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BACKGROUND: There are currently two million cancer survivors in the United Kingdom, and in recent years this number has grown by 3% per annum. The aim of this paper is to provide long-term projections of cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom. METHODS: National cancer registry data for England were used to estimate cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom in 2009. Using a model of prevalence as a function of incidence, survival and population demographics, projections were made to 2040. Different scenarios of future incidence and survival, and their effects on cancer prevalence, were also considered. Colorectal, lung, prostate, female breast and all cancers combined (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) were analysed separately. RESULTS: Assuming that existing trends in incidence and survival continue, the number of cancer survivors in the United Kingdom is projected to increase by approximately one million per decade from 2010 to 2040. Particularly large increases are anticipated in the oldest age groups, and in the number of long-term survivors. By 2040, almost a quarter of people aged at least 65 will be cancer survivors. CONCLUSION: Increasing cancer survival and the growing/ageing population of the United Kingdom mean that the population of survivors is likely to grow substantially in the coming decades, as are the related demands upon the health service. Plans must, therefore, be laid to ensure that the varied needs of cancer survivors can be met in the future.

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BACKGROUND: There are around 2 million cancer survivors in the UK. This study describes the inpatient and day case hospital activity among the population of cancer survivors in England. This is one measure of the burden of cancer on the individual and the health service. METHODS: The national cancer registry data set for England (1990-2006) is linked to the NHS Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database. Cohorts of survivors were defined as those people recorded in the cancer registry data with a diagnosis of breast, colorectal, lung or prostate cancer before 2007. The person-time of prevalence in 2006 for each cohort of survivors was calculated according to the cancer type, sex, age and time since diagnosis. The corresponding HES episodes of care in 2006 were used to calculate the person-time of admitted hospital care for each cohort of survivors. The average proportion of time spent in hospital by survivors in each cohort was calculated as the summed person-time of hospital activity divided by the summed person-time of prevalence. The analysis was conducted separately for cancer-related episodes and non-cancer-related episodes. RESULTS: Lung cancer survivors had the highest intensity of cancer-related hospital activity. For all cancers, cancer-related hospital activity was highest in the first year following diagnosis. Breast and prostate cancer survivors had peaks of cancer-related hospital activity in the relatively young and relatively old age groups. The proportion of time spent in hospital for non-cancer-related care was much lower than that for cancer-related care and increased gradually with age but was generally constant regardless of time since diagnosis. CONCLUSION: The person-time approach used in this study is more revealing than a simple enumeration of cancer survivors and hospital admissions. Hospital activity among cancer survivors is highest soon after diagnosis. The effect of age on the amount of hospital activity is different for each type of cancer.

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BACKGROUND: Identifying and addressing the requirements of cancer survivors is currently a high priority for the NHS, yet little is known about the population of cancer survivors in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Data from cancer registries in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales were analysed to provide limited-duration prevalence estimates for 2004. Log-linear regression models were used to extend these to complete prevalence estimates. Trends in prevalence from 2000 to 2004 were used to project complete prevalence estimates forward from 2004 to 2008. RESULTS: We estimated that in total, there were 2 million cancer survivors in the United Kingdom at the end of 2008, approximately 3% of the population overall and 1 in 8 of those aged 65 years and more. Prostate and female breast cancers were the most prevalent. The number of cancer survivors is increasing by approximately 3% each year. Estimates are also provided by time since diagnosis. CONCLUSION: These estimates are the most up-to-date available, and as such will be useful for statutory and voluntary sector organisations that are responsible for planning and providing treatment and support to cancer survivors in the United Kingdom.

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Pulmonary metastasectomy is undertaken for a range of cancers. The questions we raise here are specifically related to colorectal cancer, the commonest tumour for which pulmonary metastasectomy is undertaken. The primary objective of metastasectomy is to increase survival. There are no randomised trials in support of this practice nor are there any other forms of controlled studies. We present a critical look at the assumption of efficacy for this surgery and propose that a trial is needed and suggest a trial design.

