RESUMEN
PIP: Below replacement fertility has become the norm in 21 of Europe's 27 countries. Their average total fertility rate is 1.69. This trend has raised concerns about insufficient numbers in the economically active population and prospective personnel shortages in the military. In the Federal Republic of Germany, fertility has been below replacement for the past 17 years and its 1985 total fertility rate of 1.28 is a record low. Only a few European countries (Bulgaria, France, and Romania) have explicitly pronatalist policies. Other nations (Belgium, Finland, Luxembourg, and the German Democratic Republic) have instituted a progressive system of child allowances, increasing payments with each additional birth. Ironically, policies that seek to promote social opportunities for women, such as participation in the labor force, are likely to reduce fertility even farther. Without increased services such as reasonably priced housing, child care centers, and economic incentives to compensate women for lost opportunity costs in the labor market, policies that seek to increase fertility will not succeed. Policy options that were once available to increase fertility (for example, prohibiting abortion) are no longer socially acceptable. New policies will have to be developed through research on the determinants of fertility behavior in postindustrial societies.^ieng
Asunto(s)
Demografía , Política de Planificación Familiar , Fertilidad , Política , Dinámica Poblacional , Crecimiento Demográfico , Población , Política Pública , Cambio Social , Derechos de la Mujer , Países Desarrollados , Economía , Europa (Continente) , Factores SocioeconómicosRESUMEN
PIP: In 1950 Latin America's population of 165 million was on a par with the 166 million of North America. 2 decades of growth at nearly 3% a year pushed the total to 405 million in 1985, vs. 264 million in North America. Despite substantial fertility declines since the 1960s, continued growth is ensured by the demographic momentum built into the region's large and youthful population bases. UN medium projections put the 2025 total at 779 million, compared to 345 million in North America. This Bulletin examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II and their links to economic and social changes in the region as well as their implications for international and social relations. The post World War II population surge was accompanied by massive rural-ruban and international migration, rapid urbanization, large labor shifts out of agriculture into industry and services, increased education for both men and women, and higher labor force participation for females. The rural exodus was spurred by extreme land tenure inequalities and the urban bias of postwar industrialization. The labor-saving bias of this industrialization forced exploding city populations to turn to the informal sector for jobs. Population pressures on city services and housing as well as jobs have been further exacerbated by overconcentration in a few large cities and economic downturns of the 1980s. Recent fertility declines seem to be the result of both increased access to family planning and the economic and social pressures posed by the gap between young adults' aspirations and their ability to realize them. Population and economic pressures could induce faster fertility declines than now projected but in the short run are likely to mean more employment problems, continued rapid urban growth, and even larger international immigration flows within the hemisphere, particularly to the US.^ieng