RESUMEN

One key task in the early fight against the COVID-19 pandemic was to plan non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the spread of the infection while limiting the burden on the society and economy. With more data on the pandemic being generated, it became possible to model both the infection trends and intervention costs, transforming the creation of an intervention plan into a computational optimization problem. This paper proposes a framework developed to help policy-makers plan the best combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and to change them over time. We developed a hybrid machine-learning epidemiological model to forecast the infection trends, aggregated the socio-economic costs from the literature and expert knowledge, and used a multi-objective optimization algorithm to find and evaluate various intervention plans. The framework is modular and easily adjustable to a real-world situation, it is trained and tested on data collected from almost all countries in the world, and its proposed intervention plans generally outperform those used in real life in terms of both the number of infections and intervention costs.

Asunto(s)

Inteligencia Artificial , COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Pandemias , Algoritmos , Aprendizaje Automático

RESUMEN

Several test function suites are being used for numerical benchmarking of multiobjective optimization algorithms. While they have some desirable properties, such as well-understood Pareto sets and Pareto fronts of various shapes, most of the currently used functions possess characteristics that are arguably underrepresented in real-world problems such as separability, optima located exactly at the boundary constraints, and the existence of variables that solely control the distance between a solution and the Pareto front. Via the alternative construction of combining existing single-objective problems from the literature, we describe the bbob-biobj test suite with 55 bi-objective functions in continuous domain, and its extended version with 92 bi-objective functions (bbob-biobj-ext). Both test suites have been implemented in the COCO platform for black-box optimization benchmarking and various visualizations of the test functions are shown to reveal their properties. Besides providing details on the construction of these problems and presenting their (known) properties, this article also aims at giving the rationale behind our approach in terms of groups of functions with similar properties, objective space normalization, and problem instances. The latter allows us to easily compare the performance of deterministic and stochastic solvers, which is an often overlooked issue in benchmarking.