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The development, application and interpretation of risk models is becoming an important activity in a number of surgical disciplines. In this paper, we discuss the many issues that arise when constructing a risk model, with particular reference to the development of a risk model for thoracic surgery. First, we briefly revisit the origins of risk modelling in cardiothoracic surgery.

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Surgical metastasectomy is increasing both in the numbers of operations performed and the extensiveness of surgery that is being undertaken. Radiologists play a central role in this work. It is they who first detect metastases on cancer staging scans and it is they who detect recurrence of cancer on surveillance scans performed in the course of follow-up. Radiologists then play a key role in characterising and diagnosing any lung nodules thus discovered. For colorectal and lung cancer the clinical teams are typically quite separate, but radiologists have a role in both multidisciplinary team meetings. Thus it may well be that the radiologist is party to discussions about the same patient and the same imaging information in quite separate multidisciplinary team meetings and needs to understand the imaging needs and clinical objectives of both. As surgery is becoming more extensive, the inescapable harm done as a consequence of lung resection is increasing. Good quality evidence for benefit is lacking. The purpose of this article is to provide an update on the practice of metastasectomy, the selection of patients, the objectives of surgery, and uncertainties about its effectiveness.

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Patient safety will benefit from an approach to human error that examines systemic causes, rather than blames individuals. This study describes a direct observation methodology, based on a threat and error model, prospectively to identify types and sources of systems failures in paediatric cardiac surgery. Of substantive interest were the range, frequency and types of failures that could be identified and whether minor failures could accumulate to form more serious events, as has been the case in other industries. Check lists, notes and video recordings were employed to observe 24 successful operations. A total of 366 failures were recorded. Coordination and communication problems, equipment problems, a relaxed safety culture, patient-related problems and perfusion-related problems were most frequent, with a smaller number of skill, knowledge and decision-making failures. Longer and more risky operations were likely to generate a greater number of minor failures than shorter and lower risk operations, and in seven higher-risk cases frequently occurring minor failures accumulated to threaten the safety of the patient. Non-technical errors were more prevalent than technical errors and task threats were the most prevalent systemic source of error. Adverse events in surgery are likely to be associated with a number of recurring and prospectively identifiable errors. These may be co-incident and cumulative human errors predisposed by threats embedded in the system, rather than due to individual incompetence or negligence. Prospectively identifying and reducing these recurrent failures would lead to improved surgical standards and enhanced patient safety.

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OBJECTIVES: To compare the effects of combined hydrotherapy and land-based physiotherapy (combined) with land-based physiotherapy only (land) on cost, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and outcome of disease in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Also to determine the cost-effectiveness of combined hydrotherapy and land-based physiotherapy in JIA. DESIGN: A multicentre randomised controlled, partially blinded trial was designed with 100 patients in a control arm receiving land-based physiotherapy only (land group) and 100 patients in an intervention arm receiving a combination of hydrotherapy and land-based physiotherapy (combined group). SETTING: Three tertiary centres in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 4-19 years diagnosed more than 3 months with idiopathic arthritides, onset before their 16th birthday, stable on medication with at least one active joint. INTERVENTIONS: Patients in the combined and land groups received 16 1-hour treatment sessions over 2 weeks followed by local physiotherapy attendances for 2 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Disease improvement defined as a decrease of > or =30% in any three of six core set variables without there being a 30% increase in more than one of the remaining three variables was used as the primary outcome measure and assessed at 2 months following completion of intervention. Health services resource use (in- and outpatient care, GP visits, drugs, interventions, and investigations) and productivity costs (parents' time away from paid work) were collected at 6 months follow-up. HRQoL was measured at baseline and 2 and 6 months following intervention using the EQ-5D, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Secondary outcome measures at 2 and 6 months included cardiovascular fitness, pain, isometric muscle strength and patient satisfaction. RESULTS: Seventy-eight patients were recruited into the trial and received treatment. Two months after intervention 47% patients in the combined group and 61% patients in the land group had improved disease with 11 and 5% with worsened disease, respectively. The analysis showed no significant differences in mean costs and QALYs between the two groups. The combined group had slightly lower mean costs (-6.91 pounds Sterling) and lower mean QALYs (-0.0478, 95% confidence interval -0.11294 to 0.0163 based on 1000 bootstrap replications). All secondary measures demonstrated a mean improvement in both groups, with the combined group showing greater improvements in physical aspects of HRQoL and cardiovascular fitness. CONCLUSIONS: JIA is a disease in which a cure is not available. This research demonstrates a beneficial effect from both combined hydrotherapy and land-based physiotherapy treatment and land-based physiotherapy treatment alone in JIA without any exacerbation of disease, indicating that treatments are safe. The caveat to the results of the cost-effectiveness and clinical efficacy analysis is that the restricted sample size could have prevented a true difference being detected between the groups. Nevertheless, there appears to be no evidence to justify the costs of building pools or initiating new services specifically for use in this disease. However, this conclusion may not apply to patients with unremitting active disease who could not be entered into the trial because of specified exclusion criteria. For this group, hydrotherapy or combined treatment may still be the only physiotherapy option. Further research is suggested into: the investigation and development of appropriate and sensitive outcome measures for use in future hydrotherapy and physiotherapy trials of JIA; preliminary studies of methodologies in complex interventions such as physiotherapy and hydrotherapy to improve recruitment and ensure protocol is acceptable to patients and carers; hydrotherapy in the most common paediatric user group, children with neurological dysfunction, ensuring appropriate outcome measures are available and methodologies previously tried; patient satisfaction and compliance in land-based physiotherapy and hydrotherapy and European studies of hydrotherapy in rare disorders such as JIA.

