RESUMEN
Increasing alcohol outlet density is well-documented to be associated with increased alcohol use and problems, leading to the policy recommendation that limiting outlet density will decrease alcohol problems. Yet few studies of decreasing problematic outlets and outlet density have been conducted. We estimated the association between closing alcohol outlets and alcohol use and alcohol-related violence, using an agent-based model of the adult population in New York City. The model was calibrated according to the empirical distribution of the parameters across the city's population, including the density of on- and off-premise alcohol outlets. Interventions capped the alcohol outlet distribution at the 90th to the 50th percentiles of the New York City density, and closed 5% to 25% of outlets with the highest levels of violence. Capping density led to a lower population of light drinkers (42.2% at baseline vs. 38.1% at the 50th percentile), while heavy drinking increased slightly (12.0% at baseline vs. 12.5% at the 50th percentile). Alcohol-related homicides and nonfatal violence remained unchanged. Closing the most violent outlets was not associated with changes in alcohol use or related problems. Results suggest that focusing solely on closing alcohol outlets might not be an effective strategy to reduce alcohol-related problems.
Asunto(s)
Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/prevención & control , Bebidas Alcohólicas/provisión & distribución , Política de Salud , Violencia/prevención & control , Adulto , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/legislación & jurisprudencia , Bebidas Alcohólicas/legislación & jurisprudencia , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Características de la Residencia , Análisis de Sistemas , Población Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Violencia/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
Taking advantage of two large, population-based, and longitudinal datasets collected after the 1999 floods in Mexico (n=561) and the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York (n=1267), we examined the notion that resilience may be best understood and measured as one member of a set of trajectories that may follow exposure to trauma or severe stress. We hypothesized that resistance, resilience, recovery, relapsing/remitting, delayed dysfunction, and chronic dysfunction trajectories were all possible in the aftermath of major disasters. Semi-parametric group-based modeling yielded the strongest evidence for resistance (no or mild and stable symptoms), resilience (initially moderate or severe symptoms followed by a sharp decrease), recovery (initially moderate or severe symptoms followed by a gradual decrease), and chronic dysfunction (moderate or severe and stable symptoms), as these trajectories were prevalent in both samples. Neither Mexico nor New York showed a relapsing/remitting trajectory, and only New York showed a delayed dysfunction trajectory. Understanding patterns of psychological distress over time may present opportunities for interventions that aim to increase resilience, and decrease more adverse trajectories, after mass traumatic events.