender women and men and non-binary people) in London (2018-2019). Interviewer-administered and self-completed questionnaires included reports of rape, emotional violence, and (un)lawful police encounters. We used generalized estimating equation models (Stata vs 16.1) to measure associations between (i) ethnic/racial identity (Black, Asian, mixed or multiple vs White) and recent (6 months) or past police enforcement and (ii) ethnic/racial and sexual identity (lesbian, gay or bisexual (LGB) vs. heterosexual) with recent rape and emotional violence (there was insufficient data to examine the association with transgender/non-binary identities). Ethnically/racially minoritized sex workers (26.4%) reported more police encounters partly due to increased representation in street settings (51.4% vs 30.7% off-street, p = 0.002). After accounting for street setting, ethnically/racially minoritized sex workers had higher odds of recent arrest (adjusted odds ratio 2.8, 95% CI 1.3-5.8), past imprisonment (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.0), police extortion (aOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.4-7.8), and rape (aOR 3.6, 95% CI 1.1-11.5). LGB-identifying sex workers (55.4%) were more vulnerable to rape (aOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1-5.2) and emotional violence. Sex workers identifying as ethnically/racially minoritized (aOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0-4.5), LGB (aOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.0-4.0), or who use drugs (aOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.8) were more likely to have experienced emotional violence than white-identifying, heterosexual or those who did not use drugs. Experience of any recent police enforcement was associated with increased odds of rape (aOR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-8.4) and emotional violence (aOR 4.9, 95% CI 1.8-13.0). Findings show how police enforcement disproportionately targets ethnically/racially minoritized sex workers and contributes to increased risk of rape and emotional violence, which is elevated among sexual and ethnically/racially minoritized workers.

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OBJECTIVE: Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Ukraine have provided HIV testing, treatment, and condom distribution for MSM. HIV prevalence among MSM in Ukraine is 5.6%. We estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of MSM-targeted NGO activities in Ukraine. DESIGN: A mathematical model of HIV transmission among MSM was calibrated to data from Ukraine (2011-2018). METHODS: The model, designed before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, evaluated the impact of 2018 status quo coverage levels of 28% of MSM being NGO clients over 2016-2020 and 2021-2030 compared with no NGO activities over these time periods. Impact was measured in HIV incidence and infections averted. We compared the costs and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for the status quo and a counterfactual scenario (no NGOs 2016-2020, but with NGOs thereafter) until 2030 to estimate the mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (cost per DALY averted). RESULTS: Without NGO activity over 2016-2020, the HIV incidence in 2021 would have been 44% (95% credibility interval: 36-59%) higher than with status quo levels of NGO activity, with 25% (21-30%) more incident infections occurring over 2016-2020. Continuing with status quo NGO coverage levels will decrease HIV incidence by 41% over 2021-2030, whereas it will increase by 79% (60-120%) with no NGOs over this period and 37% (30-51%) more HIV infections will occur. Compared with if NGO activities had ceased over 2016-2020 (but continued thereafter), the status quo scenario averts 14 918 DALYs over 2016-2030 with a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$600.15 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION: MSM-targeted NGOs in Ukraine have prevented considerable HIV infections and are highly cost-effective compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of 50% of Ukraine's 2018 GDP (US$1548).

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