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OBJECTIVE: Practice varies as to whether or not suction is applied to under-water seal drains following lung surgery. We tested the null hypothesis that there is no difference with respect to air leak duration. METHODS: Patients undergoing thoracotomy or video assisted thoracoscopic surgery for lobectomy or wedge resection had either low-pressure suction or no suction applied to their underwater seal bottles postoperatively. Patients were allocated using minimization, a method of unbiased allocation ensuring balance between the arms of a trial with respect to known or suspected confounding factors. The trial was powered for duration of air leak. If an air leak persisted on the 7th post-operative day, the surgeon determined further management. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of air leak duration and a log rank test were performed on an intention-to-treat basis, with observations censored at 144h (6 complete days). RESULTS: Of the 254 patients that entered the trial, data were available for analysis for 239 (123 no-suction and 116 suction). There was no significant difference in the cumulative persistence of air leaks between the two groups (P=0.62) and inspection of the Kaplan-Meier curves suggests that any difference is negligible. CONCLUSIONS: Applying suction to the underwater seal drains following lung surgery makes no difference in terms of air leak duration. In the light of this finding we have adopted a uniform policy of no suction being applied to the underwater seal, from the time of surgery, unless a specific clinical judgment is made to use it. The anticipated gains are that this will reduce work and cost and aid mobilization.

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STUDY OBJECTIVE: European Union legislation requires large industrial and civil development projects to undergo environmental impact assessment. The study objective was to identify environmental health risk estimates for these developments from the epidemiological literature and to develop, and apply these within, a mathematical health impact assessment model. DESIGN AND RESULTS: In the UK, good practice guidelines have set out environmental issues to be considered in development projects, but little attention is given to direct health effects. Broad quantifiable risks were identified for four-air, chemicals, noise, and road traffic-of 14 standard environmental effects. A mathematical model was constructed that is based on people moving between different health states over their lifetime. Age related hazard functions are applied to cause specific measures of mortality and morbidity. A hypothetical example for a development creating air and chemical pollutants is given. CONCLUSIONS: A mathematical model applying epidemiological risks to an exposed population can provide quantification of environmental health effects. The approach may in future find application during project development, and by public health regulatory authorities for environmental health impact assessment.

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We determined to survey the general practice population regarding their attitudes to and knowledge of osteoporosis as a baseline prior to publication of national guidelines for the management of osteoporosis. All 2515 general practitioners registered in the 10 Health Authorities of the North Thames region, London, UK were surveyed by a postal questionnaire. Responses relating to epidemiology, public health and education on osteoporosis were analyzed. The overall response was 1153 (46%). General practitioners who responded were younger, predominantly female and in group practice. There is considerable awareness of the importance of preventing osteoporosis. General practitioners are active in identifying groups at risk, particularly those who are aged 40 years and older. A prevention strategy for osteoporosis is viewed as effective. However, two thirds of general practitioners remain unconvinced about the efficacy of drug therapy. Education on osteoporosis is considered inadequate. General practitioners would welcome further information on management issues and access to osteoporosis services. In conclusion, educational initiatives will be important both at undergraduate and postgraduate levels to increase awareness and knowledge of osteoporosis. General practitioners are aware of the public health impact of this condition and express a preference for educational material of direct relevance to the care of their patients. Therefore better cooperation between primary and secondary care should lead to ways of breaking down barriers to change in clinical practice and promoting fully integrated care of patients with osteoporosis.

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Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1 became considerably more sensitive to the action of ampicillin when grown in the presence of certain phospholipids. Only phospholipids capable of forming lipid bilayers or micelles proved to be capable of enhancing ampicillin activity. Of the phospholipids tested, 1-palmitoyl-2-hydroxy-sn-glycero-3-phosphate, also called monopalmitoylphosphatidic acid (MPPA), was the best enhancer. In the absence of MPPA, the MIC and MBC of ampicillin for P. aeruginosa PAO1 were 1 and 2 g/L, respectively. In the presence of MPPA, the MIC and MBC were 20 and 40 mg/L, respectively. MPPA was shown to enhance ampicillin activity by binding both Ca(2+) and Mg(2+), suggesting that the mechanism of enhancement is similar to that previously reported for Ca(2+) and Mg(2+) chelators. Surprisingly, MPPA by itself slowed the growth of four mucoid multiply antibiotic-resistant strains of P. aeruginosa recently isolated from the sputum of cystic fibrosis patients, and enhanced their sensitivity to piperacillin. It also increased the sensitivity of two ceftazidime-resistant P. aeruginosa cystic fibrosis strains to ceftazidime.

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A minitransposon mutant of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium SR-11, SR-11 Fad(-), is unable to utilize gluconeogenic substrates as carbon sources and is avirulent and immunogenic when administered perorally to BALB/c mice (M. J. Utley et al., FEMS Microbiol. Lett., 163:129-134, 1998). Here, evidence is presented that the mutation in SR-11 Fad(-) that renders the strain avirulent is in the cra gene, which encodes the Cra protein, a regulator of central carbon metabolism.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine how Larsen scores from digitized X-rays compare to those from film originals. METHODS: A hundred sets of radiographs of patients recruited with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) were assessed using the Larsen scoring system. Digitized copies of these sets were then viewed on a computer screen and scored according to Larsen in a random order. The quality of the digitized image was also recorded. For each set of X-rays, the signed difference between the score from film and the score from the digitized images was calculated. RESULTS: A total of 95% of the digitized X-ray sets were scored successfully; 5% were not scored due to the images being unreadable. The mean difference between the two sets of scores was -1.2 (95% CI [-2.06, -0.37]). There was no trend in the difference with respect to the mean of the two scores (P>0.1). CONCLUSION: The Larsen scoring of digitized X-ray images has been validated.

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Salmonella typhimurium SR-11 is extremely virulent at a dose as low as 10(5) colony forming units (cfu) when administered perorally to BALB/c mice. Utilizing mini-transposon mutagenesis, a mutant of S. typhimurium SR-11 was isolated that was unable to utilize oleate and citrate as carbon sources. This mutant, designated S. typhimurium SR-11 Fad- (Fatty acid), was found to utilize sugars under cya/crp control as sole carbon sources, suggesting that the mutation is not in either of these genes. In addition, SR-11 Fad- utilized pyruvate and succinate, but was unable to utilize either acetate or isocitrate as sole carbon source. In contrast to SR-11, SR-11 Fad- was found to be avirulent, i.e. BALB/c mice were completely healthy after oral infection with 10(9) S. typhimurium SR-11 Fad- cells. Moreover, 21 days after SR-11 Fad- infection, BALB/c mice were found to be protected against an oral challenge with 10(9) cells of S. typhimurium SR-11.

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